corona virus

[SpikeSpiegel]

https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/mcdonalds-citing-coronavirus-outbreak-closes-its-dining-rooms-asks-franchisees-to-do-same

[Master Disaster]

On 3/17/2020 at 5:37 PM, CarlBar said:

 

As an addendum to my point about not using deaths. Between 2014 and 2019 the UK saw an average number of flu deaths per year of around 17k, (46 per day if averaged over th whole year). Based on that should we be on 24/7 lockdown all the time because of flu. Using deaths alone as a measure of when to enact extreme measures is a terrible idea. It isn't in of itself very useful. In combination with a whole lot of other statistics it can be, but it isn't on it's own. 

Just an FYI, you mentioned deaths as a metric, not me.

 

On 3/17/2020 at 5:24 PM, CarlBar said:

Spoiler

 

First, no immunologist where not amongst those asking to see the data, i saw the story shortly after it came out and the report i read added a specific notation at the end that no immunologists where involved.

 

Also yes it's muddy as hell because the disease has a long incubation period. That's why airport testing is have no significant effect. the tests can't detect the disease in the incubation phase so people can be infected but pass the airport screen with flying colours. Any estimate of the number of infected off test results alone is very poor for the same reason. You actually have to look at the trend of infected over an extended time period. You also have the fact that no one has enough testing capability to test everyone who might be infected. The US really dropped the ball there going to develop it's own test but it's still the case that testing everyone who shows any symptoms isn't very practical right now. China's persistent lying about the outbreak hasn't helped as it's muddied the waters a lot about things. Thats started to clear up at this point as it's got out of china more. But the closer to the initial outbreak you go timeline wise the more governments where having to guess on how they responded. Population metrics also play a factor in when and where to act. Ditto your healthcare capabilities. The weaker your health system the sooner you need to act.

 

Also no china didn't clean it up in 3 weeks. it's ongoing there. They've got it majorly slowed down. but it hasn't stopped.

 

Also once again i point you to the PDF Cora_Life posted. Thats the predictions of the countries immunologists, (based on data available at the time it was made ofc), and includes a specific caution about acting too early. Your making a big assumption that other countries actions where A) taken at a point where it was much less worse. Given differing population sizes, average ages, and distributions that isn't remotely a reliable claim before we even get into the issue that total deaths or detected infections does not equal severity. B) That those countries weren't themselves acting too early, both because of public pressure and/or the issues created by china's early lying and general unreliability of statements from them.Britain is later getting hit, we have more information on the specifics from watching what happened elsewhere.

 

 

I think theres a misunderstanding between us. I won't debate that infection rate & death rate statistics aren't muddy, they're about as clear as a BoJo the Clown statement. There is however clear evidence that mass testing, isolation of anyone who tests positive or anyone who shows symptoms and social distancing all work to stop the spread as long as you get it done quickly enough. Look at the infection rates of places that didn't act early and compare it to the ones that did. I understand the infection rate figures aren't exactly accurate but the trend is obvious, if you catch it early enough you can stop it from spreading on mass.

 

The question isn't about if its possible to stop it, its about if you want to stop it. I watched a very interesting video yesterday about how viruses survive and return every year and its to do with environmental DNA. Essentially once a virus spreads enough around any given location the actual location starts to build up DNA. Once it gets everywhere it can its almost inevitable that some of it will build up in a place where it can survive long term. Summer happens and 99% of the DNA is killed however that remaning 1% stays alive and once Winter rolls back around someone picks it back up and the cycle begins again. I guessing the Italians, Spanish, Germans, French & our own Government have decided that this thing is going to turn into a seasonal disease and are wanting to expose us to it now (at least as much as possible) so when next year rolls around it won't hit us half as badly AKA herd immunity.

 

I also genuinely beleive that money is involved in this decision. IMO they've concluded that this is probably going to cause another global recession (and TBH it probably will) and if they can keep us spending money as much as possible throughout this we might not end up in such a deep hole on the other side.

 

Lastly China have beaten it, yesterday they reported less than 10 cases in the entire country (and some of those were imported), unfortunately its not something that anywhere except Russia or North Korea could emulate. China went HARDCORE, literally dragging anybody with a temperature (including all family and anybody else in the house) away in vans and containing them in makeshift facilities. They were also welding up doors on entire blocks of flats and boarding up houses while people were inside. If reports are to be belived they weren't even collecting the dead and were leaving people locked in houses with corpses for days.

