COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING

[atxcyclist]

2 minutes ago, mr moose said:

Whatever, I am not interested in you justifications.  I made my opinions known, you have to deal with that, if you want to pretend there are no issues and try to deflect everything trying make it all about everyone else then knock yourself out, I am not about to debate communism.

Why would you be interested? If you're not talking down to someone from a country you call trash, then why engage them at all, right? The fact is that many industries make it work requiring PPE, social distancing, and minimal in-person interaction, so regardless of your opinion on the matter there's no reason that something working for a grocery store couldn't also work for some other industry that could abide by those same rules. You claiming all these people shouldn't do that even if they risk homelessness and starving after months of no income, makes it a bad viewpoint. You acted like your anecdotal experience of not being homeless anymore, would translate directly if a wave of millions of people becoming homeless all at once in the middle of a pandemic. It's bunk, and you that's claiming to be so intellectual should be able to see the situational difference. 

 

If you want to promote a collective instead of individual rights, then you're already supporting communism. No debate needed.

[atxcyclist]

18 minutes ago, Big Nav said:

So what did Sydney do to prevent an outbreak if 1,000 infected people where introduced into the populous?

 

Just to make a quick comparison: New York City has a population density over 25 times higher than Sydney. Even Austin and Houston have nearly 3 times the density of Sydney. It's much easier to avoid people as population density goes down, which is why there are entire counties in Texas that have one case. 

[mr moose]

1 hour ago, Big Nav said:

So what did Sydney do to prevent an outbreak if 1,000 infected people where introduced into the populous?

Sorry for the wall of txt, I don't want to be to loose with what's happening here. There is a TL:DR at the end.

 

As soon as they discovered the first positive (from the boat) they ordered everyone into lock down and started mass testing.  All those  who came off the boat or into the country had to go into isolation (the government hired hotel rooms to house those with no where to go) and forced isolation for 14 days plus covid tests for anyone with any signs of illness.  Then they shutdown all beaches, restaurant's (the usual stuff) then started fining people for breaching the lock down.  This meant no visiting anyone not even families.  They had 3059 cases in total.  What the predictions and the response from the chief medical advisors (we have several across the country) were saying was that this is the result of of the speed in which they reacted to shut everything down and put the isolation requirements put in place.    They literally shut just about everything, even outside training for football teams.  Then for the month after that they kept it tightly controlled until the reported new cases was down to single digits per day.    We ended up with an effective R0 below 1 for the last half of that last month. 

 

We still aren't allowed to train or gather in groups of more than 5 inside even though our numbers in my state are below 10 and there are only something like 200 in hospital (in the whole country) with virus as we speak.

 

For the most part 80%+ of Australians followed the isolation and lock downs rules to the letter.  Road counters noted only 13% of the traffic on the main roads over easter compared to last year. 

 

 

I have read articles of clusters in churches over there,  the articles say the limit for gatherings is 50, is that true? because if it is that also explains why NSW managed to keep it in check.  We had zero gatherings which ( so when looking at the start of an exponential graph) means a huge difference to the outcome.

 

I tried to find a good way to compare lock down dates,  but there is not enough data to be fair about it, some countries didn't  go into lockvdown until much later and some much earlier, but infection numbers were largely unknown in all cases.  About the only safe bet is that the numbers were significantly higher in parts of the US before they went into lock down as testing was delayed they had no way to know.  Whereas in Australia we were testing before lock down, so as soon as they saw the numbers start to rise in other countries they took no risks.  You could probably argue that is was as much luck as anything that we were doing it.  But then as I was saying earlier, the US had just as much forewarning as we did so they could have started testing much earlier than they did.

 

 

TL:DR

they reacted almost preemptively fast.  I think what we are doing is not much different from everyone else, it just comes down to timing. Mind you, it's easier to be prepared to react faster if you start preparing in 2016.

 

 

[lewdicrous]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-inflammatory-syndrome-children-cuomo-today-us-states-covid-19-a9512851.html

Quote

Health officials are looking into a rare inflammatory syndrome and how it could be impacting children during the coronavirus pandemic.

