COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING

[Andreas Lilja]

They're trying to blame Trump for that? It's not even the same drug. 

[PhantomJaguarr]

Now some of my news anchors from CBS I've been watching giving info about this pandemic are working from home.

 

Quote

There have been 213 cases of coronavirus disease among San Diego County residents as of late Monday afternoon. Additionally, there have been 17 cases involving non-residents, primarily military personnel. So far, there has been one death. The Monday numbers do not include evacuees at Miramar, as all have completed their quarantine and left.Across California there have been 1,733 cases and 27 deaths as of 11 a.m. Monday.San Diego Magazine, the venerable chronicler of local culture and “guide to the good life in San Diego,” is folding after 72 years, with April its last issue, because of the health crisis.

 

https://timesofsandiego.com/life/2020/03/23/san-diego-county-coronavirus-developments-on-monday-march-23/

[spartaman64]

Quote

BOCA RATON, Fla. (CBS12) — The Berman Law Group filed a class action federal lawsuit against the People’s Republic of China and several other Chinese government entities, alleging they mishandled the outbreak of COVID-19.

According to the law group, the lawsuit accuses the Chinese government of failing to contain the virus and allowing it to spread globally, causing it to become a costly global pandemic.

 

https://cbs12.com/news/local/boca-firm-sues-chinese-government-over-handling-of-coronavirus LUL

[Guest]

Why are you all spitting on and/or "cursing" the hydroxychloroquine treatment?

 

I do agree that I needs a VERY serious trial. I don't really at all care about Trump recommending it, in fact I've been facepalming  when I heard him prizing it. That's the best way to kill it!

Everyone talks about the small trial with the 26 patients in Marseille, which I wholehartedly agree is far from perfect. No one talks about the trials in China. No one talks about the other one that is now happening in Marseille, following the 1st one, with more than 1,000 patients.

 

Now... Let's talk of the other ones running atm:

• Remdesivir

It has just now been given the status of an Orphan drug in the US. Gilead's stocks are soaring up.

The cost of a treatment by an orphan drug ranges in the 100K per round.

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/23/gilead-sciences-coronavirus-treatment-orphan-drug-status/

Quote

The Orphan Drug Act has helped pharmaceutical industry profits soar. In 2018, the median cost for a year of treatment with an orphan drug was $98,500 compared to $5,000 for drugs that don’t have the designation, according to Gerald Posner, author of “Pharma: Greed, Lies, and the Poisoning of America.”

 

• Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine + Antibiotic

It is an old medicine.
The side effects are known but they appear mainly if you take more than 2g/day of Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine. The current treatment for Covid-19 needs ~1.2g/day.

Not everyone can take it and we know who should not take it.

The price is... anecdotical. Not expensive at all.

It's easy to be manufactured.

 

• Kaletra

HIV combinant drug (lopinavir/ritonavir).

EXPENSIVE!

Quote

The generic lopinavir/ritonavir is marginally less expensive (~$373/160ml).

The side effects are... let's say you don't want to experience them (more details in the link).

source: https://www.drugs.com/price-guide/kaletra

 

 

ALL this medicines have side effects, some more dangerous than others (Kaletra and Remdesivir are far from "inocuous").

None have been tested and there are marginally good results. They may or may not be efficient against Covid-19. Trials are in process right now.

 

So... Knowing that, why is everyone criticizing mainly Chloroquine? Why is everyone pushing Remdesivir or Kaletra? Is it really because they are "better" or is it because they are more "profitable"?

 

I would have thought that for the greater good, once we have enough conclusive data, governments and doctors would want a treatment which could save the greater number of lives, with the lowest cost.

No medicine is perfect and no medicine can save everyone.

 

 

[Eschew]

3 minutes ago, spartaman64 said:

https://cbs12.com/news/local/boca-firm-sues-chinese-government-over-handling-of-coronavirus LUL

...

...

...

[Andreas Lilja]

https://www.cnet.com/news/amazon-delays-shipments-of-nonessential-items-in-the-us-by-up-to-a-month/

 

Yo my Yeti mug is essential. 

[Canoe]

44 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Why are you all spitting on and/or "cursing" the hydroxychloroquine treatment?

Not dissing a potential treatment, but the extremely poor study, that even obscured negative results, even a death, dropping them from the results to show better numbers. So far, the anecdotal reports are both encouraging and distressing, with a bias on the encouraging. Which is why there are trials.

Until it has a proper trial, that treatment, and all of the 69+ treatments being considered, their effectiveness and safety are unknown.

With questionable patient selection, obscuring results (including serious worsening and a death) and near useless measurement of controls, that one trial falls fully under anecdotal, and questionable, and of questionable ethics.

[Canoe]

1 hour ago, VegetableStu said:

(point being they do mean the names EXACTLY (and that's not counting dosage and delivery yet))

shudda just drank the tank water...     

