A report that Apple has apparently secured 80% of TSMCs 5nm production throughout 2021 emerges

[porina]

50 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

80% seems disproportionately large though.

Share is only part of the equation. It might mean one of two things:

1, If TSMC has a high capacity, Apple really expects to make a LOT of product.

2, If TSMC has a low capacity, Apple just got what it needs, which happens to be most of that low capacity. They certainly have the wallet to make sure they get what they want.

 

43 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

If TSMC is going to be churning out basically nothing but M1s then what are the chances of Apple just buying the fab outright? Surely its cheaper in the long run to buy the fab than it is to keep paying huge sums each quarter to reserve so much fab space?

Had to look it up, TSMC isn't small by any means, and is ball park 20-25% the size of Apple. Apple might have the cash lying around to do that if they want to, but of industry acquisitions this could be more difficult that others in recent past.

 

34 minutes ago, Shorty88jr said:

Yep AMD might have just knocked themselves right out of existence with their lack of stock. Looks like they missed the fab allocation bus and this could put them way behind.

It isn't first come first served but more complicated than that. As much as AMD have been praised for outsourcing to fabs, this is one of the inherent risks with that operation model.

 

Also, has everyone forgotten about 7nm already? That is still there. It is still great.

 

23 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

Nvidia took all of Samsung's space for Ampere and now Apple took all of TSMC's space.

Nvidia took some of Samsung's capacity. How much that is of Samsung's total capacity, if you know that, I'd be interested.

[Master Disaster]

6 minutes ago, porina said:

Share is only part of the equation. It might mean one of two things:

1, If TSMC has a high capacity, Apple really expects to make a LOT of product.

2, If TSMC has a low capacity, Apple just got what it needs, which happens to be most of that low capacity. They certainly have the wallet to make sure they get what they want.

 

Had to look it up, TSMC isn't small by any means, and is ball park 20-25% the size of Apple. Apple might have the cash lying around to do that if they want to, but of industry acquisitions this could be more difficult that others in recent past.

 

It isn't first come first served but more complicated than that. As much as AMD have been praised for outsourcing to fabs, this is one of the inherent risks with that operation model.

 

Also, has everyone forgotten about 7nm already? That is still there. It is still great.

 

Nvidia took some of Samsung's capacity. How much that is of Samsung's total capacity, if you know that, I'd be interested.

Afraid I don't, I found an article that said Samsung's total 5nm output capacity is around 20% less than TSMCs but that doesn't really help to work it out.

[TargetDron3]

1 hour ago, Master Disaster said:

If TSMC is going to be churning out basically nothing but M1s then what are the chances of Apple just buying the fab outright? Surely its cheaper in the long run to buy the fab than it is to keep paying huge sums each quarter to reserve so much fab space?

Because TSMC can now raise the rate at which it leases fab space/time. Supply and demand. 

Besides, apple hasn't moved it's other production in house. It's still mostly made by Foxconn. Apple has the resources to set up their own factories but they have done the numbers and determined it's cheaper to do it this way. Besides, the 80% is just for the 5nm fab. Which isn't near the top of TSMCs production capability. 

Apple needs lots of chips now because they know their customer base will rush to get the new computers then in the following year demand will lower. 

[GDRRiley]

apples always been the pipe cleaner on new nodes. how is this a surprise? I'm sure AMD will be able to get capacity when they need it.

[Master Disaster]

7 minutes ago, TargetDron3 said:

Besides, the 80% is just for the 5nm fab. Which isn't near the top of TSMCs production capability.

That's part of the problem though, AMD need 5nm fab space right now for RDNA2 and they have Zen 4 planned for 2021 that also needs 5nm. By the end of 2021 AMD is going to need more 5nm than 7nm and it seems like TSMC has sold most of what they have for the entire year to Apple.

 

This might even have a knock on effect for Sony & Microsoft.

[porina]

5 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

This might even have a knock on effect for Sony & Microsoft.

I think they'll be least affected if you're thinking game consoles. They're designed for 7nm so they can stay on 7nm, capacity which might get freed if other things manage to move to 5nm. I guess we can't rule out a 5nm refresh for the consoles at some point, but I'd guess that'll be much later on. Also I have to wonder how far are we to satisfying the demand for those consoles... we're very much in the deployment phase, and it'll take some time for those who want to get one early and we settle down to a lower ongoing rate.

[RejZoR]

I don't see anything wrong with this. Apple buys the manufacturing capacity. Instead of blaming Apple, go and blame TSMC for not expanding their capacities for higher demands.

[AlTech]

1 hour ago, DrMacintosh said:

Isn't this business as usual? Mobile partners have always taken up the majority of this business. 

Traditionally yes because AMD traditionally only used Samsung or Global Foundry based nodes for their products but they moved almost all of them to TSMC. The only exception being Zen IO dies and the newly announced re-cycled Zen+ APUs for Chromebooks.