Now 15 states, including New York, are investigating cases that could be linked to Kawasaki disease ⁠– a rare inflammatory condition that often impacts children aged five years or younger ⁠– and toxic shock syndrome, Governor Andrew Cuomo said during his press briefing on Wednesday.

New York has discovered 102 cases in children that show symptoms similar to the rare disease and are now looking to see if there is a connection with Covid-19.

 

[WkdPaul]

* thread cleaned *

 

Please keep the thread on-topic.

[captain_to_fire]

 

If you want a simplified yet succinct information about Covid-19 especially how it affects different organs in the body, board certified pulmonologist Dr. Mike Hansen is your guy. 

 

The other Dr. Mike is “just fine” but I'm not a fan of his clickbait titles.

[Rolling2405]

On 5/13/2020 at 9:07 AM, Big Nav said:

If most of population is not able to work, how do you think the money will be generated to provide for people?

I would think most people probably have enough saved it's okay if they don't work for a while. If they can't they can apply for government assistance like unemployment benefits. No one is going to die because the economy is bad or they are out of a job. People could die from COVID-19 though.

[Rolling2405]

On 5/13/2020 at 8:54 PM, mr moose said:

from the boat

From the boat you mean Ruby Princess right?

[mr moose]

On 5/14/2020 at 12:53 PM, Big Nav said:

So what did Sydney do to prevent an outbreak if 1,000 infected people where introduced into the populous?

I just want to clarify, My figure was wrong,  it wasn't 1000 infected it was 696 (10% of all Australian infections), there were 1000 let off the boat at that time.  still 70% of those 1000 had covid19 and walked right into Sydney which isn't great by any metric. 

 

Further information suggests most of Australia's can be linked back to that boat, however I personally have a bit of trouble with that given how many people flew back into Australia right up ti mid march before lockdown.

[Rolling2405]

12 minutes ago, mr moose said:

I just want to clarify, My figure was wrong,  it wasn't 1000 infected it was 696 (10% of all Australian infections), there were 1000 let off the boat at that time.  still 70% of those 1000 had covid19 and walked right into Sydney which isn't great by any metric. 

 

Further information suggests most of Australia's can be linked back to that boat, however I personally have a bit of trouble with that given how many people flew back into Australia right up ti mid march before lockdown.

Who caused it? the Australian government or Princess Cruises. Or are they both at fault? I know there's a government investigation but that's all I know. Surprised this still happened even after people know what happened with Diamond Princess and Grand Princess

[mr moose]

23 minutes ago, Thomas001 said:

Who caused it? the Australian government or Princess Cruises. Or are they both at fault? I know there's a government investigation but that's all I know. Surprised this still happened even after people know what happened with Diamond Princess and Grand Princess

There is a criminal investigation currently underway.   As far as I am aware it is the captains responsibility to ensure people are safe to disembark a ship when docked. The captain must report to the dock authorities about this,  the captain takes his advice from the ships doctor.    So even though there are a lot of people blaming the state government, the coast guard the port authority and customs and god knows who else.  I think ultimately every single authority on land can only make a decision based on what the boat reports. 

 

 

I find it a bit hard swallow that the ships doctor thought everyone was healthy enough to depart with 694 cases about to depart (not counting the 100+ cases that remained onboard).  Out of that many cases there should have been people with a fever and/or flu like symptoms.  And word through the media is that signs of a fever is A grade warning to quarantine a ship.

 

Having said that, it is also possible that:

 

If the ruby princess did request help and said we have X number of sick people who need medical treatment and the port authorities let them doc and permitted people to disembark then all bets are off as to who is responsible (likely not the ruby princess).   It seems weird that they would stop following protocols at that point, however if that's what happened then Hopefully the investigation will show us that.  The problem I have with this is that no one needed to ignore protocol in the harbor or the government to make this happen safely and within established guidelines.  So why would anyone break protocol and invite a whole lot of unnecessary trouble when there is no need to?

[Rolling2405]

2 minutes ago, mr moose said:

So why would anyone break protocol and invite a whole lot of unnecessary trouble when there is no need to?

