A report that Apple has apparently secured 80% of TSMCs 5nm production throughout 2021 emerges

[Doobeedoo]

Ugh, Apple of all the companies to snatch production lines... then there are consoles as well, new phones... and just THEN PC parts like CPU/GPU as well as how RAM and memory are requirements for them too. So lame. Just feels like PC parts are last in line and usually the ones that suffer price increase on some things in the end.

[cj09beira]

5 hours ago, Master Disaster said:

That's part of the problem though, AMD need 5nm fab space right now for RDNA2 and they have Zen 4 planned for 2021 that also needs 5nm. By the end of 2021 AMD is going to need more 5nm than 7nm and it seems like TSMC has sold most of what they have for the entire year to Apple.

 

This might even have a knock on effect for Sony & Microsoft.

rdna 2 is on 7nm, amd will likely only launch 5nm parts in quantities in 2022, next year will likely be quite slow compared to the previous ones.

4 hours ago, RejZoR said:

I don't see anything wrong with this. Apple buys the manufacturing capacity. Instead of blaming Apple, go and blame TSMC for not expanding their capacities for higher demands.

they are already expanding but building plants to make ~10nm features in silicon takes time and money

4 hours ago, AluminiumTech said:

Not always.

 

AMD was a pipe cleaner on one of TSMC's 7nm nodes (not sure if it was N7 or something else) with Radeon VII and Vega 20 dies.

The problem is I think AMD is going to need it a lot sooner rather than later.

 

I see AMD needing 5nm supply in August or September 2021 for a November 2021 RDNA3 and Zen 4 launch.

i dont think we will get ryzen 6000 series in 2021, i am guessing CES 2022, still they need volume by September no doubt 

[duckypath]

39 minutes ago, Doobeedoo said:

Ugh, Apple of all the companies to snatch production lines... then there are consoles as well, new phones... and just THEN PC parts like CPU/GPU as well as how RAM and memory are requirements for them too. So lame. Just feels like PC parts are last in line and usually the ones that suffer price increase on some things in the end.

You really can't be that upset though, because there was opportunity for them to grab the resources they needed as well. If you say they don't have the demand, thus the cash to reserve so much, well then you answered your own question. MORE DEMAND = MORE RESOURCES NEEDED.

 

Apple has really pushed tech in an interesting direction, and have gotten a ton of support and demand for their product. It makes ZERO sense for apple to not get ahead of everything and procure resources they need. If you argue against that you're a hypocrite, because you're blaming AMD and NVIDIA right now for their low supply. (not you specifically i don't think, but in general with your similar argument against apple).

[Arika]

I've been saying this for a while, TSMC is going to run out of capacity and that Apple would be the one to buy up most of it.

 

While not a true monopoly,  this is what happens when you don't have proper competition.

[Bombastinator]

7 hours ago, Master Disaster said:

In what could be more bad news for both businesses and customers, a report has come out of Taiwan claims that Apple has snatched up 80% of TSMC's 5nm wafer output for 2021 leaving the likes of Qualcomm, Broadcom & AMD to fight over the remaining 20%.

Its unclear exactly which of TSMC's various 5nm nodes the new Apple silicon will be using but they are expected to be launching at least 2 new products in 2021 running on M1 and they have told shareholders they intend to be full transitioned to ARM by 2022 so it makes sense they are going to want lots of M1 wafers.

English Source - https://wccftech.com/apple-secured-80-tsmc-5nm-production-capacity-2021/

Taiwanese Source - https://www.cnbeta.com/articles/tech/1068385.htm

 

Apple is going hard on the M1s, my worry is this will mean shortages for AMD which will hurt the PC market even more.

 

80% seems disproportionately large though.

We’re need that US factory TSMC was talking about pretty bad right now.

[jakecongerlikesmemes]

7 hours ago, Master Disaster said:

The only people that benefits is the scalpers.

never again

 

[Doobeedoo]

35 minutes ago, duckypath said:

You really can't be that upset though, because there was opportunity for them to grab the resources they needed as well. If you say they don't have the demand, thus the cash to reserve so much, well then you answered your own question. MORE DEMAND = MORE RESOURCES NEEDED.

