COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING

[WkdPaul]

13 minutes ago, DanTheMuffinMan said:

Anyone know when Ontario non-essential businesses are supposed to actually re-open? Is it really April 14th? So much conflicting info out there.

Keep an eye on the province's website, they have all the information needed and it's accurate ;

https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus

 

From the declaration of emergency section ;

Quote

These orders will remain in place until April 13, 2020, when the province will reassess for an extension or end the closures.

 

 

EDIT ; they also have a site for specific info on COVID-19 and related issues (like a way to report price gouging) ;

https://covid-19.ontario.ca/

Edited April 10, 2020 by wkdpaul

[RonnieOP]

12 minutes ago, DanTheMuffinMan said:

Anyone know when Ontario non-essential businesses are supposed to actually re-open? Is it really April 14th? So much conflicting info out there.

I would count on them extending it. They just extended my area "indefinitely". People are pissed and they actually have the road to the mayors house blocked off with cops guarding it.

 

Got an email this morning from the company that owns the building my restaurant is located. After about 30 of us threatened to never pay them again and when we would take every fixture, piece of equipment, etc with us when we leave they finally decided to start working with us. Sad part was nobody was asking for free rent. we just wanted an extension or deferred payment. and for two weeks they just said no. I guess when the 5th came and literally nobody sent a check they reconsidered.

[Taf the Ghost]

5 hours ago, Theminecraftaddict555 said:

I've been hearing about this 99% of corona deaths in Italy not actually being linked to corona itself but to some other illnesses that the victims already had. Can anybody confirm this at all? 

 

Edit: Found the study but its not in english whatsoever (now allowed to translate it in english for some reason) https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf

Most likely scenario has been the spots hit really badly are a combination of the elder and another virus running around. It'll take years, but there seems a clear "profile" where COVID-19 is Ebola-like fatal (~70%) but where the vast, vast majority of the population isn't at much risk. What the profile really is will take a number of years to figure out. Given the lethality scaling with age beyond 40, there's likely an accumulation of some sort, maybe gene damage in certain lung cells, that allow the virus to run rampant and the body basically goes into chain organ shock trying to deal with the cascading issue.

 

The main reason it'll take so long to sort out is due to the risk profile being not an easy counted/tracked comorbidity, otherwise it'd be picked out already. If it was as easy as Smoker + COVID = dead, that'd be fairly easy. If it's isomorphic genetic expression within population groups, expect it to take a long time to tease out. Especially if it's isolated to certain population groups in certain areas. I wonder if it's accumulation of cell surface receptors that are the infection vector, allowing the virus to proliferate extremely rapidly in a smaller cohort.  Something like that would be subtle enough to take years to sort out.

[SpikeSpiegel]

 

[Andreas Lilja]

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/coronavirus-legault-says-schools-might-reopen-earlier-than-may-4/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1586545884

 

And the award for dumbass of the year goes to... 

[Bombastinator]

6 hours ago, Taf the Ghost said:

Most likely scenario has been the spots hit really badly are a combination of the elder and another virus running around. It'll take years, but there seems a clear "profile" where COVID-19 is Ebola-like fatal (~70%) but where the vast, vast majority of the population isn't at much risk. What the profile really is will take a number of years to figure out. Given the lethality scaling with age beyond 40, there's likely an accumulation of some sort, maybe gene damage in certain lung cells, that allow the virus to run rampant and the body basically goes into chain organ shock trying to deal with the cascading issue.

 

The main reason it'll take so long to sort out is due to the risk profile being not an easy counted/tracked comorbidity, otherwise it'd be picked out already. If it was as easy as Smoker + COVID = dead, that'd be fairly easy. If it's isomorphic genetic expression within population groups, expect it to take a long time to tease out. Especially if it's isolated to certain population groups in certain areas. I wonder if it's accumulation of cell surface receptors that are the infection vector, allowing the virus to proliferate extremely rapidly in a smaller cohort.  Something like that would be subtle enough to take years to sort out.

Re: confirmation:  doubtful.  Smells like conspiracy theory BS.  They wouldn’t suddenly need to make makeshift morgues and have doctors and nurses terrified and dying.

Where did you hear it?  I smell garbage.

 

re: risk.

 

i tried to work out my risk looking at available graphs.  The way I figure it with my age and health level, if I get it there’s a ~50% chance I’ll need to go to the hospital.  If I have to go to the hospital there’s a ~50% chance I’ll have to be put into an induced coma and intubated.  If I have to be intubates there’s a between 20-50% chance I will die.  Multiply those fractions together and I get the average death rate for my age group.

