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Is Youtuber "Moore's Law Is Dead" legit?

Shoopman
By Shoopman
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Randomly found this guys channel a few days ago. He claims to know a bunch of industry insiders and supposedly has a ton of info that he "can't talk about". But he only has 70K subs so I'm a little suspicious. Does anyone know if this guy is for real?

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this user primarily reports on rumors and you'll find a lot of sensationalism in his content, not really facts.

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Just to point out Moore's Law was only a light observation by Moore. The fact that it is referred to as a law is funny, even Moore admitted as much but yet it is the accept industry standard. There was going to be an end to it regardless anyhow.

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58 minutes ago, jaslion said:

Anyone can claim they have inside sources. Mainly just a channel riding the hypetrain of whatever is coming up and just reporting anything that gets views.

now here I'm going to disagree. he doesn't ride on hypetrains and does appear to have inside sources .

 

He's got a better track record than Adored TV I prefer him

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Well he makes a living of his rumors and youtube channel so I guess he can´t be too wrong.

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On 9/3/2020 at 12:25 PM, kpluck said:

Just go to his channel and look at his older videos. See if the things he said in the past are accurate.

 

-kp

I am currently in the process of doing just that. Here is a roundup of the things he got right and wrong about Ampere in this video:

Green = Turned out to be true.

Yellow = Not confirmed true or false yet.

Red = Things that he got wrong.

 

 

image.thumb.png.d4a60ed17020512fafc3fd591f6e8d66.png

 

The few things he got right are not exactly rocket science to predict either.

  • New architecture? Not hard to guess.
  • Meant for both HPC and Gaming? No shit. I am fairly sure Nvidia had even announced the HPC version or at least announced a date for a press conference about it. 
  • NVENC will do 8K 60 FPS? It could already do 8K 30 FPS on Turing. So guessing that it could do 30 more FPS was not exactly wild speculation.
  • CUDA11 had already been referenced in source code for official Nvidia applications, so that was not exactly hard to guess either.
  • Some gaming cards before the end of the year was not a wild bet to make either.

 

 

Overall, I'd say his channel is about as reliable as WCCFTech and I don't believe for a second that he actually has some "insider sources". My guess is that he got some email from a random email adress from someone claiming they worked at Nvidia, and starved for content he just believed it without any evidence.

That's why he is stroking his ego so much in the beginning of the video. You can tell that he is sooo proud to have gotten this random email and he desperately wants it to be true and encourage others to send him "leaks".

 

 

  

On 9/3/2020 at 10:24 PM, spartaman64 said:

he apparently got RTX IO right

He didn't. He said Nvidia would launch a feature called NVCache which would let the GPU use RAM and/or SSD storage as VRAM.

Firstly it's the wrong name, but more importantly, RTX IO does not use SSD storage or RAM as VRAM. It's a way for the GPU to read data into the VRAM without having to go through the processor. Those are two very different things.

"Moore's law is dead" said that the GPU could directly process data on storage without having to read it into the VRAM buffer.

What RTX IO does is allow the GPU to read data into the VRAM buffer faster.

 

  

On 9/2/2020 at 10:18 PM, GDRRiley said:

now here I'm going to disagree. he doesn't ride on hypetrains and does appear to have inside sources .

 

He's got a better track record than Adored TV I prefer him

Even a drunk guy throwing darts at WCCFTech articles inside a completely dark room can get more accurate results than AdoredTV and Moore's Law is Dead combined.

Both of them are the epitome of "I will read a bunch of rumors, claim them as my own and say I have insider sources, or just make shit up because then I get lots of clicks on my videos".

I think Moore's Law is Dead will do one of these three things:

1) Hype up how he got some stuff right and then don't adress all the things he got wrong.

2) Come up with excuses for why he wasn't more right than he was, but still highlight how he got some stuff right.

3) Ignore it and pretend like he is a reliable leaker, just like he has done before.

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@LAwLz

Good post. I have not put that much thought into it. I watched him when I was bored but I have to think about it in the future.

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1 hour ago, LAwLz said:

I am currently in the process of doing just that. Here is a roundup of the things he got right and wrong about Ampere in this video

I'd say this go look at how many AIBs got bad info. I don't expect anyone to get 100% and given he's stated hes got AIBs, Game/program devs

 

3080 bus and memory is right

DLSS 3.0 is coming

NV cache has been renamed

there is a slight vram upgrade

Frequency is roughly right

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12 minutes ago, Teddy07 said:

@LAwLz

Good post. I have not put that much thought into it. I watched him when I was bored but I have to think about it in the future.

