[rumor] nvidia is reducing shipments on purpose this holiday season to keep the street prices high.

[adarw]

Summary

as you may know Nvidia wants to increase prices, the shortage is a advantage for them, YouTuber "Morse's law is dead" has had "trusted" sources tell him that Nivida will have less ampere production in Q4. Multiple sources indicate that Nvidia H1 2022 will have a refresh possibly the SUPER series or the 4000 series making gamers and buy $400-500 4060/ 3060super's. this was planned by Nvidia, this isnt a dispute with Samsung. 

 

Quotes

Quote

nvidia is reducing shipments on purpose this holiday season to keep the street prices high,

 

 

nvidia had secured enough production from samsung to fulfill all of their orders they need to fulfill in quarter four by the end of october and that they will easily hit their sales and earnings targets for this quarter.

 

( i seriously don't wanna type anymore)

 

My thoughts

morse's law is dead has leaked multiple things and has been right most of the time. budget pc gaming is coming to a end, were never going to see $200 gpus again. i hope AMD and intel can compete with Nvidia for compitive prices but Nvida is pretty much treating aftermarket companies with something like the gpp (GeForce partner program) towards intel GPUs.

 

Sources

 

[flo_306]

a company doing shady things? what a surprise! who would have thought! 

[porina]

Not the tin foil hat rubbish again. He's been spouting that for a while, which is ignorance at best, malicious at worst.

 

If we assume for now that a new product range is being made ready, it is normal to cut back production of the outgoing product to shift resource to the new product. It does not mean a drop in production overall. Now, if they want more launch day stock, then it would imply not supplying the older product a bit earlier to stock up on the new product.

 

We could further speculate that nvidia might do a product refresh timed to match Intel's Arc launch. It feels a little short for a 40 series, and a little late for a Super refresh though.

 

I'd further guess this might only apply to certain models, and not across the whole range.

[Blademaster91]

Not sure I would call moores law is dead a "leak" but with the GPU market how it is, I wouldn't be surprised.

And the days of $200 budget GPU's has been over since the GTX 10 series, it doesn't take a "leaker" to figure that one out lol.

[tikker]

6 minutes ago, porina said:

Not the tin foil hat rubbish again. He's been spouting that for a while, which is ignorance at best, malicious at worst.

 

If we assume for now that a new product range is being made ready, it is normal to cut back production of the outgoing product to shift resource to the new product. It does not mean a drop in production overall. Now, if they want more launch day stock, then it would imply not supplying the older product a bit earlier to stock up on the new product.

 

We could further speculate that nvidia might do a product refresh timed to match Intel's Arc launch. It feels a little short for a 40 series, and a little late for a Super refresh though.

 

I'd further guess this might only apply to certain models, and not across the whole range.

Conspiracies get more clicks I guess ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ This entire situation highlights how used we have gotten to having almost anything at our fingertips. Preordering or waiting for restocks was quite common in the past for me and when something new came out you were excited to upgrade to be able to use or run it. Nowadays something selling out or being phased out is "deliberate underproduction" and having requirements is "planned obsolescence".

 

I wouldn't put it past Nvidia to do this, but with pitchforks around every corner these days I'm not sure which one's are actually pitchfork-worthy anymore.

[adarw]

1 minute ago, Blademaster91 said:

Not sure I would call moores law is dead a "leak" but with the GPU market how it is, I wouldn't be surprised.

And the days of $200 budget GPU's has been over since the GTX 10 series, it doesn't take a "leaker" to figure that one out lol.

true i guess the word i was looking for was rumor.

[porina]

2 minutes ago, tikker said:

Conspiracies get more clicks I guess ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Exactly, there's a lot of manufactured drama and conflict designed to get attention. The claim that nvidia might be cutting production of (some?) existing products might have truth to it, but the interpretation beyond this is more speculative.

 

 

While here, just to expand on my earlier thoughts on timing of nvidia refresh, GPU generations are on roughly 2 year cycles. A Super refresh would ideally be between those at around a year in. A CY22H1 product would be late for a refresh, and early for new gen. Normally when a time range is given it should be assumed to be closer to the end of that time range. You'd say H1 instead of Q2 for example, if not in Q1. Wider time frames are also used to mask not knowing, for example, if you're guessing.

