corona virus

[PlayStation 2]

Huntsville, Alabama - seems to be only one confirmed case here in the County. 

Many non-grocery retailers are not doing great right now (me and @pinksnowbirdie saw this firsthand lol) and many grocery stores are being raided of toilet paper and chicken. 

My work is doing absolutely terribly right now in terms of business. Rumor has it that we might close down temporarily very soon.

The Governor of Alabama ordered all schools to shut down if memory serves, but I know Huntsville City is closed for now and the University of Alabama (all of its chains, including Birmingham and Huntsville) are closed for now.

[CarlBar]

On 3/17/2020 at 6:22 PM, Master Disaster said:

Just an FYI, you mentioned deaths as a metric, not me.

Spoiler

 

I think theres a misunderstanding between us. I won't debate that infection rate & death rate statistics aren't muddy, they're about as clear as a BoJo the Clown statement. There is however clear evidence that mass testing, isolation of anyone who tests positive or anyone who shows symptoms and social distancing all work to stop the spread as long as you get it done quickly enough. Look at the infection rates of places that didn't act early and compare it to the ones that did. I understand the infection rate figures aren't exactly accurate but the trend is obvious, if you catch it early enough you can stop it from spreading on mass.

 

The question isn't about if its possible to stop it, its about if you want to stop it. I watched a very interesting video yesterday about how viruses survive and return every year and its to do with environmental DNA. Essentially once a virus spreads enough around any given location the actual location starts to build up DNA. Once it gets everywhere it can its almost inevitable that some of it will build up in a place where it can survive long term. Summer happens and 99% of the DNA is killed however that remaning 1% stays alive and once Winter rolls back around someone picks it back up and the cycle begins again. I guessing the Italians, Spanish, Germans, French & our own Government have decided that this thing is going to turn into a seasonal disease and are wanting to expose us to it now (at least as much as possible) so when next year rolls around it won't hit us half as badly AKA herd immunity.

 

I also genuinely beleive that money is involved in this decision. IMO they've concluded that this is probably going to cause another global recession (and TBH it probably will) and if they can keep us spending money as much as possible throughout this we might not end up in such a deep hole on the other side.

 

Lastly China have beaten it, yesterday they reported less than 10 cases in the entire country (and some of those were imported), unfortunately its not something that anywhere except Russia or North Korea could emulate. China went HARDCORE, literally dragging anybody with a temperature (including all family and anybody else in the house) away in vans and containing them in makeshift facilities. They were also welding up doors on entire blocks of flats and boarding up houses while people were inside. If reports are to be belived they weren't even collecting the dead and were leaving people locked in houses with corpses for days.

 

That said though, the WHO have said they're keeping a close eye on China as they ramp things back up because its not impossible that they'll get a second wave.

 

Our governments response to this has either been, frankly selfish and very dangerous or brilliant. We wont discover which that is until me make it to the other side. If next Winter this thing does return then anywhere thats done hard lockdown this time around will get hit hard.

 

 

 

I wouldn't trust anything coming out of china via official sources on the scale of the issue there. They've been caught flat out lying repeatedly. I'd wait till unofficial sources confirm it, and they tend to lag behind. it's also exceedingly unlikely they won;t suffer a resurge at some point. Until and unless we get a mass vaccination deployed worldwide against this thing it's going to be like every other infectious disease, there's going to continue to be cases bumping around in low numbers globally on an indefinite basis. Herd immunity will get it down to really low levels, (as is also the case with other diseases), but it won't eliminate it and the moment china lowers it's border restrictions someone is going to get in and infect an area that hasn't got herd immunity and they'll have another epidemic on their hands. thats the issue with a total lockdown, it does a very good job of dead ending things, (because it prevents spread through friends family and neighbour,s which is the main method of spread even without a lockdown for the majority of diseases), but it prevents herd immunity completely.

 

You can see a variant of the above in action with anti-vaxxers and renewed outbreaks of measles, mumps, TB, e.t.c. as a result of this. Diseases completely eradicated i first world countries amongst non-imports have returned to showing up in low amounts amongst the general population as soon as any tiny percentage stopped getting vaccinated.

 

Also that thing you read about the remaining virus claiming thats why some virus come back in he winter. Complete codswallop, there's no accepted reason for why and not all viruses peak in the winter, some peak in the spring or summer or autumn. Any article claiming so and so happens and this is why X is seasonal is making at best an educated guess that hasn't yet been scientifically proven. We don't even know yet if Coronavirus is seasonal. 

