I Suggest We Hold on Tightly!!! Taiwan Faces Groundwater Drought, Possibly Cutting Water Supply to Chipmakers

[CommanderAlex]

 

Summary

 

Taiwan is experiencing a water drought across the whole country, enforcing water restrictions in central Taiwan as reservoir supplies are dangerously low. Taiwan experienced a significant drop in rainwater in 2020, which was amplified by the fact that there were no typhoons that made landfall in Taiwan. TSMC believes the restrictions will not affect their production, as they will increase the usage of water from tanker trucks. 

 

Quotes

Taiwan has issued their first red alert on water supply in over six years, as water reservoir supplies are running dangerously low. Water will be cut to non-industrial areas across central Taiwan starting April 6, 2021. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) as well as Micron Technology Incorporated, have chip-manufacturing operations in central Taiwan, particularly Taichung. Taiwan's economic minister Wang Mei-hua stated that they will cut water supply to areas of Taichung, Miaoli, and Changhua by 15%. Tap water will also be suspended in these areas for two days per week, but will not apply to industries. 

Quote

"While Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Micron Technology Inc. both have chip-making operations in Taichung, Wang said the restrictions would not affect their production. TSMC’s headquarters further north in Hsinchu has been spared further restrictions for now."

 

Wang Yi-feng, the deputy director-general of Taiwan's Water Resources Agency, stated, 

Quote

"The scope of the water-saving plan does include the science parks in Taichung and Miaoli. We would advise those companies that are within the scope that could face a two-day water-outage to reserve water or mobilize water trucks in advance."

 

There are other semiconductor fabrication companies in Taiwan, such as AUO, Winbond, Innolux, and GlobalWafers, whom of which have factories in Taiwan. If the drought becomes bad enough, they can affect their manufacturing capabilities, worsening the global chip shortage. 

 

Water level capacity at Taiwan's reservoirs are the following: 

• Shimen     reservoir - 49.13%
• Te-Chi       reservoir - 10.19%
• Tsengwen reservoir -15.22%

The Shimen reservoir in northern Taiwan is their largest water catchment reservoir.

 

 

Gokul Hariharan, managing director and co-head of Asia technology, media and telecom research at JPMorgan, stated that the water shortage around the second quarter of every year is quite common and coincides with semiconductor manufacturers ramping up chip production. Taiwan's seasonal rain and replenishment of reservoirs happen towards the end of Q2 (May-June) or in the summer of Q3. Hariharan believes that production won't stop, 

Quote

“I would say it doesn’t seem like companies are going to have to stop production as things stand, they are running at about 100% utilization right now and I think we’re not really looking at huge capacity expansion this year,”

Taiwan believes that the tech industry has enough water to last until May 2021. 

 

My thoughts

 

Wow!!! Can it get any worse??? I feel bad for all of those that are wanting to upgrade their gaming rigs or just need new components in general. Hopefully, the water supply crisis in Taiwan improves and does not affect semiconductor manufacturing, or else the chip shortage will get very bad in an already strained market. Their predictions on the water supply crisis not affecting chip manufacturing during a time semiconductor manufacturing is at 100% will "likely" not stop production, but let's see how this will pan out. 

 

Sources

 

https://www.techspot.com/news/89062-taiwan-introduces-further-water-restrictions-amid-drought-potentially.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/taiwan-raises-red-alert-over-water-cuts-supply-for-chipmakers

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/taiwan-water-shortage-president-says-to-brace-for-a-shortage.html

[Fnige]

Pfft, they have a whole ocean around them. It should be completely fine. /s

 

Spoiler

Actually now im wondering if ocean water can actually work

 

[Albal_156]

8 minutes ago, SlimyPython said:

Pfft, they have a whole ocean around them. It should be completely fine. /s

 

  Hide contents

Actually now im wondering if ocean water can actually work

 

The method to make it work is called desalination and thats very energy intensive to remove the salt and other things from the water using evaporation or expensive filters. Evaporation also creates distilled water so you'd need to put things like calcium back into the water so it can be healthy for people. As we go forward desal. is going to employed heavily though as we face global freshwater shortages and scarcity in some places.

[Luxzio22]

Seems like a good time for a fire....