I’d put him at roughly a 50/50 for Nvida. As for AMD or intel their launches are later this year 

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Eh, same type of shit as ClickdoredTV.

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17 minutes ago, GDRRiley said:

I'd say this go look at how many AIBs got bad info. I don't expect anyone to get 100% and given he's stated hes got AIBs, Game/program devs

I don't buy that for a second. Also, if you can't trust his sources then you can't trust him. Fact of the matter is that he gets more stuff wrong than he gets right. I can make better "leaks" than him and I have 0 insider sources. Therefore, his channel is bad and quoting him is about as reliable as guessing or quoting WCCFTech.

 

17 minutes ago, GDRRiley said:

3080 bus and memory is right

Yes that's why I put that in green.

 

17 minutes ago, GDRRiley said:

DLSS 3.0 is coming

We don't know that, and if we count that as getting something right then I might as well say "my insider source tells me that DLSS 4.0 will be released, sometime" and then I can claim to be a reliable leaker. 

 

 

17 minutes ago, GDRRiley said:

NV cache has been renamed

No it hasn't. I explained why NVCache is not the same as RTX IO in my post. 

 

17 minutes ago, GDRRiley said:

there is a slight vram upgrade

Now you're mentioning VRAM again, one of the only things he got kinda right, and which I admitted he got right.

But if you only need to be "kinda" right in order to count as being accurate then I would also be able to be a "reliable leaker". Fact of the matter is that if you do have insider information then you should be able to get things 100% right. Things like memory is not some afterthought to Nvidia which they can change whenever they feel like it. They didn't just wake up a few months before the announcement and thought "we'll upgrade the VRAM slightly". They had that planned for a long time and if someone claiming to have insider sources couldn't get that correct, then chances are he was just guessing.

 

17 minutes ago, GDRRiley said:

Frequency is roughly right

Same as above. 

Also, 1.71GHz to 1.9GHz is not "roughly right".

Again, if you can have an error margin of like 20% then even I can be a reliable leaker.

 

 

Stop making excuses for why he got so many things wrong. He is just someone who regurgitates rumors and then lies about having an insider source.

Again, if we are so lenient on what can be considered "accurate" then I can be just as reliable of a source as he is, despite me not having any insider info whatsoever.

 

 

  

5 minutes ago, GDRRiley said:

I’d put him at roughly a 50/50 for Nvida. As for AMD or intel their launches are later this year 

His track record is worse than 50%, and that's if we are being nice. 

Again, I am slowly going through his videos and his track record is awful.

Here are some more quotes from me about his videos:

Quote

I haven't actually watched much of this guy but holy crap he sure likes to use the cold reading technique of "shotgunning". Just throw out a bunch of guesses and then some of them will be right and you can ignore all the wrong ones.

I have only watched 1,5 videos as of writing this but he has already said:

  • Ampere will be 10nm.
  • Ampere was planned to be built using Samsung 7nm but they might have changed their minds.
  • Nvidia will use 7nm TSMC for their top cards.
  • Nvidia will make the majority of their cards on Samsung 10nm but market them as 8nm.

So he has already made 4 different claims in less than 2 videos. Of course some of them will be correct.

 

When you make 4 different claims then you're very likely to get one of them correct. That's why I think we should introduce a scoring system where "leakers" gets -3 points every time they get something wrong, and +1 point every time they get something right.

So far, Moore's Law is Dead has a "reliability score" of -59 points just from that video alone. His other videos doesn't seem to be that much better, as you can see in the quote above.

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He's as legit as AdoredTV which means no lol 

 

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3 hours ago, LAwLz said:

snip

 

 

 

maybe he misunderstood his source but its too similar for it to be completely a random guess and he said if he ignored the AIB partners he would have been 90% right. one of them did think the top end card will have half the stream processors so maybe they were given false information by nvidia at first and the same one though they are going to be 7nm also

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1 hour ago, spartaman64 said:

maybe he misunderstood his source but its too similar for it to be completely a random guess

Why are you defending him?

1) He got the name wrong.

2) He got every technical detail regarding the thing wrong.

 

He either has unreliable sources (which makes him unreliable) or he is technically incompetent (which again makes him unreliable).

 

 

 

1 hour ago, spartaman64 said:

and he said if he ignored the AIB partners he would have been 90% right.

That's such a load of bullshit it's unbelievable anyone even buys that.

1) He is in charge of vetting his sources. To me, the viewer, it does not matter who told him what. If he says something, it's his reputation on the line. If he chooses to tell his audience about something he heard from his "insider sources" and that turns out to be false, then he is the one responsible for choosing to publish that info. It's his responsibility to vet that information he choose to publish is legitimate.