[RonnieOP]

2 hours ago, Andreas Lilja said:

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/coronavirus-legault-says-schools-might-reopen-earlier-than-may-4/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1586545884

 

And the award for dumbass of the year goes to... 

A lot of areas are talking about reopening next month.

 

Virus or no virus thats going to happen sooner rather than later. We are getting to a point where the people who are at high risk are going to have to social distance while the rest of us go back to life as we knew it (well as close to that as we can).

 

I mean I personally have a better chance of dying in a car wreck, cancer, heart attack, than i do the virus.

 

Thursday my area extended the stay at home order to "indefinitely" but as of this afternoon they have started to back track that talk after such a huge backlash from residents. 

 

 

[PhantomJaguarr]

Quote

The Northwest Territories encompasses some of the northernmost regions of Canada and extends high into the Arctic Circle. It is about twice the size of Texas but home to only 44,000 residents, who live in small communities spread across its vast area. The capital city of Yellowknife is 1,500 kilometers from the next-closest major city. It’s cold, ruggedly beautiful, and very isolated.

 

The region’s remoteness, its limited health resources, and the history of infectious disease among the predominantly indigenous population sparked an austere response to the spread of the coronavirus. Upon the discovery of its first case, the territory closed its borders to outside travel and implemented strict self-isolation measures.

 

 

[PhantomJaguarr]

Quote

Mottet was on a ventilator in the ICU, where doctors tried two treatments that didn’t work. That’s when her doctor and family approached Dr. Otto Yang, a professor of medicine at UCLA’s David Geffen School of Medicine, who is leading a clinical trial of a drug called “leronlimab.”

Quote

Researchers are administering the drug to COVID-19 patients across the country as a new potential treatment, and Yang offered Mottet a spot in his trial.

Yang said “leronlimab” is an artifical antibody that works against the second phase of the COVID-19. That’s when the body’s immune system overreacts in response to the virus. It’s administered through an injection under the skin.

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/04/10/coronavirus-survivor-leronlimab/
 

 

[it_dont_work]

On 4/10/2020 at 10:41 AM, RonnieOP said:

Of course if you earn to much you dont get one to begin with.

The stimulus in Aus is pretty limited most people who still have a job and make an ok amount (like me funnily enough) dont get any form of stimulus money taxed or otherwise. 

 

There is a superannuation loophole (retirement savings), which has seen me now pay a huge portion less tax which is nice. 

[Taf the Ghost]

18 minutes ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/04/10/coronavirus-survivor-leronlimab/
 

 

Medication is known as "PRO 140" and its one of those that's been banging around the development field for a while. I thought the name was vaguely familiar, and it's one of those medications that's been stuck in the Phase 2 Hell for a while. Though it looks like it's pretty close to approval as a treatment for a number of cancers this year, along with its HIV usage as well.

 

Should be noted this would be for those in the Hospital already. You'd use it to prevent the Cascade Effect you see in patients where the virus has mostly run its course already. It's not a treatment for the virus, but a treatment for the effect of the virus in severe cases. 

 

Glad to see more of these popping up. There is a good number of "safe" treatments in the pipeline or never fully approved that can always be dusted off if they seem viable for something new. Looks like there should be a fully mapped out treatment approach by the of April. Like the Flu or Pneumonia, there's still going to be deaths, but it's an approach that'll keep people alive.

[Guest]

Quote

 

A "case study" of an epidemy: Congo and Ebola

 

Ebola outbreak in Congo started in 2018 and since then "only" 2,273 people died of it...

Next monday Congo had the hope to finally declare the end of the epidemy after 55 days without any new cases, any new deaths.

But... On day 52 (yesterday) a young 26 yo man died from Ebola at Beni in Congo.

A new case, a new death, a new cluster, a new outbreak... Because if there's a new death it means that there are other cases out there. Which need to be found, contained and for some of them treated and for others burried.

The clock starts again at 0 and all the process needs to start again from the beginning.

 

That's the sad truth of an epidemy.

 

Some would say that it's Ebola we're talking about. Yes, that's true.

Others would say that Congo is facing 3 others epidemies, me among them: Measles, Cholera and now Covid-19...

 

On the other hand I would also answer that the rule of the end of any epidemy and any pandemy is the same: 55 consecutive days without any new cases and any new deaths.

 

In China it started mid-november, they went into complete lock-down, they had thousands of deaths (and you can't trust their official numbers), and they still have new cases, and I'm talking about LOCAL cases, not imported ones.

 

They started deconfinement this week and you already can see a surge of new cases. China is not yet out of the woods, and if they go on like that the flare will ignite a new fire again.

