COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING

[captain_to_fire]

18 minutes ago, RorzNZ said:

There’s only major pathologies when whole spike protein or more so for whole virus vaccines - it is the NP protein that is responsible, in the Ad5 vaccine the RBD of the S protein is used, which reduces the pathologies significantly. Proper adjuvant is also necessary, I think they are stimulating TLR4,  but TLR3,7/8 and 9 are ideal targets.

I’m looking forward to the results of the mRNA-1273 from Moderna as well as the DNA plasmid vaccine named INO-4800. 

[mr moose]

On 5/4/2020 at 5:50 AM, Rakanoth said:

"Coronavirus cases fall in Japan despite lack of mandatory social distancing": https://thehill.com/policy/international/494994-coronavirus-cases-fall-in-japan-despite-lack-of-mandatory-social

Spoiler

 

I know this article is 5 days old, but take a look at their number of active cases: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/. It's now consistently falling! And that's in a country which has some of the densest cities on Earth.

 

"Treat the patient, not the virus: how the shutdown morphed from a temporary, emergency response into a long-lasting bridge to an “all-clear” Hollywood ending": https://medium.com/@davidgoldhill/treat-the-patient-not-the-virus-f8dcd87231e7

 

God it's so true. We all jumped into this without considering second order effects of the lockdowns. I can't even figure out what the hell we are trying to accomplish anymore. "Two weeks to bend the curve" has turned into two months, with some indefinite lockdowns in place (either declared as indefinite or with constant kicking the can down the road). It is fucking outrageous to me that people jumped on board with this without a second thought, and the chant of the hive mind continues to be "two more weeks."

 

Those pushing lockdowns absolutely come from a place of privilege, and even if they have lost work, we bumped up unemployment to keep the middle class quiet. Everyone signed on with their "save grandma" and "save the healthcare workers" virtue signaling while completely ignoring the complete fallout from unaddeessed health needs, supply chain interruptions (particularly food), people with MH/substance use issues, people facing domestic violence, among others. They also seem to conveniently ignore the fact that social isolation itself is extremely detrimental to health outcomes.

 

I am guessing that people will stay complacent as long as stated continue to funnel them hush money and it doesn't directly affect them. This will go on as long as we allow it.

 

This is what I have to remind everyone of every time we discuss this virus: the virus isn't the big risk here. What we are doing in response is the risk.

 

The response is a massive, unethical, social experiment. We are guinea pigs on an uncharted "treatment" path. Society is the experimental patient.

 

What's really frustrating to me right now is, based on the many coronovirus discussions that I have witnessed or participated in, the entire debate has become political even though I feel like it never needed to be. I've always considered myself fairly liberal, or at least left of center, but from the start of this lockdown I had a real bad gut feeling about the long term economic impacts.

 

However, it seems you can't have any meaningful discourse on the main subreddits. If you're against the lockdown, you're immediately lumped in as an "idiot conservative." I guess I see why, as it's the more conservative states that are opening restrictions early. So what does this mean, I'm conservative now? I guess on this issue I am? But really I don't see how it needed to be a liberal vs conservative thing in the first place.

 

I actually still haven't understood why in most Western countries, lockdown was seen as a left/progressive thing while the opposite was seen as right-wing/conservative. Even in the UK where the government is conservative, much of the left has been clamouring for an even more strict lockdown. Funnily enough I read that in Sweden is the opposite - those questioning the government's strategy and demanding lockdown are mostly on the right.

 

The initial lockdown in March may have been justified for a few weeks. We honestly didn’t know if this thing was like smallpox or the plague, where it would kill 1/3 or the population.

 

It was apparent by late March, though - and I follow numerous bloggers who were doing the math and showing the science, and their blogs from then are still up and ignored - that we had overreacted, and by early April there was absolutely nothing to wait for except small incremental fatality rate improvements as we learned which meds were helpful, which populations were at risk, how infectious it was, etc.

 

Meanwhile, you can already see the media and their followers - on both sides- creating their own pseudo-history where they cherry pick various reports and timelines to push their narrative of it’s all Trumps fault or China is to blame 100%, etc.

 

 

 

The only people creating a "pseudo-history" are those who made absolute claims and were wrong (mostly politicians and media).  The rest of the scientific fraternity and those working within their advice haven't need to look back to justify anything. As amusing as trump is to the rest of the world, we don't really give a shit what he says or where the virus came from,  most countries have just put their head down to deal with it as best they can. 

