Will the price of used and new cars go down?

[c00face]

This push for 'renewable energy' and higher gas prices seem to be shifting consumers for electric cars as most can't deal with the climbing gas prices (another topic about gas prices.) I have this hunch that most will trade in their gas powered cars for an electric vehicle. That leaves me to believe that the price of gasoline powered cars will start to tank, as you won't have a lot of consumers wanting it.

[bmx6454]

maybe years in the future, but for now, they are going to continue to skyrocket. it isn't just gas prices that are the factor here, a lot of other variables. some people might not want electric cars, such as myself(i'll take a free one if anyone is offering though).

[Dillpickle23422]

16 minutes ago, c00face said:

This push for 'renewable energy' and higher gas prices seem to be shifting consumers for electric cars as most can't deal with the climbing gas prices (another topic about gas prices.) I have this hunch that most will trade in their gas powered cars for an electric vehicle. That leaves me to believe that the price of gasoline powered cars will start to tank, as you won't have a lot of consumers wanting it.

Doubtful. Depending on location, maybe. In the UK, almost definitely, as they plan to completely replace all ICE cars with electric. The US, however, has a shitty power grid that could not possibly think of handling the amount of power required to charge said cars. Once the US gets it's act together, then I could see the price of ICE cars falling. As @bmx6454said, there are other factors. Most people will just hold on and bite the bullet with the gas prices. Basic rule of supply and demand will work, and the prices will fall. Most folks know enough to just wait. If these prices held like this for half a year, I could feasibly see a lot of people going and buying more fuel efficient cars (in the case of the US, a predominatly gas hog SUV country) and people in areas with sufficient infrastructure probably might consider an electric car.

In my personal case, I am already considering a more fuel efficient vehicle, as I currently get ~12mpg city (most of my driving) and ~15 highway. I really don't need such a gas hog regardless of fuel cost, and I would love more than 3 seats for my friends and some backpack space.

[JogerJ]

Theoretically used cars should become cheaper as they're a liability, but not this past couple years. Car manufacturing is one of the most affected industry due to chip shortages. No chips means no fancy car entertainment systems or ECUs, which means no finished car, which means you can't ship an unfinished car, which means less supply which means cars become more expensive. Also because of the pandemic people are going back to cars instead of taking public transport so demand is actually rising.

 

One of several factors, when pandemic hit the first time, car rental companies are selling their cars to cut their losses from maintaining upkeep (might as well refresh their fleet with fresh new cars when the pandemic is over). Now that the world is opening up again, these companies would buy new cars in bulk and it's one of the contributing factors to high demands

As for mainland Europe for example, gas prices are expensive but electricity even more so. People rely on government subsidies to provide incentive to buy an electric car instead of gas. We still haven't reached that equilibrium where gas is more expensive than going electric

 

There's just many factors at play that when summed up apparently trends towards rising car prices

 

[HeroRareheart]

8 minutes ago, JogerJ said:

As for mainland Europe for example, gas prices are expensive but electricity even more so. People rely on government subsidies to provide incentive to buy an electric car instead of gas. We still haven't reached that equilibrium where gas is more expensive than going electric

IT took me legit years to fine a nissan leaf if good used condition for a reasonable price, so it's for sure going to be at least a few more years before they're cheap enough to start being compelling.

 

That said going 100 miles on 4 dollars is nice when my grandparents' cars need $16-$20 to go the same distance lol.

[8tg]

As someone who works in the supply chain to the automotive industry in the US, I can say right now they’re playing catch up at the assembly plants.

When we start to see that stock trickle into the market I do not know, but we’re the busiest we’ve been in months now.

[Action_Johnson]

Once there's a gazillion new cars to buy and sit on the lot and the Dealer Markups go away because there's plenty of supply, then prices will go back down in the used market. 

 

New car prices never go down. 

[Oshino Shinobu]

Fuel prices are high due to a number of factors right now, they should (hopefully) return to normal in time. As for people trading in for electric cars, I doubt many will be doing that if their reasoning is they can't afford the fuel cost. Electric cars aren't cheap, even the small and low performance ones.

 

I don't think the large switch over to electric will be any time soon, they've still got a long way to go before it makes sense for a lot of people. Not just the cars either, it's about the infrastructure and charging technology that isn't being rolled out or developed anywhere near fast enough to meet a lot of goals some governments are setting. Right now you need to commit to being an early adopter and deal with the issues that come with it. A family member recently bought an electric car and the range and time it takes to charge is a constant consideration and needs to be calculated if you're not fully charged or are going on a long journey. If you forgot to charge or something goes wrong with the charger overnight and you need the car in the morning, you're going to be pretty much screwed when you get in the car and realise too late you need to spend at least an hour waiting for it to charge before you can set off. 

