There’s No ‘Supply-Chain Shortage,’ Or Inflation. There’s Just Central Planning

[Rym]

Summary

 The topic indicates that there is no such thing as a chip shortage in reality, and the shortage we're experiencing is artificial in nature. The purpose is simple, more money.

 

Quotes

Quote

 Please keep this in mind as you read media coverage of the so-called “supply-chain disruptions” resulting in “shortages” that are said to be causing “inflation.” If you want a bigger laugh, read about what President Biden wants to do in order to get “supply” back on the market with an eye on replenishing U.S. retail shelves that are increasingly bare. He’s decreed 24-hour port operations! Yes, thanks to the 46th president we now know what held the Soviets back, and ultimately destroyed the Soviet Union: their ports weren’t open long enough; thus the shortages of everything…

 

My thoughts

 I believe it's extremely interesting how right after covid there was suddenly a perfectly convenient global chip shortage, which conveniently increased the prices of most items that require chips. It's also surprisingly convenient how mining business bloomed during the global chip shortage.

 

Sources

 https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2021/10/24/theres-no-supply-chain-shortage-or-inflation-theres-just-central-planning/?sh=4523c9da1479

[Arika]

sounds like bullshit conspiracy to me.

 

3 minutes ago, Rym said:

 I believe it's extremely interesting how right after covid there was suddenly a perfectly convenient global chip shortage, which conveniently increased the prices of most items that require chips. It's also surprisingly convenient how mining business bloomed during the global chip shortage.

hmmm, i wonder if it maybe has something to do with billions of people now stuck inside and unable to go out and thus buying new devices to occupy their time with?

 

Occam's Razor

[Blademaster91]

I don't want to turn off adblock to read the article, but this interesting, also gets kind of political.

But this reminds me of the news of Intel, AMD, and Nvidia keep saying the shortage won't end any time soon, and TSMC is threatening to not build any foundries in the US. It makes me question if companies are doing shady things on purpose to keep the shortage going on as long as possible, it makes sense from a business standpoint as these companies are making bank from selling less. Also RAM manufacturers have effectively kept costs higher before by reducing supplies.

[AzzaNezz]

5 minutes ago, Arika S said:

sounds like bullshit conspiracy to me.

 

hmmm, i wonder if it maybe has something to do with billions of people now stuck inside and unable to go out and thus buying new devices to occupy their time with?

 

Occam's Razor

Drastic increase in Work from Home,students and schoolars online classes,many people started gaming,that all requires laptops,computers,phones etc.

In the worst scenario they could be overstating the shortage,but they is no way that shortage is a complete bullshit.

There are even conspiracy's that there is shortage because COVID vaccines need microchip inside LMAO.

[dizmo]

This is more of an opinion piece. If this is considered news, so should something I randomly post on my blog. 

 

5 minutes ago, Blademaster91 said:

I don't want to turn off adblock to read the article, but this interesting, also gets kind of political.

But this reminds me of the news of Intel, AMD, and Nvidia keep saying the shortage won't end any time soon, and TSMC is threatening to not build any foundries in the US. It makes me question if companies are doing shady things on purpose to keep the shortage going on as long as possible, it makes sense from a business standpoint as these companies are making bank from selling less. Also RAM manufacturers have effectively kept costs higher before by reducing supplies.

Pretty sure they've already broken ground and are well in their way to finishing the fab. Highly unlikely they'd change course now. 

[mr moose]

Wasn't the chip shortage already happening before covid19?

 

The RAM shortage that turned into a GPU shortage that then became a general chip shortage.   Who knows who controls what chains anymore.

[OhioYJ]

17 minutes ago, Blademaster91 said:

I don't want to turn off adblock to read the article,

 

My hosts file oddly enough doesn't trigger it on this website. Anyways on most of those sites, you can use noscript, basically disable javascript quickly, and the pages will work fine, as their adblock detection will no longer work. When you're done, enable it again. Obviously you could do this without the noscript extension, but the extension blocks other things, and makes it a bit quicker, as it's right on the toolbar if you want.

