Nvidia might delay RTX 40 series on account of a 30 series market flood

[Rym]

 

 

Summary

 Due to an oversupply of used RTX 30 series GPUs, as well as board partners and retailers having too many GPUs, Nvidia is considering delaying the release of the RTX 40 series GPUs.

 

Quotes

Quote

 Sources close to YouTuber Moore’s Law Is Dead say that the bulk of supply for RTX 4000 GPUs was “supposed to hit in October, but now it may actually be postponed to December.” This doesn’t mean that Nvidia won’t announce and launch cards like the RTX 4090 before then, but you may have trouble getting your hands on one until that time.

 

My thoughts

 Well, how do I put this gently? 

 

That is entirely NOT my problem, Nvidia knew they were selling everything they had to miners, I called out mining 2 years ago as being a short term thing and it will come crashing down while I ignored the naysayers. All those used GPUs would obviously find their way on the used market, driving the prices down. I thought about getting an RTX 4080-4090 but now I'm also hearing Nvidia trying to cause an artificial shortage to drive the prices of their new GPUs up. Honestly I will now very likely go for an AMD RX 7900 XT especially since it's looking to release earlier than Nvidia gpus. I'm also hearing people will not be buying an Nvidia GPU due to pure spite of what they did for 2 years to their tried and true customers. AMD on the other hand doesn't have this oversupply issue since they never made that many GPUs for miners to begin with and are looking to release their GPUs very soon.

 

Sources

 https://www.pcgamesn.com/nvidia/rtx-4000-gpu-launch-delay-geforce-3000-oversupply

[pas008]

oh evil nvidia looking out for their best interest because thats what businesses do lol

2 whole months lol end of the world

 

 

[Fasauceome]

At least Intel will be happy about this, on account of their intended performance target against the 30 series lineup

[Motifator]

7 minutes ago, pas008 said:

oh evil nvidia looking out for their best interest because thats what businesses do lol

2 whole months lol end of the world

Of course, what else do we expect out of a company that names and icons themselves after a green beast with a snake that stands for the greed god in mythology? If my Nvidia card held no financial value to itself, I might as well burn it with fire because it holds zero sentimental value either to me.

I have it only because G-Sync monitor.

[Poinkachu]

25 minutes ago, Rym said:

I'm also hearing people will not be buying an Nvidia GPU due to pure spite of what they did for 2 years to their tried and true customers.

Haha, if the community capable of pulling through with this kinda movement. Pretty sure Nvidia or other pc part company won't be able to pull much shit move.

Even during GPUpocalypse some people still buy anyway, even if it's at jacked up price.

 

Quote

I'm also hearing Nvidia trying to cause an artificial shortage to drive the prices of their new GPUs up

Me, I have a firm belief that i'ts quite impossible for a company as big as Nvidia to not be able to predict demand like during lockdown era, at the very least to some extent.
Even opening a small business you need to predict the market to some extent. A company that big gonna have teams dedicated for market prediction.
Everybody on lockdown, everybody had to work from home, but MSRP decrease by a lot? from Nvidia?. That's pretty much a move against basic profit hoarding.

[Spotty]

52 minutes ago, Rym said:

Sources close to YouTuber Moore’s Law Is Dead say

LOL

I don't know how anyone could take anything he says seriously.

Edited July 11, 2022 by Spotty

[Alex Atkin UK]

5 minutes ago, Poinkachu said:

Haha, if the community capable of pulling through with this kinda movement. Pretty sure Nvidia or other pc part company won't be able to pull much shit move.

Even during GPUpocalypse some people still buy anyway, even if it's at jacked up price.

 

Me, I have a firm belief that i'ts quite impossible for a company as big as Nvidia to not be able to predict demand like during lockdown era, at the very least to some extent.
Even opening a small business you need to predict the market to some extent. A company that big gonna have teams dedicated for market prediction.
Everybody on lockdown, everybody had to work from home, but MSRP decrease by a lot? from Nvidia?. That's pretty much a move against basic profit hoarding.

So you think they could predict that we would have a pandemic at the exact same moment mining was at its peak?

Plus all the predicting in the world can't help when you have a finite amount of production capacity you ordered years ago.

And during all that you expected them to REDUCE prices?  That would literally kill the company as they would be sued to oblivion by their shareholders.

You don't REDUCE prices when you're short on stock, the price goes up due to demand.  I hate it as much as anyone (food prices have doubled in the UK) but its how capitalism works and why its inherently a bad system without regulation.

[Motifator]

Just now, Alex Atkin UK said:

So you think they could predict that we would have a pandemic at the exact same moment mining was at its peak?

Plus all the predicting in the world can't help when you have a finite amount of production capacity you ordered years ago.

And during all that you expected them to REDUCE prices?  That would literally kill the company as they would be sued to oblivion by their shareholders.

