Malaysia's extension of MCO would worsen the MLCC supply

[Icarus_Radio]

Summary

 TrendForce, a global provider of market intelligence on technology industries, says that Malaysia's Indefinite Extension of MCO 3.0 would make MLCC shortage worse.

 

Quotes

Quote

The indefinite extension of Malaysia’s MCO (movement control order) 3.0 has posed severe challenges for the global MLCC market, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. The high-end MLCC segment, in particular, is expected to suffer the most severe shortage, and products that feature high-end MLCC, such as smartphones, notebooks, networking products, server, and 5G base station components, will likely experience a corresponding impact as well. With the imminent arrival of the traditional peak season for electronic products, ODMs may need to defer their whole-unit shipments due to potential delays in some MLCC shipments.

 

My thoughts

 MLCC is also a crucial component of graphics cards. So expect to see those cards disappear again.

 

Sources

https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20210701-10852.html

[Somerandomtechyboi]

11 minutes ago, Icarus_Radio said:

MLCC is also a crucial component of graphics cards. So expect to see those cards disappear again.

Rip

 

i guess with crypto crash well still have gpus at msrp for a short while but then the prices will prob go through the roof again

[Fasterthannothing]

12 minutes ago, Somerandomtechyboi said:

Rip

 

i guess with crypto crash well still have gpus at msrp for a short while but then the prices will prob go through the roof again

Lol what crypto crash? If you mean the dip down to 30k well that's been that way for a while and no increase in stock so highly highly doubtful.

[Moonzy]

35 minutes ago, Icarus_Radio said:

Malaysia's Indefinite Extension of MCO 3.0

 

At this rate it'll probably be extended till 2022, it ain't getting any better even during the MCO, because people are still going around and being laxed

[porina]

I have to ask, just how much of the total global MLCC manufacturing is in or significantly affected by Malaysia? Those caps are used in pretty much everything electronic. If this is a real problem, it affects everything, not just a few GPUs.

[Sauron]

I guess we're going back to software rendering

[WolframaticAlpha]

1 hour ago, Icarus_Radio said:

graphics cards

what are graphics cards? what are they? They are a relic of the past ig, when something called SMRP, no wait MSRP meant something.

 

 

 

Buy a Computer. Right now. - YouTube

 

Looks like Mr. Techtips was right after all.

[StDragon]

Apparently these shortages are cyclical going as far back as 2018 via a google search

 

https://epsnews.com/2018/08/30/component-shortages-worsen/

https://www.theburnin.com/industry/mlcc-discontinuations-extend-shortages-2019/

https://www.tti.com/content/ttiinc/en/resources/mlcc-shortage.html

 

 

[Zodiark1593]

1 hour ago, Sauron said:

I guess we're going back to software rendering

Those Epyc CPUs could probably actually do it tbh. Would be a good day for AMD if we moved back to software rendering.

[PeachGr]

If you could only explain MCO and mlcc to us first

[BuckGup]

4 hours ago, Somerandomtechyboi said:

Rip

 

i guess with crypto crash well still have gpus at msrp for a short while but then the prices will prob go through the roof again

What crypto crash are you talking about?

[leadeater]

3 hours ago, Sauron said:

I guess we're going back to software rendering

Intel's new marketing slogan: "Only Intel Inside, the only thing you can get"

[cj09beira]

1 hour ago, PeachGr said:

If you could only explain MCO and mlcc to us first

mco=no movement, aka lockdown

mlcc-multi layer ceramic capacitors

[xAcid9]

I thought many factories are not affected by current lockdown and still run as usual despite majority of daily cases came from them? 

 

Spoiler

 

[D13H4RD]

On 7/1/2021 at 11:25 PM, PeachGr said:

If you could only explain MCO and mlcc to us first

I live in Malaysia. An MCO is an abbreviation of "Movement Control Order". There are varying stages of it, with the toughest being the EMCO (Enhanced Movement Control Order), followed by the MCO, then a CMCO (Conditional Movement Control Order), and a RMCO (Recovery Movement Control Order).

[XnonXte]

Uhhhh Our neighbor do it again

[LAwLz]

On 7/1/2021 at 1:51 PM, Somerandomtechyboi said:

Rip

 

i guess with crypto crash well still have gpus at msrp for a short while but then the prices will prob go through the roof again

That's because crypto mining is not even close to the biggest contributor of the shortages and people who think it is don't know what they are talking about. 

 

There is 0 evidence that crypto miners have had any significant impact on the shortages.