[seon123]

Not sure how seriously we should take any of these claims ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2021/09/19/stop-vandalizing-reason-end-the-worldwide-travel-bans/

[Lightwreather]

inb4 the thread gets moved to Off-topic or General

[Fasterthannothing]

Wouldn't be the first time companies tired to push up the prices artificially. Chip shortages happened way before Covid once companies realized they could sell more by creating their own shortage. That's why there are limited edition releases that somehow keep getting released. I believe it was Samsung that was fined for price fixing of ram. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.networkworld.com/article/2302369/samsung-exec-pleads-guilty-to-dram-price-fixing.amp.html

[Lightwreather]

3 minutes ago, SlidewaysZ said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.networkworld.com/article/2302369/samsung-exec-pleads-guilty-to-dram-price-fixing.amp.html

Seriously off-topic to the thread. BUt an amp link?

Well, here's the better link: https://www.networkworld.com/article/2302369/samsung-exec-pleads-guilty-to-dram-price-fixing.html

[mariushm]

Well, the conclusion is wrong but Biden hopes to fix something that can't really be fixed by keeping ports open for 24 hours.

You won't magically be able to hire more truckers, more trucks to move shipping containers and so on ...

 

See business insider articles which say over 500k shipping containers are stuck in ports or on ships waiting to be unloaded, because there's not enough workers and vehicles to unload the cargo :

 

Nearly 500K Shipping Containers Are Stuck at Ports

 

Quote

• Key US ports in Southern California are facing near-record backlogs of cargo ships.
• The Port of Long Beach has moved to increase operating hours, which may not be enough to fix the issue.
• Shortages of workers, equipment, and a lack of coordination across the transportation industry created a ripple effect.

The largest port in the US faces a near-record backlog of cargo ships, and there's no end in sight.

On Tuesday, Los Angeles had nearly half a million 20-foot shipping containers — or about 12 million metric tons of goods — waiting in drift areas and at anchor for spots to open up along the port to dock and unload, according to data pulled from the Marine Exchange of Southern California's master queuing list. The port has 19 mega-container ships waiting to dock, the largest of which is carrying 16,022 20-foot shipping containers.

"Part of the problem is the ships are double or triple the size of the ships we were seeing 10 or 15 years ago," Kip Louttit, the executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, told Insider earlier this year. "They take longer to unload. You need more trucks, more trains, more warehouses to put the cargo."

The ports had 90 container ships in the port, 63 of which were waiting off the shore on Tuesday — a number far above the ports pre-pandemic average of zero to one ships at anchor. Due to the volume of ships waiting along the shore, some ships are floating further than 20 miles off the shore in order to keep shipping lanes clear, according to Louttit.

[...]

Longer hours may not be enough.

Gene Seroka, executive director of Port Los Angeles, said longer hours do little to address the backlog when truckers and warehouse operators have not similarly extended their hours. It's not optimal for truckers to pick up loads at night, especially when they'd have to find alternative places to store the goods when the warehouses are not open at night.

What's more, many warehouses near the West Coast don't have space for the goods. About 98% of warehouses in Southern California's logistics-heavy Inland Empire region are fully occupied, while the entire Western U.S. has a 3.6% vacancy rate, according to The Journal.

"It has been nearly impossible to get everyone on the same page towards 24/7 operations," Seroka said.

Shortages of workers and equipment exacerbate delays

A struggle to hire enough workers has had a tremendous impact on the transportation industry nationwide, causing headaches at ports, warehouses, railways, and trucking. Many companies have fewer workers than before the pandemic but face significantly more work due to the boom in demand for goods since the pandemic started.

The shipping delays have made it more difficult for truckers to meet their deadlines and stay on schedule when it comes to picking up goods at ports. 

The backlog has also caused a shortage of containers and the chassis needed to haul them. Containers wait for extended periods in ports, and it takes about twice as much time for operators to return the chassis, the Journal said.

 

Cargo Ships at Key US Ports Could Be Waiting Weeks to Dock: Report

 

 

[LogicalDrm]

50 minutes ago, J-from-Nucleon said:

inb4 the thread gets moved to Off-topic or General

Saves me a bit of writing. Besides, this is week old source.