You don't REDUCE prices when you're short on stock, the price goes up due to demand.  I hate it as much as anyone (food prices have doubled in the UK) but its how capitalism works and why its inherently a bad system without regulation.

Are you aware that they also hiked the prices of cards incapable of mining to moon? Even alternative coins like ryo, a 1030 for example can't mine for jack, but ALL cards were increased to moon and beyond in ONE day. If that's not artificial then I don't know what is.

[Alex Atkin UK]

1 minute ago, Motifator said:

Are you aware that they also hiked the prices of cards incapable of mining to moon? Even alternative coins like ryo, a 1030 for example can't mine for jack, but ALL cards were increased to moon and beyond in ONE day. If that's not artificial then I don't know what is.

NVIDIA didn't hike the prices though, retailers did.

[Motifator]

Just now, Alex Atkin UK said:

NVIDIA didn't hike the prices though, retailers did.

You would expect they could regulate the retailers to not do such acts though, such as, how they limit cards to one per individual on their own store pages when it comes to high end products. They were aware that this was going to happen and they profited off it. In fact, they were charged to court for this IIRC.

[maartendc]

Boy, that turned sour for them pretty fast...

 

At the start of 2022, they couldn't keep enough GPU's on shelves. Now, only 6 months later, there is an oversupply and they cannot even give them away.

 

It turned very quickly from:

- Miners buying everything to --> miners selling off their rigs.

- People wanting to spend money --> People holding off spending due to inflation

- People being drawn to 30 series --> people holding off for 40 series later this year.

 

I am seeing in my local market (EU) the first signs that miners are liquidating their GPU's. Sellers on second hand websites with 5+ GPU's for sale, some acknowledging that they were used for mining. 

 

At the same time new GPU's prices have fallen off a cliff, although still at or above MSRP in most cases. They will have to drop prices even further, to BELOW MSRP, if they are ever to sell all the stock they have left.

 

I am thinking of waiting a few more months, and then snapping up a dirt cheap used 20 or 30 series. Pricing will continue to fall off a cliff. Time to finally replace my old 980Ti.

[porina]

Doesn't matter how big a company is, prediction is very difficult. A lot of factors are outside their control, and they have to make decisions long into the future, over a year or more. I'm sure they made allowances for mining, but knowing the exact moment to turn the tap down is next to impossible. Too soon, more shortages. Too late, oversupply. You just have to manage as best you can either way.

 

With a dose of "is it really delayed if they never gave a date" a later release is probably not too bad a thing, as long as it is due to market conditions and not manufacturing problems. They can build up more stock for launch to help prevent any spikes from demand.

[porina]

1 minute ago, maartendc said:

- People wanting to spend money --> People holding off spending due to inflation

In high inflation people spend more, because the price will go up if they wait. Offsetting that, we have economic uncertainty. That is when people save rather than spend. It could still go either way.

[maartendc]

5 minutes ago, Alex Atkin UK said:

NVIDIA didn't hike the prices though, retailers did.

It is possible Nvidia charged more to their AIB's behind the scenes, although we will never know for sure. They did profit from higher pricing on founders' edition cards they sell direct to consumers.

 

Also Nvidia purposely inflated the MSRP of new models introduced during the shortage, so they did directly increase pricing on their end. The 1080Ti was WAAAY more expensive MSRP than the 3080 for example: $699 USD vs $1190, for very little performance gain. Why? To make sure they are getting a bigger piece of the pie. It was reported the only reason they made so many new SKU's of products was in order to capitalize on the newly inflated market.

 

A final point is the release of the 1630, a terrible value product, that they could only hope to sell in a market that suffers from terrible shortages. They planned this release during the shortage, and now it is blatantly evident it is just a ripoff.

 

Not saying I would expect anything else from Nvidia, but it is what it is.

[maartendc]

4 minutes ago, porina said:

In high inflation people spend more, because the price will go up if they wait. Offsetting that, we have economic uncertainty. That is when people save rather than spend. It could still go either way.

You are not wrong, but I am more referring to the fact that due to inflation, people need to spend more of their money on housing, gasoline, etc. So they would cut back spending on trivial things like graphics cards.

[porina]

8 minutes ago, maartendc said:

Also Nvidia purposely inflated the MSRP of new models introduced during the shortage, so they did directly increase pricing on their end. The 1080Ti was WAAAY more expensive MSRP than the 3080 for example: $699 USD vs $1190, for very little performance gain. Why? To make sure they are getting a bigger piece of the pie. It was reported the only reason they made so many new SKU's of products was in order to capitalize on the newly inflated market.

The MSRPs of the new models were set to better reflect the changing realities of the world. Everything is going up. The Ampere launch day pricing is unlikely to ever return. Where I am, used 3080 GPUs are still selling for more than that on ebay even with the so called flood of mining cards. AMD are also affected, with 6800XT still above MSRP, keeping in mind there are more factors at play here such as AMD generally being less desirable at a given marketing tier.

