corona virus

[Letgomyleghoe]

Quote

The coronavirus now has a whistleblower — a nurse in Wuhan who insists in a shocking online video that close to 90,000 people in China have the disease, far more than the 1,975 reported by officials.

“I am in the area where the coronavirus started,” her video begins. Wuhan is the epicenter of the outbreak.

“I’m here to tell the truth,” the anonymous nurse says in the video, which shows her wearing a full-head face mask.

“At this moment, Hubei province, including the Wuhan area, even China, 90,000 people have been infected by a coronavirus.”

I'm wondering if this is just someone seeking fame or if the infection number is actually that high, we all know how much china lives to cover things up.

 

 

source:https://nypost.com/2020/01/26/coronavirus-whistleblower-nurse-says-china-has-90000-sick/

 

Quote

A never-before-seen virus detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan has claimed more than 50 lives and infected more than 2,000 Chinese citizens with a pneumonia-like illness, according to China's National Health Commission. The virus was first reported to the World Health Organization on Dec. 31 and has been under investigation since. Chinese scientists have linked the disease to a family of viruses known as coronaviruses, which include the deadly SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome. 

On Friday, French authorities confirmed three cases inside the country, the first known cases in Europe and Australia announced its four. On Sunday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced a third case in the US, this time in Southern California. There are now more than 60 patients under investigation for possible infection in over 20 US states, according to Dr. Nancy Messonnier of the CDC. 

Scientists have yet to fully understand the destructive potential of the new virus, known as 2019-nCoV. Researchers and investigators are just beginning to figure out where it originated, how it's transmitted and how far it has spread.

if the above "90,000" infected holds true i wonder the actual death count,

[Andreas Lilja]

How would a simple nurse know how many people are infected anyhow. Isn't that a bit over the pay grade? 

[Letgomyleghoe]

Just now, Andreas Lilja said:

How would a simple nurse know how many people are infected anyhow. 

People check in when they enter a hospital even in ground 0, it's usually to keep track of how many people they have, and if they can take more.

It wouldn't be that hard to call other local hospitals and ask "hey we have xxx people and were balls deep in Corona virus, how many infected do you have? Can you take anymore?" 

 

But I was also wondering if she's just pulling shit out of her ass too. 

[GenericFanboy]

Disseased counts can never really be accurate. Especially if there's more and more dying constantly. 

 

But i dont think she's completely wrong. I'm quite sure there's a lot more people than they say. But not 90 000

[WereCatf]

6 hours ago, scuff gang said:

we all know how much china lives to cover things up

Yeah. They did cover up how bad SARS was and they still haven't provided the samples of it they were asked for, so it would be entirely prudent to assume the same behaviour with this new virus as well.

 

8 minutes ago, scuff gang said:

But I was also wondering if she's just pulling shit out of her ass too.

She may just be throwing out an educated estimate. Nurses often have friends in other hospitals and clinics and word travels fast, so I could totally see her having at least a rough understanding of the situation at large.

[Guest]

It's not that bad and there is no motivation to lie about an epidemic. 

[WereCatf]

Just now, RorzNZ said:

It's not that bad and there is no motivation to lie about an epidemic. 

Are you talking about the nurse or the Chinese government? Because it's a proven fact that they lied about SARS.

[Letgomyleghoe]

1 minute ago, RorzNZ said:

there is no motivation to lie about an epidemic. 

Clearly your not old enough to remember sars

[Guest]

1 minute ago, scuff gang said:

Clearly your not old enough to remember sars

SARS wasn't that bad and neither is this. People tend to blow this stuff out of proportion when there's a low chance of getting SARS with this strain of coronavirus. Its just a little scary thats all. 

[Letgomyleghoe]

5 minutes ago, RorzNZ said:

SARS wasn't that bad and neither is this. People tend to blow this stuff out of proportion when there's a low chance of getting SARS with this strain of coronavirus. Its just a little scary thats all. 

