Nvidia might delay RTX 40 series on account of a 30 series market flood

[Video Beagle]

On 7/11/2022 at 1:25 PM, porina said:

one so data is indirect:

AMD: 53% Q1 2022

Apple: 43% Q1 2022 (unsure if GAAP or not)

Intel: 55.4% Q4 2021

nvidia: 67.0% Q4 FY22

Those are some fascinating figures.. I'd like to see @LinusTechor  @GabenJr  @James or @CPotter do a video exploring them.

[igormp]

33 minutes ago, Rauten said:

There were no distinctions in those posts, they referred to "gamers" in general.

And since my main hobby is gaming, I do consider myself a gamer.

 

I mean, just look at the post before yours:

Lovely.

If most "gamers" indeed do stupid things, then I belive it's expected that people will generalize. 

[Blademaster91]

1 hour ago, igormp said:

Do you really identify as one of those entitled gamers which need the 4000 series tomorrow and won't stand a company delaying their new toy while thinking that any other use case other than games is stupid? If so, I have bad news for you.

 

Otherwise, I don't see why you feel insulted.

Are you really going to generalize people and tell them what their purchase can be used for? Why can't I buy a card for gaming and work?

And when you make such generalizations of course its going to upset someone. I'm not really a gamer, I don't buy the latest titles or get obsessed over cranking everything to ultra settings, but insisting using a GPU for gaming is stupid is a really interesting assumption.

1 hour ago, igormp said:

They are a company that holds a monopoly in certain areas because they have no competition whatsoever, such as in the ML space, and it seems like other companies aren't even trying to catch up.

 

So yeah, they do perform some shitty practices, but for their end consumer they provide something that works and allow many people to make money out of it. I'm not willing to spend my money in a company that doesn't properly support my needs, or does it in a half-assed way, and you can believe that I really tried to make my work stuff work with AMD to no avail.

It doesn't even matter if Nvidia had competition, people will still buy Nvidia regardless because of the brand mindshare, I think people paying scalper level prices for RTX 3000 series cards, even though RX 6000 series cards were more available at lower prices really demonstrates people will still buy from Nvidia no matter what shitty things they do.

[Arika]

28 minutes ago, Blademaster91 said:

Are you really going to generalize people and tell them what their purchase can be used for? Why can't I buy a card for gaming and work?

People are generalised on this forum all the time, why is it only "gamers" that can't be generalised?

 

besides, pretty sure it was gamers calling for everyone; manufacturers, law makers, governments to put things in place so miners couldn't buy GPUs.

 

Disclaimer (since apparently you need it whenever you're not anti-miner): I don't mine, i'm not a miner, i hate cryptocurrency in all it's forms.

[IkeaGnome]

5 hours ago, Rauten said:

 

Wow.

 

Thank you so much for making others feel welcome here. I think it's the first time in many years I feel insulted in a forum.

Overgeneralizing is not a nice thing to do.

The irony is that at the beginning of the pandemic I would have been offended by that too. But then I realized that I am not more entitled to parts than someone else and upon a bit of self reflection I still game a lot, but know that I’m not special. 
if that offended you it might be time for some reflection. 
That being said, today is my Friday. I’ve got 2 weeks off. If I didn’t have company coming up for those two weeks I’d probably spend 8 hours a day playing games for the next 2 weeks. And I’ll still be sneaking games in where I can. 
I’d also appreciate if you realize I said BULK. Not EVERY. 

 

On 7/11/2022 at 4:53 PM, IkeaGnome said:

bulk of gamers are the bulk of PCMR

 

4 hours ago, Dracarris said:

 

But it's nice to see the LTT-Forum Mining-Circlejerk once again coming together

Over generalizations offended me. Let me use one to describe other people now. 
When in this thread has anyone been pro mining? Are we just swinging for left field here? 

[igormp]

1 hour ago, Blademaster91 said:

Are you really going to generalize people and tell them what their purchase can be used for

I'd love you to point out when I said what people need to use their gpus for. 

1 hour ago, Blademaster91 said:

Why can't I buy a card for gaming and work?

If you read my posts again, you're going to notice that I complained exactly about people who consider that GPUs are solely for gaming. 

1 hour ago, Blademaster91 said:

insisting using a GPU for gaming is stupid is a really interesting assumption.

I really think you should improve your reading comprehension, what I said was:

2 hours ago, igormp said:

while thinking that any other use case other than games is stupid?

In case you're not aware, many said gamers were complaining a lot in this forum about people using GPUs for anything else other than games, and I was making a point about them, and not saying that using a gpu for games is stupid. 

[MageTank]

6 hours ago, Rauten said:

 

Wow.

 

Thank you so much for making others feel welcome here. I think it's the first time in many years I feel insulted in a forum.