 

Presuming you meant 2080Ti, the 3080 is significantly higher performance as it is the 3070 that goes against the 2080Ti. The old process used on Turing made it a bit of a monster to make hence the high cost. 

 

8 minutes ago, maartendc said:

A final point is the release of the 1630, a terrible value product, that they could only hope to sell in a market that suffers from terrible shortages. They planned this release during the shortage, and now it is blatantly evident it is just a ripoff.

The 1630 serves a specific part of the market that is not performance gaming oriented. In that it does what it is set out to do. 

[Motifator]

1 minute ago, porina said:

The 1630 serves a specific part of the market that is not performance gaming oriented. In that it does what it is set out to do. 

It actually serves no part of the market at all, it's a complete joke of a card and fails to deliver in all fronts... lol.

[porina]

1 minute ago, Motifator said:

It actually serves no part of the market at all, it's a complete joke of a card and fails to deliver in all fronts... lol.

Some said similar about the 1030 and 1650, both of which I own. The 1630 is a cheaper alternative to the 1650 and replaces older x50 tier products. Low power (no PCIe connector required), not primarily gaming performance orientated, where you want to make use of other GPU features like encoding/decoding or want more outputs.

 

Regardless even if you fail to see any use for the card, those that do will continue to buy them. fps/$ is not the only deciding factor.

[Blademaster91]

13 minutes ago, Motifator said:

It actually serves no part of the market at all, it's a complete joke of a card and fails to deliver in all fronts... lol.

Agreed, its no different than the RX6500XT, a useless card out so marketing can say theres are card at a lower price point.

43 minutes ago, Motifator said:

You would expect they could regulate the retailers to not do such acts though, such as, how they limit cards to one per individual on their own store pages when it comes to high end products. They were aware that this was going to happen and they profited off it. In fact, they were charged to court for this IIRC.

The court case regarding the mining profits? IIRC Nvidia only got fined $5 million for that, barely a slap on the hand so i'm sure they'll do more shady things by delaying cards until used stuff sells off then artificially short supply or sell cards to miners again.

 

[MageTank]

On 7/11/2022 at 11:16 AM, Motifator said:

You would expect they could regulate the retailers to not do such acts though, such as, how they limit cards to one per individual on their own store pages when it comes to high end products. They were aware that this was going to happen and they profited off it. In fact, they were charged to court for this IIRC.

They can, and did, but only with their FE cards. I guarantee you that you never saw Best Buy, Newegg or Micro Center selling FE GPUs at a markup because its stipulated in Nvidia's terms that you sell them for what they sell them in their web store. AIB pricing however, can be anything. Nvidia will give a "suggested price", but AIBs are free to charge whatever they want.

 

There are plenty of reasons for people to have a moral disapproval of Nvidia, but their pricing during the shortage/pandemic is not one of them.

 

On 7/11/2022 at 11:26 AM, maartendc said:

It is possible Nvidia charged more to their AIB's behind the scenes, although we will never know for sure. They did profit from higher pricing on founders' edition cards they sell direct to consumers.

 

Also Nvidia purposely inflated the MSRP of new models introduced during the shortage, so they did directly increase pricing on their end. The 1080Ti was WAAAY more expensive MSRP than the 3080 for example: $699 USD vs $1190, for very little performance gain. Why? To make sure they are getting a bigger piece of the pie. It was reported the only reason they made so many new SKU's of products was in order to capitalize on the newly inflated market.

 

A final point is the release of the 1630, a terrible value product, that they could only hope to sell in a market that suffers from terrible shortages. They planned this release during the shortage, and now it is blatantly evident it is just a ripoff.

 

Not saying I would expect anything else from Nvidia, but it is what it is.

They didn't. I know this because we order their parts for SI in bulk. If they were going to charge ASUS and EVGA more for their chips, they would have charged us and other down-stream buyers more for the exact same silicon. The reason for the price increase was pretty straight-forward. Tariffs on raw materials coupled with reduced production from a pandemic mixed with a massive increase in demand, both from stimulus checks as well as people working from home and convincing their employers that they need a fancy high-end gaming system to get their work done. I know this because we were guilty of exploiting this exact market and had record sales, lol.