 

In terms of petrol (not so much diesel) powered cars dropping in price, I think some will drop significantly as they're not particularly desirable but rare, high performance, classic etc. ones will probably continue to climb in price, especially when production stops. Some people will just move over to electric when (if) it becomes the norm, but there will be those that will want to stick with internal combustion simply because they like it. I'll probably be one of those as I like cars and how they can sound, but electric cars really do nothing for me. The torque from them can be nice, but I find them all incredibly boring, even when they can do 0-60 in under 3s

 

If we're talking short term pricing, that's also a number of factors. Increased demand as people are starting to return to work in offices and the chip shortage preventing new cars from being produced fast enough has increased both new and used car prices. My car's currently worth more than I bought it for 3 years ago with nearly 25,000 extra miles on it. 

 

EDIT: Electric cars also lose a lot of value when the batteries are getting old and often a replacement or rebuild of the batteries will cost more than the car is worth at that point. Unfortunately with current battery tech, it's unlikely we'll see cars last anywhere near as long as internal combustion cars can. It remains to be seen if having to replace the cars more often with "dirty" materials like lithium, cobalt etc. is actually better for the environment or any more sustainable. Switching over to bio-fuels which can be grown and cutting carbon emissions elsewhere may end up being a better long term solution.

[Needfuldoer]

24 minutes ago, Oshino Shinobu said:

A family member recently bought an electric car and the range and time it takes to charge is a constant consideration and needs to be calculated if you're not fully charged or are going on a long journey. If you forgot to charge or something goes wrong with the charger overnight and you need the car in the morning, you're going to be pretty much screwed when you get in the car and realise too late you need to spend at least an hour waiting for it to charge before you can set off. 

This is why I won't get down off my "plug-in hybrids make the most sense with today's technology" soapbox.

 

Forget to charge? Oh well, you'll only get 40+ MPG today.

 

Battery manufacturing capacity? If a plug-in hybrid has 1/3 the batteries of a BEV, and still gets reasonable commuting range from that before starting the engine, that's three times as many cars driving around on electricity for the same number of batteries as one BEV. They just haul around an engine and fuel tank instead of a whack ton of extra batteries for "but sometimes I go on long trips" energy.

 

Speaking of, are you taking a long trip? You can just fill up at gas stations, same as any other car.

 

Cold in the winter? Heat doesn't cost you range when it's coming from a running engine.

 

"The grid can't handle EVs"? It can handle electric space heaters just fine, and you can get a day's worth of average driving from an overnight 1,200 watt charge.

[steelo]

3 minutes ago, Needfuldoer said:

This is why I won't get down off my "plug-in hybrids make the most sense with today's technology" soapbox.

 

Forget to charge? Oh well, you'll only get 40+ MPG today.

 

Battery manufacturing capacity? If a plug-in hybrid has 1/3 the batteries of a BEV, and still gets reasonable commuting range from that before starting the engine, that's three times as many cars driving around on electricity for the same number of batteries as one BEV. They just haul around an engine and fuel tank instead of a whack ton of extra batteries for "but sometimes I go on long trips" energy.

 

Speaking of, are you taking a long trip? You can just fill up at gas stations, same as any other car.

 

Cold in the winter? Heat doesn't cost you range when it's coming from a running engine.

The problem with hybrid vehicles (at least here in the U.S.) is selection is very limited. Sure, I can find a subcompact prius for around $25k that will provide basic transportation. However, if I want something like a tesla or a rav4 hybrid, I will need to shell out $40k usd and pray there are charging stations when I go on a long trip with the tesla.

[Oshino Shinobu]

2 minutes ago, Needfuldoer said:

This is why I won't get down off my "plug-in hybrids make the most sense with today's technology" soapbox.

 

Forget to charge? Oh well, you'll only get 40+ MPG today.

 

Battery manufacturing capacity? If a plug-in hybrid has 1/3 the batteries of a BEV, and still gets reasonable commuting range from that before starting the engine, that's three times as many cars driving around on electricity for the same number of batteries as one BEV. They just haul around an engine and fuel tank instead of a whack ton of extra batteries for "but sometimes I go on long trips" energy.

 

Speaking of, are you taking a long trip? You can just fill up at gas stations, same as any other car.