 

That said though, the WHO have said they're keeping a close eye on China as they ramp things back up because its not impossible that they'll get a second wave.

 

Our governments response to this has either been, frankly selfish and very dangerous or brilliant. We wont discover which that is until me make it to the other side. If next Winter this thing does return then anywhere thats done hard lockdown this time around will get hit hard.

Edited March 19, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Andreas Lilja]

https://www.slashfilm.com/nbcuniversal-movies-available-on-demand-immediately/

 

Should be the norm regardless of viruses.

[Deli]

A while ago a dog in Hong Kong was tested positive for virus, has passed away Monday. The cause of death unknown.

[imreloadin]

8 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

Ok... Seems we know now the reason of the "sudden" change in Trump's behaviour:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

Some ominous predictions...

 

 

Wow, a total unmitigated epidemic would result in a higher fatality rate of the population in the US than we had during the Spanish Flu...

 

Spoiler

For those wondering about my math:

 

The US population in 1918 was 103,208,000 people and the Spanish Flu killed ~675,000 which means that 0.654% of the population died from it.

 

From a quick google search the US had a population of 327,200,000 in 2019 and with the estimated deaths of 2,200,000 people COVID-19 would kill 0.672% of the population.

 

And yet we have this happening in Florida...

 

[Bartholomew]

For those who still believe the threat is mostly for old people or those with underlying existing conditions:

 

https://www.hln.be/nieuws/binnenland/spoedarts-uit-aalst-mensen-tussen-30-en-50-jaar-zijn-zwaar-ziek-beelden-van-longen-zijn-angstaanjagend~af5b42b6/?referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nieuwskoerier.nl%2Fnews%2F630168-spoedarts-uit-aalst-mensen-tussen-30-en-50-jaar-zijn-zwaar-ziek-beelden-van-longen-zijn-angstaanjagend

 

Tl:DR version, interview is with ER doctor in belgium:

 

1. The elderly is a minority of the groups comming in, most are 30-50 (article linked below that one above: twelve babies and todlers)

2. Non smoking, sporty, fit young people wihout prior health conditions are hit hard, life threatning, recocery possible but they show very very bad lungs, with sicnificant scar damage (not dying does not mean 100% recovery to health, thats likely why theres "few numbers" on recovery).

 

Im guessing thats why therese "few numbers" on recovery, and what recovery seems to mean; "not dead" is not the same as back to 100% organ functions. A what-if scenario of this coming back each year like a flu season could then mean quite a population decimationn over a few years (hopefully a vacine has succes in avoiding this).

[Deli]

2 minutes ago, Tony Tony Chopper said:

 

Wasn't that dog cured ?

Seems that dog was contaminated, but not infected according to report. And the owner doesn't want autopsy for the dog. So the exact cause of death is unclear.

[PhantomJaguarr]

Quote

Other parts of the city were just as lively this past weekend. The regional magazine Washingtonian cataloged the crowds and long lines at a German beer bar, a cupcake shop, and upscale restaurants, among other establishments. Other media outlets and social-media posts documented the masses that showed up to bars in Los Angeles, Nashville, New Orleans, Chicago, and Boston. Even in Seattle, an epicenter of the outbreak, some bars have been packed.

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-social-distancing-socializing-bars-restaurants/608164/

 

Facepalm. Have we learned nothing from history? The media should refer back to 1918 in the US and what happened in Philadelphia to get it through my fellow millennials’ heads.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kionasmith/2020/03/16/a-cautionary-tale-about-social-distancing-for-st-patricks-day-and-every-day/

[Andreas Lilja]

6 minutes ago, Deli said:

Seems that dog was contaminated, but not infected according to report. And the owner doesn't want autopsy for the dog. So the exact cause of death is unclear.

Well shouldn't the state pay / impose the frigging autopsy since it's relatively critical information??

[imreloadin]

7 minutes ago, Bartholomew said:

For those who still believe the threat is mostly for old people or those with underlying existing conditions:

 

https://www.hln.be/nieuws/binnenland/spoedarts-uit-aalst-mensen-tussen-30-en-50-jaar-zijn-zwaar-ziek-beelden-van-longen-zijn-angstaanjagend~af5b42b6/?referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nieuwskoerier.nl%2Fnews%2F630168-spoedarts-uit-aalst-mensen-tussen-30-en-50-jaar-zijn-zwaar-ziek-beelden-van-longen-zijn-angstaanjagend

 

Tl:DR version, interview is with ER doctor in belgium:

 

1. The elderly is a minority of the groups comming in, most are 30-50 (article linked below that one above: twelve babies and todlers)

2. Non smoking, sporty, fit young people wihout prior health conditions are hit hard, life threatning, recocery possible but they show very very bad lungs, with sicnificant scar damage (not dying does not mean 100% recovery to health, thats likely why theres "few numbers" on recovery).