 

Now that AMD has moved almost everything to TSMC this is going to be a big problem for RDNA3 and Zen 4.

[Master Disaster]

2 minutes ago, AluminiumTech said:

Traditionally yes because AMD traditionally only used Samsung for their products but they moved almost all of them to TSMC. The only exception being Zen IO dies and the newly announced re-cycled Zen+ APUs for Chromebooks.

 

Now that AMD has moved almost everything to TSMC this is going to be a big problem for RDNA3 and Zen 4.

Wait, so am I mistaken in thinking RDNA2 is already on 5nm?

[AlTech]

Just now, Master Disaster said:

Wait, so am I mistaken in thinking RDNA2 is already on 5nm?

RDNA2 is still on TSMC 7nm although I don't know if it's on N7P or just N7.

[AlTech]

36 minutes ago, GDRRiley said:

apples always been the pipe cleaner on new nodes.

Not always.

 

AMD was a pipe cleaner on one of TSMC's 7nm nodes (not sure if it was N7 or something else) with Radeon VII and Vega 20 dies.

36 minutes ago, GDRRiley said:

how is this a surprise? I'm sure AMD will be able to get capacity when they need it.

The problem is I think AMD is going to need it a lot sooner rather than later.

 

I see AMD needing 5nm supply in August or September 2021 for a November 2021 RDNA3 and Zen 4 launch.

[Blade of Grass]

7 hours ago, Shorty88jr said:

80%! C'mon that just insane their isn't any need to Apple to screw over the rest of the computer industry for this. Their are already enough shortages as is. I understand TSMC doesn't care because it's still cash in their pocket but I'm sick of this bull crap stock levels. Apple isn't the only company who needs to make chips. If TSMC is the only one who can do these fabs on a large scale (I know samsung exist just not at this level)then I think it's time to look into breaking up the monopoly.

What a weird way to attribute this. Apple wants X number of chips built, they place an order with TSMC for them. Those X number of chips happens to be Y% of TSMC’s capacity. Apple isn’t trying to screw anyone out of anything, this is how relationship with suppliers go, you place an order and they tell you if they can do it W.R.T. their other pending orders.  
 

Also, how are they going to “break up the monopoly”? Fab is a high barrier to entry business and TSMC is in their position because they’ve developed significant IP internally to allow themselves to do so well. What’s a regulator going to do, force them to share their IP so their competitors can suck less? 

[StDragon]

Somewhere deep inside Intel, they're laughing bouts of insanity.

[AlTech]

7 minutes ago, Blade of Grass said:

Also, how are they going to “break up the monopoly”? Fab is a high barrier to entry business and TSMC is in their position because they’ve developed significant IP internally to allow themselves to do so well. What’s a regulator going to do, force them to share their IP so their competitors can suck less? 

To be honest I think Nvidia ordering from Samsung for the 30 series and 30 series SUPER refresh is more likely to start to break up TSMC's monopoly.

 

The theory being that Nvidia might force Samsung to not be so bad at big dies and so Samsung would be able to produce High Performance dies which are close to TSMC performance without the penalty of needing to go to TSMC.

 

Cos right now Samsung nodes are super amazing for Low Power but they suck as soon as you try to make large dies.

[Amias]

TSMC needs to build some more fabs ... asap.

[jagdtigger]

1 minute ago, Amias said:

TSMC needs to build some more fabs ... asap.

Unless someone signs a long term contract with them covering most of the capacity of the new fabs they wont.

[Amias]

6 minutes ago, jagdtigger said:

Unless someone signs a long term contract with them covering most of the capacity of the new fabs they wont.

 

I dunno. Seems like not doing that is going to just leave money on the table? You're now the sole supplier of not only Apple's entire mobile market CPU's but you're now moving to their desktop/laptop market too.

 

Then you've got AMD driving in with their ever increasing CPU share ... plus maybe GPU. Plus the two largest console manufacturers primary APU.

 

Qualcomm will want to start spitting out 5nm chips, Microsoft will have to push into ARM mobile chipsets, so that entire mobile PC market.

 

There's rumours Nvidia might be switching over to TMSC ...

 

Seems like their market for 5nm has barely even started. I dunno, if I was pushing a new chipset ... anything not sub 7nm is going to look naff.

[StDragon]

12 minutes ago, jagdtigger said:

Unless someone signs a long term contract with them covering most of the capacity of the new fabs they wont.

More info on AnandTech

 

Quote

 TSMC has announced that the company will be building a new, high-end fab in Arizona. The facility, set to come online in 2024, will utilize TSMC’s soon-to-be-deployed 5nm process, with the ability to handle 20,000 wafers a month. And with a final price tag on the facility expected to be $12 billion, this would make it one of the most expensive fabs ever built in the United States.

