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Intel's 10nm Problems Might Be Worse Than First Thought

Daegun
By Daegun
in Tech News
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I didn't see this anywhere so time to start the rumor mill spinning. Take with lots of salt. 

 

It seems that not only has Intel been having problems with their 10nm process, but they've been unable to fix them and have resorted to making it less dense than previously. This results in a process that is closer to 12nm than 10nm, and a q4 2019 launch date in a best case scenario. 

 

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Semi Accurate has now released a report which claims that Intel is now actively downgrading their 10nm process to make the process production ready, sacrificing some of their die space/area savings so that they can improve their manufacturing yields enough to make the 10nm financially viable. In fact, Semi Accurate go as far as saying that Intel's new 10nm will be "effectively a 12nm process", though this is something that Intel would never publically admit to.

 

https://www.overclock3d.net/news/cpu_mainboard/intel_is_reportedly_gutting_10nm_to_make_the_process_usable/1

 

My thoughts: Intel really seems to be taking a beating lately and if true this is just making it worse. This would put their process essentially on par with other 10nm processes rather than ahead like they've been for so long, and not only that but they'd be releasing it about a year behind. If they wanted AMD to come back from the brink and claw back market share, they're doing perfect.

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1 minute ago, Deus Voltage said:

I just have a question; why doesn't Intel take advantage of TSMC's manufacturing process? Is it a legal thing? A pride thing? A financial thing? 

Because they own their fabs and make all their own dies, they cant use TSMCs

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Just now, Clanscorpia said:

Because they own their fabs and make all their own dies, they cant use TSMCs

Is it possible to do both at the same time? Manufacturing chips at your own fabs and using "outsider" fabs as a temporary thing? 

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Is there actually any point where lithography process can't get better?

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3 minutes ago, Paddi01 said:

Is there actually any point where lithography process can't get better?

Yes

 

Using silicon, the theoretical lower limit is around 5nm, so we're getting close.

 

The only way to increase transistor count after that is to increase the die size or move on to a new material (eg, carbon).

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26 minutes ago, Deus Voltage said:

Is it possible to do both at the same time? Manufacturing chips at your own fabs and using "outsider" fabs as a temporary thing? 

I mean in theory, yes, but that's quite the financial drain. Fabs are expensive as hell and if you're outsourcing it at the same time... That's like spending double the money to accomplish the same thing. Your foundry will still cost money except it won't be pumping out the chips you're selling instead opting to pay money on top for your wafers.

 

In fact Intel have tried to pick up clients to offset the cost of having a foundry.

There have also been rumors (although probably more like attempts at stock manipulation) that Intel might be looking to spin off their foundry like AMD did.

 

It's a tough business.

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Im glad they have problems, so they can finally get rid of the iGPU that takes 1/3 of each die and put more core instead otherwise they cant drop prices next year when amd comes with 12 core ryzen 7, 8 core ryzen 5 and they will still sell 6-8 core i5/i7 lmao.

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Intel might have better IPC and AVX-512 support but who cares if they don’t have a chip to show it for over a year compared to AMDs offering. 

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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Posted
11 minutes ago, abazigal said:

Apple's custom processors couldn't come soon enough. 

Custom as in an AMD chip built specifically for them or custom as in A-series for macs? Cause the latter would be useless and kill the mac line-up.

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1 minute ago, thexzenon said:

Custom as in an AMD chip built specifically for them or custom as in A-series for macs? Cause the latter would be useless and kill the mac line-up.

I am talking about custom ARM processors replacing Intel chips altogether. 

 

There might be some switching pains, but if anyone knows how to manage such a transition, it's Apple. I would view it as short term pain for long term gain. With Intel increasingly falling behind when it comes to updating their processors, it doesn't make sense for Apple to continue to rely on a company who has demonstrated that they simply can't deliver. 

 

And it's not as though their Mac line really has a lot to lose at this point. 

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Posted

I wonder if we will find 10 or 8 nanometers to be the practical limit instead of the theoretical 5. That could be problematic...

Haven't heard anything exciting about graphene chips since 2013, and quantum computers are still very much in the state of normal computers in the 60s (i.e. really bad and they take up a whole room).

 

If they can't get past 10nm, maybe we'll get another 30-50% performance over a decade or two from IPC improvements or larger chips... CPU speed improvements have certainly been slowing over the last two decades.

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9 minutes ago, thexzenon said:

Custom as in an AMD chip built specifically for them or custom as in A-series for macs? Cause the latter would be useless and kill the mac line-up.

Macs didn’t always use Intel processors. Until the 2000’s, they were running on IBM PowerPC cpus (neither ARM nor x86). 

 

Realistically, Apple could make it work. Any major software developer used by Apple would make a new version compatible with whatever new architecture Apple comes up with. 

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1 minute ago, dalekphalm said:

Macs didn’t always use Intel processors. Until the 2000’s, they were running on IBM PowerPC cpus (neither ARM nor x86). 

 

Realistically, Apple could make it work. Any major software developer used by Apple would make a new version compatible with whatever new architecture Apple comes up with. 

And when Apple last changed architecture, didn't they make a program a bit like WINE that could run the PowerPC programs on the Intel macs?

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2 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

Macs didn’t always use Intel processors. Until the 2000’s, they were running on IBM PowerPC cpus (neither ARM nor x86). 

 

Realistically, Apple could make it work. Any major software developer used by Apple would make a new version compatible with whatever new architecture Apple comes up with. 

At worst, it just means a Mac can only run final cut pro but not adobe premiere. Which is what you would be getting a Mac to do anyways. 