2) In his video he said that he was confident in his sources because they were reliable and he had heard the same things from multiple sources.

3) It's not hard to get 90% accuracy if you come up with excuses for why some things you have "leaked" shouldn't count. Like I said earlier, in the span of 2 videos he literally mentioned 4 different manufacturing nodes being used for Ampere. Would you say he has 100% accuracy when 3/4 of his predictions are wrong because "we should only count the 1/4 of his predictions that were from this source"? Come on. 

4) We have 0 evidence of this being true. "Oh yeah trust me guys, if I had ignored one of my sources then I would have been 90% correct so therefore I am a reliable source!". 

 

The guy is clearly a massive liar who will say anything to save his reputation, since his entire channel is based on how accurate his "leaks" are. 

But no matter how you twist and turn this, he is finally exposed for the hack fraud he really is. No matter how he or his fans twists and turns this, the fact and there in clear text. He got a ton of things wrong despite him claiming the information was accurate and reliable. This means that his track record right now is shite. You can not trust anything he says because even if you personally buy into his bullshit persona of him being a reliable leaker (and not just someone who deliberately makes shit up for views) the fact remains that what he has said were reliable leaks in the passt turned out to be false.

 

 

He is one of these three things:

1) Technically incompetent to the point where he can not accurately retell information he has been given. Although, it seems weird that he would be so incompetent that he doesn't understand what the words "8704 CUDA cores" mean.

2) He is gullible and gets fooled by people pretending to work for different companies and instead of being critical of anonymous emails he gets in his inbox, he just shits out a video containing that info.

3) He is a liar who deliberately makes shit up to try and get views.

 

Pick your poison. Regardless of what you pick, the guy don't deserve any views.

 

 

1 hour ago, spartaman64 said:

one of them did think the top end card will have half the stream processors so maybe they were given false information by nvidia at first and the same one though they are going to be 7nm also

Yeah right, blame Nvidia. "It's not my fault I got almost everything wrong about the products I 'leaked'. It must be the manufacturer who are deliberately trying to sabotage me".

 

Damn, being a "leaker" must be great. No matter what happens you are never responsible and never wrong.

Was one of your predictions correct? Then you're great and totally reliable!

Was one of your predictions slightly wrong? Meh, close enough! I'll count that as me being correct!

Was one of your predictions completely wrong? Just blame it on the manufacturer deliberately sabotaging for you. People should totally keep watching you and giving you money because you're still reliable even if you get everything you say wrong. It's not your fault, right?

 

 

 

I talked about this in a status update before. I have some insider contacts at networking manufacturers like Cisco and Fortigate. I could have leaked stuff from them if I wanted. Those leaks would not have been "slightly correct" or "almost right". They would have been 100% correct. If you actually have insider information then you don't get things "almost right". You get them 100% right. Stuff like GPUs don't have their designs changed on a whim. The info that circulates inside the company isn't inaccurate. That's just an excuse "leakers" come up with when they have made incorrect GUESSES or have been tricked by some troll pretending to be an employee at some company.

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I bet his insider info is from him he just signed an NDA

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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Posted
10 minutes ago, BuckGup said:

I bet his insider info is from him he just signed an NDA

If it was then his info would at least be half-decent and accurate.

As it stands right now I'd say he is just a rumor channel which lies about having "insider info". He's the Youtube equivalence of WCCFTech.

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16 minutes ago, LAwLz said:

If it was then his info would at least be half-decent and accurate.

Unless he's trying to scramble it as knowing that specific info would be identifying. But more likely he's full of shit lol