 

Lastly i want to clear somthing up in case it's got miscommunicated. I never said that a lockdown wasn't warranted at the right time but a lockdown dosen;t stop all forms of spread of the virus and upto a certain point in the level of infection the spread is driven primarily by things the lockdown doesn't stop unless it's completely draconian, because people will still need to go out for groceries, there will still be some contact with friends, neighbours, and close family, and it's through this klater group of contacts that most diseases even in a non-lockdown state do the bulk of their spreading. So until the things the lockdown most strongly suppresses, (Social/School/Work) become statistically significant drivers of the rate of spread a lockdown isn't going to have any measurable effect, (and again this is exactly what the experts own simulations show/ed). You also have to consider that the lockdown is going to be most tightly obeyed early in the lockdown, lockdown too early and people will be starting to break it for reasons that aren't really essential right as things get to their worst. A lockdown works for a whole bunch of reasons, implement it too early and few if any of those are actually relevant to the spread of things and your lockdown dosen;t overly hurt the virus. But by shutting down things like the ability of the elderly to get support from their friends and family, it creates just as or more dangerous situations. This is what i've been arguing about from the start, most of the hysteria i see, (and i apologise if i've projected onto you), has been about how a lockdown is automatically allways a good thing in all circumstances and should be done ASAP. When the reality is until a certain tipping point it's either in effect or outright harmful to implement it.

 

On 3/17/2020 at 9:02 PM, Cora_Lie said:

*sigh*

 

You can't read the document I gave the link to and only take what you like

It is also written:

Which means? Your NHS (and the US HCS) will be crushed down and you'll be left with... nothing but your tears to cry and most possibly ~250K deaths (in the UK).

And also:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/u-k-realized-its-coronavirus-plan-could-kill-over-100-000.html

Of course, it's a prediction so the exact numbers can vary and the circumstances are continuously evolving. I'll just remind you that your national BoJo has exactly the same problem that american national Trump: neither of them ever accepted to face responsability of their own stupidity and (criminal) decisions.

France's HCS is already almost at its limit.

 

This is really a test to our systems/civilizations and even more to our populations...

The scene that was posted regarding Florida, the Floridians and the beaches is something we also had in France, and even in Portugal... They are under measures of social distancing and they all went to the beaches. The government even made announcements on the TV and radio regarding that...

It's just

Me? I call that Darwinian Selection. You (general "you") know you should do it (social distancing), you know why, it has been explained to you, you have seen what happened in China and you still do it? Instant karma! You deserve what will happen.

 

 

 

Neither can you. They state explicitly that locking down to hard and too early is bad and they explicitly show that locking down before a certain point in the spread has the same effect as doing nothing. You can''t weasel out of this, (if you'd look at graph 2 you'd also note that no matter what is done it will exceed capacity, a lockdown isn't going to have any effect on this).

 

Once again i am not saying we shouldn;t lockdown when the time is right, (and the government now feels where at that point), but that locking down too early provides no benefit vs coronavirus but creates enormous issues in other area's.

 

Anyway got a couple of pages to catch up on.

Edited March 19, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Donut417]

The big 3 auto makers will be shutting down for a time. Details will be released later today. My employer let go all temps and I’d expect full blown employees like me will be laid off by the end of this week or early next week. But nothing official has been said. I’m cool with a few weeks off, if it stops the spread. 

[Guest]

Luxembourg City, Luxembourg, Europe ( )

We are in total lock down.

Only movements authorized: to and from work (if you have an administrative authorization), shopping for food, pharmacy, doctor.
All education places closed. At first only until March 27th, as of today extended until April 20th.

Restaurants, and all cultural places are closed. Playing grounds are forbidden.

Police received instructions: anyone without a good reason to be out of home will get a 145€ fine.

 

It all started last Thursday! It's surreal... I saw it coming for a few weeks, but even so. It all happened so fast :-S

 

I'm not afraid, I'm not scared. I'm just amazed at how people are able to create stories to justify what is happening...

Like the latest conspiration theory about SARS-CoV-2: The Pasteur Intitut created it and some foreigh power stole it and it went out of control... 
And some people believe THAT??? Really??? *sigh*

[IkeaGnome]

Alaska.

Finally hit here. 6 cases in 1 week. We didn't get any cases when the plane came though with the over seas evacs. Still no news on us having to avoid groups over certain sizes or anything though.

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/2020/03/18/new-covid-19-cases-identified-in-ketchikan-anchorage-and-fairbanks-marking-6-confirmed-cases-in-alaska/

Spoiler

The state of Alaska is also prohibiting public dine-in service at all restaurants, bars, breweries, cafes and similar establishments, and closing all entertainment facilities, “including theaters, gyms and fitness centers, bowling alleys and bingo halls,” according to the state’s health mandate. The prohibition takes effect at 5 p.m. Wednesday and ends at 5 p.m. April 1. Under the dine-in restrictions, salad bars and buffets are also closed to self-service.