 

Apple has really pushed tech in an interesting direction, and have gotten a ton of support and demand for their product. It makes ZERO sense for apple to not get ahead of everything and procure resources they need. If you argue against that you're a hypocrite, because you're blaming AMD and NVIDIA right now for their low supply. (not you specifically i don't think, but in general with your similar argument against apple).

I'm not upset, it's just we've seen this before, be it Apple or consoles and even phones always leaving the leftovers for PC components it seems. In the end you don't really see any of those having major issues or phones not being available or priced higher. Usually it's always PC components, especially memory. Then you say more demand = more resources needed, yeah of course, obviously. But I find it hard to believe that demand for Apple products is more than consoles, phones and PC parts, even PC parts alone. They have tons of money and I guess weight for fabs in such way, so they can secure more than enough for their SoCs though. Because components can be gathered and outsources easily, compared to fabs.

 

Maybe now Apple having that M1 chip being different than mobile one all, so they want to ramp more resources, but still it's the first gen and also not complete transition yet. Also let's be real, most things they sell as far as demand are their phones. Always has been. Not sure why you're all of a sudden attacking me about Apple or saying I blame other companies for whatever reason, all I'm stating is how it appears and not just now, but years before there were issues too. Every time there was some RAM or SSD issues and spike in prices or lack of supply, it was because of Apple, consoles, phones, all them having priority over PC consumer space. Just saying.

[TargetDron3]

5 hours ago, AluminiumTech said:

Traditionally yes because AMD traditionally only used Samsung or Global Foundry based nodes for their products but they moved almost all of them to TSMC. The only exception being Zen IO dies and the newly announced re-cycled Zen+ APUs for Chromebooks.

 

Now that AMD has moved almost everything to TSMC this is going to be a big problem for RDNA3 and Zen 4.

Looks like a management problem in not securing enough production.  

BUUUT AMD and others that rely on 3rd party chip makers, have other options.  While it might not be ready now, Samsung is pouring over $100 BILLION into it's fab business and will be ready for 3nm in 2022.  They are going to start mass 5nm in the second half of 2021.  

[YellowJersey]

I wouldn't necessarily say that this is all doom and gloom for AMD. While I wouldn't call this a benefit, a mitigating factor to less AMD production is that AMD is likely to sell all/most of what it does produce, and at a premium to boot. AMD would probably rather be in a situation where it produces less but sells out than a situation where it produces more but has stock laying around that it can't move. Though, apple scooping up 80% of production is definitely far from idea for AMD and others. 

[_ted_fu]

8 hours ago, wall03 said:

Guess I'll upgrade to Ryzen 7000 when I upgrade my computer

Let's hope there won't be a shortage then.

[_ted_fu]

8 hours ago, TetraSky said:

Could that just be because AMD and the others don't have anything on 5nm yet, thus Apple has "80% of the production... of 5nm" and not "80% of the total possible production across all process nodes" ?

The way I read this, it shouldn't affect AMD and Co. at all.

Am I wrong to think that?

I don't think that's a big problem for AMD, both Zen 3 and RDNA 2 are on 7nm, and we won't see Zen 4 (or whatever it is called) until 2022.

14 months between Zen and Zen+

15 months between Zen+ and Zen 2

16 months between Zen 2 and Zen 3

[StDragon]

2 hours ago, Arika S said:

I've been saying this for a while, TSMC is going to run out of capacity and that Apple would be the one to buy up most of it.

 

While not a true monopoly,  this is what happens when you don't have proper competition.

Apple: "Damn shame your console and PC parts are too expensive and in short supply. Oh hey, buy a Mac!!!" j/k

 

The semiconductor industry is probably making a killing about now.

 

[GDRRiley]

8 hours ago, Master Disaster said:

This might even have a knock on effect for Sony & Microsoft.

it won't they are on 7nm. 7nm freeing up will be good for them.

[Bombastinator]

1 hour ago, StDragon said:

Apple: "Damn shame your console and PC parts are too expensive and in short supply. Oh hey, buy a Mac!!!" j/k

 

The semiconductor industry is probably making a killing about now.