 

Cold in the winter? Heat doesn't cost you range when it's coming from a running engine.

We're definitely not there with battery tech. I'm still sceptical of electric vehicles genuinely being the future without a major breakthrough in battery tech, making them last significantly longer (in terms of life span, not just capacity) and less "dirty" to make. 

 

I feel like if we continue down the current path without any major developments, we'll run into massive problems and shortages due to the materials required to make so many electric vehicles. 

[steelo]

43 minutes ago, Oshino Shinobu said:

We're definitely not there with battery tech. I'm still sceptical of electric vehicles genuinely being the future without a major breakthrough in battery tech, making them last significantly longer (in terms of life span, not just capacity) and less "dirty" to make. 

 

I feel like if we continue down the current path without any major developments, we'll run into massive problems and shortages due to the materials required to make so many electric vehicles. 

I also fear that there will be catastophic accidents resulting in batteries exploding upon impact. A vehicle loaded with 600 lbs of lipo batteries is perhaps more dangerous than a car laoded with gasoline.

[Needfuldoer]

27 minutes ago, steelo said:

The problem with hybrid vehicles (at least here in the U.S.) is selection is very limited. Sure, I can find a subcompact prius for around $25k that will provide basic transportation. However, if I want something like a tesla or a rav4 hybrid, I will need to shell out $40k usd and pray there are charging stations when I go on a long trip with the tesla.

I think that was more because the industry made a wrong turn than an inherent problem with the technology. Humans have metallurgy pretty well figured out. We can make a small engine with adequate power for less cost than a gigantic battery pack full of exotic, somewhat unstable chemicals. 

 

The biggest problem they faced was marketing. Cars are almost universally marketed to the lower brain. "GRR SUCH POWER BIG NUMBERS WOW!" moves a lot more units than appealing to Vulcan practicality. "This is 'MERICA, we don't drive wussy little tiny cars with weed whacker engines, we drive big tough lifted quad cab F-30000s, muscle cars, and Jeeps with constipated Darth Vader grilles on them! How can a hybrid be any fun to drive?! Hybrids are like those Priuses I smoke out with my diesel tune!" I think that's why Tesla pushed the performance and driving dynamics of their cars first and foremost, then everyone else started copying them.

 

I've had a second-gen Volt for four years. When people ask me about it, explaining "it's an electric car that has a gas generator built in" goes one of two ways: Usually I'll get a befuddled "but if it's electric, why would you put gas in it?" or "then why not just get a regular car?". But sometimes they'll completely 'get it', and I've actually gotten at least a couple others on board.

 

The other problem was that they went all-in on small cars with limited market appeal. The second-gen Volt, for example, shouldn't even exist. It should have been a powertrain option for the Chevy Equinox, its crossover cousin on the same platform. The only other cars the Voltec hybrid powertrain wound up in were the Malibu hybrid (which has a tiny battery and doesn't plug in) and the Cadillac ELR (a tarted-up first gen Volt). One sedan (a dying market segment) and a lambasted version of an already niche car. Few units sold means few units to amortize the R&D costs across.

 

That limited market appeal doomed the plug-in hybrid concept to a footnote on the path to battery electric cars. The RAV4 Prime is basically the only example left of where I think the market should've gone: EV-ish versions of the cars people actually buy.

 

23 minutes ago, Oshino Shinobu said:

We're definitely not there with battery tech. I'm still sceptical of electric vehicles genuinely being the future without a major breakthrough in battery tech, making them last significantly longer (in terms of life span, not just capacity) and less "dirty" to make. 

 

I feel like if we continue down the current path without any major developments, we'll run into massive problems and shortages due to the materials required to make so many electric vehicles. 

There are first-gen Volts out there with 200,000 miles or more on them, with minimal battery degradation. Adequate thermal management and over-provisioning the battery increase the pack's life dramatically. The reason so many early Nissan Leaf batteries wore out fast is because they were air cooled, so the batteries got too hot and lost capacity. The Volt (and I believe the Prius Prime and Rav4 Prime) all have liquid-cooled batteries. They also keep themselves charged between 20% and 80%, never filling the pack completely to capacity. That lets you get more charge/discharge cycles out of a battery before it starts losing total capacity.

 

[steelo]

15 minutes ago, Needfuldoer said:

I think that was more because the industry made a wrong turn than an inherent problem with the technology. Humans have metallurgy pretty well figured out. We can make a small engine with adequate power for less cost than a gigantic battery pack full of exotic, somewhat unstable chemicals. 