 

 

EDIT: and also it's not true at all,  no government jumped into this not knowing the effects.  They are very well aware of the costs, In fact if you look back at the press releases from every country there is not one that wasn't hesitant solely because they knew how much financial damage it was going to do.   I don;t know  a single government that's wants to damages it's own economy and put so many people out of work on a whim.  I know they can be hard to understand at times but that's just crazy to assume. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by LogicalDrm
Added spoiler

[Bombastinator]

26 minutes ago, NZgamer said:

Adding onto my thing about those bafoons protesting their freedom during a worldwide pandemic, Elon Musk has joined in with them. The sooner you lot stay home the sooner the virus is defeated the sooner you get to come out again. Lost a ton of respect for him. 

Apparently the last appearance by the guy was pretty messed up from a coherence standpoint.  
I’m not seeing a lot of reporting in it myself.

 

Tesla committed to designing ventilators that appear to not be needed as much as was feared because social distancing worked better than expected and they may have gotten burned. 
part of the issue is a lot of different types of medical devices Have absurdly inflated costs in the US.  The only one I’m even slightly familiar with is sonograms where the devices cost tens of thousands in the US, but devices with only slightly reduced capacity are offered for hundreds in different places.  Apparently MRI machines may have somewhat similar issues.  I don’t know much about either though.  I may be very much a mushroom person on this one.

I’m remembering various numbers for different ventilators and they seem to vary quite wildly, 14k, 7k, $400.  I don’t know what’s up with that one either, but if he got talked into building devices that originally cost 14k for 7k, and then found out the number was really $400 I could see a conniption following.

The company seems to be doing OK anyway though.   Again though, mushroom person here.

[atxcyclist]

5 hours ago, NZgamer said:

Adding onto my thing about those bafoons protesting their freedom during a worldwide pandemic, Elon Musk has joined in with them. The sooner you lot stay home the sooner the virus is defeated the sooner you get to come out again. Lost a ton of respect for him. 

People have been home, some for months. Businesses are not going to be able to stay closed for a year waiting for a vaccine, and staying home isn't a possibility for people that need income to put food on their table either. People like you are saying millions of those out of work should unavoidably starve, in order to protect some people from getting a virus that everyone can wear protective equipment and wash their hands to avoid, that's pretty selfish.

 

There will be a time when your neighbors get tired of starving to death to appease people like you, and they will be going back to work.

[Bombastinator]

20 minutes ago, atxcyclist said:

People have been home, some for months. Businesses are not going to be able to stay closed for a year waiting for a vaccine, and staying home isn't a possibility for people that need income to put food on their table either. People like you are saying millions of those out of work should unavoidably starve, in order to protect some people from getting a virus that everyone can wear protective equipment and wash their hands to avoid, that's pretty selfish.

 

There will be a time when your neighbors get tired of starving to death to appease people like you, and they will be going back to work.

Nope.  Not at all.  Seems everyone is overplaying the attitude of people they disagree with when they’re saying mostly the same thing.  Everyone wants to use the term covidiot.  
 

covidiots: 

A: people who want to pretend the virus is not serious and act like nothing is going on.

B: people who think the entire country should stay locked up for 18 months

C; people who think that A or B even happen except in very small numbers.

 

 

Heres the deal:  the lockdown worked better than expected.  So well that a few things like mass emergency manufacturing of ventilators turned out to not be needed. (so far) The result of this is with one (1) more month of lockdown the thing oils actually be killed and we’d be done instead of limping along for another 6-10 months.  These are the people being named as B by C quite often.  

There is a group of people, and it’s a really large one, that do not want to go another month at all.  It’s not can’t exactly but often pretty close.  the consequences vary and for some can be very dire.  These people want to follow the original plan from before we got our first and so far only break and not double down on the virus and kill it, but instead behave as if less progress were made and go into controlled modified workflow.  This means it will take more like another 6-10 months if we get a bit lucky again, (if we don’t, even more maybe) instead of 1 to be actually free of this thing.  If there isn’t another month possible there isn’t another month possible though.

 

The people who are getting another 6-10 month solitary confinement sentence are super pissed off.  People don’t like spending 6 months in prison for the convenience of others.  

 

The People who are out of work are pissed off because they’re out of resources and they don’t HAVE another month without taking the kind of losses they may (or may not, it varies) be able to come back from.

 

So everyone is pissed and everyone exaggerating the stance of the other.