 

 

Edit: I am not sure why people are reacting to this with "funny". I am serious. The whole "it's miners that are causing all the issues" is just some unverified rumor that goes against everything we know for facts. The evidence I am refering to.

1) Both Nvidia and AMD have said that mining sales are a small portion of their sales. This is not just some PR statement, it's statements from their shareholder meetings.

2) PC sales are through the roof because of Covid. Supply among regular consumers are through the roof.

3) Shipping is a nightmare right now which results in long delays for everything.

4) Sales of everything, including cars and networking equipment are extremely delayed. I order quite a lot of networking equipment and what used to have a delivery time of 3 weeks is now 3 months. Are people going to say that miners are to blame for the custom silicon shortages in firewalls as well? 

 

I just don't get how people can look around them and see extreme delays on everything from cars, firewalls, switches, even mousepads (according to Linus) and then go "yeah, it's miners that are the problem, not the reduced supply and increased demand".

It seems to me like gamers who want to get their hands on the latest graphics cards are frustrated and since it feels better to blame a person, such as a miner, than to blame the global crisis that affects everyone, they pick miners as the scapegoat. It doesn't help that the Internet creates massive echo chambers like this where a big portion of the forum has decided to blame miners (with 0 evidence I might add, unlike the evidence I have laid out here) so people parrot what everyone else have said without questioning it.

[Hassan170]

On 7/1/2021 at 8:13 PM, Moonzy said:

 

At this rate it'll probably be extended till 2022, it ain't getting any better even during the MCO, because people are still going around and being laxed

Malaysian?

On 7/1/2021 at 8:39 PM, porina said:

I have to ask, just how much of the total global MLCC manufacturing is in or significantly affected by Malaysia? Those caps are used in pretty much everything electronic. If this is a real problem, it affects everything, not just a few GPUs.

Same, I'm surprised Malaysia of all countries manufactures such critical components

On 7/3/2021 at 4:13 PM, D13H4RD said:

I live in Malaysia. An MCO is an abbreviation of "Movement Control Order". There are varying stages of it, with the toughest being the EMCO (Enhanced Movement Control Order), followed by the MCO, then a CMCO (Conditional Movement Control Order), and a RMCO (Recovery Movement Control Order).

At this point I've forgotten them all and i have not left home in a year. send help i cant find my keys.

On 7/3/2021 at 4:20 PM, XnonXte said:

Uhhhh Our neighbor do it again

shoosh singapore.

[Kisai]

On 7/1/2021 at 6:50 AM, StDragon said:

Apparently these shortages are cyclical going as far back as 2018 via a google search

 

That probably explains why some AIB's cheaped out on their cards.

 

https://videocardz.com/newz/manufacturers-respond-to-geforce-rtx-3080-3090-crash-to-desktop-issues

 

Quote

The issue is mostly related (at least from what is being reported now) to the choice of capacitors. AIBs need to follow NVIDIA guidelines to use either POSCAPs (Conductive Polymer Tantalum Solid Capacitors) – marked red on the picture below – or MLCCs (Multilayer Ceramic Chip Capacitor) – marked as green on a picture below. A combination of both is also possible and actively used on many cards (including Founders Edition). The under-specified guidelines could also be a culprit of the problem, because AIBs rely on those documents to the letter, especially when proper testing is not possible before launch.

It is worth noting that Buildzoid (video attached below) claims that these are not POSCAPs (in fact none of the RTX 30 cards use them). These are called SP-Caps.

The brands that opted for more MLCCs instead of POSCAPs are seeing fewer reports on instability issues. 

 

Here's a good question. Did AIB's cheap out more on the LHR GPU's or or on the x60/x60Ti parts? I'd like to know, because one of the decisions I made (before aborting buying any GPU at all) was at the suggestion of GN that the MLCC models should be preferred.

 

https://new.reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/izhpvs/the_possible_reason_for_crashes_and_instabilities/g6jivta/

 

Note how only one vendor (ASUS) went full MLCC.

 

[tim0901]

14 hours ago, Kisai said:

That probably explains why some AIB's cheaped out on their cards.

 

https://videocardz.com/newz/manufacturers-respond-to-geforce-rtx-3080-3090-crash-to-desktop-issues

 

 

Here's a good question. Did AIB's cheap out more on the LHR GPU's or or on the x60/x60Ti parts? I'd like to know, because one of the decisions I made (before aborting buying any GPU at all) was at the suggestion of GN that the MLCC models should be preferred.