If you were to go look SARS another Coronavirus 

Had a 1 in 10 death rate and killed about 800 people out of the 8000 infected, the death rate with Wuhan Coronavirus is lower but with increased infectivity. 

 

Also, the world is very overpopulated, we are way over due for a pandemic or epidemic and it wouldn't surprise me if this was it.

 

Sure the death rate and symptoms are similar to the flu, but it is much more communicable and we don't know any long-term symptoms yet.

[WereCatf]

5 minutes ago, RorzNZ said:

SARS wasn't that bad

Personally, I do consider 8422 cases with an 11% fatality-rate rather bad.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, scuff gang said:

If you were to go look SARS another Coronavirus 

Had a 1 in 10 death rate and killed about 800 people out of the 8000 infected, the death rate with Wuhan Coronavirus is lower but with increased infectivity. 

 

Also, the world is very overpopulated, we are way over due for a pandemic or epidemic and it wouldn't surprise me if this was it.

 

Sure the death rate and symptoms are similar to the flu, but it is much more communicable and we don't know any long-term symptoms yet.

Basic hygiene, isolation of patients and staying away from infected animals go a long way. The reason why it has spread is, unlike SARS-CoV, the Wuhan virus is contagious in an asymptomatic state, so its much more difficult for screening. Considering all the quarantine measures - which are very impressive, and the disease being zoonotic, the odds of anyone on this forum getting the disease is quite low. 

4 minutes ago, WereCatf said:

Personally, I do consider 8422 cases with an 11% fatality-rate rather bad.

In a small sample size, of course its going to look bad. You can't extrapolate sample data from one town in China to the world. 

[WereCatf]

1 minute ago, RorzNZ said:

In a small sample size, of course its going to look bad. You can't extrapolate sample data from one town in China to the world. 

Where did I extrapolate anything? Besides, the 8422 cases is the worldwide number.

[mr moose]

5 minutes ago, WereCatf said:

Where did I extrapolate anything? Besides, the 8422 cases is the worldwide number.

Because the vast majority of those cases were in the same area.  We have no idea how good the hygiene, hospitals or other medical faculties are let alone how well the local governments can control disease outbreaks.   Had Sars started in California where they have much better hospitals and disease control (and more importantly much better hygiene across the board) the outcome may have been very different.  

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, WereCatf said:

Where did I extrapolate anything? Besides, the 8422 cases is the worldwide number.

The pandemic is mainly in china  - like 200 of those at most would be from other countries (only 60 patients, that are suspected are in the US). Its very well contained in China. 

[WereCatf]

1 minute ago, RorzNZ said:

The pandemic is mainly in china  - like 200 of those at most would be from other countries (only 60 patients, that are suspected are in the US). Its very well contained in China. 

I don't get what you and @mr moose are on about; I have not painted it a some sort of a major pandemic nor did I even say anything about the worldwide-state of the virus. I was only commenting on the fact that China did lie about SARS -- fact -- and they have been delaying sending the samples around -- fact -- and I could totally see them lying about the state of this virus just as well. The state of it worldwide is irrelevant to what I said.

[mr moose]

11 minutes ago, WereCatf said:

I don't get what you and @mr moose are on about; I have not painted it a some sort of a major pandemic nor did I even say anything about the worldwide-state of the virus. I was only commenting on the fact that China did lie about SARS -- fact -- and they have been delaying sending the samples around -- fact -- and I could totally see them lying about the state of this virus just as well. The state of it worldwide is irrelevant to what I said.

 

Well, you did claim the Chinese government might be lying about it and that sars was bad to the tune of 11% death rate.  Except that the point is that is only specific to the region it was in.  Until we see a universal death rate of 11% everywhere that the disease goes, then the bad thing might not be the disease itself but the way it is managed in that specific area.  

 

(EDIT: a clearer way to say the above:  the death rate for one country/province does not define the severity of a disease, pointing that out does not say anything about the severity of coronavirus).