 

Meanwhile there is a third and very small group who doesn’t care what happens to who and are organizing protests by both groups not because they care about what is happening but because they want to avoid embarrassment for political leadership and are more than willing to throw the lives of the first two groups under the wheels to do it.  “Coronassholes” perhaps?

[lewdicrous]

This is interesting, never thought that wastewater testing could be used for coronavirus as well.

Quote

A Biobot Analytics’ check of bacteria taken from sewers indicated approximately 15 times the published rate of confirmed, positive coronavirus tests in the county at that time, officials said.

“The true advantage of wastewater testing is that a whole population’s samples can be taken at the same time,” said New Castle County Public Works Stormwater and Environmental Program Manager Mike Harris, who initiated contact with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology startup.

Biobot said methodology was validated with the samples collected in Massachusetts when its laboratory technique was confirmed to be selectively detecting SARS-CoV-2 The work has been submitted for peer review publication.

Several other research groups have published similar findings in the Netherlands, Australia and Montana, according to Biobot.

https://delawarestatenews.net/coronavirus/preliminary-wastewater-testing-shows-higher-rate-of-coronavirus-in-new-castle-county-than-reported/

[Commodus]

3 hours ago, Bombastinator said:

Meanwhile there is a third and very small group who doesn’t care what happens to who and are organizing protests by both groups not because they care about what is happening but because they want to avoid embarrassment for political leadership and are more than willing to throw the lives of the first two groups under the wheels to do it.  “Coronassholes” perhaps?

Seems like most of those protests are for one side... there's definitely astroturfing going on, though.

[Bombastinator]

11 minutes ago, lewdicrous said:

This is interesting, never thought that wastewater testing could be used for coronavirus as well.

https://delawarestatenews.net/coronavirus/preliminary-wastewater-testing-shows-higher-rate-of-coronavirus-in-new-castle-county-than-reported/

There’s an eco thriller called “zodiac” that goes into techniques used to catch corporate ugliness.

 

 

[Deli]

3 hours ago, atxcyclist said:

People have been home, some for months. Businesses are not going to be able to stay closed for a year waiting for a vaccine, and staying home isn't a possibility for people that need income to put food on their table either. People like you are saying millions of those out of work should unavoidably starve, in order to protect some people from getting a virus that everyone can wear protective equipment and wash their hands to avoid, that's pretty selfish.

 

There will be a time when your neighbors get tired of starving to death to appease people like you, and they will be going back to work.

White House's own guidance, 14 days continuous downward trend, and the R0 < 1. I don't know any one says wait until there is vaccine to reopen the economy. Some states have reached the point they can reopen, while many don't.

[atxcyclist]

31 minutes ago, NZgamer said:

My country's been in lockdown for the past few weeks and nobody "starved to death". Ever heard of working from home? The (my countries) Government's giving money to business's to keep them alive during the lockdown. Yesterday we had no case numbers because most people followed the lockdown rules and in a few months we might be opening the border to Australia again.

 

 

We're talking many months here or a year before there's a suitable vaccine, not weeks. I've already been stuck at home over two months between social distancing and shelter in place. Not all jobs are able to be done from home, so that's not really good enough in the long term.

[atxcyclist]

26 minutes ago, Deli said:

White House's own guidance, 14 days continuous downward trend, and the R0 < 1. I don't know any one says wait until there is vaccine to reopen the economy. Some states have reached the point they can reopen, while many don't.

No states have reached a point where they can fully re-open, because many businesses and individuals won't be satisfied until there's a vaccine. Tons of small businesses are closing here left and right currently, and many more will do so in the coming months as this goes on. Mine will likely do so eventually, since no one is going to spend money for our services for a long time after this.

 

As more tests are available the number of reported cases is going to go up, because of the number of asymptomatic people walking around, so that point is months and months away. People will go broke and lose the places they live, because there's not enough money for our economy to do nothing and produce nothing, while also having tens of millions of people out of work and supported on the government dole. 

[Bombastinator]

26 minutes ago, atxcyclist said:

No states have reached a point where they can fully re-open, because many businesses and individuals won't be satisfied until there's a vaccine. Tons of small businesses are closing here left and right currently, and many more will do so in the coming months as this goes on. Mine will likely do so eventually, since no one is going to spend money for our services for a long time after this.

 

As more tests are available the number of reported cases is going to go up, because of the number of asymptomatic people walking around, so that point is months and months away. People will go broke and lose the places they live, because there's not enough money for our economy to do nothing and produce nothing, while also having tens of millions of people out of work and supported on the government dole. 