 

https://new.reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/izhpvs/the_possible_reason_for_crashes_and_instabilities/g6jivta/

 

 

Note how only one vendor (ASUS) went full MLCC.

 

Pretty sure this was all concluded to be complete bollocks? That the different capacitors weren't to blame and the whole thing was solved with a driver update?

[WhitetailAni]

Just now, tim0901 said:

Pretty sure this was all concluded to be complete bollocks? That the different capacitors weren't to blame and the whole thing was solved with a driver update?

IIRC the issue was with capacitors. The driver update lowered clocks to prevent crashing, as the lesser capacitors weren't good enough to support the higher clocks.

I'm probably wrong though.

[tim0901]

10 minutes ago, FakeKGB said:

IIRC the issue was with capacitors. The driver update lowered clocks to prevent crashing, as the lesser capacitors weren't good enough to support the higher clocks.

I'm probably wrong though.

Found a video by Hardware Unboxed about it. Apparently the crashing didn't happen in Linux - it was a Windows only thing - and as such was almost certianly a driver issue. Testing post-patch (which was only deployed for Windows) found a minor change in freqency targets, but no change in observed, real-world core frequencies (or performance).

[Brooksie359]

On 7/3/2021 at 3:50 AM, LAwLz said:

That's because crypto mining is not even close to the biggest contributor of the shortages and people who think it is don't know what they are talking about. 

 

There is 0 evidence that crypto miners have had any significant impact on the shortages.

 

 

Edit: I am not sure why people are reacting to this with "funny". I am serious. The whole "it's miners that are causing all the issues" is just some unverified rumor that goes against everything we know for facts. The evidence I am refering to.

1) Both Nvidia and AMD have said that mining sales are a small portion of their sales. This is not just some PR statement, it's statements from their shareholder meetings.

2) PC sales are through the roof because of Covid. Supply among regular consumers are through the roof.

3) Shipping is a nightmare right now which results in long delays for everything.

4) Sales of everything, including cars and networking equipment are extremely delayed. I order quite a lot of networking equipment and what used to have a delivery time of 3 weeks is now 3 months. Are people going to say that miners are to blame for the custom silicon shortages in firewalls as well? 

 

I just don't get how people can look around them and see extreme delays on everything from cars, firewalls, switches, even mousepads (according to Linus) and then go "yeah, it's miners that are the problem, not the reduced supply and increased demand".

It seems to me like gamers who want to get their hands on the latest graphics cards are frustrated and since it feels better to blame a person, such as a miner, than to blame the global crisis that affects everyone, they pick miners as the scapegoat. It doesn't help that the Internet creates massive echo chambers like this where a big portion of the forum has decided to blame miners (with 0 evidence I might add, unlike the evidence I have laid out here) so people parrot what everyone else have said without questioning it.

To be fair mining hasn't helped the problem. Also I find the fact nvida and AMD have both had record sales and revenue during the last cryptocurrency mining craziness contradictory to the idea that mining has little impact on sales. During the last cryptocurrency mining craze the prices where super inflated as well and supply was limited as well and we were not in a global pandemic so again I find it hard to believe that it has not contributed to this issue. I will say that you are correct that there are certainly more factors at play here and the shortages likely would still be here even if mining wasn't so big right now I just think the severity of the demand issue would be less. I mean it's not like mining has any correlation to supply. 

[Kisai]

19 hours ago, Brooksie359 said:

To be fair mining hasn't helped the problem. Also I find the fact nvida and AMD have both had record sales and revenue during the last cryptocurrency mining craziness contradictory to the idea that mining has little impact on sales. During the last cryptocurrency mining craze the prices where super inflated as well and supply was limited as well and we were not in a global pandemic so again I find it hard to believe that it has not contributed to this issue. I will say that you are correct that there are certainly more factors at play here and the shortages likely would still be here even if mining wasn't so big right now I just think the severity of the demand issue would be less. I mean it's not like mining has any correlation to supply. 

https://www.pcgamesn.com/nvidia/used-graphics-card-prices-china

Quote

China’s used GPU market is flooded with RTX 3060s to RTX 3080s under MSRP

There's your proof that the miners were responsible for the prices. Alibaba has 3080's at like $400.

Quote

One seller lists 100 Nvidia RTX 3070s at a price of 2,600 RMB, which is equivalent to US$400 and lower than the $499 MSRP Nvidia set back in September last year. Meanwhile, other sellers are pushing RTX 3060 and RTX 3060 Ti cards in batches of 200, with prices of 1,900 RMB ($292) and 2,400 RMB ($369) respectively.