 

The biggest problem they faced was marketing. Cars are almost universally marketed to the lower brain. "GRR SUCH POWER BIG NUMBERS WOW!" moves a lot more units than appealing to Vulcan practicality. "This is 'MERICA, we don't drive wussy little tiny cars with weed whacker engines, we drive big tough lifted quad cab F-30000s, muscle cars, and Jeeps with constipated Darth Vader grilles on them! How can a hybrid be any fun to drive?! Hybrids are like those Priuses I smoke out with my diesel tune!" I think that's why Tesla pushed the performance and driving dynamics of their cars first and foremost, then everyone else started copying them.

 

I've had a second-gen Volt for four years. When people ask me about it, explaining "it's an electric car that has a gas generator built in" goes one of two ways: Usually I'll get a befuddled "but if it's electric, why would you put gas in it?" or "then why not just get a regular car?". But sometimes they'll completely 'get it', and I've actually gotten at least a couple others on board.

 

The other problem was that they went all-in on small cars with limited market appeal. The second-gen Volt, for example, shouldn't even exist. It should have been a powertrain option for the Chevy Equinox, its crossover cousin on the same platform. The only other cars the Voltec hybrid powertrain wound up in were the Malibu hybrid (which has a tiny battery and doesn't plug in) and the Cadillac ELR (a tarted-up first gen Volt). One sedan (a dying market segment) and a lambasted version of an already niche car. Few units sold means few units to amortize the R&D costs across.

 

That limited market appeal doomed the plug-in hybrid concept to a footnote on the path to battery electric cars. The RAV4 Prime is basically the only example left of where I think the market should've gone: EV-ish versions of the cars people actually buy.

I have a 'ecobox' 2019 Jetta that achieves 45 mpg on the interstate on a long trip. This car cost me <$20k. Why would I spend close to $10k more for a vehicle that will take 5-10 years to pay the difference?

[Needfuldoer]

31 minutes ago, steelo said:

I have a 'ecobox' 2019 Jetta that achieves 45 mpg on the interstate on a long trip. This car cost me <$20k. Why would I spend close to $10k more for a vehicle that will take years to pay the difference?

And that's the other side of the coin. If your only concern is fuel efficiency, you'll go for the ruthless economy stripper base model Jetta, Civic, Corolla, Versa, etc and get mid-30s to low 40s on gas in mixed driving. Logically, that's all most people need for basic transportation.

 

I get 120 MPGe on the battery in mixed driving. At my electric rate, that's the same cost per mile as if gas was $1.60 a gallon. And I almost never have to buy gas from April to October. (And 300 pound feet of instant torque makes my lead foot happy.) The car this car replaced got 25 MPG on premium.

 

But that's why I've been comparing plug-in hybrids to full electric cars, not to traditional ICE cars. Batteries are more expensive to manufacture than engines, locking 2/3 of them away inside a relatively small number of cars because "but sometimes I drive more than 60 miles in a day" doesn't make as much sense to me as a hybrid. They're most of the EV experience, without as many of the drawbacks.

[Mihle]

The new battery tech that seem closest to be a thing is solid state batteries.

 

Batteries don't wear as fast as some think they do. I think some Tesla's have lost 15% after 320k KM driven.

 

I think around 60% of new cars in Norway is fully electric and 20% is hybrids, if I remember right.

 

The world generally need more more trains, metro/subways and cities need to be more bikable/walkable.

[Donut417]

11 hours ago, c00face said:

I have this hunch that most will trade in their gas powered cars for an electric vehicle. That leaves me to believe that the price of gasoline powered cars will start to tank, as you won't have a lot of consumers wanting it.

It comes down to the other costs associated with electric cars. For example if you want to install a fast charger at home, depending on the age of your home, you might need to upgrade your electrical service, which can costs 10s of thousands of dollars. Electric cars at least in Michigan have higher registration costs each year than gas cars, mainly due to the fact these people dont pay gas taxes. From what I heard the power company DTE intends to raise rates, so its not like your going to get away from higher costs. 

 

Another thing is gas cars have better resale value. Tesla wanted $22k to replace the battery in a 10 year old ride, most are not going to do that. Toyota claimed something like 90% of their cars are on the rode even after 20 years of use, and yes there are many people around me who drive old ass cars because thats what they can afford. There are also a lot more gas stations than charging stations around these parts. 