 

[Andreas Lilja]

First death in Québec. Woman in retirement home. 

[Guest]

Some good news, among all the not so good news

 

In France

• I've already mentioned the advancement of a cure in France and China with the Chloroquine.
• Another good news: Sanofi offered to give away Plaquenil in sufficient quantities to treat 300K patients.
• LVMH is going to manufacture hand sanitizers in their perfume manufactures and give them away to the government to be distributed to the hospitals and health workers.
• Tereos (sugar industry) and Pernod-Ricard are going to manufacture hand-sanitizers and produce the needed alcohol for free.

 

In Australia

• A team of researchers managed to map the immune response of the body confronted to CoVid-19. That will be very helpful in order to find a treatment protocol.

 

Now, some not so good news:

In the US

• A MUST READ : U.S. Virus Plan Anticipates 18-Month Pandemic and Widespread Shortages
• There won't be enough respirators, and there is no way to get enough of them quickly enough. Patents are also in the way...

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Guest

[SansVarnic]

27 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Chloroquine.

Wonderful ... I am allergic to this.  

[Guest]

1 minute ago, SansVarnic said:

Wonderful ... I am allergic to this.  

All the molecules derivated of Chloroquine or only Chloroquine?

[SansVarnic]

22 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

All the molecules derivated of Chloroquine or only Chloroquine?

It was issued out to my unit when we went to El Salvador for Malaria about 14 years ago, my reaction to the drug was not pleasant.

It was in pill form. *edit - I don't recall exactly what the prescription was, it was to long ago and since then I have had my wonderful little medical alert red dog tag with "Allergy to Chloroquine" to wear in addition to my allergy to Benadryl  (if that helps any).

Edited March 18, 2020 by SansVarnic

[FakeCIA]

@Tony Tony Chopper There are alot of inaccuracies in what you just posted, which is ok, but link your source. It doesn't matter if there is discharge or what kind. Regardless of how dry your throat is, there will still be mucus, your body naturally produces it. COVID-19 doesn't suddenly change that. Not all viruses are killed by heat and drinking hot tea can mess with your body's natural defense of using a fever. Water at any temperature is fine, your body will take care of the rest. Sitting in the sun or staying outside for long periods of time, especially in Arizona where temps get to 120F, is not necessarily a good thing either. Sun exposure can cause dehydration and there are pollutants already in the air that can worsen COVID-19 by introducing foreign material into your lungs. Iso-betadine in it's base form is toxic to humans in large doses, so gargling your throat with it is a very bad idea. That is not it's purpose. Mouthwash and regular toothpaste is a far safer and better option. Drinking water every 15 minutes to "flush" the virus into your stomach is not how exposure works.

[FakeCIA]

7 minutes ago, Tony Tony Chopper said:

 

Some one on whatsapp send me it, so if no idea what the source is.

Someone sent you an unverified piece of text on WhatsApp that contains misleading and potentially harmful information? Ok.

 

[Bartholomew]

Just now, Tony Tony Chopper said:

 

Some one on whatsapp send me it, so if no idea what the source is.

Im also in NL, this is well know facebook, whatsapp etc. msg which has many many mentioned "sources/origins".

 

Variants can be seen here: https://nos.nl/artikel/2327023-warm-water-knoflook-en-cocaine-veel-fake-berichten-over-corona.html 

 

Alongside with "cocain" as a cure...

 

@FakeCIA has given you the correct replies (on both accounts )

[Guest]

@Tony Tony Chopper

When I read your post, it really makes me wonder what is the purpose of us trying to post real GOOD reliable information in this thread...

 

And NO, people, PLEASE do NOT pass around these information... It's a very wonderful and entertaining mix of true and false information... Not kidding...

 

Running nose = NOT Coronavirus
This has already been stated several times here. A dry cough = yes! Running nose = No!

 

Drinking = good
Yes, of course! It is always better to be hydrated! It's always better to have a drink at room temperature. A cold drink provokes a body reaction of retraction. A hot drink, like tea is better than chocolate (milk = inflammation body response). A hot tea will hasten the circulation in the body ,  which is also a good thing: toxin elimination.
edited to add: A hot tea will also burn your tongue!

 

Coronavirus and Heat

This hoax of Coronavirus not liking heat or at 26-27°C is very well spread. It is not the case. If it were then it wouldn't survive on surfaces for more than 4 days in a tempered atmosphere.
No, spreading your clothes outside "in the sun" won't kill the virus. Opening your windows, having air circulating in your home, getting some fresh air, will reduce the concentration of germs in the room. Clean/wash your clothes, that is a good thing.