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Posted

I think it's only news to us, I think Intel are well aware of their process and what is required.  They have been saying for a while now that they went too dense and where hoping to find a work around.  Maybe this saving die space was what they had in mind.

Grammar and spelling is not indicative of intelligence/knowledge.  Not having the same opinion does not always mean lack of understanding.  

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2 hours ago, Deus Voltage said:

I just have a question; why doesn't Intel take advantage of TSMC's manufacturing process? Is it a legal thing? A pride thing? A financial thing? 

Because their CPU Design is not optimized for a different Manufacturing Plant.

 

If you switch from one Plant to the other, you have to essentially completely redesign the Chip from the ground up. 


And also Intel can optimize their Manufacturing Process for the Chips they do. While the Fabs had multiple different Manufacturing Options like LPP, LP, HP, HPP, they don't seem to have that right now.

 

So that means that with a TSMC manufactured Intel Core whatever the max. Clockrate could be no better than it is on Ryzen right now.

 

So they could loose Clockspeed. They might or might not increase Efficiency. And it essentially is a different Chip...

"Hell is full of good meanings, but Heaven is full of good works"

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Posted

 

2 hours ago, Clanscorpia said:

Because they own their fabs and make all their own dies, they cant use TSMCs

Naa, because they optimize their fabs for their (assumed) Micro Processor Design, while TSMC optimizes their Plants to what makes them the most money -> Energy Efficient aka Low Power aka Mobile.

"Hell is full of good meanings, but Heaven is full of good works"

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2 hours ago, Deus Voltage said:

I just have a question; why doesn't Intel take advantage of TSMC's manufacturing process? Is it a legal thing? A pride thing? A financial thing? 

https://stratechery.com/2018/intel-and-the-danger-of-integration/

 

Seems Intel is pretty heavily invested in their manufacturing capabilities. They would lose a lot of money if they opted a third party instead of using their own in-house facilities. 

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1 hour ago, abazigal said:

I am talking about custom ARM processors replacing Intel chips altogether. 

 

There might be some switching pains, but if anyone knows how to manage such a transition, it's Apple. I would view it as short term pain for long term gain. With Intel increasingly falling behind when it comes to updating their processors, it doesn't make sense for Apple to continue to rely on a company who has demonstrated that they simply can't deliver. 

 

And it's not as though their Mac line really has a lot to lose at this point. 

Well if Apple were switching it would make more sense for them to use their own custom A series processors,rather than AMD. It would be a nice seamless experience for those in the ecosystem with an iPhone or iPad.

Either way they would lose the optimizations for OSX and in apps like Final Cut and Adobe which take advantage of Intel's iGPU. Intel having control over their own fabs is a good thing for Apple,as they can get a large supply of custom chips that AMD probably couldn't deliver. Though I don't blame Intel for Apple not willing to design a laptop that can handle a high performance CPU, especially when Apple was still using 7th gen cpu's when most other OEM's had 8th gen 6 cores out.

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1 hour ago, pipnina said:

And when Apple last changed architecture, didn't they make a program a bit like WINE that could run the PowerPC programs on the Intel macs?

That’s correct. My dad had a first gen intel MacBook Pro, and there were several versions of OS X that ran the old PowerPC software. In fact, he intentionally didn’t upgrade past the last version with PPC support.

 

They eventually stopped supporting the old architecture - probably to encourage the last few devs to upgrade their software. 

59 minutes ago, abazigal said:

At worst, it just means a Mac can only run final cut pro but not adobe premiere. Which is what you would be getting a Mac to do anyways. 

I wouldn’t even bet on that. Enough Mac users pay for Adobe software for it to be only a matter of time before they would adopt the new architecture.

 

Adobe has even embraced iOS on the iPad Pro series. 

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5 minutes ago, Blademaster91 said:

Well if Apple were switching it would make more sense for them to use their own custom A series processors,rather than AMD. It would be a nice seamless experience for those in the ecosystem with an iPhone or iPad.

Either way they would lose the optimizations for OSX and in apps like Final Cut and Adobe which take advantage of Intel's iGPU. Intel having control over their own fabs is a good thing for Apple,as they can get a large supply of custom chips that AMD probably couldn't deliver. Though I don't blame Intel for Apple not willing to design a laptop that can handle a high performance CPU, especially when Apple was still using 7th gen cpu's when most other OEM's had 8th gen 6 cores out.

Seamless for the mobile users maybe, but not for the Mac users. All existing software would become unusable overnight as they switch ISA.

 

Going to AMD would help them keep compatibility, it's a much simpler drop-in replacement. Optimizing for an AMD iGPU would not be a big step, especially since Apple has been using AMD GPUs a lot.

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42 minutes ago, Blademaster91 said:

 Intel having control over their own fabs is a good thing for Apple,as they can get a large supply of custom chips that AMD probably couldn't deliver.

Seen that thing? Look at the Writings on the Die, ignore everything else.

https://www.techpowerup.com/gpudb/2977/xbox-one-x-gpu

https://www.techpowerup.com/gpudb/2866/xbox-one-s-gpu

https://www.techpowerup.com/gpudb/2086/xbox-one-gpu

 

 

OR that?

https://www.techpowerup.com/gpudb/2876/playstation-4-pro-gpu

https://www.techpowerup.com/gpudb/2085/playstation-4-gpu

 

So why shouldn't there be a contract where AMD designes the GPU, holds the licenses and everything else is up to Apple??

"Hell is full of good meanings, but Heaven is full of good works"

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