corona virus

[SpikeSpiegel]

 

[CarlBar]

2 hours ago, Master Disaster said:

Which is total nonsense, there's plenty of other countries around the world that have locked down with far less cases than we have. Ireland for example went into partial lockdown after only 6 cases.

 

The UK government has decided that as a population we need to be exposed and are doing everything they can to ensure that happens.

 

When others have gone into lockdown has no bearing on weather what i said is true. You'll note so far that zero british national immunologists, (you know the people trained in understanding epidemics), have spoken out against the government plan.

 

Also in response to your later line. yes the government has decided we need to be exposed. So has every other government in the world. The point of these lockdowns isn't to stop exposure because they won't. it's to slow down how quickly it spreads to a manageable level. Initiating a lockdown is dependent on how fast it's currently spreading vs our ability to cope with it from a healthcare perspective. The UK apparently hasn't reach a point in the rate of spread where a lockdown would be beneficial. But regardless of lockdown or not the vast majority of the worlds population is going to be exposed to this.

 

People need to get this through their heads now. There's no stopping this completely and there's no magical cure coming.

[RasmusDC]

been in quarantine since friday.. went home from job Tuesday, since we were setting up homework, as the main part of the corona thing here in Denmark.

 

Thursday night i felt a bit bad. called the doctors office, since it seemed i had a slight fever, got told that i should look at it as COVID-19 but they don´t test in Denmark, unless you are REALLY sick, so had to inform job, 2nd line people where sent home.. 3 of my collegues, luckily working at home anyway, so had a low impact..

 

if it is COVID which is not sure, since no test, for me and my family it hit with 1 day of feeling off, and 3 days of really not wanting to eat anything, and then the same 3 days of just constant diarrhea, lost 8 pounds (i´m 1.93 meters, and 96KG so down to 92.1 KG now, so .. just have to keep this going  ) locked down for 14 days in all.

 

for us.. again IF IT WAS COVID, it was a really brief thing, i would have loved to be tested, since my father have lung emphysema, and if we as a family was though it, then i could visit him, and my mother without the risk, of getting him hit..

 

we are both early 40´s and my son i 5 ... 

[Bartholomew]

2 minutes ago, CarlBar said:

 

When others have gone into lockdown has no bearing on weather what i said is true. You'll note so far that zero british national immunologists, (you know the people trained in understanding epidemics), have spoken out against the government plan.

 

Also in response to your later line. yes the government has decided we need to be exposed. So has every other government in the world. The point of these lockdowns isn't to stop exposure because they won't. it's to slow down how quickly it spreads to a manageable level. Initiating a lockdown is dependent on how fast it's currently spreading vs our ability to cope with it from a healthcare perspective. The UK apparently hasn't reach a point in the rate of spread where a lockdown would be beneficial. But regardless of lockdown or not the vast majority of the worlds population is going to be exposed to this.

 

People need to get this through their heads now. There's no stopping this completely and there's no magical cure coming.

Government: lacks measures

Country: gets infected beyond control

Goverment: "we decided you need to be exposed" uh-uh, no numb nuts, you no longer have any other choice in this...

 

Governments and their scientists..... you mean those who insisted from 1925 till 1970 that leaded fuel was harmless? And then took up to the 90ties to ban it? That was surely in our best interest wasnt it?

 

That said, i agree we need dosed exposure to gain resistance, and after last weeks dodgyness our PM gave a short and concise speech i must say im proud of. It basically came down to "majority of population will get it" and half of it was "good luck to, and proud of, our healthcare frontline workers".

 

I think that sums it up and was a lot more concise and honest than the long winded "talking a lot and saying very little" speeches from other countries. 

[RasmusDC]

17 minutes ago, Bartholomew said:

Government: lacks measures

Country: gets infected beyond control

Goverment: "we decided you need to be exposed" uh-uh, no numb nuts, you no longer have any other choice in this...

 

Governments and their scientists..... you mean those who insisted from 1925 till 1970 that leaded fuel was harmless? And then took up to the 90ties to ban it? That was surely in our best interest wasnt it?

 

That said, i agree we need dosed exposure to gain resistance, and after last weeks dodgyness our PM gave a short and concise speech i must say im proud of. It basically came down to "majority of population will get it" and half of it was "good luck to, and proud of, our healthcare frontline workers".