 

Hygiene

Wash your hands OFTEN, take a shower, a bath regularly, brush your teeth (NOT with bleach or disinfectant) OFTEN.

Do some gargarism if you want. DO NOT USE ISO-BETADIN FOR THAT!!!!!

Cleaning yourself is ALWAYS a good thing.

 

Hold your breath test

NO! Holding your breath for 10 or 20 seconds won't tell you if you are infected or not.

Doing some mildexercises everyday at home (Tai Chi, Pilates, Aerobics, Stretching, etc.) can and will show you if your condition is deteriorating or not.

But do not hold your breath on not breathing... (pun intended).

 

Edited to add

@FakeCIA was quicker than me

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Guest

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Bartholomew said:

Alongside with "cocain" as a cure...

Yeah... Sure... I also read "somewhere" that drinking pure chlorine will also kill the virus!

 

Sure... It will definitely kill! No question about that...

[FakeCIA]

@Tony Tony Chopper

We're not bashing on you and this applies to everybody here, but DO NOT rely on sources through Facebook, Twitter, and other similar sites. If your source is from a first-person account through these sites, while it may be useful, take it with a grain of salt. All my sources are reputable agencies like the World Health Organization and the (real) Central Intelligence Agency. For my first-person accounts, I'm referring to LiveLeak, which I don't recommend if you don't have great security and are not a mature audience. But, quit spreading misinformation. If you are unsure of whether something is true or not, do a little extra research before immediately posting. It took me five minutes to look up iso-betadine and see how toxic it is to humans in large doses. It's not a huge effort to look something up. As an added note, if you can't find something or you are unsure about COVID-19, send the piece of text to me in a PM or whoever else is involved in this thread. I'd be happy to factcheck and provide feedback. If you are unsure of whether it should be posted at all, ask a mod. Everybody here is happy to help each other.

[straight_stewie]

2 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

There won't be enough respirators, and there is no way to get enough of them quickly enough. Patents are also in the way...

Do you have a source for this?

Trump said this morning that he will enact the Defense Production act on this issue, and Pence said that, in the mean time, there are currently some 10,000 units (this number is from my memory of his statements this morning, so I apologize if it's off a little) currently warehoused but not in hospitals.

[IkeaGnome]

Here's a couple links with a couple of the other prominent FALSE facts so far. Might not hurt for more people to read these.

 

WHO COVID-19 Myth busters with nice easy to read graphics. 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters

Harvard Medical article, which has a startling one. Apparently people are talking about drinking bleach to "cure" themselves. People will go to strange measures when they're afraid. 

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/be-careful-where-you-get-your-news-about-coronavirus-2020020118801

 

As far as the mask situation popping up, here's what the WHO has to say on medical masks for COVID-19.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/documents/advice-on-the-use-of-masks-2019-ncov.pdf

Two large take aways from their article. 

Spoiler

Wearing a medical mask is one of the prevention measures to limit spread of certain respiratory diseases, including 2019- nCoV, in affected areas. However, the use of a mask alone is insufficient to provide the adequate level of protection and other equally relevant measures should be adopted. If masks are to be used, this measure must be combined with hand hygiene and other IPC measures to prevent the human-tohuman transmission of 2019-nCov.

 

AND

 

Cloth (e.g. cotton or gauze) masks are not recommended under any circumstance.

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Voluspa
Forgot to add the Harvard article link.

[FakeCIA]

https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2116862/hospital-ships-other-dod-assets-prepare-for-coronavirus-response/

 

The United States Department of Defense has begun prepping two US Navy hospital ships to respond to the COVID-19 cases in various counties on the east coast. The two responding ships are the USNS Comfort and USNS Mercy. There is a shortage of staff, however, so the medical team manning these ships will be primarily combat personnel. US Army and US Air Force medical facilities are also in use or are being converted.

 

The total amount of military personnel with confirmed cases of COVID-19: 49 Standard Military, 14 Civilian Contractors, 19 Military Family Members, and 7 Private Contractors.

 

https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2116570/defense-health-agency-officials-answer-questions-on-covid-19/

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, straight_stewie said:

Do you have a source for this?
Trump said this morning that he will enact the Defense Production act on this issue, and Pence said that, in the mean time, there are currently some 10,000 units (this number is from my memory of his statements this morning, so I apologize if it's off a little) currently warehoused but not in hospitals.

I have a source but I can't provide it here for some reasons. Not "evading", I just can't.