 

Im guessing thats why therese "few numbers" on recovery, and what recovery seems to mean; "not dead" is not the same as back to 100% organ functions. A what-if scenario of this coming back each year like a flu season could then mean quite a population decimationn over a few years (hopefully a vacine has succes in avoiding this).

This is because a lot of those patients are developing ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome), they did a sample of 201 people who had COVID-19 pneumonia in Wuhan where they found that 42% of them developed ARDS and out of those people who developed it 44 of them died from it.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32167524

 

If you want to know more about ARDS:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acute_respiratory_distress_syndrome#Medical_imaging

[Deli]

2 minutes ago, Andreas Lilja said:

Well shouldn't the state pay / impose the frigging autopsy since it's relatively critical information??

Don't know the law in Hong Kong.

[Bartholomew]

3 minutes ago, imreloadin said:

This is because a lot of those patients are developing ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome), they did a sample of 201 people who had COVID-19 pneumonia in Wuhan where they found that 42% of them developed ARDS and out of those people who developed it 44 of them died from it.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32167524

 

If you want to know more about ARDS:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acute_respiratory_distress_syndrome#Medical_imaging

Interesting, thanks for sharing.

[Andreas Lilja]

18 hours ago, TetraSky said:

I don't know about you, but I can subsist through photosynthesis. 

 

I just glad Trudeau finally woke the F up and closed borders to non-residents. A bit late, but better late than never at this point.

Not closing earlier is manslaughter.

 

Also U.S. citizens apparently can get in? Why?

[TetraSky]

8 minutes ago, Andreas Lilja said:

Also U.S. citizens apparently can get in? Why?

I'm not sure, but it could be for things like medications.

Insulin in Canada is dirt cheap compared to the US. So those who live close to the border may just come up here to buy it instead of ruining themselves in the south? Meaning it could be a humanitarian thing...

Not to mention that our border with the US is... kinda huge and there isn't much point in trying to close it. It's easier to prevent other countries from coming over, since we just need to put a stop to air travel.

 

Could also be to avoid making Trump "mad" at Canada for whatever reasons. They are, our closest allies after all...  And Trump is like a giant baby.

[steelo]

Here in Kentucky, schools are closed, restaurants aren't allowed to have dining guests and there isn't a roll of TP in sight. Every grocery store is just about out of stock of beef.

 

I do, however enjoy working from home.

[Guest]

4 hours ago, CarlBar said:

Also once again i point you to the PDF Cora_Life posted. Thats the predictions of the countries immunologists, (based on data available at the time it was made ofc), and includes a specific caution about acting too early. Your making a big assumption that other countries actions where A) taken at a point where it was much less worse. Given differing population sizes, average ages, and distributions that isn't remotely a reliable claim before we even get into the issue that total deaths or detected infections does not equal severity. B) That those countries weren't themselves acting too early, both because of public pressure and/or the issues created by china's early lying and general unreliability of statements from them.Britain is later getting hit, we have more information on the specifics from watching what happened elsewhere.

*sigh*

 

You can't read the document I gave the link to and only take what you like

It is also written:

Quote

"Our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over"

Which means? Your NHS (and the US HCS) will be crushed down and you'll be left with... nothing but your tears to cry and most possibly ~250K deaths (in the UK).

And also:

Quote

“We were expecting herd immunity to build,” Imperial epidemiologist Azra Ghani said in a press conference on Monday night. “We now realize it’s not possible to cope with that.” Now, the researchers “conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time.” To reduce the spread of the virus, the researchers recommend a plan resembling those of most other countries: “A combination of case isolation, social distancing of the entire population and either household quarantine or school and university closure are required.”

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/u-k-realized-its-coronavirus-plan-could-kill-over-100-000.html

Of course, it's a prediction so the exact numbers can vary and the circumstances are continuously evolving. I'll just remind you that your national BoJo has exactly the same problem that american national Trump: neither of them ever accepted to face responsability of their own stupidity and (criminal) decisions.