 

The plague is still around to day killing people, but due to hygiene (almost alone) it is only something like 8 a year in the US with most cases being able to be cured with early enough diagnoses and antibiotics.  If you live int he Congo however 1 in 12 will die almost regardless of medical intervention. 

 

The difference between the US and the Congo does not need to be pointed out, but this does highlight why you can't judge the severity of a disease based on it's effect within one area.

 

 

[Bombastinator]

52 minutes ago, RorzNZ said:

It's not that bad and there is no motivation to lie about an epidemic. 

Regarding no motivation, There’s possibly Face.  It might be anyway.  I’ve never really understood the concept of face myself. It’s supposed to be a great motivator in China and Japan though.  

[WereCatf]

6 minutes ago, mr moose said:

Well, you did claim the Chinese government might be lying about it and that sars was bad to the tune of 11% death rate.  Except that the point is that is only specific to the region it was in.

The Wikipedia-article for SARS actually lists death-rates per region and China is listed as...6.6%. Canada, on the other hand, is listed as 18%. -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome#History

 

12 minutes ago, mr moose said:

(EDIT: a clearer way to say the above:  the death rate for one country/province does not define the severity of a disease, pointing that out does not say anything about the severity of coronavirus).

I didn't make any claims of the severity of the coronavirus itself. I'll just repeat this once and after that I can't be arsed to keep arguing with you, since you keep twisting my words: I would totally not be surprised if the Chinese government was lying about the number of cases and/or the fatality-rates, period.

[RejZoR]

A lot of drama with nothing special in the end. Just like most of these oh muh god pandemic outbreaks in last 2 decades. It seems applying basic protocols halts the spread anyways.

[WereCatf]

8 minutes ago, RejZoR said:

A lot of drama with nothing special in the end. Just like most of these oh muh god pandemic outbreaks in last 2 decades. It seems applying basic protocols halts the spread anyways.

It's only hysteric alarmists and journalists looking for clicks that keep making claims about an incoming pandemic, that's for sure. I have a hard time imagining some disease managing to spread worldwide and killing even just 100k people with modern protocols. I'm no virologist, but 10k worldwide deaths seems to me like something that just about might be possible at most.

 

Granted, 10k would still be a lot of people.

[mr moose]

49 minutes ago, WereCatf said:

The Wikipedia-article for SARS actually lists death-rates per region and China is listed as...6.6%. Canada, on the other hand, is listed as 18%. -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome#History

 

I tried to keep it simple, however if you look you'll see the rates vary quite differently depending on country (which may not specifically have anything to do with the country and more the county/region there of).  Hence why you can't label the severity of a disease based on how many it kills. 

Quote

I didn't make any claims of the severity of the coronavirus itself. I'll just repeat this once and after that I can't be arsed to keep arguing with you, since you keep twisting my words: I would totally not be surprised if the Chinese government was lying about the number of cases and/or the fatality-rates, period.

No one said you were talking death rates about coronavirus,  you said those deaths where about sars and about how bad it is (because someone else said coronavirus so far isn't as bad as the media is making out). All I am trying to point out is that you didn't account for region or other factors.  No one is twisting your words, we are simply explaining that calling a disease bad because it kills X number of people is not how a diseases severity is measured.   So again look at the plague as an example, you could argue it has exactly the same death rate as sars, but you can only do that in the congo. 

[wasab]

2 hours ago, GenericFanboy said:

Disseased counts can never really be accurate. Especially if there's more and more dying constantly. 

 

But i dont think she's completely wrong. I'm quite sure there's a lot more people than they say. But not 90 000

90k is way too visible to cover up, especially in this age of smartphones and internet. 

[GenericFanboy]

1 minute ago, wasab said:

90k is way too visible to cover up, especially in this age of smartphones and internet. 

Correct, But i do think the current number we're getting isnt accurate whatsoever.

[wasab]

2 hours ago, scuff gang said:

Clearly your not old enough to remember sars

And also HIV. China has been covering that up back in the 1990s, causing widespread epidemics in poor rural villages. 

 

Still, 90k is too far fetch.