Overgeneralizing is not a nice thing to do.

Pointing out hypocrisy isn't exactly making people feel "unwelcomed", is it? Besides, I actually agree with you, overgeneralizing isn't a nice thing to do. It's why I get annoyed when people criticize someone for using their money on a hobby they enjoy simply because they do not understand the appeal. Like miners do to gamers and gamers do to miners. If people don't feel welcome for legitimate criticism, they may want to reflect on exactly why they are being critiqued. Now if the gamers of this forum would get off their high horses and stop crusading against other peoples hobbies, I'd gladly refrain from gross overgeneralizations. Unfortunately, they are the only source of "gamers" I am exposed to these days, lol.

 

5 hours ago, Dracarris said:

I think you need to check your sources again, last I checked it was more like 57% with certified Garbage monitors (TM).

 

But it's nice to see the LTT-Forum Mining-Circlejerk once again coming together, reassuring each other how great of an idea mining is and how collectively stupid gamers are.

Make no mistake, I am no miner. I also don't even believe in the value of crypto currency. You will never find a post on this forum where I am for mining. I am very much (and always have been) a proponent of people being free to spend their money how they see fit without being criticized on how they spend that money. This forum in particular has always been anti-mining as a majority and often grasp for false altruism as an attempt to guise their true reasoning behind why they want mining to die. "It's bad for the environment!", yet these same people will spend hours gaming on the exact same hardware with no care for what their hobby does for the environment. They rationalize it by saying "well what I do isn't as bad, therefore it shouldn't be viewed in the same lens". This is why I often give "gamers" the short end of the stick here, because almost every miner that I encounter seems to at least understand their hobby is god-awful for the environment and at least own up to it. Does that mean I agree with what they are doing? Absolutely not, but I still stand behind them having the option to use their hardware as they see fit, because they spent their own money doing it. After all, if gamers are going to go after miners because they see their hobby as a pointless waste of natural resources, it won't be long before they come after us overclockers for the exact same line of thinking, lol.

 

With all of that said, I'll reiterate my point so it does not get misconstrued. I do not think gamers are "collectively stupid". I think they have an overabundance of entitlement as evidenced by the majority of posts on this forum whenever the subject of GPU availability shows up. I am also equally critical against the miners that try to pressure people into getting into crypto because "it's the future and you'll be sorry for waiting". I despise this as it ends up being predatory at worst, and ill-informed at best. If you need further evidence to where I stand on this, just consult Past MageTank, that guy is a genius:

In the above post, I would like to further highlight the following paragraph:

On 4/12/2022 at 2:13 PM, MageTank said:

This overcomplication and pointless caring for how others choose to spend their money and free time baffles me on this forum. We go in these same circles time and time again any time mining is brought up. People get upset that people are using their hardware for something they themselves do not believe in, miners counter the argument with gamers doing the same thing. Gamers get mad and change their narrative to environmental impact as a means of false altruism, miners get mad and pretend their undervolts are sufficient to consume less power than "gaming PC's" and the conflict never ends. People on this forum will put more effort into arguing with each other over mining/gaming in their basements while letting the companies that produce these products get off free without the same scrutiny even though the company is doing more environmental damage than the actual individuals. Still, as long as it fits our personal narrative, it's fine, right?

Now that I think about it, maybe I am making both sides feel "unwelcome", lol.

[Quackers101]

with the price going so much up and down on GPUs, it just shows how bad the market can be.

You have GPU prices that are down 20-40%, but some are also going back up again by a decent %. Still not too great, but might become more on the used market? hopefully.

 

but it seems like maybe the overall high end cards drops a bit more stable, and hope with the mining and other stuff calming down, that lower end cards can become more reasonable. Unlike pushing an 1630 GPU when one would need 2050-2060 cards at the low end market. Just need un-TI cards, while TI's and super cards are where? only when you can bring in the greens, smoking them 24/7.

 

some being very much US based, while some you can see in the EU too.

which doesn't make it too much better when youtubers shout that "buy now!!" as in "now is the time!".

Edited July 13, 2022 by Quackers101

[xAcid9]

Quote

Sources close to YouTuber Moore’s Law Is Dead say..

Ayyyy.. lmao. *go back to play my games*

[Video Beagle]

On 7/11/2022 at 8:19 AM, Rym said:

Sources close to YouTuber Moore’s Law Is Dead say

,,,,why are we getting sources reports? If this guy is a youtuber, shouldn't we know what he says?

[jagdtigger]

20 hours ago, MageTank said:

"It's bad for the environment!", yet these same people will spend hours gaming on the exact same hardware with no care for what their hobby does for the environment.