 

I think that sums it up and was a lot more concise and honest than the long winded "talking a lot and saying very little" speeches from other countries. 

the main problem in Denmark is politics went into it, they are focusing a lot on the "value" of locking us down, since the curve of infected has stopped.. at 8xx people.. the problem how ever is it stopped, when they stopped testing .. so they should scrap that curve, it is mis information.

 

They should focus on amount of hospitalized, which has DOUBLED last day. so already they are trying to get "ready" for election, they had some shit cases just before this.

[CarlBar]

11 minutes ago, Bartholomew said:

Governments and their scientists..... you mean those who insisted from 1925 till 1970 that leaded fuel was harmless? And then took up to the 90ties to ban it? That was surely in our best interest wasnt it?

 

Pardon me for just cherry picking something out i just don't have much to say on the rest of your post.

 

Whilst i'm just a little too young to remember this myself. A) AFAIK some scientists did speak out against it, hence why it kept coming back as a topic of discussion and people actually figured out that it was and come up with the statistics to prove it.

 

B) The issue with things like leaded fuels, asbestos, and a whole host of other similar things is that we didn't have any actual hard data to base a claim on for a long time. The world has gone through a lot of epidemics over the centuries and we have a lot of hard data on how various measures work and the like. It isn't perfect but remember even the best scientists can only make statements based on the evidence they have (and the provenance of the evidence is as important as what it says. Sadly academic scientists do commit fraud painfully often), 

 

C) I didn't say government scientists,. I said any british national scientist. There are immunologists out there with british passports who would stand to gain a lot of public exposure, (potentially very good for their careers), by taking a publicly opposed stance. Despite an incentive to do so they haven't. Thats very telling in my opinion.I may not completely trust experts. but i trust human nature to follow the incentive, and if someone isn't doing that i have to ask why.

[Master Disaster]

13 minutes ago, CarlBar said:

 

Pardon me for just cherry picking something out i just don't have much to say on the rest of your post.

 

Whilst i'm just a little too young to remember this myself. A) AFAIK some scientists did speak out against it, hence why it kept coming back as a topic of discussion and people actually figured out that it was and come up with the statistics to prove it.

 

B) The issue with things like leaded fuels, asbestos, and a whole host of other similar things is that we didn't have any actual hard data to base a claim on for a long time. The world has gone through a lot of epidemics over the centuries and we have a lot of hard data on how various measures work and the like. It isn't perfect but remember even the best scientists can only make statements based on the evidence they have (and the provenance of the evidence is as important as what it says. Sadly academic scientists do commit fraud painfully often), 

 

C) I didn't say government scientists,. I said any british national scientist. There are immunologists out there with british passports who would stand to gain a lot of public exposure, (potentially very good for their careers), by taking a publicly opposed stance. Despite an incentive to do so they haven't. Thats very telling in my opinion.I may not completely trust experts. but i trust human nature to follow the incentive, and if someone isn't doing that i have to ask why.

The World Health Organisation have been VERY vocal about not "letting the fire burn". Lots of British scientists have asked to government to release the data their predictive models are based on so they can peer review the science, BoJo has entirely ignored them.

 

I don't see how you can honestly say you trust them, the response to this in other countries has been SIGNIFICANTLY more than what we've done and they've mostly done so at a much earlier point than we have. What exactly makes us any different to people in other countries?

 

We're being treated as a science experiment by the NHS and only time will tell if they've got it right or not.

[Guest]

Ok... Seems we know now the reason of the "sudden" change in Trump's behaviour:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

Some ominous predictions...

 

Quote

Results

In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimatedR0 of 2.4, we predict 81%ofthe GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the US, resulting in more distinct localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B) than seen across GB. The higher peak in mortality in GB is due to the smaller size of the country andits older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.

 

[greenhorn]

3 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

I sent my daughter to buy a few things. When she came back she was all "Mom! People are crazy! I don't want to go alone anymore!"

I was O_o

[...] Let's say that she knows how to defend herself, but she was scared by the gal and the crazyness of that woman.

I mean... It was some croissants...