[homeofmew]

2 hours ago, Brooksie359 said:

What? I don't think the mortality rate is 5% in places that don't have their healthcare system overwhelmed. Anyways I currently have it and honestly it wasn't all that bad when I first got it so I can understand if people were to assume it was just a run of the mill cold. Unfortunately after about a week it has gotten worse with a fever that wasn't present for the first week. Apparently that is pretty common so I would not doubt that many more people have it than people think. Not to mention that there are alot of people who go untested because if your symptoms are mild alot of places won't test you and simply tell you to self quarantine. It is sorta a logistical nightmare for the healthcare industry because they have to make so many precautions to make sure that themselves and other patients do not get infected by the people with the virus. Unless your symptoms are really bad the risk taken by seeing a healthcare provider in person is not really worth it for the healthcare industry. 

As of CDT 2 pm 24 March 2020
413947 cases
18 568 Dead

~4.4%

 

[Canoe]

3 hours ago, Canoe said:

5 hours ago, williamcll said:

It looks like Italy is reaching the top of the curve.

Based on what?

• Italy has a Crude Fatality Rate of 9.5%.
• ...
• Using a CFR of 3.6% and 60% for lag on Deaths, the current expected infected population should be in the range of 281,343 Confirmed and would be expected to accumulate a total of 10,128 Deaths.
• ...

 

New numbers out.

69,176 Confirmed

• 6,820 Deaths
• 8,326 Recovered
• 54,034 "positive"
  • 21,937 Hospitalized
  • 3,396 Hospitalized in ICU
  • 28,697 Home Isolation

Makes for:

• Crude Fatality Rate raised to 9.9%
• the current expected infected population should be in the range of 315,741 Confirmed and would be expected to accumulate a total of 11,367 Deaths.
  • (If the final expected Case Fatality Rate was 2.05%, that population would be 554,472)
• polynominal trendline projected Deaths out to April 15 lowered from ~49,500+ to ~47,000.

[mr moose]

10 hours ago, Canoe said:

There are a number of drugs identified for investigation.

But this sounds familiar. Did that site mock people for getting excited, or mock them for getting excited about a particular study that has been highly criticized, including for:

• an extremely small sample size
• cherry picking participants, including
  • Main concerns were unequal patient inclusion in treatment vs. non-treatment group (mean age 51 vs. 37), indicating inclusion at different disease stages.
  • They stated they only included patients over age 12, but there were two 10 yo in the supplemental data.
• started with 26 people
  • results presented as percentages, not numbers - hides the low sample size
  • 20 appeared to have good results - their results were reported
  • two were lost to the trial
  • 4 of the remaining 24 worsened, went to ICU and one died
    • so they left those four out of the results
    • That's one in six worsened - was harm done?
    • One died - was harm done?
    • numbers look a lot better if you leave those out
    • standard guidance for those meds:
      • Co-adminstration should be avoided. EKG changes that could lead to cardiac arrhythmias.
    • One infected doctor subsequently tried their recommended treatment on himself. He got worse on the second day and is now in MICU.
• most of the controls had viral load qualitatively detected or the PCR was not done. Only 4 out of 16 controls had a proper measure of the viral load.
  • Without valid controls, there is no reliable indication of the 20 remaining cherry picked patients in the trial doing better, the same or worse than the controls.
• Study had false negatives in its results.
• "recovery" was based on virus amount in throat swabs.
  • However, this might not correlate well with virus load in lungs or clinical recovery.
  • Really, with or w/o this paper we are none the wiser.
• Also note three other red flags:
  1. The paper was submitted on March 16, accepted on March 17. Peer review <1 day.
  2. One of the authors is Editor in Chief of the journal in which it was published
  3. Time from ethical approval to submitted paper is shorter than described study.

That study/trial doesn't begin to meet the standards of a modern medical trial. While somewhat interesting, it cannot be relied upon. This doesn't take away those med's potential, but the study does not add any reliable information to the story.

 

There was no mention of trials other than some doctors mentioned pleasing results round the world.  The comments literally amounted to one person saying it was possible these drugs might be our saving grace should they come through.

 

I don't care about the trial or whether it meets any standards or not,  It's outright disingenuous and disgraceful belittling someone who is not a scientist/doctor or have any formal education nearing it for getting excited about what some doctors have said in a time of crisis. Correcting poor information is one thing, using it against the genuinely ignorant is another.

[3 Lions]

Why won't people follow one simple rule? 

 

 

[SpaceGhostC2C]

6 hours ago, gabrielcarvfer said:

Exactly. And I still think announcing that treatment to the public was not a great idea. People rushing to the stores, buying off drugs that are used for other diseases, self medicating, drinking aquarium cleaning products...

But- but... I want my Forsythia!!

[Blademaster91]

3 hours ago, Andreas Lilja said:

https://www.cnet.com/news/amazon-delays-shipments-of-nonessential-items-in-the-us-by-up-to-a-month/

 

Yo my Yeti mug is essential. 

Seems like essential stuff including some food items are up to 3 day shipping,  but prime video and music are still worth it IMO.