 

37 minutes ago, Blademaster91 said:

And the days of $200 budget GPU's has been over since the GTX 10 series, it doesn't take a "leaker" to figure that one out lol.

$200 MSRP GPUs have been available up to current generation, but the question might be what performance you get at that price level?

 

960 $199

1060 3GB $199

1650 Super $159

1660 $219

 

If we were in normal times maybe there would be current gen lower offerings made by now, but they've probably been shelved to prioritise higher products.

 

Anyway, this had made me look around at wider rumours, and there is suggestion of an impending nvidia refresh, as well as the desktop 3050 launch. That might be the "$200" card but still sell for double that in these times. Once again, if there are new products being prepared for launch, it makes perfect sense to move production away from the old products and put it towards the new ones. nvidia will want to build up launch day stocks lest they be wrongly called a paper launch again, although it remains doubtful they'll have enough whatever they do.

[Blademaster91]

21 minutes ago, porina said:

$200 MSRP GPUs have been available up to current generation, but the question might be what performance you get at that price level?

 

960 $199

1060 3GB $199

1650 Super $159

1660 $219

 

If we were in normal times maybe there would be current gen lower offerings made by now, but they've probably been shelved to prioritise higher products.

 

Anyway, this had made me look around at wider rumours, and there is suggestion of an impending nvidia refresh, as well as the desktop 3050 launch. That might be the "$200" card but still sell for double that in these times. Once again, if there are new products being prepared for launch, it makes perfect sense to move production away from the old products and put it towards the new ones. nvidia will want to build up launch day stocks lest they be wrongly called a paper launch again, although it remains doubtful they'll have enough whatever they do

IMO, the only upgrade from a 1060 3GB is a 1660, 1650 super isn't that much of an upgrade unless 3GB is a limitation. I've kinda forgotten that the 1660 is supposed to be a $200 card, they can still be found but around $500-600.

Although it makes no sense for Nvidia to discontinue current products for a super refresh which could be even more difficult to find than current cards as a super lineup would have even more demand,  Nvidia hasn't even made enough of their current products either.

I've been in the EVGA queue for almost a year and haven't gotten an email on anything yet, now they've limited to 2 cards in the queue, I'm not expecting a chance until 4000 series comes out at this point.

1 hour ago, adarw said:

true i guess the word i was looking for was rumor.

Maybe a rumor that could possibly be a leak depending on how you look at it.

[mr moose]

This doesn't even make sense as a conspiracy.  Reducing sales in hopes it keeps product price high is like not going to work because you'll save on fuel.   Sure it might save you a few dollars now, but the wages you lose will be bigger,  likewise Nvidia may (and that's a pretty big may) get slightly more per card by doing this, but they lose so much more by not selling what they can in the meantime (not just in raw revenue from sales but also from lost customs to AMD).

 

 

 

[porina]

1 minute ago, Blademaster91 said:

Although it makes no sense for Nvidia to discontinue current products for a super refresh which could be even more difficult to find than current cards as a super lineup would have even more demand,  Nvidia hasn't even made enough of their current products either.

There ae few good reasons to keep making an older product if you have a newer product which replaces it, primarily to fulfil any existing contracts in place. People who couldn't get the old card can try for one of the newer ones. Capacity doesn't change unless the silicon gets bigger. If the rumours of finally getting a desktop 3050 are true, then it may help the lower end of the market with presumably a smaller die and thus higher volumes. The low end is also where Intel will mainly be fighting when they join the party, so nvidia getting in there with a current gen product makes sense.

[porina]

@Blademaster91 Thinking more I think I missed your point there, in part due to the way this was originally presented in thread. If we say, nvidia were making a 3070 Super, it would take away from 3070 vanilla, in a similar way the 3070 Ti did. The 3070 wouldn't be retired immediately, but just limited according to binning. However, if there was to be a 4070, then 3070 family production being cut makes perfect sense.

[leadeater]

So why would Nvidia care about higher street prices? They get nothing out of it, they sell GPU packages and memory to AIBs at whatever price they set so the street pricing effects them in absolutely no way other than AMD GPU street prices and the performance of those competing products.

 

This is a dumb rumor.