That is crazy, I hope your daughter is ok now and not scared anymore by this incident. That type of aggressive behaviour for no good reasons (as displayed by this person in the store) is something I am more afraid of than the virus itself, especially if it starts to become commonplace/"normal". I don't want to imagine what happens when people with easy access to weapons start behaving like that (for example in the US).

We too have seen "panik buying", but I didn't hear about any incidents like that (which isn't saying they didn't happen, probably they did somewhere). All supermarket companies are constantly emphasizing that their central warehouses are well-stocked since they anticipated a larger demand, but some shelves are still empty since the employees sometimes cannot refill them quickly enough. We even have people who are doing their military or civilian alternative service helping out in those warehouses to make sure the goods get sent to the supermarkets quickly enough and in sufficient quantities. Apparently, the number of customers at supermarkets has normalized since the lockdown has been initiated (going to the supermarket is still allowed).

[Guest]

On 3/17/2020 at 9:15 AM, CarlBar said:

People need to get this through their heads now. There's no stopping this completely and there's no magical cure coming.

We know that... What's your point?

 

On 3/17/2020 at 9:50 AM, CarlBar said:

C) I didn't say government scientists,. I said any british national scientist. There are immunologists out there with british passports who would stand to gain a lot of public exposure, (potentially very good for their careers), by taking a publicly opposed stance. Despite an incentive to do so they haven't. Thats very telling in my opinion.I may not completely trust experts. but i trust human nature to follow the incentive, and if someone isn't doing that i have to ask why.

Hum... Was posting my commenting while you were writing/posting yours...

 

I strongly recommend that you read the PDF with great attention. It's a study from British scientists... The same ones you said didn't say anything to contradict the british government...

Just saying.

[CarlBar]

17 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

The World Health Organisation have been VERY vocal about not "letting the fire burn". Lots of British scientists have asked to government to release the data their predictive models are based on so they can peer review the science, BoJo has entirely ignored them.

 

I don't see how you can honestly say you trust them, the response to this in other countries has been SIGNIFICANTLY more than what we've done and they've mostly done so at a much earlier point than we have. What exactly makes us any different to people in other countries?

 

We're being treated as a science experiment by the NHS and only time will tell if they've got it right or not.

 

None of those scientists are immunologists however. none of them have any education or formal knowledge of dealing with infectious diseases and epidemics. Whilst i have no issue with them asking to see the data, (though i also understand why the government isn't keen to release. Press is freaking stupid and loves to scare monger for views and clicks), them asking to see it dosen;t make the government response remotely suspect

 

Also since we don't have clear data on where many countries are in their epidemics, (death numbers are not data alone, the rate of new infections, (and a few other things), are much more important and that data is a lot more muddy), we can't really say weather they took more action sooner. Your also assuming that the other countries actions are automatically also correct or that their situations are automatically worse in relative terms. That isn't a set thing. Your basically doing exactly what i cautioned about not giving into panic and hysteria.Each country and t's situation is diffrent and needs to be adressed individually. Also see my response to Cora_Lie below.

 

25 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

We know that... What's your point?

 

That things like lockdowns have to be implemented at the right time. A lockdown is not going to stop the spread. It's just going to slow it down and when you do this is very important. kneejerk reactions are the worst possibble response.

 

Also regarding your PDF:

 

{quote]The aim of mitigation is to reduce the impact of an epidemic by flattening the curve, reducing peak incidence and overall deaths (Figure 2). Since the aim of mitigation is to minimise mortality, the interventions need to remain in place for as much of the epidemic period as possible. Introducing such interventions too early risks allowing transmission to return once they are lifted (if insufficient herd immunity has developed); it is therefore necessary to balance the timing of introduction with the scale of disruption imposed and the likely period over which the interventions can be maintained. In this scenario, interventions can limit transmission to the extent that little herd immunity is acquired – leading to the possibility that a second wave of infection is seen once interventions are lifted.[/quote]

 

Direct quote. Below that is figure 2 which shows based on the data they used to model it, (now well out of date ofc), that no measure would have any impact on the rate of spread until sometime after april 20th. To my eye the lines appear to have visibly dispersed around may 1.So it dosen't say what you think it does at all. In fact based on what is shown we shouldn't start a lockdown for another month.