What I don't get is why didn't they learn from Diamond Princess and Grand Princess? It's the same company so they should have said we should do something similar and have everyone quarantine on the ship until there are no more infections and everyone is free of the virus.

[mr moose]

13 minutes ago, Thomas001 said:

What I don't get is why didn't they learn from Diamond Princess and Grand Princess? It's the same company so they should have said we should do something similar and have everyone quarantine on the ship until there are no more infections and everyone is free of the virus.

That is one of the many mysteries of life.  I guess as the old saying goes, common sense isn't actually common.

[Rolling2405]

Despite what's happened with COVID-19 and cruises people are still booking cruises like crazy.

[PhantomJaguarr]

Interesting to see how this will work out and the aftermath.

Quote

The high-stakes dispute over how and when to reopen the economy is hitting the gambling world.

 

San Diego area casinos are planning their big reopenings next week, but health officials now say they are working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to keep them from opening too soon.

 

“Opening up casinos will cause a risk to our public’s health,” said Public Health Officer Dr. Wilma Wooten.

https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/san-diego-county-working-with-cdc-to-stop-next-weeks-reopening-of-casinos/509-9ed1426c-1482-4c8a-b9d2-708063ab07c5

 

Oh, the county backtracked.

 

Quote

A day after suggesting that reopening casinos on local tribal land would be a public health risk, San Diego County’s public health officer walked back the criticism, saying Thursday it is “very clear to us that tribal nations have sovereign authority.”

 

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/story/2020-05-14/coronavirus-summary-may-14-county-walks-back-criticism-of-casino-plans-testing-nears-4-000-in-one-day

Edited May 15, 2020 by PhantomJaguar77

[PhantomJaguarr]

Quote

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - A study by the La Jolla Institute for Immunology found that a coronavirus vaccine is possible.Researchers studied blood samples of twenty people that have recovered from coronavirus. Their research focused on so-called "T-cells." According to Dr. Alessandro Sette, T-Cells "orchestrate the anti-body response, and also the type of cells that seek out and kill the infected cells, so they're the cornerstone of immunity response."

 

Their research found that the body's immune system can recognize COVID-19 in many ways, dispelling fears that a vaccine may not be able to understand and combat it. It provides a benchmark for several vaccines currently being developed.

 

They also looked at blood samples collected from donors between 2015 and 2018, before the pandemic and found something surprising. Though the donors were never exposed to the virus, their t-cells reacted in some capacity. Sette says it could be because the general population encountered some of the more common cold coronaviruses and built some pre-existing immunity levels. It could also explain why the virus affects each person very differently. The findings of the research were published in Thursday's online edition of 'Cell.' The results of their study will be shared with other researchers around the world.

 

https://www.10news.com/news/coronavirus/local-coronavirus-news/la-jolla-institute-study-finds-immunity-from-covid-19-possible

 

Lost count on how many colds I've had in my lifetime so I wonder how my immune system would respond. 

[Dimchez]

As a high school student in Macedonia, the outbreak definitely showed some weak spots in the preparedness of the World to deal with such things.. The situation here with treatments and stuff is fairly good (there's no full hospitals, and nearly everyone gets the treatment they need except some patients that were mis-diagnosed, but their number is ~5).. The number of deaths here is 95 people (it's a fairly small country, with ~2 million people from which 1750 got infected), and I think that this could have been avoided if most of the people took the stuff seriously.. Numbers started to go low around a week ago ( there was like 6 per day), and the restrictions were loosened up, which from my PoV was a mistake, as the people started going out in groups all the time, and the numbers started growing again. It definitely changed a lot of things, and a lot of families got hit hard, but I do believe that with news about possible vaccines, and if people take this more seriously with not believing conspiracy theories that come from unknown sources and following rules, there are gonna be better days.

[Rakanoth]

I have debated people nonstop for the last two months about our response to Covid and it occurred to me that really the core problem is people believe deaths from Covid are preventable.