It’s not “till there’s a vaccine”.  It’s’ “till there’s something, anything at all, that can keep the r number below 1”.  
 

There’s several things that could do that.  There were a bunch more.  All of em have so far failed.  A vaccine is not the only one.  It just that at the moment it’s THE only thing right now that appears to have even a decent chance of likely working.  A good treatment, (remdesovir seems to help but not enough) a good reliable and widely available test, heck even evidence of decent herd immunity might do it.  The problem is there isn’t any evidence that there even IS any of that at all.  The ONLY thing that is on tap atm is a vaccine and that’s not even a sure thing.  There’s at least six bullets in the chamber for that one and people are thinking there’s a good chance that at least one of them will fire though.  
 

There are so far two count them 2 things that work with a damn against covid.  Social distancing and MAYBE a vaccine.  So less than two.  1.5 maybe, with .2 for remdesovir if it can be ramped up seems to be able to lower death rate a little and shorten sickness time for some.  Not enough to be really useful  and change the math.  and .05 for the synthetic quinines which are both really dangerous and don’t seem to do much.

 

People don’t seem to get this.  If the disease can’t be cured, can’t be stopped, and there is no acquired immunity (natural or vaccine) it will eventually kill EVERYONE.

 

ALL HUMANS.  
 

young people might not even notice getting it the first few times, maybe they’ll live through getting it a dozen times.  but they get older and it will eventually kill them.  This thing has the potential to cut human life expectancy nearly in half.  And if you’re over 50? yeah.  Good luck seeing 10 more years.  

[atxcyclist]

20 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

It’s not “till there’s a vaccine”.  It’s’ “till there’s something that can keep the r number down”.  
 

There’s several things that could do that.  There were a bunch more.  All of em have so far failed.  A vaccine is not the only one.  It just that at the moment it’s THE only thing right now that appears to have even a decent chance of likely working.  A good treatment, (remdesovir seems to help but not enough) a good reliable and widely available test, heck even evidence of decent herd immunity might do it.  The problem is there isn’t any evidence that there even IS any of that at all.  The ONLY thing that is on tap atm is a vaccine and that’s not even a sure thing.  There’s at least six bullets in the chamber for that one and people are thinking there’s a good chance that at least one of them will fire though.  

Unfortunately it will take months for enough vaccine to be produced even after the necessary months of testing that will be needed to verify if it works and is safe. It's good to hope but general scientific consensus is that this should be viewed as a goal a year or more down the line. Many people and municipalities don't seem to be interested in lifting restrictions until there's something suitable to deal with it, treatment or vaccination.

 

Mainly it just irks me when people are saying everyone should just work from home (not possible for many) or the government should float covid-19 unemployed people for many months or a year, they just don't seem to understand the long-term problems that will cause for society in general in a country this large. What works in a country with 25 million people may not make sense at all for a country of 330 million, and there are some board members from a country of about 25 million that seem to think they can tell everyone in other countries what will work for them.

[Bombastinator]

55 minutes ago, atxcyclist said:

Unfortunately it will take months for enough vaccine to be produced even after the necessary months of testing that will be needed to verify if it works and is safe. It's good to hope but general scientific consensus is that this should be viewed as a goal a year or more down the line. Many people and municipalities don't seem to be interested in lifting restrictions until there's something suitable to deal with it, treatment or vaccination.

 

Mainly it just irks me when people are saying everyone should just work from home (not possible for many) or the government should float covid-19 unemployed people for many months or a year, they just don't seem to understand the long-term problems that will cause for society in general in a country this large. What works in a country with 25 million people may not make sense at all for a country of 330 million, and there are some board members from a country of about 25 million that seem to think they can tell everyone in other countries what will work for them.

The $50 phrase here is “lifting restrictions” a synonym for “opening”, because that one got shot down.   
 

Does “lifting restrictions” mean modifying safety protocols without removing them? Or does it mean lifting them?  Is this rational or is this kill the world save my money! Type A covidiot stuff?

 

if it’s not be specific.  Because I’m not willing to die for your wallet.  I won’t even die for MY wallet and I like it better than yours.

 

This was the problem with the Vietnam war.  People will fight and die for freedom.  People will fight and for hope.  People will fight and die for their countrymen, but they won’t even fight let alone die for someone else’s wallet.  Not willingly anyway. 