 

Of course given the mudiness of the data i'm sure thats changed. But the UK government will wait until the updated graphs of this nature indicate it's the optimal time to implement a lockdown for the very reasons outlined in the passage i quoted above. the same news article that talked about isolation fatigue also included a clear statement that the Uk government would impose more severe restrictions when it felt it was the optimum time to do so.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, mr moose said:

Which further proves the only difference between humans being decent caring creatures and abhorrent selfish survivalists is equality of resources.

Yep... Always thought (and said) that you only need to scratch the upper layer of "education" and "civilization" varnish to have the true "nature" of humanity pop up.

 

[PhantomJaguarr]

I need bread and can’t find that anywhere. I miss toast for breakfast.  Saw a video on Snapchat of a mother crying because she couldn’t find diapers anywhere for her baby. Meanwhile my company has guaranteed us 14 day sick paid leave if I’m quarantined. Better than nothing. 

[greenhorn]

3 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Yep... Always thought (and said) that you only need to scratch the upper layer of "education" and "civilization" varnish to have the true "nature" of humanity pop up.

 

This and the situation in general remind me of a book I read a while ago and enjoyed very much, it is called "Blackout" by Marc Elsberg (original in German, English translation is available) This novel describes a scenario of a complete blackout in Europe (caused by tampering with smart meters and control software) and how the population deals with it. The author has done a lot of research beforehand and didn't adapt too many facts for the story. The changes in human behaviour are described in great detail.

I know it is not the same kind of crisis, but it could still be interesting for some of you.

[Guest]

On 3/17/2020 at 10:52 AM, CarlBar said:

That things like lockdowns have to be implemented at the right time. A lockdown is not going to stop the spread. It's just going to slow it down and when you do this is very important. kneejerk reactions are the worst possibble response.

It is always tricky to find the "right time" to do that... Some countries did that. France for example did it a little bit too late, but Italy didn't do it at all until way too late.

And the purpose here is about the US, and in the US they didn't do anything, they didn't test, they don't knoe the numbers, etc.

And you think that they do that in the UK ?

Not at all! They are not interested in the numbers, and without the numbers you can't project.

 

If you base your decision in proportion of the cases in hospital, then all you're doing and the only choice you're giving yourself is exactly that: kneejerks.

And that is the choice being made by the british government.

There won't be any mitigation, and the NHS will be overwhelmed... Just look at the projection.

 

Regarding the "lack" of communication of BoJo's government, well... Nothing new there. YOu can't criticize if you don't have the data letting you make any kind of analysis.

BoJo is no better than Trump in so many ways. These clowns are dangerous.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On 3/17/2020 at 10:53 AM, PhantomJaguar77 said:

I need bread and can’t find that anywhere. I miss toast for breakfast.  Saw a video on Snapchat of a mother crying because she couldn’t find diapers anywhere for her baby. Meanwhile my company has guaranteed us 14 day sick paid leave if I’m quarantined. Better than nothing. 

Why don't you bake your own bread? It's very easy to bake, and so good. If you want a recipe and are ready to try the adventure, just ask, I give you some links

 

She's crying because she can't find diapers? O_o
Diapers only exist for the past 40 years... And mothers of the past (and even in the present...) make do without diapers very well...

 

On 3/17/2020 at 11:01 AM, greenhorn said:

This and the situation in general remind me of a book I read a while ago and enjoyed very much, it is called "Blackout" by Marc Elsberg (original in German, English translation is available) This novel describes a scenario of a complete blackout in Europe (caused by tampering with smart meters and control software) and how the population deals with it. The author has done a lot of research beforehand and didn't adapt too many facts for the story. The changes in human behaviour are described in great detail.

Yes, I've read it In fact I've read all three of them ^o^

And I saw the TEDx about Blackout:

 

Have you watched "Goodbye World"?  Really liked the movie

[PhantomJaguarr]

23 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Why don't you bake your own bread? It's very easy to bake, and so good. If you want a recipe and are ready to try the adventure, just ask, I give you some links

That would be nice. Something else to keep me occupied besides gaming and binge watching Netflix and Prime. Also, I did buy a lot of extra flour weeks before the shitstorm started here.

[RasmusDC]

1 hour ago, Cora_Lie said:

We know that... What's your point?

it think that has been normal knowledge for 2 weeks, i know the danish goverment has never talked about not getting infected, just the "lowering" of the curve, so hospitals can handle the virus, so less amount of hospitalized people in a longer period of time..