 

When they said we were going to flatten the curve, people mistakenly started to believe that this was going to prevent the virus from passing through. I saw someone else make the analogy that flatten the curve is like smushing a water balloon. The water inside is deaths from Covid. When we smush the balloon down the amount of water stays the same, it just gets spread out. Same with Covid. The deaths stay the same, they are just more spread out. The only deaths PREVENTED by flatten the curve are those from inadequate medical care.

 

The experts all agree that the horses have left the barn and it's too late to shut the doors. There also isn't ICU shortages in most of the US and I believe most of the world. So why exactly are places like California continuing to lockdown? Why are people freaking out when lockdowns are lifted?

 

While I don't particularly like Neil Ferguson, the original imperial report never called for nationwide lockdowns. They recognized this would cause too much collateral damage. They suggested lockdowns when local (as in county) ICU occupancy reached a certain threshold and lifting the lockdown as soon as it fell below that threshold. If we had followed that advice only select cities in the whole world would have lockdown.

 

The initial selling pitch for lockdowns was that they would prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. A couple months later, hospitals are not overwhelmed. Moreover, it's come out that hospitalization is not some kind of panacea. It seems that the lockdowns are now more about virtue signalling than anything else.

 

It's security theatre, as are masks and the other non evidence based practices we are using. I did complain to a friend about how my state is starting to ease restrictions, but in a painfully slow approach. She pointed out that it might be the best thing to ease the masses back in and avoid throwing fuel on the fire. It is possible (though data from states that are open don't yet seem to support this) that there will be an increase in cases as we start to open. If we just open, people may panic and push for lockdowns again. If we do a slow opening with some handholding, the hope is that people will feel that we are doing something and be more at ease.I hate it all, but I would hate to provide any more gasoline to the dumpster fire that is this mass hysteria.

 

I can't even make a joke about it. Yes, people don't understand most things, including that the media lies, or how to understand the methodology behind what studies say. In part, not everyone has the time to do so, and I don't blame them, but people not understanding things is how life goes, but most of the time the damage the uneducated do is mitigated. In this case, it wasn't. That's it.

 

"Being Wrong Is Human and Will Happen. But Staying Wrong Is a Choice": https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/being-wrong-is-human-and-will-happen-but-staying-wrong-is-a-choice/

 

I'm not blaming scientists for making predictions based on the bad data that we were all dealing with. That kind of thing is going to happen - science has to be wrong before it becomes right. I AM blaming people for not educating themselves now that we have much better data, but are continuing to speak like authorities on the matter. I was pro lockdown and very worried at first. The only data we had was Italy, which looked terrifying. When this thing first started, I was one of those people yelling out “stay home everyone! You’re killing people”. Then more studies came out and more information was available to us and now I’ve completely changed my view. I have zero issues admitting I was wrong. A lot of us didn’t have the information at the time BUT now we do!! It’s time for people to change their opinion and know that it’s OK!

 

"No initial coronavirus case surge in Georgia after US state opens early":

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/no-initial-coronavirus-case-surge-georgia-early-reopening/

 

"But we need to wait 2 more weeks!"; "The calm before the second wave!!!"; "Yeah but they’re lying about the positive tests!"

 

I mean at the end of the day, the positive case load doesn’t matter all that much. Hospitalization rates mean more and are much more easily tracked. If anyone suggests that Georgia is lying about their numbers, they're simply engaging in conspiracy theories. The onus is absolutely on them to prove their conspiracy theory. You can shrug these people off by telling them they're wrong and that there is virtually no evidence to support their conspiracy. And if they push their phony theory, just inform them of the hospitalization rates and remind them that the purpose of the lockdown was to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, and that the hospitalization rates and ventilator usage prove that this is not happening.

 

"U.S. homelessness could increase 45% because of coronavirus unemployment, study says":

https://www.latimes.com/homeless-housing/story/2020-05-14/coronavirus-unemployment-homeless-study-increase-45-percent

 

Much like the doomers said COVID would be world-ending, we must resist the urge to be economic doomers. 88% of the unemployed are expected to be rehired on reopening. The world is not ending as long as we keep accelerating reopening.