 

Or at least TSMC is.  They’re the one selling the thing everyone wants.  The impression I get is if you don’t have the best node you’re nothing in the semi-conductor business.   There are like 2 dozen USA based fabs, but they’re all over 14 so no one wants anything to do with they and they have to make cheap commodity support chips.

[leadeater]

7 hours ago, Bombastinator said:

Or at least TSMC is.  They’re the one selling the thing everyone wants.  The impression I get is if you don’t have the best node you’re nothing in the semi-conductor business.   There are like 2 dozen USA based fabs, but they’re all over 14 so no one wants anything to do with they and they have to make cheap commodity support chips.

The fabs that have the large nodes are ones that work with different industries, like power MOSFETs which need to be on these larger nodes to handle very high power and heat loads that just are not possible on smaller nodes. It's more a know your market's needs situation than anything, and also know what you can and cannot compete with too.

 

RAM also doesn't greatly need small nodes as well, NAND and flash too, so these fabs can be churning out anything from RAM and flash chips for embedded industrial devices to the CMOS chips on your motherboard. There's a lot of things these more niche fabs do that I could not think of or possibly even know is a thing.

 

I don't think any of them are struggling for business.

[NotTheFirstDaniel]

Isn’t Apple a huge contractor for TSMC? Didn’t they invest a large sum of money to expand the plants in Taiwan?

 

Apple pretty much funds TSMC singlehandedly, of course they would get first dibs on a new processing node. They went 7nm in 2018 and now 5nm in 2020 — a year before the competition. I think Apple and TSMC are gearing up for 3nm in 2022.

 

Not to mention that every new Apple product next year will use this node. Even a phone like the iPhone SE probably sells more units in a month than Ryzen would in a year if it had no production issues. Maybe if most chipmakers didn’t rely on one sole company to produce everything, we wouldn’t have these issues.

[Mark Kaine]

On 12/21/2020 at 5:21 PM, Master Disaster said:

80% seems disproportionately large though.

free market, supply and demand. 

 

(this is really awful for their 'competitors' ) 

 

I think at some point "chipmakers" like AMD etc may need to start actually producing chips themselves... not a apple fan but that was a good move! 

[Mark Kaine]

53 minutes ago, NotTheFirstDaniel said:

Maybe if most chipmakers didn’t rely on one sole company to produce everything, we wouldn’t have these issues

 

I just read about this recently... very weird situation ... actual fabs that produce 'modern' chips keep getting less... currently only 2 or 3 companies left from ~25 in 2002... it seems its not actually lucrative, perhaps? 

 

13 hours ago, leadeater said:

I don't think any of them are struggling for business.

I dunno, what's the reason for the decline then? 

 

 

Quote

Likewise, the fabs that make the most advanced chips are becoming prohibitively pricey. The cost of a fab is rising at around 13% a year, and is expected to reach $16 billion or more by 2022. Not coincidentally, the number of companies with plans to make the next generation of chips has now shrunk to only three, down from eight in 2010 and 25 in 2002.

 

 

from here 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/24/905789/were-not-prepared-for-the-end-of-moores-law/amp/

 

[inteli7.Ti]

3 hours ago, NotTheFirstDaniel said:

Maybe if most chipmakers didn’t rely on one sole company to produce everything, we wouldn’t have these issues.

The problem is that making 5nm and below nodes requires EUV lithography, along with a host of other highly specialized technology/machines which requires a special machine from ASML (costing over $130 a million a piece).This super high price tag and along with other things is why only two companies in the world can make these fabs: TSMC and Samsung (and as said in a previous comment, Samsung's 5nm fabs aren't as good as TSMC). GlobalFoundaries stopped at 7nm because making 5nm and below is too expensive. 

[Bombastinator]

3 hours ago, Mark Kaine said:

free market, supply and demand. 

 

(this is really awful for their 'competitors' ) 

 

I think at some point "chipmakers" like AMD etc may need to start actually producing chips themselves... not a apple fan but that was a good move! 