[asquirrel]

3 hours ago, SlimyPython said:

Pfft, they have a whole ocean around them. It should be completely fine. /s

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Actually now im wondering if ocean water can actually work

 

With enough nuclear power, anything is possible. But, yea, basically, at the scale they need water, you'd need a bunch (10-20) nuclear reactors (so maybe 3-4 plants; 1 reactor = ~1.5 GWe, 1 plant = 4-6 reactors) just for desalination. The plants would desalinate in two ways:

1. Generate energy and desalinate that way

2. Use the heat from their condensers to desalinate even more water.

 

But, that requires building a nuclear power plant, which the world generally frowns upon because light water reactors are *kinda* stupid. Thanks Admiral Rickover! -.-

 

I don't have any particular love for China, but I truly wish them the best with their LFTR designs, and I also wish anyone who wants to build *any* molten salt / liquid metal reactor well. Right now, I think the most realistic path forward for safe nuclear power is actually a uranium-based molten salt reactor. But that's also me living in a world where nuclear proliferation isn't a problem. Sigh. If we'd just stop trying to murder each other with radiation and just make power with it, we could do so much so safely.

[Kisai]

3 hours ago, Albal_156 said:

The method to make it work is called desalination and thats very energy intensive to remove the salt and other things from the water using evaporation or expensive filters. Evaporation also creates distilled water so you'd need to put things like calcium back into the water so it can be healthy for people. As we go forward desal. is going to employed heavily though as we face global freshwater shortages and scarcity in some places.

Apparently this is one of the more viable uses for nuclear power, since nuclear turns water into steam, so theoretically you could just add a condenser to the steam output to get the clean desalinized, deionized water that would not be terribly suitable for drinking but fine for industrial use.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2019/07/14/megadroughts-and-desalination-another-pressing-need-for-nuclear-power/?

 

Reverse osmosis is mostly used as a filtration technique and is unsuitable since the filtering has to be disposed of as well.

 

Both problems still result with a brine which needs to be dumped somewhere. Now... there is a market for salt, particularly sea salt.

 

 

[jagdtigger]

6 hours ago, Albal_156 said:

thats very energy intensive to remove the salt and other things from the water using evaporation

Just put the water into a black barrel and let the sun do its thing.....

[porina]

3 hours ago, Kisai said:

Reverse osmosis is mostly used as a filtration technique and is unsuitable since the filtering has to be disposed of as well.

 

Both problems still result with a brine which needs to be dumped somewhere. Now... there is a market for salt, particularly sea salt.

I still have a RO filter at home for my previous hobby of marine fishkeeping. Tap water is not pure enough for that use, and I'd guess it also wouldn't be for semiconductor manufacture.

 

Just using a single RO filter removes around 95% on average of whatever goes in. It depends on the other stuff in the water, some things are more effectively removed, some less. The outputs are then the filtered water, and the "waste" water, which is essentially more concentrated than whatever the source was. If used for desalination, there is no major problem with the waste going back to the sea. It is literally just a more concentrated form. Might be best to site any such operation in an area with water flow so the concentration doesn't build up locally to the plant. RO is not very volume efficient. For each unit of filtered water you obtain, you will obtain many units of waste. That might actually be an advantage here since it prevents the waste from getting much more concentrated. Normally for freshwater sources, the waste is still fine to be filtered for some more generations before it gets too concentrated. On that note, I'm not sure if there is a maximum concentration for the input to RO before it essentially gets blocked. It might take a filter optimised for sea water where salinity is around 35ppt or 3.5%. I'm not sure of the standards for drinking water, but a single pass might be enough for that, especially if diluted further by other water sources.

 

Big downsides to operating RO filters are cost and speed. The filters themselves have a finite life and will need replacing. I have no idea if they can be recycled easily. Water flow through them isn't great. Home systems are typically measured in gallons per day, and to get that rate you need a good pressure so pumps will likely be involved. Also as said they're not pure water output. Normally for fishkeeping the final cleanup is done through deionisation resin filters. Again, these are not cheap and have a limited life.

 

For drinking water, other filters to ensure biological safety may also need to be employed.

[Moonzy]

is it fair to say that if you wish to profit from this news, grab a GPU now and sell later when the shortage is even higher?

 

7 hours ago, SpiderMan said:

Water will be cut to non-industrial areas across central Taiwan starting April 6, 2021. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) as well as Micron Technology Incorporated, have chip-manufacturing operations in central Taiwan, particularly Taichung. Taiwan's economic minister Wang Mei-hua stated that they will cut water supply to areas of Taichung, Miaoli, and Changhua by 15%. Tap water will also be suspended in these areas for two days per week, but will not apply to industries. 

shut down the factories if it's gonna affect the water supply to the general public...?

idk how manufacturing > essential items, but i guess they weighted the economic impact, which is what bean counters do

[jagdtigger]

7 minutes ago, Moonzy said:

idk how manufacturing > essential items, but i guess they weighted the economic impact, which is what bean counters do

If you have to get water in bottles in your local shop that is only inconvenient, if your country has a busted economy and the money is basically worth so little that you can plaster the walls with it that is a disaster. Take your pick which one is better.

