Did you think the chip shortages were getting better? Think again. Intel confirms WCCF rumour that the entire industry is running out of substrates.

[Master Disaster]

2 minutes ago, CarlBar said:

 

Again though thats going to be eaten up pretty hard by the difference in scale. AMD, or rather TSMC doesn't have the production capacity to take away the majority of Intel's customer base. Intel's scale lead in terms of compute node fab capacity is just huge. they could be running at significantly reduced capacity and still have a bigger market share than AMD on that basis alone.

Even if it is true (about TSMC having their own suppliers) I find it hard to believe they'll escape totally unharmed. You have to imagine whoever is supplying TSMC will look to pick up some of the slack for everyone else.

[CarlBar]

Just now, Master Disaster said:

Even if it is true (about TSMC having their own suppliers) I find it hard to believe they'll escape totally unharmed. You have to imagine whoever is supplying TSMC will look to pick up some of the slack for everyone else.

 

Yes and no, TSMC likely has large long-term contracts in place, said supplier will only be able to take advantage if they can fulfil all of TSMC's orders first.

[StDragon]

Computing hardware is going up, way up in price over the next 10 years beyond the rate of inflation. With near a TRILLION USD being spent on new fabrication, that investment has to get paid off, with interest. Well, the funds to do so won't come out of thin air.

 

Big Silicon is the new "Big Oil". A commodity where CPU cycles are just as fungible as the hydrocarbon in terms of BTUs sought after.

 

Now, just to be clear, I'm not suggesting this as an investment opportunity. But what I am saying is that if you plan on building a new PC or buying a new iPhone, It's probably best you make that decision within the next year or so. That, and this news doesn't exactly give me the warm fuzzies.

[Master Disaster]

5 minutes ago, StDragon said:

That, and this news doesn't exactly give me the warm fuzzies.

Its The Sun, calling them a rag outlet is being disrespectful to actual rags.

[StDragon]

16 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

Its The Sun, calling them a rag outlet is being disrespectful to actual rags.

It's not the first time such threats were reported on. As for The Sun, I'm not sure if that's fake news or not. There are some choice quotes in that article that's disturbing to say the very least.

 

Regardless, my point still stands. I don't see prices dropping over the long haul; quite the opposite. And if WW3 breaks out, frankly there will be much bigger issues that go beyond the scope of this topic. But, the likely hood is a factor in the overall risk of pricing hardware; just to be clear on that fact.

[CerealExperimentsLain]

6 hours ago, porina said:

Out of interest, are you seeing constraint in server supplies?

My employer has had huge issues in getting hardware in a timely fashion from Dell as we build out.  Stuff is late or they can only get us 5 units at a time, ect.  We got the money but they lack the supply as our data center expands.  Been an issue since late 2020.

[CerealExperimentsLain]

4 hours ago, Murasaki said:

So am i supposed to panic buy my future ryzen cpu now?

If new hardware takes long enough to get, every PC gamer becomes a retro PC Gamer!  Never too late to run a nice source port of Doom (1993) or Quake (1996), they'll run great on anything!

[Kronoton]

3 hours ago, CarlBar said:

Yes and no, TSMC likely has large long-term contracts in place, said supplier will only be able to take advantage if they can fulfil all of TSMC's orders first.

 

That is the reason why such small issues will have a big effect on consumer pricing just like it did with the RAM-crisis of the past.

If 90% of production is already prebooked in hard contract (which I'm sure is the case for server CPUs, but also some consumer ones) and you have a 10% downturn nothing is left for the open market, hence prices skyrocket without demand moving at all  or even declining.

 

So the Wafer-fab has a contract with TSMC for most of their production capacity. TSMC has contracts with Apple and other for most of their production capacity.

Add just a bit of "free" substrate going elsewhere and you hamper TSMC's ability to produce more "free" silicon which will then be sought after by costumer who couldn't get an Intel chip.

[TetraSky]

Welp, I'm never getting that new GPU. I'm converting to mobile gaming.