 

[GDRRiley]

1 hour ago, AluminiumTech said:

Not always.

 

AMD was a pipe cleaner on one of TSMC's 7nm nodes (not sure if it was N7 or something else) with Radeon VII and Vega 20 dies.

The problem is I think AMD is going to need it a lot sooner rather than later.

 

I see AMD needing 5nm supply in August or September 2021 for a November 2021 RDNA3 and Zen 4 launch.

AMD was for larger chips. I think apple was making mobile chips on the node at around the same time

yeah I agree its going to be late 21 or early 22 that they will need capacity unless they move APUs to 5nm first. I assume both CPU and GPUs will switch then leaving 7nm for consoles

 

[Sandro Linux]

Might be using the extra capacity for Apple Silicon powered macs 

[hishnash]

3 hours ago, Master Disaster said:

If TSMC is going to be churning out basically nothing but M1s then what are the chances of Apple just buying the fab outright? Surely its cheaper in the long run to buy the fab than it is to keep paying huge sums each quarter to reserve so much fab space?

Not quite, if apple buy the fab then what do they do with the 5nm node once 5nm+ or 4nm or 3nm is ready. Apple are not going to start to make chips for other vendors so they would basically end up discarding the 5nm node very soon after a new node comes down the line that means they need to recover the full investment into the 5nm node within just 1 to 2 years worth of products. At the moment TSMC can sell to apple for those first years (due to apple fronting most of TSMCs R&D money many years in advanced) but once apple move on to the next node TSMC can thens tart to sell 5nm to more people unlike apple. Also not sure TSMC could be sold (I expect it would be stopped by regulators).

 

 

3 hours ago, TetraSky said:

Honestly, Apple securing 80% of the production is simply strange considering their sales compared to Windows PC and Android phones makers

While total volume is lower from apple you need to remember basically every product they sell is on the latest node (and as apple expand Apple Silicon the the rest of the mac line in 2021 this will become all products).

The vast majority of products sold in the PC space are still on very old 14nm nodes (not even the ++++) (most laptops sold in volume are not the high end new releases but 3 to 4 year old chips at best, think about those laptops you might see at Walmart like shops). And the same is true for Android phones, while there are flagships with 7nm (and soon 5nm) cpus the volume of these flagships compared to the iPhone 12 is nothing. Most android phones sold today will be on 10nm or 12nm node size at best as they will be sold with 2 to 3 year old chips.

 

49 minutes ago, Amias said:

TSMC needs to build some more fabs ... asap.

Issue is that building new fabs takes time, they need to get the (very costly) machines made that make the chips. TSMC have a new fab in the works but it will not start to ship chips until 2024 and will start with just 5nm. By 2024 the lines of apple will not be interested in 5nm node size they will be cases 3nm or smaller.  But other vendors (who do not need the latest node) will still be interested in this fab for sure.. maybe they can sell capacity to intel  

 

[Belgarathian]

AMD could secure capacity with Samsung for next gen parts, it's not like they're bound completely to TSMC.

[GDRRiley]

7 minutes ago, Belgarathian said:

AMD could secure capacity with Samsung for next gen parts, it's not like they're bound completely to TSMC.

Samsungs node is 1 gen behind TSMC and has meh yields.

[porina]

2 hours ago, Amias said:

TSMC needs to build some more fabs ... asap.

ASAP in semiconductor timescales is years. If they didn't come to the conclusion they needed more capacity like 2 years ago, it isn't happening for a long time.

 

Also, I'm not sure when TSMC moved to EUV, but 5nm node certainly is on EUV. ASML makes one critical piece of EUV equipment and they're booked up for a long time. Once again, unless you got your orders in already, it'll be a long wait.

 

These problems are not things you can throw money at to make happen fast.

 

2 hours ago, jagdtigger said:

Unless someone signs a long term contract with them covering most of the capacity of the new fabs they wont.

They'll likely want to scale their capacity for anticipated future need, but like so many things, it is usually better to estimate low than estimate high. Low supply means higher prices, better than excess supply as you over spent on resources.

 

2 hours ago, StDragon said:

More info on AnandTech

I recall Ian Cutress who is the Senior Editor, CPUs & Motherboards at Anandtech saying somewhere that just because they signed the intent, doesn't mean it'll ever happen. It is suspected to only be a paper move to please the outgoing president from throwing a fit in their direction.

 

Edit: From his personal YouTube channel: hope my memory was correct on what was said, haven't rewatched it since my reply above.

 

[TheReal1980]

New iMac (different sizes)

New Macbook Pro 16".

Air and Pro 13

Mac Mini.

New Mac Pro.

iPads of different variations.

iPhones of different variations.

Apple Watch.

 

And maybe something more that we don't know.

 

They will need all the chips they can get. Maybe better to contact ASML and try to do everything themselves?