 

I also question your logic behind "Nvidia purposely inflated the MSRP of new models introduced during the shortage". How exactly did they do this? Are you accusing them of using the shortage to justify the increase in price? Because I can wager they did this as they had zero competition in those markets from their competitors. What is AMD's answer to the 3090 Ti? The 3080 12GB is actually a far better deal than the 3080 Ti and completely cannibalized those cards to the point where we won't even buy the 3080 Ti for SI in bulk anymore. In fact, the 12GB 3080 even trades blows with the original 3090 for less than half the price, so if anything, Nvidia provided even cheaper options to their high-end stack during the pandemic and shortage. Comparing it to Pascal is silly as Pascal isn't remotely close to Turing, let alone Ampere. We are talking different architectures with RT and tensor cores compared to a generation that lacked both. The 3000 series isn't anymore expensive than the 2000 series when comparing a 3080 Ti to 2080 Ti, FE MSRP to FE MSRP. Your point that Nvidia is exploiting a shortage simply isn't holding water here.

 

As for the GTX 1630, you act like the xx30 cards have never existed. They charged $80 for the GT 1030, and the GTX 1630 is significantly faster (40% on average). Now whether it deserves to exist in the market, that is debatable, though I am personally inclined to agree with you here thanks to the availability of Ryzen APUs. You can get a 5600G from Micro Center for $160, the same MSRP as the GTX 1630, and have a CPU thrown in for free if all you need is basic monitor support. Is this Nvidia exploiting a GPU shortage? Probably, as this at least holds more water than your previous examples. Though I am equally inclined to believe this is just Nvidia poorly marketing and pricing their card because they thought adding the X on the end of GT would magically make it appeal to gamers, so they charged that "GTX" premium. Plot twist: Gamers didn't buy it, lol.

 

All that said, it's important that all of you with your pitchforks take a second to consider Hanlon's Razor. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor. Anyone that has ever worked for a company with a marketing department knows very well how this works, lol.

[Motifator]

33 minutes ago, porina said:

Some said similar about the 1030 and 1650, both of which I own. The 1630 is a cheaper alternative to the 1650 and replaces older x50 tier products. Low power (no PCIe connector required), not primarily gaming performance orientated, where you want to make use of other GPU features like encoding/decoding or want more outputs.

 

Regardless even if you fail to see any use for the card, those that do will continue to buy them. fps/$ is not the only deciding factor.

I do own a 1030, but it's only been used for pretty much screen output. You can argue on the encode part, but the encoder on those cards is also pretty weaksauce and actually competes with CPUs, which are priced equally while serving a better over all purpose... people buy them mindlessly, not because they're feature packed or anything. For FPS, you could have bought Polaris cards or even Nvidia's own 1060 (which I also happen to have) back in the day for much lower prices.

[PeachGr]

Reading your personal opinion... What a fanboy. The only right way to buy any product is to judge based on benchmarks for your personal needs and use cases and budget. It's actually good that they have a good marketing team to keep the lights on, even if you don't like it. On a business THAT big, you either be a good guy and die early, or you make as much money as possible and become the bigger fish

[Motifator]

21 minutes ago, PeachGr said:

Reading your personal opinion... What a fanboy. The only right way to buy any product is to judge based on benchmarks for your personal needs and use cases and budget. It's actually good that they have a good marketing team to keep the lights on, even if you don't like it. On a business THAT big, you either be a good guy and die early, or you make as much money as possible and become the bigger fish

Nvidia is a monopoly, they've become the big fish and they just eat the smaller ones. That's what they do to other companies, and you too as a consumer.

[PeachGr]

1 hour ago, Motifator said:

Nvidia is a monopoly, they've become the big fish and they just eat the smaller ones. That's what they do to other companies, and you too as a consumer.

if you were on 3D animation, you 'd know that everybody else is giving zero fucks for us, and Nvidia, as a monopoly, still provides big features for rendering, AI etc. So no, i will not crap on them for being expencive, i know they make about 60% profit per unit, but they still do things right and my world wouldnt be the same without them. Btw if i was a gamer only, i could have a different opinion, but untill then, Nvidia all the way

[porina]

5 minutes ago, PeachGr said:

i know they make about 60% profit per unit

For context, non-GAAP gross margin for some companies taken off official results where possible, didn't see an Apple one so data is indirect:

AMD: 53% Q1 2022

Apple: 43% Q1 2022 (unsure if GAAP or not)

Intel: 55.4% Q4 2021

nvidia: 67.0% Q4 FY22

 

Gross margin is the nearest thing we have to a profit measure, and simplified it is (revenue - cost of goods) / revenue. If you sell something that costs $1 to make at $2, that's 50% gross margin. Somewhere in the ball park of 50% is decent for a decent volume tech company. I would have expected Apple to be higher, but then again, maybe their products do cost more to make as a proportion of their selling price. Cost of goods I'm not sure the exact definition of, but it more directly relates to manufacturing only. Like Material/BOM cost, not sure if it includes transformation costs. Things like facilities, R&D, staff wont come under that. So if the GM sounds high, it is paying for all that other stuff too.

 

GAAP numbers are the official ones required and take everything into consideration. Non-GAAP generally focuses more on the core business and excludes exceptional costs, and may better represent the business functioning.