[battlepants220]

2 hours ago, Rym said:

Summary

 The topic indicates that there is no such thing as a chip shortage in reality, and the shortage we're experiencing is artificial in nature. The purpose is simple, more money.

 

Quotes

 

My thoughts

 I believe it's extremely interesting how right after covid there was suddenly a perfectly convenient global chip shortage, which conveniently increased the prices of most items that require chips. It's also surprisingly convenient how mining business bloomed during the global chip shortage.

 

Sources

 https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2021/10/24/theres-no-supply-chain-shortage-or-inflation-theres-just-central-planning/?sh=4523c9da1479

Covid simply gave way to all the issues that were going to be a problem eventually. Pandemic just hit the gas in the fast lane. There's a huge shortage of a great many things and people like you who try to spread tinfoil conspiracies really just make it harder for us to get through it. Cmon man. Get a job. 

[wamred]

Well, I mean anything is possible but more people were buying computers in the past two years than any other time in history. That is just a fact. 

[tikker]

2 hours ago, Rym said:

 I believe it's extremely interesting how right after covid there was suddenly a perfectly convenient global chip shortage, which conveniently increased the prices of most items that require chips. It's also surprisingly convenient how mining business bloomed during the global chip shortage.

A new virus that we have zero knowledge about and zero protection against and has severe and deadly consequences pops up. Everything shuts down and basically the entire world moves to lockdown to keep the virus in check. Surely this doesn't affect anything and is just a "convenient timing" to increase prices? Yeah no.

 

Sarcasm aside, this all just sounds like conspiracy clickbait to me. There may be plenty of under the table dealing going on, but let's not retroactively turn everything in a big planned conspiracy theory. Mining was popular already and miners were stuffing warehouses full of GPUs before the shortage already. The pandemic just increased it because people lost jobs, sat at home all day and just saw "free" money.

 

We had enough stock to get us through the first couple of months, but after nearly two years it's not feasible to stockpile enough in order to survive that without issues. What we are seeing now is the buffers running dry. It makes perfect sense that it'll take a bit longer for everything to get back on track as only recently have we been able to slowly restart the world basically.

[AlTech]

2 hours ago, Arika S said:

sounds like bullshit conspiracy to me.

Well we know Nvidia is limiting supply artificially to keep prices high so it's not unreasonable to think that other companies are doing the same.

2 hours ago, Arika S said:

hmmm, i wonder if it maybe has something to do with billions of people now stuck inside and unable to go out and thus buying new devices to occupy their time with?

 

Occam's Razor

A lot of devices that were bought last year are being sold now on the used market but prices aren't coming down much at all.

[tikker]

52 minutes ago, AluminiumTech said:

Well we know Nvidia is limiting supply artificially to keep prices high so it's not unreasonable to think that other companies are doing the same.

Do we? I probably missed some news article about it, but I still don't quite believe this. At the pace and price these things are flying off the shelves there'd be little reason for them to limit supply further artificially, moreso as the FE cards are sold at MSRP so they don't gain anything from limiting supply except if they now charge AIBs a lot more.

53 minutes ago, AluminiumTech said:

A lot of devices that were bought last year are being sold now on the used market but prices aren't coming down much at all.

Not too surprising given that people are allergic to cards that have been mined on and still buying them no matter what they cost from retailers (stuff here is still regularly out of stock).

[AlTech]

1 hour ago, tikker said:

Do we? I probably missed some news article about it, but I still don't quite believe this.

Not officially but the usually reliable people like Igor's Lab and MLID have been saying it for a while from sources they trust.

1 hour ago, tikker said:

At the pace and price these things are flying off the shelves there'd be little reason for them to limit supply further artificially, moreso as the FE cards are sold at MSRP so they don't gain anything from limiting supply except if they now charge AIBs a lot more.

I'm not talking FE. FE is basically almost discontinued. This is stock going to AIBs being withheld to keep the AIB card street price above MSRP.