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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̌̅̒̾̈́̆͌̌̾̎̽̐̅̏́̈̔͛̀̋̃͊̒̓͗͒̑͒̃͂̌̄̇̑̇͛̆̾͛̒̇̍̒̓̀̈́̄̐͂̍͊͗̎̔͌͛̂̏̉̊̎͗͊͒̂̈̽̊́̔̊̃͑̈́̑̌̋̓̅̔́́͒̄̈́̈̂͐̈̅̈̓͌̓͊́̆͌̉͐̊̉͛̓̏̓̅̈́͂̉̒̇̉̆̀̍̄̇͆͛̏̉̑̃̓͂́͋̃̆̒͋̓͊̄́̓̕̕̕̚͘͘͘̚̕̚͘̕̕͜͜͝͝͝͠͝͝͝͝͠ͅS̷̢̨̧̢̡̨̢̨̢̨̧̧̨̧͚̱̪͇̱̮̪̮̦̝͖̜͙̘̪̘̟̱͇͎̻̪͚̩͍̠̹̮͚̦̝̤͖̙͔͚̙̺̩̥̻͈̺̦͕͈̹̳̖͓̜͚̜̭͉͇͖̟͔͕̹̯̬͍̱̫̮͓̙͇̗̙̼͚̪͇̦̗̜̼̠͈̩̠͉͉̘̱̯̪̟͕̘͖̝͇̼͕̳̻̜͖̜͇̣̠̹̬̗̝͓̖͚̺̫͛̉̅̐̕͘͜͜͜͜ͅͅͅ.̶̨̢̢̨̢̨̢̛̻͙̜̼̮̝̙̣̘̗̪̜̬̳̫̙̮̣̹̥̲̥͇͈̮̟͉̰̮̪̲̗̳̰̫̙͍̦̘̠̗̥̮̹̤̼̼̩͕͉͕͇͙̯̫̩̦̟̦̹͈͔̱̝͈̤͓̻̟̮̱͖̟̹̝͉̰͊̓̏̇͂̅̀̌͑̿͆̿̿͗̽̌̈́̉̂̀̒̊̿͆̃̄͑͆̃̇͒̀͐̍̅̃̍̈́̃̕͘͜͜͝͠͠z̴̢̢̡̧̢̢̧̢̨̡̨̛̛̛̛̛̛̛̛̲͚̠̜̮̠̜̞̤̺͈̘͍̻̫͖̣̥̗̙̳͓͙̫̫͖͍͇̬̲̳̭̘̮̤̬̖̼͎̬̯̼̮͔̭̠͎͓̼̖̟͈͓̦̩̦̳̙̮̗̮̩͙͓̮̰̜͎̺̞̝̪͎̯̜͈͇̪̙͎̩͖̭̟͎̲̩͔͓͈͌́̿͐̍̓͗͑̒̈́̎͂̋͂̀͂̑͂͊͆̍͛̄̃͌͗̌́̈̊́́̅͗̉͛͌͋̂̋̇̅̔̇͊͑͆̐̇͊͋̄̈́͆̍̋̏͑̓̈́̏̀͒̂̔̄̅̇̌̀̈́̿̽̋͐̾̆͆͆̈̌̿̈́̎͌̊̓̒͐̾̇̈́̍͛̅͌̽́̏͆̉́̉̓̅́͂͛̄̆͌̈́̇͐̒̿̾͌͊͗̀͑̃̊̓̈̈́̊͒̒̏̿́͑̄̑͋̀̽̀̔̀̎̄͑̌̔́̉̐͛̓̐̅́̒̎̈͆̀̍̾̀͂̄̈́̈́̈́̑̏̈́̐̽̐́̏̂̐̔̓̉̈́͂̕̚̕͘͘̚͘̚̕̚̚̚͘̕̕̕͜͜͝͠͠͝͝͝͝͠͝͝͝͠͝͝͝͝͝͝ͅͅͅī̸̧̧̧̡̨̨̢̨̛̛̘͓̼̰̰̮̗̰͚̙̥̣͍̦̺͈̣̻͇̱͔̰͈͓͖͈̻̲̫̪̲͈̜̲̬̖̻̰̦̰͙̤̘̝̦̟͈̭̱̮̠͍̖̲͉̫͔͖͔͈̻̖̝͎̖͕͔̣͈̤̗̱̀̅̃̈́͌̿̏͋̊̇̂̀̀̒̉̄̈́͋͌̽́̈́̓̑̈̀̍͗͜͜͠͠ͅp̴̢̢̧̨̡̡̨̢̨̢̢̢̨̡̛̛͕̩͕̟̫̝͈̖̟̣̲̖̭̙͇̟̗͖͎̹͇̘̰̗̝̹̤̺͉͎̙̝̟͙͚̦͚͖̜̫̰͖̼̤̥̤̹̖͉͚̺̥̮̮̫͖͍̼̰̭̤̲͔̩̯̣͖̻͇̞̳̬͉̣̖̥̣͓̤͔̪̙͎̰̬͚̣̭̞̬͎̼͉͓̮͙͕̗̦̞̥̮̘̻͎̭̼͚͎͈͇̥̗͖̫̮̤̦͙̭͎̝͖̣̰̱̩͎̩͎̘͇̟̠̱̬͈̗͍̦̘̱̰̤̱̘̫̫̮̥͕͉̥̜̯͖̖͍̮̼̲͓̤̮͈̤͓̭̝̟̲̲̳̟̠͉̙̻͕͙̞͔̖͈̱̞͓͔̬̮͎̙̭͎̩̟̖͚̆͐̅͆̿͐̄̓̀̇̂̊̃̂̄̊̀͐̍̌̅͌̆͊̆̓́̄́̃̆͗͊́̓̀͑͐̐̇͐̍́̓̈́̓̑̈̈́̽͂́̑͒͐͋̊͊̇̇̆̑̃̈́̎͛̎̓͊͛̐̾́̀͌̐̈́͛̃̂̈̿̽̇̋̍͒̍͗̈͘̚̚͘̚͘͘͜͜͜͜͜͜͠͠͝͝ͅͅͅ☻♥■∞{╚mYÄÜXτ╕○\╚Θº£¥ΘBM@Q05♠{{↨↨▬§¶‼↕◄►☼1♦  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Posted
13 minutes ago, BuckGup said:

Unless he's trying to scramble it as knowing that specific info would be identifying.

Maybe, but when you get stuff so incredibly wrong (for example he said the 3080 would have 3840 CUDA cores when it in reality has 8704) then I think you've scrambled the info a bit too much.

 

15 minutes ago, BuckGup said:

But more likely he's full of shit lol

I think that's the most reasonable explanation.

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Posted
5 hours ago, LAwLz said:

 

go back and look at your chart you got things repeating in red and green.

 

Good luck, Have fun, Build PC, and have a last gen console for use once a year. I should answer most of the time between 9 to 3 PST

NightHawk 3.0: R7 5700x @, B550A vision D, H105, 2x32gb Oloy 3600, Sapphire RX 6700XT  Nitro+, Corsair RM750X, 500 gb 850 evo, 2tb rocket and 5tb Toshiba x300, 2x 6TB WD Black W10 all in a 750D airflow.
GF PC: (nighthawk 2.0): R7 2700x, B450m vision D, 4x8gb Geli 2933, Strix GTX970, CX650M RGB, Obsidian 350D

Skunkworks: R5 3500U, 16gb, 500gb Adata XPG 6000 lite, Vega 8. HP probook G455R G6 Ubuntu 20. LTS

Condor (MC server): 6600K, z170m plus, 16gb corsair vengeance LPX, samsung 750 evo, EVGA BR 450.

Spirt  (NAS) ASUS Z9PR-D12, 2x E5 2620V2, 8x4gb, 24 3tb HDD. F80 800gb cache, trueNAS, 2x12disk raid Z3 stripped

PSU Tier List      Motherboard Tier List     SSD Tier List     How to get PC parts cheap    HP probook 445R G6 review

 

"Stupidity is like trying to find a limit of a constant. You are never truly smart in something, just less stupid."

Camera Gear: X-S10, 16-80 F4, 60D, 24-105 F4, 50mm F1.4, Helios44-m, 2 Cos-11D lavs

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Posted
27 minutes ago, GDRRiley said:

go back and look at your chart you got things repeating in red and green.

Got any examples?

He repeats himself quite a bit in the video so it's very likely that I have written things down multiple times.

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1 minute ago, LAwLz said:

Got any examples?

He repeats himself quite a bit in the video so it's very likely that I have written things down multiple times.

3080, if you can't keep it straight you need a better chart

Good luck, Have fun, Build PC, and have a last gen console for use once a year. I should answer most of the time between 9 to 3 PST

NightHawk 3.0: R7 5700x @, B550A vision D, H105, 2x32gb Oloy 3600, Sapphire RX 6700XT  Nitro+, Corsair RM750X, 500 gb 850 evo, 2tb rocket and 5tb Toshiba x300, 2x 6TB WD Black W10 all in a 750D airflow.
GF PC: (nighthawk 2.0): R7 2700x, B450m vision D, 4x8gb Geli 2933, Strix GTX970, CX650M RGB, Obsidian 350D

Skunkworks: R5 3500U, 16gb, 500gb Adata XPG 6000 lite, Vega 8. HP probook G455R G6 Ubuntu 20. LTS

Condor (MC server): 6600K, z170m plus, 16gb corsair vengeance LPX, samsung 750 evo, EVGA BR 450.

Spirt  (NAS) ASUS Z9PR-D12, 2x E5 2620V2, 8x4gb, 24 3tb HDD. F80 800gb cache, trueNAS, 2x12disk raid Z3 stripped

PSU Tier List      Motherboard Tier List     SSD Tier List     How to get PC parts cheap    HP probook 445R G6 review

 

"Stupidity is like trying to find a limit of a constant. You are never truly smart in something, just less stupid."

Camera Gear: X-S10, 16-80 F4, 60D, 24-105 F4, 50mm F1.4, Helios44-m, 2 Cos-11D lavs

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