And that is not the "2nd wave". That's the burning coals being re-ignited with new fuel.

 

I read here and there people saying:

• "let's open the country again",
• "people need to go back to normality",
• "let's get the people start work again",
• "people want/need to work again",
• "I'm not in the statistical danger zone! I'm not in danger of dying from this!" - Hey! Superman! Did you sign a blood pact with the virus to not take your life? To not ruin your lungs, your heart, your kidneys, your nervous system, your liver?
• "we need to take care of the economy"!

I understand that people need to hold on some reassuring notions which were defining their lives. It's human!

 

All I can answer to all this is:

• "if you're dead there is nothing you can do to help your family/the economy!"
• "if you heavily crippled by the sequels of this sickness, there won't be anything you will be able to do!"
• "you can't rebuild the economy alone or with only a fraction of the people you had before!"
• "you can rebuild an economy with time, you can't rebuild a dead person and it takes 20 years min. the get a new person to be "useful for Society"! That's called a new generation!"
• "there is no "come back to like as it used to be before" for a loooog time! Accept it and go on! Don't fight it uselessly!"
• "WE are on the right track! Let's not ruin everything jus because some people are impatient or are fed up to stay at home!"

 

An epidemy, even more so a pandemy, are life changing events. There is no coming back to "as it was before"! What defines you as a person is how you react to it (life changing event) and how you extend your hand to others in this time. And yes, there are still many ways to do it, even in confinement.

 

Just my 2 cents and some thoughts.

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by Guest
Added quote box for clarity

[Guest]

A Study made in China in 2 ward hospitals in Wuhan (among them the new "hospital" built in 10 days) studying how far the droplets are sent from the infected into their environment.

The study has been published in the CDC magazine "Emerging Infectious Diseases".

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0885_article

 

The study has been made by taking samples on the different surfaces in the hospitals to see how far the droplets are "flying".

The results show that the droplets are sent up to 4 m from the bed and can be found everywhere, ceiling, keaboards, screens, walls, windows, doors, etc.

 

So the 2-3 m distancing seems to not be enough, the masks are strongly recommended even if only to reduce the spread of droplets.

 

Quote

Conclusions

This study led to 3 conclusions. First, SARS-CoV-2 was widely distributed in the air and on object surfaces in both the ICU and GW, implying a potentially high infection risk for medical staff and other close contacts. Second, the environmental contamination was greater in the ICU than in the GW; thus, stricter protective measures should be taken by medical staff working in the ICU. Third, the SARS-CoV-2 aerosol distribution characteristics in the GW indicate that the transmission distance of SARS-CoV-2 might be 4 m.

 

As of March 30, no staff members at Huoshenshan Hospital had been infected with SARS-CoV-2, indicating that appropriate precautions could effectively prevent infection. In addition, our findings suggest that home isolation of persons with suspected COVID-19 might not be a good control strategy. Family members usually do not have personal protective equipment and lack professional training, which easily leads to familial cluster infections (6). During the outbreak, the government of China strove to the fullest extent possible to isolate all patients with suspected COVID-19 by actions such as constructing mobile cabin hospitals in Wuhan (7), which ensured that all patients with suspected disease were cared for by professional medical staff and that virus transmission was effectively cut off. As of the end of March, the SARS-COV-2 epidemic in China had been well controlled.

 

Our study has 2 limitations. First, the results of the nucleic acid test do not indicate the amount of viable virus. Second, for the unknown minimal infectious dose, the aerosol transmission distance cannot be strictly determined.

 

Overall, we found that the air and object surfaces in COVID-19 wards were widely contaminated by SARS-CoV-2. These findings can be used to improve safety practices.

 

Edited April 11, 2020 by Guest
miswrote the distancing length, so corrected it from 4 to 2-3m

[captain_to_fire]

Cases in the US now slowly starting to look like Verizon's current 4G LTE coverage map, and it's not good.

 

[Bombastinator]

1 minute ago, captain_to_fire said:

Cases in the US now slowly starting to look like Verizon's current 4G LTE coverage map, and it's not good.

 

That makes a certain amount of sense.  Both cell phone coverage and the virus expand by population density.

[captain_to_fire]

1 minute ago, VegetableStu said:

... was there this observation earlier on in the thread? o_o

Yup it was mine. But I compared it to a scantier 2009 coverage map and the screenshot I posted was zoomed out for Covid-19 cases, this time it's zoomed in

 

[OriAr]

At some point we will have to go back to relatively normal while those who are in increased risk groups (Old people and those with severe background conditions) will have to continue to minimize interaction with the outside world. I expect social distancing and masks to continue to be prominent for a while but eventually even those will end (Maybe around September?).