 

The switch to electric is going to take decades. Power grids have to be upgraded. More power plants potentially built, probably need to invest more in to nuclear power as gas and coal power plants kinda defeats the purpose of going to an electric car. Homes need to be upgraded in a way to support charging. Charging stations need to be built. Hopefully the right to repair movement can help with making it easier to replace the batteries when they need to be replaced, OR else electric cards will become throw away items. 

[Stahlmann]

35 minutes ago, Donut417 said:

It comes down to the other costs associated with electric cars. For example if you want to install a fast charger at home, depending on the age of your home, you might need to upgrade your electrical service, which can costs 10s of thousands of dollars. Electric cars at least in Michigan have higher registration costs each year than gas cars, mainly due to the fact these people dont pay gas taxes. From what I heard the power company DTE intends to raise rates, so its not like your going to get away from higher costs. 

 

Another thing is gas cars have better resale value. Tesla wanted $22k to replace the battery in a 10 year old ride, most are not going to do that. Toyota claimed something like 90% of their cars are on the rode even after 20 years of use, and yes there are many people around me who drive old ass cars because thats what they can afford. There are also a lot more gas stations than charging stations around these parts. 

 

The switch to electric is going to take decades. Power grids have to be upgraded. More power plants potentially built, probably need to invest more in to nuclear power as gas and coal power plants kinda defeats the purpose of going to an electric car. Homes need to be upgraded in a way to support charging. Charging stations need to be built. Hopefully the right to repair movement can help with making it easier to replace the batteries when they need to be replaced, OR else electric cards will become throw away items. 

The main problem with changing batteries on a car is how they're built afaik. They're almost always used for the base structure of the car, so there is no easy way of just switching it without disassembling half ot the car. If they're just make it more modular it could be much easier. The next problem is that there are no standard batteries. Every electric car's battery has a different shape or capacity. If there would be a few batteries that would be interchangeable like for example all AAA batteries are then cost would also come down significantly.

[JogerJ]

54 minutes ago, Stahlmann said:

The main problem with changing batteries on a car is how they're built afaik. They're almost always used for the base structure of the car, so there is no easy way of just switching it without disassembling half ot the car. If they're just make it more modular it could be much easier. The next problem is that there are no standard batteries. Every electric car's battery has a different shape or capacity. If there would be a few batteries that would be interchangeable like for example all AAA batteries are then cost would also come down significantly.

Batteries are heavy. Which is why you want it as low as possible to the base of the car to keep the car balanced, you don't want your car to easily roll over. You also want them as centered as possible. Hence the following design:

 

Sure it's harder to replace compared to an oil change but it's not impossible to be made modular and servicable.

[Anghammarad]

I would say that going full electric isn't in the infrastructure right now... at least here in germany... 

 

The whole electricity network isn't built for everyone charging their Electric car... the whole net must be upgraded, and then we would need much more electricity delivered then we have right now. 

 

Else, in germany the most people live in rental flats, with no own parking lot for their car... like me for example, I gotta search a praking spot every evening when coming home, so again no easy "plugin and charge" solution at home again... 

 

Going full electric seems "clean" but the waste that gets made while building that car, battery, electricity... well someone did a calculation and a ICE car right now ist mostly more eco friendly until way into the 6 digit miles if you put all the stuff together... 

[tkitch]

given enough time, pricing will return to non-horrible levels, but that won't be "soon"

[Rauten]

I work in a company that has some automotive clients.

My reaction when I saw this thread?

 

[Donut417]

3 hours ago, Stahlmann said:

there are no standard batteries.

In the US there are like 5 competing types of chargers as well. Europe I believe standardized on one, but typical America to do things the hard way. 

[Sauron]

It's going up and there are no signs of it stopping in the near future. The fuel price hike is likely temporary (and also seems to be artificial) and besides it also affects the price of electricity.

 

I know of people who have been offered more money than they spent by the dealership so they can take the car back and sell it to a leasing firm.

[Zodiark1593]

15 hours ago, Oshino Shinobu said:

We're definitely not there with battery tech. I'm still sceptical of electric vehicles genuinely being the future without a major breakthrough in battery tech, making them last significantly longer (in terms of life span, not just capacity) and less "dirty" to make. 

 

I feel like if we continue down the current path without any major developments, we'll run into massive problems and shortages due to the materials required to make so many electric vehicles. 

Absolutely correct. If battery tech doesn’t advance sufficiently, we’ll just have to come to terms with the fact that moving around thousands of pounds of metal, at highway speeds, really takes a lot of energy. And we’d probably have to find a smarter way to address transportation than brute force (ie, shove more battery cells in the thing).