[Rym]

Breaking news, new law of physics causes chips to disappear from existence. Chip drought expected to end by 2050. More news at 11.

 

At this point we'll get info saying the sky being blue makes chip shortage worse. Hilarious.

[Bombastinator]

12 hours ago, SlimyPython said:

Pfft, they have a whole ocean around them. It should be completely fine. /s

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Actually now im wondering if ocean water can actually work

 

“Water water everywhere but ner’ a drop to drink” was the old phrase from tall ships.  I think it’s even in a poem or something.  Became less true when industrial level desalinization became a thing.  It’s in place in Israel.  Was developed by the US.  Might be useful in this situation, I don’t know.  

Edited March 28, 2021 by Bombastinator

[Moonzy]

53 minutes ago, Rym said:

At this point we'll get info saying the sky being blue makes chip shortage worse. Hilarious.

sky is blue = no cloud = no rain... so... uhh...

 

monsoon season is coming in may, so hope situation improves then

[soldier_ph]

I'm now saving up for my upcoming rig which I had planned to be able to build in like October, good thing I was able to score a Palit Dual RTX 3060. But in the meantime I'm very happy with my Ryzen 4800H + RTX 2060 6GB Refresh Laptop. This water Shortage and the fact that the Evergiven is stuck in the Suez Channel will make the Hardware shortage situation only worse. 

 

@SpiderMan Also good write up !

[Bombastinator]

1 hour ago, Rym said:

Breaking news, new law of physics causes chips to disappear from existence. Chip drought expected to end by 2050. More news at 11.

 

At this point we'll get info saying the sky being blue makes chip shortage worse. Hilarious.

I think the deal is because we’re at the bottom of of the curve and there isn’t any padding even things that wouldn’t normally have a significant effect now do.  100% is very different than even 98%.  The impression I’m getting is you think the shortage is a manufactured thing and isn’t real.  I don’t know.  My hope is that the US federal government is looking into that one and if they find fakery they’ll call it out.  

[Bombastinator]

54 minutes ago, soldier_ph said:

I'm now saving up for my upcoming rig which I had planned to be able to build in like October, good thing I was able to score a Palit Dual RTX 3060. But in the meantime I'm very happy with my Ryzen 4800H + RTX 2060 6GB Refresh Laptop. This water Shortage and the fact that the Evergiven is stuck in the Suez Channel will make the Hardware shortage situation only worse. 

 

@SpiderMan Also good write up !

The evergiven thing is pretty annoying.  Suez Canal blockages have cause major political upheaval in the past.  Not for a long time though.

[CommanderAlex]

21 minutes ago, soldier_ph said:

I'm now saving up for my upcoming rig which I had planned to be able to build in like October, good thing I was able to score a Palit Dual RTX 3060. But in the meantime I'm very happy with my Ryzen 4800H + RTX 2060 6GB Refresh Laptop. This water Shortage and the fact that the Evergiven is stuck in the Suez Channel will make the Hardware shortage situation only worse. 

 

@SpiderMan Also good write up !

Thanks a lot!!! I try my best and I'm getting the hang of writing these up . 

 

Hopefully, the water crisis does not come to the worse case scenario. 

[Letgomyleghoe]

14 hours ago, SlimyPython said:

Pfft, they have a whole ocean around them. It should be completely fine. /s

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Actually now im wondering if ocean water can actually work

 

not for drinking and likely not for manufacturing, salt water is highly, highly corrosive. 

[thechinchinsong]

12 hours ago, asquirrel said:

With enough nuclear power, anything is possible. But, yea, basically, at the scale they need water, you'd need a bunch (10-20) nuclear reactors (so maybe 3-4 plants; 1 reactor = ~1.5 GWe, 1 plant = 4-6 reactors) just for desalination. The plants would desalinate in two ways:

1. Generate energy and desalinate that way

2. Use the heat from their condensers to desalinate even more water.

 

But, that requires building a nuclear power plant, which the world generally frowns upon because light water reactors are *kinda* stupid. Thanks Admiral Rickover! -.-

 

I don't have any particular love for China, but I truly wish them the best with their LFTR designs, and I also wish anyone who wants to build *any* molten salt / liquid metal reactor well. Right now, I think the most realistic path forward for safe nuclear power is actually a uranium-based molten salt reactor. But that's also me living in a world where nuclear proliferation isn't a problem. Sigh. If we'd just stop trying to murder each other with radiation and just make power with it, we could do so much so safely.