They used to do it then stopped the maverick company is intel for not doing so.  There was some sort of quote by someone at intel that went “real men have fabs” or some such.

[leadeater]

4 hours ago, Mark Kaine said:

I dunno, what's the reason for the decline then? 

What you are reading is talking about TSMC, Samsung, GloFo and Intel. The ones we were talking about are the Texas Instruments, BAE, Flir etc. None of these use leading edge expensive processes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabrication_plants

 

As talked about in the post, not everything needs or can use leading edge very small silicon nodes. A decline in companies competing in that market doesn't mean the ones not doing so are struggling for business. The world needs transistors of all kinds, not just super tiny 5nm ones.

[Donut417]

On 12/21/2020 at 11:28 AM, Master Disaster said:

Surely its cheaper in the long run to buy the fab than it is to keep paying huge sums each quarter to reserve so much fab space?

FAB's are expensive to operate. Ask AMD about that. They had SHIT loads of Fabs back in the day and that part of the reason they went in to the shitter. You know that company Global Foundries? Thats pretty much AMD's Fabs, they had to sell them off. Building FAB's takes years. For what Apple is doing, its probably better to use TSMC or Samsung FABs. 

[Mark Kaine]

4 hours ago, leadeater said:

What you are reading is talking about TSMC, Samsung, GloFo and Intel. The ones we were talking about are the Texas Instruments, BAE, Flir etc. None of these use leading edge expensive processes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabrication_plants

Ah okay, I get it now, I was just wondering... 

 

I know not everyone one makes or needs these high end / latest tech chips, I'm still wondering about the decline, looks this is directly related to the shortages we're seeing, maybe they'll just have to make more fabs again... but prices will keep rising apparently.

 

 

[tech.guru]

On 12/21/2020 at 11:21 AM, Master Disaster said:

In what could be more bad news for both businesses and customers, a report has come out of Taiwan claims that Apple has snatched up 80% of TSMC's 5nm wafer output for 2021 leaving the likes of Qualcomm, Broadcom & AMD to fight over the remaining 20%.

Its unclear exactly which of TSMC's various 5nm nodes the new Apple silicon will be using but they are expected to be launching at least 2 new products in 2021 running on M1 and they have told shareholders they intend to be full transitioned to ARM by 2022 so it makes sense they are going to want lots of M1 wafers.

English Source - https://wccftech.com/apple-secured-80-tsmc-5nm-production-capacity-2021/

Taiwanese Source - https://www.cnbeta.com/articles/tech/1068385.htm

 

Apple is going hard on the M1s, my worry is this will mean shortages for AMD which will hurt the PC market even more.

 

80% seems disproportionately large though.

this is wrong on so many levels,

there is so many partners

 

1) that have a closer long standing relationship than apple m1

2) generate more business for TSMC than apple m1

3) have more significant orders than apple M1 will ever have;

 

sales of all apple machines (laptops, desktops and workstations)

were 18.21 m in 2018

see, https://www.statista.com/statistics/276308/global-apple-mac-sales-since-fiscal-year-2002/#:~:text=Apple%3A Mac sales worldwide 2002-2018&text=Sales of the Mac computers,in the last few years.

 

the smart phone business is much much bigger even with it slowing

qualcomm alone expects

              company expecting to see 175 million and 225 million 5G phone shipments this year.

 

see, https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/29/21241911/qualcomm-earnings-q2-phone-shipments-drop-30-percent-covid-19

 

this doesnt pass the logic test.  why would believe that garbage articles,

apple m1 is a drop in a bucket in terms of TSMC business

 

 

[Donut417]

1 minute ago, tech.guru said:

TSMC and have more significant orders than apple M1 will ever have;

M1 is only one of the CPU's for Apple they produce. Remember there are what 3 or 4 iPads, 3 or 4 iPhones, the Apple Watch. So there are multiple products. The iPhone has a significant market share compared to Apple's computers. Apple is also worth over 2 Trillion dollars. As much as people love to hate on Apple, being worth more than 2 Trillion makes you look like a cash cow. TSMC is making bank with Apple.