[StDragon]

1 hour ago, CerealExperimentsLain said:

My employer has had huge issues in getting hardware in a timely fashion from Dell as we build out.  Stuff is late or they can only get us 5 units at a time, ect.  We got the money but they lack the supply as our data center expands.  Been an issue since late 2020.

I've noticed that too when pricing out Dell PowerEdge units too. So far our quotes are good for 30 days, but that might change if not already.

 

In the construction industry, builders were eating it hard when bidding for contracts only to have costs in lumber supplies run away from them to the point of being underwater. Last I heard, they factor in the price being "market rate" which means the buyer won't know the final price until after completion; if that's the terms they agreed too during negotiations. Ouch!

[Master Disaster]

7 minutes ago, Sampsy said:

Yeah well keep in mind intel will say anything to deflect the blame for their terrible earnings. Mountain of salt required.

Quote

• Second-quarter GAAP revenue of $19.6 billion, flat year over year (YoY), and non-GAAP revenue of $18.5 billion, up 2% YoY, which exceeded April guidance by $700 million.
• Second-quarter GAAP earnings-per-share (EPS) was $1.24; non-GAAP EPS was $1.28, which exceeded April guidance by $0.23.
• Exceeded Q2 guidance for revenue, EPS, and gross margin; record Q2 revenue in PC and Mobileye businesses.
• Raising full-year 2021 guidance. Now expecting GAAP revenue of $77.6 billion and non-GAAP revenue of $73.5 billion; GAAP EPS of $4.09 and non-GAAP EPS of $4.80.

https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1485/intel-reports-second-quarter-2021-financial-results

 

Intel are doing just fine.

[bcredeur97]

11 hours ago, Eigenvektor said:

I think you answered your own question. Server stuff has a better margin and they are more likely to accept a price hike, so it makes sense to prioritize these customers.

 

If you lose the business of a few individual consumers, who cares, they'll come back eventually. If you lose business customers who order a large amount of hardware each year, it's a different story.

not to mention infrastructure is usually a bit more important than ppl playing video games lol

[Master Disaster]

7 minutes ago, bcredeur97 said:

not to mention infrastructure is usually a bit more important than ppl playing video games lol

You think office terminals run on Xeons?

[GDRRiley]

4 hours ago, CarlBar said:

 

Again though thats going to be eaten up pretty hard by the difference in scale. AMD, or rather TSMC doesn't have the production capacity to take away the majority of Intel's customer base. Intel's scale lead in terms of compute node fab capacity is just huge. they could be running at significantly reduced capacity and still have a bigger market share than AMD on that basis alone.

they can't take away the majority but even another 10% of intels customers moving to AMD would help AMD grow a lot and would allow AMD to push TSMC to reduce bottlenecks further on the nodes apple leaves

4 hours ago, Master Disaster said:

Even if it is true (about TSMC having their own suppliers) I find it hard to believe they'll escape totally unharmed. You have to imagine whoever is supplying TSMC will look to pick up some of the slack for everyone else.

they can't really, substrait is the kind of thing you QC and test for at least a year before you bring on a new supplier. its why it back in 2020 it was expected that new substrait suppliers would take until Q2 2022

2 hours ago, CerealExperimentsLain said:

My employer has had huge issues in getting hardware in a timely fashion from Dell as we build out.  Stuff is late or they can only get us 5 units at a time, ect.  We got the money but they lack the supply as our data center expands.  Been an issue since late 2020.

interesting, We've had 0 issues but we often have pre release stuff or massive contracts for systems

[Distinctly Average]

11 hours ago, Master Disaster said:

.

 

Intel server customers are likely to buy Intel replacements no matter how much it costs them, Joe Consumer is gonna shrug, say Fuck It and buy an AMD instead. AMD is going to retake the consumer CPU crown and IMO its unlikely Intel will be in a position to retake it any time soon.

 

 

Partly true. I work for a company that makes servers, mainframes, storage and the like. We are more the customers of Intel than our customers are. I am sure most of our customers are not too bothered which brand the CPU is, as long as it performs and is compatible with their code.