 In Taiwan, it might actually make less sense due to their small land area and the risk of typhoons/earthquakes damaging nuclear power plants (even if the fear is largely trivial with newer designs). Mainland China and larger continental countries like the US, Russia, Canada, and Australia I could see easily investing in long term a nuclear baseline with the newest generations of reactors, but for smaller countries and those without the expertise and/or funding for nuclear, it might not make much sense.

[Bombastinator]

8 minutes ago, thechinchinsong said:

 In Taiwan, it might actually make less sense due to their small land area and the risk of typhoons/earthquakes damaging nuclear power plants (even if the fear is largely trivial with newer designs). Mainland China and larger continental countries like the US, Russia, Canada, and Australia I could see easily investing in long term a nuclear baseline with the newest generations of reactors, but for smaller countries and those without the expertise and/or funding for nuclear, it might not make much sense.

Nuclear power went extremely poorly in Japan which is a fairly nearby nation.  Taiwan is basically a big lump of basalt so it’s a bit more tectonically stable. China has had a lot of quakes recently though.  It has some weird political stuff between itself, the US and mainland China which themselves may take nuclear power off the table. This particular type of water shortage is apparently a moderately regular thing there. 

[Derangel]

TSMC and their competitors will buy water from other countries and have it shipped in for use in their factories. The drought probably won't have much effect on manufacturing volume, but it could very well effect price.

[captain_to_fire]

20 hours ago, asquirrel said:

I don't have any particular love for China

Which China are you talking about? Is it: 

: People’s Republic of China

: Republic of China 

Both have claim to the entire mainland and its surrounding islands. 

[asquirrel]

8 hours ago, thechinchinsong said:

 In Taiwan, it might actually make less sense due to their small land area and the risk of typhoons/earthquakes damaging nuclear power plants (even if the fear is largely trivial with newer designs). Mainland China and larger continental countries like the US, Russia, Canada, and Australia I could see easily investing in long term a nuclear baseline with the newest generations of reactors, but for smaller countries and those without the expertise and/or funding for nuclear, it might not make much sense.

Eh, Japan has had nuclear power for decades and been fine. Fukushima happened largely due to:

1. Operator greed

2. Regulatory capture (It's common practice for CEOs to take high paying jobs with regulatory bodies after they serve a few years as CEOs. This is bad. Very, very bad.)

3. Lack of upgrades / maintenance / implementation of best practices/lessons learned from other worldwide nuclear incidents. For example, the Fukushima reactors didn't have the hydrogen vent pipes required by law in all US reactors after Three Mile Island.

 

Taiwan currently has no plans to build new nuclear specifically because of Fukushima, but I think that will get rolled back because they figured out pretty quick that they can't just not have nuclear power. They literally cannot afford to lose it.

 

In terms of density, a nuclear site is physically smaller than a coal plant of the same generating capacity, so, if anything, nuclear is a better use of land. Waste storage is a problem until you start building fast spectrum breeder reactors that can burn that waste as fuel. The problem with fast spectrum reactors is that they are also really really good at making nuclear bomb material. Which the world generally frowns on (see aforementioned rant on 'why can't we stop trying to kill each other with radiation...')

 

22 minutes ago, captain_to_fire said:

Which China are you talking about? Is it: 

: People’s Republic of China

: Republic of China 

Both have claim to the entire mainland and its surrounding islands. 

Great question. So Taiwan is one country, and China is another. I understand China doesn't see it that way, and gets super mad if anyone talks about Taiwan being its own thing, but frankly, they can suck my left nut.

[StDragon]

20 hours ago, Kisai said:

Apparently this is one of the more viable uses for nuclear power, since nuclear turns water into steam, so theoretically you could just add a condenser to the steam output to get the clean desalinized, deionized water that would not be terribly suitable for drinking but fine for industrial use.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2019/07/14/megadroughts-and-desalination-another-pressing-need-for-nuclear-power/?

 

Reverse osmosis is mostly used as a filtration technique and is unsuitable since the filtering has to be disposed of as well.

 

Both problems still result with a brine which needs to be dumped somewhere. Now... there is a market for salt, particularly sea salt.

 

 

Seems to me that Taiwan could use a few US carriers to supply water; being nuclear and all. Perfect timing!

[StDragon]

10 hours ago, Bombastinator said:

The evergiven thing is pretty annoying.  Suez Canal blockages have cause major political upheaval in the past.  Not for a long time though.

Get ready for another toilet paper shortage.