[adarw]

4 minutes ago, leadeater said:

So why would Nvidia care about higher street prices? They get nothing out of it, they sell GPU packages and memory to AIBs at whatever price they set so the street pricing effects them in absolutely no way other than AMD GPU street prices and the performance of those competing products.

 

a aruge point is that they can make their newer gpu's more expensive and gamers will still buy them bc its cheaper than street prices.

 

Edited October 15, 2021 by adarw
didnt finish it.

[x3x53530]

This is so dumb. Nvidia doesn't care about what the consumer pays for a GPU on the open market. Most consumers are buying AIB made GPUs. Nvidia gets paid by the AIB for the chip and the AIB gets paid by the wholesaler or retail chain for the completed GPU. The prices remain high not because of Nvidia's doing but by a combination of fab capacity near its limit and the high demand that allows the scalpers (sometimes called retailers) to charge higher prices than the MSRP.

 

Nvidia is like all the other fabless companies. They have to compete for wafers like everyone else. The whole problem really comes down to having too many companies trying to make smarter devices (do I really need a smart toaster or refrigerator) or wanting to have the bleeding edge node than there needs to be. Car companies are the worst offenders in this right now. They all want the latest generation chips for the highest performance and efficiency, but don't actually need them in their non electric cars. We're all just out of luck until some more fabs are built in the coming years to add more capacity overall.

[leadeater]

1 minute ago, adarw said:

a aruge point is that they can make their newer gpu's more expensive and gamers will still buy them

They can do that at any point they like, restricting supply is not necessary.

 

Nvidia: "Hey Gigabyte the new price for GA104 dies and GDDR6 memory is now $X"

Gigabyte: "Ok, here is our order"

 

Not seeing where supply restrictions is necessary. Sure Gigabyte etc could say no and not buy, but right now they won't because they can just raise their own MSRP and the graphics cards will still sell.

[mr moose]

3 minutes ago, leadeater said:

Sure Gigabyte etc could say no and not buy, but right now they won't because they can just raise their own MSRP and the graphics cards will still sell.

 

Which definitely isn't going to happen because "newsflash" there is a chip shortage and everything AIB's make (even at inflated prices) sells out. 

[Arika]

saw the title

checked the "source"

 

ignored.

[HenrySalayne]

I was under the impression Nvidia is selling GPUs and memory for a fixed price to board partners. How would Nvidia make more money by selling less GPUs to board partners?

Nvidia doesn't get a cut of the final (inflated) end-user price.

[Franck]

3 hours ago, adarw said:

hope AMD and intel can compete with Nvidia for compitive prices

Not just competitive price, alternative product too. No one has a challenger to CUDA. As a CUDA user I have no other options. Sure there are special device that exist but if you think nvidia is expensive think twice. 2020 nvidia revenu shows that 41% of it was coming from computing and networking source which is where CUDA is. If AMD and Intel could at least compete in that market that would take a big chunk and maybe attack from all angle and make a more competitive space.

[pas008]

how is this in the news area just wasted 10 mins on this and there is no logic behind it

i like rumors/leaks but seriously

[doubleagent214]

I love how little sense this makes tbh. Nvidia is not making any extra money besides on the 3070ti and 3080ti. Same for most partners. It's retail and scalpers making the money and distributors 

[Moonzy]

at this point i think if MLID is the primary source, it doesnt belong to the tech news

[Inkz]

Ah yes, Nvidia wants to sell less during the most profitable time of year so third parties who don't give them money can take it from them. 

[RejZoR]

Issue is, NVIDIA is not the one pocketing the difference and that's really what's bothering them the most. MSRP is technically their intended price for the market at which they still make a healthy profit. So, if that card with 799€ MSRP gets sold for 1500€ in the store, the difference goes into pockets of stores, not NVIDIA (or whatever AIB). It's the stores making big bucks from the inflated prices and shortages, not NVIDIA. I very much doubt NVIDIA is selling stuff at inflated prices to stores and AIB's. You can't advertise card for 799€ and then sell it for 1200€ to AIB's/stores.

[SeriousDad69]

4 hours ago, adarw said:

were never going to see $200 gpus again. i hope AMD and intel can compete with Nvidia for compitive prices

AMD did release a $200 GPU, it's called the RX 6600 and they're charging $330+ for it lol