France's HCS is already almost at its limit.

 

This is really a test to our systems/civilizations and even more to our populations...

The scene that was posted regarding Florida, the Floridians and the beaches is something we also had in France, and even in Portugal... They are under measures of social distancing and they all went to the beaches. The government even made announcements on the TV and radio regarding that...

It's just

Me? I call that Darwinian Selection. You (general "you") know you should do it (social distancing), you know why, it has been explained to you, you have seen what happened in China and you still do it? Instant karma! You deserve what will happen.

 

 

[duncannah]

A lockdown was just announced for Belgium, doesn't seem as strict as France's but it's still something

[FakeCIA]

Just now, duncannah said:

A lockdown was just announced for Belgium, doesn't seem as strict as France's but it's still something

Same in Phoenix. Apartments and stores are starting to lock up. Residents and local traffic only.

[FakeCIA]

3 minutes ago, Tony Tony Chopper said:

I wish our dutch president wouldn't say something stupid and would take this more serious, no proof been found that you become immune after you get it first time, and he is talking about herd immunity, im really scared

Chill out man. It's not the end of the world.

[Master Disaster]

This video explains everything perfectly.

[Guest]

Just read in the local newspaper that Luxembourg declared the State of Emergency nation wide (not that difficult regarding the size of the country) for 3 months.

They organised some financial help for companies, with some 0% interest loans and the IRS payments which can be extended up to 12 months and until 24 months in some cases.
As our Prime Minister said:
"The economic impact will be huge, but sanitary security comes first".

[Master Disaster]

13 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Just read in the local newspaper that Luxembourg declared the State of Emergency nation wide (not that difficult regarding the size of the country) for 3 months.

They organised some financial help for companies, with some 0% interest loans and the IRS payments which can be extended up to 12 months and until 24 months in some cases.
As our Prime Minister said:
"The economic impact will be huge, but sanitary security comes first".

Theres no chance in hell this won't cause a global recession. Countries around the globe are pumping millions into their health care which wasn't planned for, entertainment and most retail is going to be all but dead for the next 3 months at least, industry will slow as everyone stops buying and many businesses will disappear entirely. That happening everywhere at the same time is going to be catastrophic.

[SolarNova]

Its interesting, and somewhat frustrating, to watch the continued over reaction to this situation.

 

Numbers keep getting brought up, like 1000's of deaths, and numbers like 250k 'potential' deaths in the UK etc, as if 250k is an unimaginable number.

I can only surmise that the rather over the top reaction to these figures means a large portion of people have problems grasping large numbers .. like 8,000,000,000 (8 billion) and what 1% death toll really means to an already exponential global population growth rate.

 

Long story short is that even if the entire Human population is infected within a relatively short time frame of say 2 years (highly unlikely), and 1% die (as per the most accurate measurements of mortality so far provided (south Korea)), which is roughly 80 million at the most, it would not even negate a single years worth of population growth.

 

If people truly believe that this is a massive serious situation, then they should perhaps take a second to look at themselves and realize that acting out on emotion is the worst thing one can do in a 'serious situation'.

[FakeCIA]

14 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Just read in the local newspaper that Luxembourg declared the State of Emergency nation wide (not that difficult regarding the size of the country) for 3 months.

They organised some financial help for companies, with some 0% interest loans and the IRS payments which can be extended up to 12 months and until 24 months in some cases.
As our Prime Minister said:
"The economic impact will be huge, but sanitary security comes first".

Most major cities here have been closing down slowly. The problems start at the people who are panicking. Central Phoenix is completely empty, no people or cars on the street, except cops. The Scottsdale airport, small airport with 30 aircraft capacity, is shut down. I don't know if they are gonna shut down the big one, Skyharbor International Airport. All federal buildings like the courthouse are closed to the majority.

[FakeCIA]

3 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

Theres no chance in hell this won't cause a global recession. Countries around the globe are pumping millions into their health care which wasn't planned for, entertainment and most retail is going to be all but dead for the next 3 months at least, industry will slow as everyone stops buying and many businesse will disappear entirely. That happening everywhere at the same time is going to be catastrophic.

Yep. I went to dinner with some friends and asked the waitress how many people they had all day. They had 2 in a normal 8am to 10pm shift on a Saturday. Normally, they'd be getting up to 300 in a day. Some businesses have already gone out.