3 hours ago, spartaman64 said:

 

https://cbs12.com/news/local/boca-firm-sues-chinese-government-over-handling-of-coronavirus LUL

Yeah good luck actually suing them.

[mr moose]

6 minutes ago, Blademaster91 said:

 

Yeah good luck actually suing them.

 

For the life of me I can't understand what the driving motive is for a suit like that.  The case hinges basically on this:

 

Quote

The suit alleges that the Chinese government “knew that COVID-19 was dangerous and capable of causing a pandemic, yet slowly acted, proverbially put their head in the sand, and/or covered it up for their own economic self-interest.”

 

I mean, beyond the Chinese government even caring about the case let alone paying it any attention, they are basically going to have to prove the Chinese government has some sort of omniscience over the disease the rest of the world doesn't.

[TechyBen]

53 minutes ago, LinusTechTipsFanFromDarlo said:

Why won't people follow one simple rule? 

Spoiler

 

 

 

When people comment on the UK... I don't think they realise. Our police say "please".

Edited March 24, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[mr moose]

53 minutes ago, LinusTechTipsFanFromDarlo said:

Why won't people follow one simple rule? 

Spoiler

 

 

 

I have to be honest, I don't know what saddens me more, the selfishness of people ignoring the isolation requirements or the waste of food.  

Edited March 24, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Brooksie359]

3 hours ago, homeofmew said:

As of CDT 2 pm 24 March 2020
413947 cases
18 568 Dead

~4.4%

 

Again alot of those are due to the healthcare system being overloaded with people. When everyone is sick all at once and you dont have enough proper medical equipment and beds for everyone who needs one. Also this is completely overlooking the fact that the people who have a severe version of the virus which requires medical care are the ones being confirmed to have the virus while the people who have minor symptoms are often not getting tested or confirmed. The actual number of 

People who have gotten the virus is way higher than the number you are quoting so yeah it is not a 5% mortality rate when taking those factors into account. It looks bad from the statistics we have but there are some serious problems with those statistics and unfortunately we will likely never get to confirm all of the actual cases. 

[Brooksie359]

11 minutes ago, mr moose said:

So far no country has been able to stop the spread, if no other country can stop the spread what makes china special?

It is probably the easiest to stop the spread when it is first starting but seeing as people can show no symptoms for up to 2 weeks makes it hard to believe that containment would be possible unless they did a complete lockdown of the area as soon as it started. That being said we know way more about the virus now than we did back then so there is no way anyone would have known that a measure like that was likely necessary. 

[mr moose]

1 minute ago, Brooksie359 said:

It is probably the easiest to stop the spread when it is first starting but seeing as people can show no symptoms for up to 2 weeks makes it hard to believe that containment would be possible unless they did a complete lockdown of the area as soon as it started. That being said we know way more about the virus now than we did back then so there is no way anyone would have known that a measure like that was likely necessary. 

hindsight is always better, I find it interesting that people think they can use today's information against people back when they did not have that information. 

[WkdPaul]

Poor lost soul reply was moved to the appropriate thread (yes, we can move replies from one thread to another!! )

[Papa Linus]

Thank you. Really Thank you. Like I said Noob but want to do my part. I wouldn't have found the answers if I never stopped to ask. So I whole heartily appreciate your guidance.  

[WkdPaul]

After Netflix and YT, Microsoft is also throttling some of it's services to keep up with demand so all services stay available ;

 

https://www.zdnet.com/article/microsoft-throttles-some-office-365-services-to-continue-to-meet-demand/

 

[Canoe]

51 minutes ago, Brooksie359 said:

... people can show no symptoms for up to 2 weeks makes it hard to believe that containment would be possible unless they did a complete lockdown of the area as soon as it started. That being said we know way more about the virus now than we did back then so there is no way anyone would have known that a measure like that was likely necessary. 

a little off

People are pre-symptomatic when in incubation, typically 5.2 days, ranging two days to 14 days, outliers from hours out to 27 days, possibly 29 days.

Plus, it takes some times before there are enough cases with symptoms that make them seek care, and for those providing care to recognize that something new is going on. As in, when they thought "SARS like".  Then they have to figure out what, and how large, responding on the fly.

 

The U.S. had advance notice that the U.S. was likely seeded, but orders from on high were to not test. It took a doctor in the NW to defy that order before the U.S. detected that there clusters in the U.S.. Even then testing was delayed, while those unware they were infected were going around infecting others.

 

SARS-CoV-2 is just more contagious than others. Thank god it can't aerosol by coughing or sneezing.

 

[Canoe]

My evil twin was wondering...

1. In Wuhan and places in Hubei, once people had no more food for their pets, rather than let them starve, they started letting their cats and dogs loose so they could at least try and fend for themselves.
2. The U.S. has more privately owned tigers than there are in the wild. And a fair amount of other big cats.
3. What happens when they run out of food for them?

Could sure cut down on the people not sheltering in place.
Just curious...