 

what also seems to be coming close, are medicine, the health organization her, are starting trials pr lottery of medicine, that can suppress the agressiveness of the virus, although not all sideeffects are known, and effect, this can be done to high risk patients, so a "prolongation" of the virus might be a positive thing, also for developing elements that can support us in saving as many of the high risk individuals as possible.

 

i also think we have to respect, that this is a sort of building while designing, so we will make mistakes. and goverments some places are honest about this, and that is important, i don´t like the danish goverment, but i am positive, about the honesty when things have been wrong, like stopping tests, and then reacting on it, they seem to be using the specialists in a high degree, but them selves taking responsiblities as leadership. it is FAR from perfect, and these 14 days of locked down, can be a month... 

 

what scares me most, are the young doctors and nurses, sending out facebook horror stories, about "future scenarios" of pulling people of respirators, cross infections in hospitals, doctors klling them selves at hospitals because of the immense amount of pressure.. these scare tactics has no value other then creating more ill will and issues for the sociaty..

 

And also if you look at statistics from south korea most infected are between 20-29 years old, but are without visible sickness, and these are not getting checked in europe because of no "effects" of symptoms, so these are the super spreaders, and they are keeping up the "social life" especially in larger cities here.

[Master Disaster]

On 3/17/2020 at 10:52 AM, CarlBar said:

Spoiler

 

None of those scientists are immunologists however. none of them have any education or formal knowledge of dealing with infectious diseases and epidemics. Whilst i have no issue with them asking to see the data, (though i also understand why the government isn't keen to release. Press is freaking stupid and loves to scare monger for views and clicks), them asking to see it dosen;t make the government response remotely suspect

 

Also since we don't have clear data on where many countries are in their epidemics, (death numbers are not data alone, the rate of new infections, (and a few other things), are much more important and that data is a lot more muddy), we can't really say weather they took more action sooner. Your also assuming that the other countries actions are automatically also correct or that their situations are automatically worse in relative terms. That isn't a set thing. Your basically doing exactly what i cautioned about not giving into panic and hysteria.Each country and t's situation is diffrent and needs to be adressed individually. Also see my response to Cora_Lie below.

 

 

That things like lockdowns have to be implemented at the right time. A lockdown is not going to stop the spread. It's just going to slow it down and when you do this is very important. kneejerk reactions are the worst possibble response.

 

Also regarding your PDF:

 

{quote]The aim of mitigation is to reduce the impact of an epidemic by flattening the curve, reducing peak incidence and overall deaths (Figure 2). Since the aim of mitigation is to minimise mortality, the interventions need to remain in place for as much of the epidemic period as possible. Introducing such interventions too early risks allowing transmission to return once they are lifted (if insufficient herd immunity has developed); it is therefore necessary to balance the timing of introduction with the scale of disruption imposed and the likely period over which the interventions can be maintained. In this scenario, interventions can limit transmission to the extent that little herd immunity is acquired – leading to the possibility that a second wave of infection is seen once interventions are lifted.[/quote]

 

Direct quote. Below that is figure 2 which shows based on the data they used to model it, (now well out of date ofc), that no measure would have any impact on the rate of spread until sometime after april 20th. To my eye the lines appear to have visibly dispersed around may 1.So it dosen't say what you think it does at all. In fact based on what is shown we shouldn't start a lockdown for another month.

 

Of course given the mudiness of the data i'm sure thats changed. But the UK government will wait until the updated graphs of this nature indicate it's the optimal time to implement a lockdown for the very reasons outlined in the passage i quoted above. the same news article that talked about isolation fatigue also included a clear statement that the Uk government would impose more severe restrictions when it felt it was the optimum time to do so.

 

 

I assure you I'm calm and collected, I'm not in the high risk category and if I get it it should be pretty mild.

 

The people asking to see the data are scientists (hence why the want to peer review the data) and yes, there have been immunologists included in that (scientists from various universities around the UK want to see the modelling data). The reason they don't want to release the data is simple, they know the scientific community will immediately disagree with the conclusions. We've also had the previous boss of public health England saying the response has not been strong enough, literally the guy who would have been making these decisions only a year ago is saying the wrong decisions are being made.