Apple vs orange, aside from a few extreme examples ppl dont game 24/7.

[Zodiark1593]

21 hours ago, MageTank said:

 

In the above post, I would like to further highlight the following paragraph:

Now that I think about it, maybe I am making both sides feel "unwelcome", lol.

You’re not truly a centrist unless you regularly piss off both sides.

 

 

My take is that Nvidia can do what they want. Their product to release as they see fit. Not as though the top end 3090 TI is “slow” by any stretch of the imagination, and not as though the 40 series will be pushing anything decent into the sub-$200 range anytime soon, even if cards launched today. So whatever. 

[05032-Mendicant-Bias]

On 7/13/2022 at 12:32 AM, LAwLz said:

That idiot "Moore's Law is Dead" is wrong more often than a broken clock

Yeah, I also dislike that when Moore's Law is Dead happens to be right, he gloat about his correct prediction. I unsubscribed a while back, it's not the kind of content I like.

I wonder how much Nvidia can really delay the 4000 series. Nvidia booked a huge amount of TSMC allocation, and Nvidia really milked the mining boom for all its worth. Nvidia mislead investors for the third time misrepresenting transient mining demand as baseline demand, and that's on the board of directors. I speculate product release will go on as usual, and I speculate the 4000 series will be as popular as 2000 series.

Justice moves slow, SEC only fined a few month ago Nvidia for lying about 2017 mining demand and it was just a 5.5 million dollar fine. It's just more profitable to lie now and use a portion of the profits to pay a fine later.

[igormp]

6 minutes ago, Zodiark1593 said:

and not as though the 40 series will be pushing anything decent into the sub-$200 range anytime soon, even if cards launched today. So whatever. 

I doubt we'll even see a sub-$200 40 series GPU in the next year or so, the newest 1630 has a MSRP of $170 (which is already bonkers), and I doubt they'll replace it that soon.

[MageTank]

2 hours ago, jagdtigger said:

Apple vs orange, aside from a few extreme examples ppl dont game 24/7.

That simply plays back into the "Well mine isn't as bad, so it's okay" logic that I also mentioned. You can't care about the environmental impact yet ignore environmental damage on a sliding scale as a means of justifying your hobbies. Again, if this false altruism didn't exist as a counterpoint in the argument, I would be perfectly fine, it's just the hypocrisy that annoys me. 

 

I might be one of the few "extreme examples" you referenced when it comes to gaming 24/7. I have vivid memories of doing so back when I played older MMO's. In Silkroad Online circa 2005, we all used bot programs to play the game for us because the game was extremely grindy and everyone was doing it. In 9Dragons, I would go outside, grab a heavy rock and place it on a button that corresponded to a skill just to level that skill up overnight (dubbed it the rock.exe program). In Perfect World, we found exploits where mobs would spawn infinitely, so we had characters spam an AOE all night long just to wake up with extra levels.

 

Computers weren't as power hungry back then, but we definitely kept the games on all night long, lol.

[Zodiark1593]

1 hour ago, igormp said:

I doubt we'll even see a sub-$200 40 series GPU in the next year or so, the newest 1630 has a MSRP of $170 (which is already bonkers), and I doubt they'll replace it that soon.

Is that thing even any faster than the GTX 960 I bought brand new for about the same price, 7 years ago?

 

Seems that anything under $200 is becoming that no-man’s land that Linus always harps on about for having utterly crap value. Not even AMD has anything really compelling there anymore. 

[Dracarris]

14 minutes ago, MageTank said:

That simply plays back into the "Well mine isn't as bad, so it's okay" logic that I also mentioned.

The average gamer uses their GPU at full blast for a tiny fraction of the time a miner does - and almost always only operates a single GPU. It does make a significant difference, period.

 

Yes, doing the same thing 10- or 100-fold less bad is relevant.

[Moonzy]

1 hour ago, Dracarris said:

Yes, doing the same thing 10- or 100-fold less bad is relevant.

here we go again, lol

 

Quote

"Everyone draws the line of what's acceptable just beneath what they're doing themselves." - Tom Scott

 

[MageTank]

8 minutes ago, Dracarris said:

The average gamer uses their GPU at full blast for a tiny fraction of the time a miner does - and almost always only operates a single GPU. It does make a significant difference, period.

 

Yes, doing the same thing 10- or 100-fold less bad is relevant.

Quote

"Evil is evil, Stregobor. Lesser, greater, middling, it's all the same. Proportions are negotiated, boundaries blurred" - White Haired Monster Hunter Man, 2019

 

[jagdtigger]

1 hour ago, MageTank said:

That simply plays back into

your flawed logic, keep making all the false comparisons you want, wont make any of them less false. The fact that mining operations can disrupt electricity service and get booted because of that is a pretty solid evidence why you simply cannot mention gaming and mining in the same league....