 

People are growing restless, and at some point the lockdown will eventually cause more damage to society than the virus itself. (Especially when it seems that the virus is not as lethal as it was first thought). The lasting damage of a worldwide economic depression might very well take more than 20 years to fix if we go with the lockdown too long. (It took until the late 40s to recover from the 1929 great depression).

[Bombastinator]

28 minutes ago, OriAr said:

At some point we will have to go back to relatively normal while those who are in increased risk groups (Old people and those with severe background conditions) will have to continue to minimize interaction with the outside world. I expect social distancing and masks to continue to be prominent for a while but eventually even those will end (Maybe around September?).

 

People are growing restless, and at some point the lockdown will eventually cause more damage to society than the virus itself. (Especially when it seems that the virus is not as lethal as it was first thought). The lasting damage of a worldwide economic depression might very well take more than 20 years to fix if we go with the lockdown too long. (It took until the late 40s to recover from the 1929 great depression).

It’s not so much that it is less lethal, but we are learning more specifically how to deal with it.  I suspect as knowledge progresses it will get relatively less and less effectively lethal.  Scarlett fever was an incredibly lethal disease.  We learned work-around a though.  I agree that isolation will be needed longer for the immunity compromised.  The wide area restrictions are there mostly to give time to get systems in place.  They are falling onto place one by one.  The problem is the various mitigation’s all take various amounts of time to set up.  I’m hearing may currently as the point when a partial lift may occur. 

[GOTSpectrum]

28 minutes ago, OriAr said:

At some point we will have to go back to relatively normal while those who are in increased risk groups (Old people and those with severe background conditions) will have to continue to minimize interaction with the outside world. I expect social distancing and masks to continue to be prominent for a while but eventually even those will end (Maybe around September?).

 

People are growing restless, and at some point the lockdown will eventually cause more damage to society than the virus itself. (Especially when it seems that the virus is not as lethal as it was first thought). The lasting damage of a worldwide economic depression might very well take more than 20 years to fix if we go with the lockdown too long. (It took until the late 40s to recover from the 1929 great depression).

Very true, the economic hit will be horrible for the world as a whole, but tbh the only reason the great depression ended when it did was the fact that govs around the world spent stupid amounts of money and resources on war production. 

 

I would like to think that we have better ways of dealing with an economic crisis but the 2008 banking crisis proved that we in fact, don't have anything to help deal with it in the short term.

 

I think this will leave a lasting impact on the world, I feel mask wearing may become more common in places outside of asia than it has been for instance, and I feel the way we deal with health is going to be changed. For many public health systems this is something that they have never dealt with before. I can see organisations like the NHS stockpiling more after this is over. And also potentially could see funding towards healthcare systems see a marked increase in the coming years.

 

As far as I go, I'm not too concerned despite my health issues as I am in full isolation, no visitors, no leaving the house. I am concerned that if I do get it, I will end up in hospital, but only time will tell. 

 

Spoiler

@wkdpaul I hope that this isnt too political, if it is feel free to remove any part that you deem is inappropriate 

 

[WkdPaul]

34 minutes ago, OriAr said:

Especially when it seems that the virus is not as lethal as it was first thought

Seems everyone is focusing on that, but if you listen to healthcare professional, it's not the issue, the issue is with cases that requires respirators, if too much of the population gets infected, the small number of people that requires ICU beds and respirators will be larger than the than the current capacity. When that happens, that's when large number of infected start dying.

 

TLDR ;

The issue isn't that it's barely lethal, the issue is that we don't have enough respirators and ICU beds.

[OriAr]

3 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

It’s not so much that it is less lethal, but we are learning more specifically how to deal with it.  I suspect as knowledge progresses it will get relatively less and less effectively lethal.  Scarlett fever was an incredibly lethal disease.  We learned work-around a though.  I agree that isolation will be needed longer for the immunity compromised.  The wide area restrictions are there mostly to give time to get systems in place.  They are falling onto place one by one.  The problem is the various mitigation’s all take various amounts of time to set up.  I’m hearing may currently as the point when a partial lift may occur. 

It's definitely interlinked, the more time passes the more we know about it, the more we can finetune our response to it, the more we can scale up things to the needed amount, and then we can start lift the restrictions slowly and eventually comeback to normal by the fall.

There are probably gonna be riots at some places if things don't start to get lifted by late next month, people in Israel are growing restless as it is and the very low death rate suggests it might be time to start the exit strategy.