 

Other countries are basing their responses on advice from the WHO & China. After 2 weeks of inaction China cleaned the thing up in 3 weeks. That's proof it can be done. Now obviously I'm not suggesting that we start welding people's doors shut and drag anybody with a temperature off to a containment camp like China did but the government should be banning mass gatherings, closing schools, closing our borders and most importantly TESTING ANYBODY WHO SHOWS ANY RELATED SYMPTOMS. Advising people against these things is telling people to take their own lives in their hands and these are very basic things. Once again, the rest of Europe has been put on lockdown and told it will last as long as required, why are we any different? (Hint, we're not). BoJo wants everyone to keep calm and carry on so they keep spending money right up to the point they catch the thing. Isolation fatigue is very simply put, spin. Anybody even remotely sensible will do what's needed for as long as needed.

 

The right time to lockdown was back in January, Russia did it and they have 35 cases in the entire country.

 

You keep saying the data is muddy, it's not muddy at all. It's incomplete sure but incomplete and muddy are not the same thing. Italy, France & Germany all waited to lockdown like we are and now they are all in a state of chaos while countries which "overreacted" are actually reporting very little spread and even fewer deaths. The incomplete evidence indicates that lockdown is the way you beat this thing, waiting was very bad for China and Italy and it looks like it will also be bad for France & Germany. 4 out of 4 is pretty clear, waiting until you think is the right time to act means you've waited until it's too late. Remember Germany, France & Italy are all rated higher than the UK on the quality of medical care and on bed capacity and somehow BoJo the clown has decided the best thing we can do is mimic these places. In 3 weeks time I guarantee you the NHS will be on the brink of collapse. Our current high dependency bed count is 500 across the entire country and that's including beds that are already taken up by existing patients. Pardon my french here but if things get anywhere near Italy over here we're fucked.

Edited March 19, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Lii]

Stupid question:

If a vaccine is ready, could it be used on infected people? 

[FakeCIA]

Got a text from a friend who works for the Arizona State Food Bank. There was a family of 8 going from Yuma to Flagstaff, pretending to be homeless so they could get free food and supplies. They were caught by police after someone saw them leaving Flagstaff in a Cadillac XT6. This is apparently happening to every state-run food bank. My friend was saying that their stock has gone down to nearly a fourth of what it was at the end of 2019. That is a very steep decline. When looking at the numbers, they have less food available to those who need it than during the 2008 Housing Market Crash.

[Master Disaster]

1 hour ago, Tony Tony Chopper said:

Heard they are skipping animal testing and going straight for human testing, and apparently they might figure out why some die and why some do not.

Doesn't matter anyway. There has to be a certain length of human trialing before any vaccine will be authorised. The last thing they want is everyone getting vaccinated then in 10 years time we all develop cancer or something else even worse than the disease they were trying to fight off.

 

The people claiming under 12 months are away with the fairy's. It seems like most experts agree on 12 to 18 months being reasonable assuming nothing goes wrong. Honestly it could be years, remember they never managed to develop a vaccine for HIV.

[RasmusDC]

1 hour ago, Master Disaster said:

Doesn't matter anyway. There has to be a certain length of human trialing before any vaccine will be authorised. The last thing they want is everyone getting vaccinated then in 10 years time we all develop cancer or something else even worse than the disease they were trying to fight off.

 

The people claiming under 12 months are away with the fairy's. It seems like most experts agree on 12 to 18 months being reasonable assuming nothing goes wrong. Honestly it could be years, remember they never managed to develop a vaccine for HIV.

as mentioned they are already starting to give medicine in Denmark on a lottery trial setup, that seems to stop agressiveness..

 

Yes they don´t know all the side-effects and if it is effective, but if you are 80 years old have lung problems, Emphysema or KOL, then i guess 10 years issues, are not that important, or even shorter term side effects.

 

And also i China there seems to be an attack angle.. 

[CarlBar]

On 3/17/2020 at 12:31 PM, Master Disaster said:

Spoiler

 

I assure you I'm calm and collected, I'm not in the high risk category and if I get it it should be pretty mild.