[MageTank]

1 hour ago, jagdtigger said:

your flawed logic, keep making all the false comparisons you want, wont make any of them less false. The fact that mining operations can disrupt electricity service and get booted because of that is a pretty solid evidence why you simply cannot mention gaming and mining in the same league....

The logic isn't flawed at all. You cannot make it a moral issue, then claim moral superiority because your hobby is less harmful. The issue is that similar analogies would be viewed as a strawman which I refuse to do. Much like comparing this to an apples & oranges or false equivalence fallacy would technically also fall into that category. The irony of the situation is that this very topic is a fallacy in and of itself, specifically suppressed correlative. If my argument is that both gaming and mining are bad for the environment, you can't simply counter this claim by saying "gaming is less harmful, so this isn't relevant". You are not refuting my claim that both are harmful, you are attempting to justify your opinion in the matter as a means of supplementing what you believe is the moral or logical outcome.

 

That said, lets humor your logic here. If I, as a gamer am going to call into question the moral implications of minings impact on the environment, is my lesser impact automatically free from the same scrutiny because the scale is smaller? Am I not to be seen as hypocritical by supplementing my disdain towards miners by using a moral stance, when I myself am taking no additional measures to appease the moral concern I am referencing?

 

I am not arguing that one side is more environmentally impactful than the other.  I am simply arguing that people cannot claim moral superiority by using this as an excuse as to why gamers "deserve" the cards more, when both sides are objectively bad for the environment. If you throw more apples and oranges at me, I'll start throwing watermelons back.

 

 

[ewitte]

2 hours ago, Dracarris said:

The average gamer uses their GPU at full blast for a tiny fraction of the time a miner does - and almost always only operates a single GPU. It does make a significant difference, period.

 

Yes, doing the same thing 10- or 100-fold less bad is relevant.

Fully tuned I was pulling about 220W mining on my 3080 even that was enough to make the office uncomfortably warm.

[ewitte]

4 hours ago, igormp said:

I doubt we'll even see a sub-$200 40 series GPU in the next year or so, the newest 1630 has a MSRP of $170 (which is already bonkers), and I doubt they'll replace it that soon.

Seems you have to get to 300-400 before the cards start to get decent...

[igormp]

3 hours ago, Zodiark1593 said:

Is that thing even any faster than the GTX 960 I bought brand new for about the same price, 7 years ago?

 

Seems that anything under $200 is becoming that no-man’s land that Linus always harps on about for having utterly crap value. Not even AMD has anything really compelling there anymore. 

Seems like it is a tid little bit faster, but not by much. The sub $200 market died after the rx470/570, sadly.

[Kisai]

7 hours ago, Zodiark1593 said:

 

 

Seems that anything under $200 is becoming that no-man’s land that Linus always harps on about for having utterly crap value. Not even AMD has anything really compelling there anymore. 

Cause anything below the "x60" tier on Geforce is a crap value, low performance, utterly setting your money on fire. The mainline part is the x70 part if you have a 1080p60+ but below 4Kp60 performance target The x60 part is just barely cracks 1080p60 performance at present, but x50(ti) parts are pretty much 1080p non-gaming parts at this point.

 

eg, if you're using a device with an x50 part or below, you likely would not notice a significant enough improvement in a linear upgrade to another x50 part. Like if you look on benchmarks, usually the x50 DESKTOP part is equal to the x70 part of the previous LAPTOP's generation. What does that tell you of the x50 LAPTOP's performance? Equal to the x30? Equal to Intel's iGPU UHD 770?

Note how the 30 series 60Ti and 70 are the only 30 series parts with a "good value", but even then that's well below 4 other x60 series cards. The 3070 has to drop to $459 USD to become the best value, or the 3060Ti has to drop to $419, so in both cases they need a $100 price drop. 

 

Meanwhile the 3080 has the worst value below x50 parts, and the 3090 has a value worse than the GT 1030. Both of those cards would have to drop below $559 before they would be a good value, and even then, they're not energy efficient.

 

The trouble with comparing value of a card, is that below a certain point (eg x60 parts), the value doesn't matter. You are buying a card because you have a high-enough end monitor to justify it. Are people buying HDR monitors? No. Are people buying 4K monitors? Yes and No.

 

The steam hardware survey doesn't reflect the value at all, with all top 9 cards all being x60 or x50 parts. This largely is reflective of the parts found in low end desktops over the last 3 years. Those x70 parts? Largely reflective of what was available during the 30 launch at Dell and HP. No AMD parts until the 15th line which is the APU/iGPU part, with only the RX 580 in the 19th slot. Intel UHD, doesn't crack the top 20.