 

As the manufacturer, it becomes harder to switch CPU brands in our kit. So many things come into play that switching becomes both complex and expensive. Even simple things like getting suppliers approved is challenging. It leads to going the easy route and to some extent stifles innovation.

[mon1ka]

17 hours ago, Freakwise said:

Silicon getting better and now we have this, what's next?, Pcb shortage?

don't you dare jinx us.

 

memes aside, i'm worried it could happen but i'm not going to pass judgement until numbers are revealed.

[Icarus_Radio]

With regard to GPU, I don't buy the so-called "GPU shortage" bullshit. If you take a look at NVIDIA's own report, they earned much more than last year. RTX 30 series has a lower price than its predecessor, and they still earn so much more, which means they produce much more GPUs. How come there is a "GPU-shortage" when the supply is much higher than last year? The only reason is the demand grows at a faster rate, but everyone knows this growth is not normal and will decline at some point.

 

NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for First Quarter Fiscal 2022

[suicidalfranco]

On 7/25/2021 at 9:58 AM, Master Disaster said:

the entire industry is facing a shortage as demand hugely outstrips supply.

Damn miners <shake fist at the sky>

[porina]

15 hours ago, CerealExperimentsLain said:

My employer has had huge issues in getting hardware in a timely fashion from Dell as we build out.  Stuff is late or they can only get us 5 units at a time, ect.  We got the money but they lack the supply as our data center expands.  Been an issue since late 2020.

Interesting reading this and other comments. I wonder if it is due in part to what exactly the product is, since we are often generalising when saying "server". Maybe some specific areas are more in constraint than others.

 

15 hours ago, CerealExperimentsLain said:

If new hardware takes long enough to get, every PC gamer becomes a retro PC Gamer!  Never too late to run a nice source port of Doom (1993) or Quake (1996), they'll run great on anything!

Fortunately I think on the CPU side it matters much less for gamers. Let's be realistic, for a great gaming system (not necessarily top end) pretty much any 6-core CPU since Coffee Lake or Zen 2 would perform great, and you could push it a bit older on both sides if you contain expectations.

 

GPUs remain a problem for now but it does seem to be getting better with more GPUs appearing more often at less inflated pricing. I do wonder if DLSS/FSR would help take some pressure off the mid range PC gamer going forwards, say around x60 to x70 level. Where you still want a great experience, but are not expecting the absolute best quality.

 

1 hour ago, Sampsy said:

Their data centre revenue fell by 9% while the cloud computing industry is still quickly growing. They had an awful quarter.

While I'm sure they would like to do better, it is perhaps more useful to not over focus on one selective number and look at the wider picture. In a quick look 9% drop is the YoY change for their Data Center Group. Broken down, this is a 20% drop in cloud, 6% drop in comms, 6% increase in enterprise. Question then is, what is happening in cloud? Are people buying more AMD? I'm sure AMD are selling everything they can make, but is that the whole story? How many are moving to ARM servers? Or maybe it is a case of Intel transitioning to Ice Lake, so the tail end of the previous generation might not be the most desirable. Also as they are YoY results, was the previous year's comparison point unusual in any way? A longer term trend might be more insightful in taking out unexpected transitions, especially given the worldwide events of the last year and half or thereabouts. I don't have the answer to any of that, but they are things to consider.

[Loote]

It is weird to talk about WCCF in the OP so much, there were other sites posting the same information, perhaps later, but I don't like their flexing.

This means supply is not going to grow for now, but the big question is at where does the demand stand. The lower end GPUs can help that part of the market too using less substrate/happy user.

[Kisai]

On 7/25/2021 at 11:24 AM, CerealExperimentsLain said:

My employer has had huge issues in getting hardware in a timely fashion from Dell as we build out.  Stuff is late or they can only get us 5 units at a time, ect.  We got the money but they lack the supply as our data center expands.  Been an issue since late 2020.

That is what we were having with as well. The client I’m at right now is still using stuff the bought 6 years ago.

[FrodoX570]

I am just glad I have what I have, it is not the best, but a lot faster than the majority.