[RonnieOP]

2 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

 

I read here and there people saying:

• "let's open the country again",
• "people need to go back to normality",
• "let's get the people start work again",
• "people want/need to work again",
• "I'm not in the statistical danger zone! I'm not in danger of dying from this!" - Hey! Superman! Did you sign a blood pact with the virus to not take your life? To not ruin your lungs, your heart, your kidneys, your nervous system, your liver?
• "we need to take care of the economy"!

I understand that people need to hold on some reassuring notions which were defining their lives. It's human!

 

All I can answer to all this is:

• "if you're dead there is nothing you can do to help your family/the economy!"
• "if you heavily crippled by the sequels of this sickness, there won't be anything you will be able to do!"
• "you can't rebuild the economy alone or with only a fraction of the people you had before!"
• "you can rebuild an economy with time, you can't rebuild a dead person and it takes 20 years min. the get a new person to be "useful for Society"! That's called a new generation!"
• "there is no "come back to like as it used to be before" for a loooog time! Accept it and go on! Don't fight it uselessly!"
• "WE are on the right track! Let's not ruin everything jus because some people are impatient or are fed up to stay at home!"

 

An epidemy, even more so a pandemy, are life changing events. There is no coming back to "as it was before"! What defines you as a person is how you react to it (life changing event) and how you extend your hand to others in this time. And yes, there are still many ways to do it, even in confinement.

 

Just my 2 cents and some thoughts.

 

 

 

Everyone is sympathetic to everyone who has died and who will die due to the virus.

 

But a world wide economical crash will last longer and kill more then the virus.

 

In the states we have 390 million people. Without a vaccine there will never be a long period of time where nobody gets the virus or nobody dies from it.

 

Its going to sound cold. But yes area are going to have to open up sooner rather then later. There is no way around that.

 

For the vast majority of people theres a greater chance of dying in a car wreck than the virus. And we drive to work anyway.

 

The people who are of high risk will have to continue to social distance while this is going on and there will meed to be programs in place for them. But life has to go on. Theres no way around that.

 

Our numbers are much lower then estimated when it comes to deaths. We might of already flattened the curve enough to not over run the hospitals. And we should keep this up for a bit longer.

 

But after roughly another two weeks to a month id be willing to bet your going to see alot of areas open back up.

 

You cant keep telling people that have a small small chance of dying that they are going to lose their jobs, home, businesses, etc because they need to stay home.

 

Even if they tried in al ot of areas it will not work. It would turn in to mad max out there.

 

Shit situation. And it sounds cold. But basically the needs of the many outweigh the need of the few.

 

My grandparents, father in law, eifes grandparents, etc would all rather die then watch their great grandkids go through a great depression.

[OriAr]

2 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

Seems everyone is focusing on that, but if you listen to healthcare professional, it's not the issue, the issue is with cases that requires respirators, if too much of the population gets infected, the small number of people that requires ICU beds and respirators will be larger than the than the current capacity. When that happens, that's when large number of infected start dying.

 

TLDR ;

The issue isn't that it's barely lethal, the issue is that we don't have enough respirators and ICU beds.

It is definitely a very big concern which is why we entered the lockdown at the first place and why the return to normal will be staggered, and the old and those who are in risk groups (And therefore more likely to occupy a hospital bed) will be asked to minimize their interactions for a while even after the rest come back to normal. Important to note that at least here ventilators are nowhere near capacity. (There are around 125 people ventilated here, there are around 1000 ventilators in Israel and apparently up to 5,000 on the way). The number of ventilated people has also barely changed the last week.

[williamcll]

My cooking skills this two months have drastically improved.

[WkdPaul]

15 minutes ago, OriAr said:

* snip *

I understand that it looks like it's all going great, but remember that the spread is close to an exponential growth, that means, if it's not contained properly when the quarantine is lifted, the new infections could very quickly overrun the healthcare system.

 

I'm not saying this is what's going to happen, it's totally possible that everything is going to be fine when the quarantine is lifted, people are going to change (at least, I hope).

 

What I'm trying to say is, we should listen to specialist, the economy has already taken a huge hit, a few weeks more won't make a big difference (few weeks as in 3-4 weeks ... more than that could have larger impact). And if it looks like it wasn't as bad as we've been told, then it means the measures taken to protect the population worked (and that's what it's currently looking like, fatality rates are lower than expected BECAUSE of the quarantine, not because COVID-19 isn't dangerous).

 

 

Corridor made a video trying to show how the spread of the infection could get out of hand quickly ;

 

Edited April 11, 2020 by wkdpaul