[Blademaster91]

1 hour ago, tikker said:

Do we? I probably missed some news article about it, but I still don't quite believe this. At the pace and price these things are flying off the shelves there'd be little reason for them to limit supply further artificially, moreso as the FE cards are sold at MSRP so they don't gain anything from limiting supply except if they now charge AIBs a lot more.

I remember seeing an article about Nvidia slowing down or stopping production, could've been some rumor though. But Nvidia would never admit they're trying to keep prices inflated.

Although I've never seen an FE card since launch, only Bestbuy has those in the US, and the supply of FE cards is probably really low as Nvidia isn't selling those for 2X the MSRP as the AIB's are.

1 hour ago, tikker said:

Not too surprising given that people are allergic to cards that have been mined on and still buying them no matter what they cost from retailers (stuff here is still regularly out of stock).

Well if I had to pick between a mined on card, a new one, I'd rather have a new card with a warranty as used mining cards aren't much cheaper than new.

[tikker]

1 hour ago, AluminiumTech said:

I'm not talking FE. FE is basically almost discontinued. This is stock going to AIBs being withheld to keep the AIB card street price above MSRP.

Ah right, didn't consider that angle. Though, how does this benefit Nvidia, because as far as I understand they don't gain much from AIB's pricing being super high? Unless they're playing the long game of raising contract pricing between them as well.

51 minutes ago, Blademaster91 said:

I remember seeing an article about Nvidia slowing down or stopping production, could've been some rumor though. But Nvidia would never admit they're trying to keep prices inflated.

Although I've never seen an FE card since launch, only Bestbuy has those in the US, and the supply of FE cards is probably really low as Nvidia isn't selling those for 2X the MSRP as the AIB's are

True, they'd never admit it. I had the opportunity to buy an 3080 Ti FE the other day actually. Sadly my wallet disagreed.

51 minutes ago, Blademaster91 said:

Well if I had to pick between a mined on card, a new one, I'd rather have a new card with a warranty as used mining cards aren't much cheaper than new.

Yeah that's what I was going for and then you end up in this self-sustaining cycle of scalpers and whatnot charging near retail because they can and retail staying high because people will buy anyway.

[SansVarnic]

This is very simple to explain, as I have had to do many times.

If you have any understanding on how supply and demand works you will have an understanding as to why this is. Its not hard, but people make it so.

 

Increased purchasing = increased demand = increased supply. Supply does not increase as fast as demand.

Macro-Economics 101.

No conspiracy, no nothing.

 

Additional, increased demand of commercial good puts a massive strain on shipping - hence why ports are so backed up and will continue to be for a while until the demand is supplied. New ports are not created overnight either.

 

<insert "think about it next time" meme

 

 

 

I could say, prove me wrong or change my mind but I happen to be in a unique position were i get to deal with this directly... and I tell you there is no "secret motive here". 

Now can governments help with this problem? yes and no. That asked, this line of conversation will lead right into politics, and I know that will get this topic locked so I won't go there.

Believe me or don't.

[LAwLz]

Threads like these makes me lose faith in humanity. So many stupid people buying into conspiracy theories. Not just the awful and ridiculously stupid bullshit in the OP but also the conspiracy theories others have posted in this thread, like how Nvidia are supposedly limiting supply. 

[Helpful Tech Witch]

6 hours ago, AluminiumTech said:

Well we know Nvidia is limiting supply artificially to keep prices high so it's not unreasonable to think that other companies are doing the same.

Quote

No we dont.

We have one RUMOR from a (single) inconsistent scourse.

[Jtalk4456]

i'd say it's entirely possible that companies are using the rise in demand to create artificial price raising, but there's no factual evidence of this, and even assuming that to be true, they would be taking advantage of the economy change during covid. If you wanna believe companies are holding chips during high demand, it doesn't make much sense financially, but you do you. However to pretend the global pandemic had no part in creating the situation of higher demand is just factually wrong. We know that more people were inside with devices. That's not an opinion up for debate. You're basically trying to sell me icing on a cake while telling me the cake doesn't exist and the icing is just floating midair