 

The people asking to see the data are scientists (hence why the want to peer review the data) and yes, there have been immunologists included in that (scientists from various universities around the UK want to see the modelling data). The reason they don't want to release the data is simple, they know the scientific community will immediately disagree with the conclusions. We've also had the previous boss of public health England saying the response has not been strong enough, literally the guy who would have been making these decisions only a year ago is saying the wrong decisions are being made.

 

Other countries are basing their responses on advice from the WHO & China. After 2 weeks of inaction China cleaned the thing up in 3 weeks. That's proof it can be done. Now obviously I'm not suggesting that we start welding people's doors shut and drag anybody with a temperature off to a containment camp like China did but the government should be banning mass gatherings, closing schools, closing our borders and most importantly TESTING ANYBODY WHO SHOWS ANY RELATED SYMPTOMS. Advising people against these things is telling people to take their own lives in their hands and these are very basic things. Once again, the rest of Europe has been put on lockdown and told it will last as long as required, why are we any different? (Hint, we're not). BoJo wants everyone to keep calm and carry on so they keep spending money right up to the point they catch the thing. Isolation fatigue is very simply put, spin. Anybody even remotely sensible will do what's needed for as long as needed.

 

The right time to lockdown was back in January, Russia did it and they have 35 cases in the entire country.

 

You keep saying the data is muddy, it's not muddy at all. It's incomplete sure but incomplete and muddy are not the same thing. Italy, France & Germany all waited to lockdown like we are and now they are all in a state of chaos while countries which "overreacted" are actually reporting very little spread and even fewer deaths. The incomplete evidence indicates that lockdown is the way you beat this thing, waiting was very bad for China and Italy and it looks like it will also be bad for France & Germany. 4 out of 4 is pretty clear, waiting until you think is the right time to act means you've waited until it's too late. Remember Germany, France & Italy are all rated higher than the UK on the quality of medical care and on bed capacity and somehow BoJo the clown has decided the best thing we can do is mimic these places. In 3 weeks time I guarantee you the NHS will be on the brink of collapse. Our current high dependency bed count is 500 across the entire country and that's including beds that are already taken up by existing patients. Pardon my french here but if things get anywhere near Italy over here we're fucked.

 

 

 

First, no immunologist where not amongst those asking to see the data, i saw the story shortly after it came out and the report i read added a specific notation at the end that no immunologists where involved.

 

Also yes it's muddy as hell because the disease has a long incubation period. That's why airport testing is have no significant effect. the tests can't detect the disease in the incubation phase so people can be infected but pass the airport screen with flying colours. Any estimate of the number of infected off test results alone is very poor for the same reason. You actually have to look at the trend of infected over an extended time period. You also have the fact that no one has enough testing capability to test everyone who might be infected. The US really dropped the ball there going to develop it's own test but it's still the case that testing everyone who shows any symptoms isn't very practical right now. China's persistent lying about the outbreak hasn't helped as it's muddied the waters a lot about things. Thats started to clear up at this point as it's got out of china more. But the closer to the initial outbreak you go timeline wise the more governments where having to guess on how they responded. Population metrics also play a factor in when and where to act. Ditto your healthcare capabilities. The weaker your health system the sooner you need to act.

 

Also no china didn't clean it up in 3 weeks. it's ongoing there. They've got it majorly slowed down. but it hasn't stopped.

 

Also once again i point you to the PDF Cora_Life posted. Thats the predictions of the countries immunologists, (based on data available at the time it was made ofc), and includes a specific caution about acting too early. Your making a big assumption that other countries actions where A) taken at a point where it was much less worse. Given differing population sizes, average ages, and distributions that isn't remotely a reliable claim before we even get into the issue that total deaths or detected infections does not equal severity. B) That those countries weren't themselves acting too early, both because of public pressure and/or the issues created by china's early lying and general unreliability of statements from them.Britain is later getting hit, we have more information on the specifics from watching what happened elsewhere.

 

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[CarlBar]

 

As an addendum to my point about not using deaths. Between 2014 and 2019 the UK saw an average number of flu deaths per year of around 17k, (46 per day if averaged over th whole year). Based on that should we be on 24/7 lockdown all the time because of flu. Using deaths alone as a measure of when to enact extreme measures is a terrible idea. It isn't in of itself very useful. In combination with a whole lot of other statistics it can be, but it isn't on it's own. 

[Andreas Lilja]

Regular flu has vaccines and known treatments.