 

[WkdPaul]

5 minutes ago, Rakanoth said:

I have debated people nonstop for the last two months about our response to Covid and it occurred to me that really the core problem is people believe deaths from Covid are preventable.

 

When they said we were going to flatten the curve, people mistakenly started to believe that this was going to prevent the virus from passing through. I saw someone else make the analogy that flatten the curve is like smushing a water balloon. The water inside is deaths from Covid. When we smush the balloon down the amount of water stays the same, it just gets spread out. Same with Covid. The deaths stay the same, they are just more spread out. The only deaths PREVENTED by flatten the curve are those from inadequate medical care.

If hospitals are overwhelmed and don't have enough ICU beds and ventilators, then yes, preventable deaths occur. Why do you think there was a rush to build ventilators in the first place?

 

That's the whole point of flattening the curve, making sure to save preventable deaths.

 

5 minutes ago, Rakanoth said:

There also isn't ICU shortages in most of the US and I believe most of the world.

Because of the lockdowns maybe ?

 

5 minutes ago, Rakanoth said:

*snip*

Yeah, the rest is pretty much what you keep parroting in the last 10 pages.

 

Again, nobody wants the lockdowns to last indefinitely, hospitals are not overwhelmed BECAUSE of the lockdowns, and lockdowns are there to avoid preventable deaths due to hospitals being overwhelmed.

 

 

I do believe that smaller areas that weren't much affected should be allowed to reopen WITH regulations. But that's left to the states and cities to deal with. But telling people that are in heavily affected area that they're "virtue signaling" because they're against reopening is rather disingenuous and dismissive. As I said, not everyone is against the re-openings.

[Rakanoth]

7 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

If hospitals are overwhelmed and don't have enough ICU beds and ventilators, then yes, preventable deaths occur. Why do you think there was a rush to build ventilators in the first place?

 

That's the whole point of flattening the curve, making sure to save preventable deaths.

 

Because of the lockdowns maybe ?

 

 

There are countries that have not applied a strict lockdown and their numbers are stable.

Germany relaxed the restrictions a ton and their numbers are still decreasing.

[WkdPaul]

2 minutes ago, Rakanoth said:

There are countries that have not applied a strict lockdown and their numbers are stable.

Germany relaxed the restrictions a ton and their numbers are still decreasing.

Last I checked, USA or Canada isn't Germany.

 

BTW, IMO, lower pop density areas should be allowed to re-open while following social-distancing. But I'm not pretending to be an expert in the matter.

[lewdicrous]

26 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

Last I checked, USA or Canada isn't Germany.

You know it's bad when Canada wants to extend the travel restrictions between it and the US.

 

Edit: added some links.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/05/14/news/canada-wants-extend-us-travel-ban

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2020/05/report-canada-extend-travel-ban-june-21-200513141155531.html

https://www.cicnews.com/2020/04/canadian-travel-ban-exemptions-do-not-override-inadmissibility-0414195.html/amp

[WkdPaul]

14 hours ago, Thomas001 said:

I would think most people probably have enough saved it's okay if they don't work for a while.

Most people live paycheck to paycheck and have no savings.

14 hours ago, Thomas001 said:

If they can't they can apply for government assistance like unemployment benefits.

Contrary to Canada, it looks like the US failed on that front, some people are reporting not being able to register, while others haven't received anything weeks after registering for unemployment. Meanwhile in Canada, it takes a few days to get your benefits and registration is done online.

[Rolling2405]

6 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

Most people live paycheck to paycheck and have no savings.

This is where unemployment benefits would come into play.

 

But

 

11 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

the US failed on that front, some people are reporting not being able to register, while others haven't received anything weeks after registering for unemployment.

I can see how this is a problem

[Zodiark1593]

12 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

Most people live paycheck to paycheck and have no savings.

Contrary to Canada, it looks like the US failed on that front, some people are reporting not being able to register, while others haven't received anything weeks after registering for unemployment. Meanwhile in Canada, it takes a few days to get your benefits and registration is done online.

As with many things, unemployment is generally up to the states for implementation. The federal government is pretty hands-off in this regard. Some states are doing quite well with keeping up on unemployment, some are kind of sinking ships.