 

But, here are some other sources which can give you an idea of the problem:

This is for the UK, but the problem is the same everywhere
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51914490

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/coronavirus-we-sell-500-ventilators-in-a-good-year/

 

You you have more information focused on the US:
https://www.investopedia.com/3-ventilator-manufacturer-stocks-in-focus-4800069

 

You have a limited number of companies manufacturing ventilators, and they have a finite capacity of production. Many of the pieces are high-tech.

You absolutely can produce some spare parts for some very definite parts of the ventilator in a FabLab (and I totally support that) but you can't easily repurpose a chain of production in a plant for brand new ventilators when they don't have the machinery, the know-how and the testing ability.

 

Don't want to be negative, just realistic. These ventilators will be needed very soon.

 

Regarding the 10k Trump says he has in stock somewhere, I first want to see them.

Still holding my breath to see the promised test kits. Yes, I'm in hypoxia! Good thing I have a good lung capacity

 

 

[WkdPaul]

12 minutes ago, Voluspa said:

Wearing a medical mask is one of the prevention measures to limit spread of certain respiratory diseases, including 2019- nCoV, in affected areas.

I'm good I've ordered my masks from these guys ;

 

 

 

 

[straight_stewie]

20 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

I have a source but I can't provide it here for some reasons. Not "evading", I just can't.

Understood. Close industry ties are not currently disposable. Followed you for that actually.

 

 

< content removed >

Regardless, it doesn't matter. All we as citizens can do right now is hope that the people in charge, wherever or whomever they may be, are making the right decisions. Or, barring that, the best decisions they can within the constraints and information that they've been given. That's all one can ever really hope for anyway.

Edited March 19, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[SpaceGhostC2C]

On 3/18/2020 at 5:06 PM, SolarNova said:

Sorry my bad i didnt link the source.

 

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030

 

 

LOL that's Korea... This is how the numbers look like in Korea:

 

Total Cases (T): 8,413

Active (A): 6,789

Recovered (R): 1,540

Dead (D): 84

Death rate among complete cases (D/(D+R)): 5.2%

Percentage of complete cases ((D+R)/T): 19.3%

Unconditional (misleading) death rate (D/T): 1.0%

Unconditional dead+serious condition rate ((D+S)/T): 1.7%

 

Now let's look at, let's say, Italy (sort of opposite extreme, although there are worse in relative terms):

 

Total Cases (T): 31,506

Active (A): 26,062

Recovered (R): 2,941

Dead (D): 2,503

Death rate among complete cases (D/(D+R)): 46%

Percentage of complete cases ((D+R)/T): 17.3%

Unconditional (misleading) death rate (D/T): 7.9%

Unconditional dead+serious condition rate ((D+S)/T): 14.5%

 

You are looking at veeery selected data there.

By the way, if you check at countries at later stages of the outbreak, and despite the caveats around Chinese data quality, you get things like:

 

China:

Total Cases (T): 80,894

Active (A): 8,043

Recovered (R): 69,614

Dead (D): 3,237

Death rate among complete cases (D/(D+R)): 4.4%

Percentage of complete cases ((D+R)/T): 90.1%

Unconditional (-less- misleading) death rate (D/T): 4.0%

Unconditional dead+serious condition rate ((D+S)/T): 7.2%

 

Hong Kong (small sample):

Total Cases (T): 181

Active (A): 85

Recovered (R): 92

Dead (D): 4

Death rate among complete cases (D/(D+R)): 4.2%

Percentage of complete cases ((D+R)/T): 47.0%

Unconditional (misleading) death rate (D/T): 2.2%

Unconditional dead+serious condition rate ((D+S)/T): 4.4%

 

Iran:

Total Cases (T): 17,361

Active (A): 10,837

Recovered (R): 5,389

Dead (D): 1,135

Death rate among complete cases (D/(D+R)): 17.4%

Percentage of complete cases ((D+R)/T): 37.6%

Unconditional (misleading) death rate (D/T): 6.5%

Unconditional sead+serious condition rate ((D+S)/T): 6.5%

 

Countries like France and Spain are a little behind Italy on terms of development of the outbreak, and their numbers are in between Iran and Italy.

So, two things: 1) no, it's not 1%, and 2) Europe isn't East Asia.

 

< content removed >

Edited March 19, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[PhantomJaguarr]

All local casinos here are closing this Friday.  My bank that gave me a loan when financing my new car is offering to defer payments for up to 120 days and suspending late fees. Still working at both my jobs but that’s good to know.

[CarlBar]

Going top post a link to a chem blog i follow intermittently as it has some hard scientific info on things being done and touches a little on the challanges, e.t.c. recommend archive binging through the general pool of posts about all sorts of med chem topics for more of a background on things:

 

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/category/current-events