 

So specificity.  What system? What situation? What action? What reason?  “Lifting restrictions” is way way too vague. 

[Deli]

1 hour ago, atxcyclist said:

No states have reached a point where they can fully re-open, because many businesses and individuals won't be satisfied until there's a vaccine. Tons of small businesses are closing here left and right currently, and many more will do so in the coming months as this goes on. Mine will likely do so eventually, since no one is going to spend money for our services for a long time after this.

 

As more tests are available the number of reported cases is going to go up, because of the number of asymptomatic people walking around, so that point is months and months away. People will go broke and lose the places they live, because there's not enough money for our economy to do nothing and produce nothing, while also having tens of millions of people out of work and supported on the government dole. 

Some European countries are beginning to easing the lockdown. People will have to wear masks and keep the social distancing for many more months. It's just the new normal. There are many things people will be hesitate to resume, like going to a football match, watching movie in a cinema, etc. This pandemic changes our way of life, and so many things we take for granted. I plan to take six months to cycle from China back to Europe next year. Now I probably will have to postpone the trip for at least a year until an effective vaccine is available.

 

Just like after 9-11, going through airport security takes so much more time, and many more restrictions. It took years for air travel went back to previous normal level after the terrorist attack.

[atxcyclist]

39 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

The $50 phrase here is “lifting restrictions” a synonym for “opening”, because that one got shot down.   
 

Does “lifting restrictions” mean modifying safety protocols without removing them? Or does it mean lifting them?  Is this rational or is this kill the world save my money! Type A covidiot stuff?

 

if it’s not be specific.  Because I’m not willing to die for your wallet.

 

This was the problem with Vietnam Nam.  People will fight and die for freedom.  People will fight and for hope.  People will fight and die for their countrymen, but they won’t even fight let alone die for someone else’s wallet.  Not willingly anyway. 

 

So specificity.  What system? What situation? What action? What reason?  “Lifting restrictions” is way way too vague. 

Modifying current lists of closed industries seems appropriate, because just casting a wide net hasn't really made sense in all circumstances. My business was closed by category, and we had to contact the local district attorney's office and explain that we could do social distancing as there's just a couple of us in the space. I've been working at home as much as possible through this, but we don't have the budget to have good offsite access so it's difficult. Masks and social distancing requirements are fine, no large gatherings, all that can be accomplished nearly universally while allowing many places to operate. Stores and other retailers for sure have made this happen, and one-in/one-out shopping is good no matter what type of retailer, as long as masks and social distancing are adhered-to. We need real masks available though.

 

Not sure if that is what municipalities/governments agree with though.

[Bombastinator]

18 minutes ago, atxcyclist said:

Modifying current lists of closed industries seems appropriate, because just casting a wide net hasn't really made sense in all circumstances. My business was closed by category, and we had to contact the local district attorney's office and explain that we could do social distancing as there's just a couple of us in the space. I've been working at home as much as possible through this, but we don't have the budget to have good offsite access so it's difficult. Masks and social distancing requirements are fine, no large gatherings, all that can be accomplished nearly universally while allowing many places to operate. Stores and other retailers for sure have made this happen, and one-in/one-out shopping is good no matter what type of retailer, as long as masks and social distancing are adhered-to. We need real masks available though.

 

Not sure if that is what municipalities/governments agree with though.

Ah.  So not “lifting”.  Making the system work better.  That’s much different than you were coming across.  It’s not just the workers though it has to be safe for the customers too.  That’s why a lot of reseraunts had to go delivery only. It wasn’t the kitchens that were the issue.  It was the dining rooms. 
 

As regulation goes There’s top down and bottom up.  Top down is fast, rough, and inaccurate.  Bottom up is much finer grained and can do more things.  It’s slow though.  The FDA took how long to institute a systemic food safety program completely?  30 years?  We’ve had safe food and water and reseraunts in the US since maybe the 50’s. 
 

Sounds like you want bottom up, tried bottom up, and succeeded/failed?( it’s not clear) 

 

What you seem to be defending in your posts here is “open up and close only if problems occur”.   If we had testing and could know in, say, six hours even if problems had occurred, sure.  I’d be all for it.  
 

However, Because whomever can’t seem to get their thumb out we’ve got more like two weeks.  Long enough to reignite a New York.  So we wait and hope we get something to fight with because harsh language and misdirection isn’t going to cut it this time.   Viruses got no brains or ears.

[atxcyclist]

53 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

Ah.  So not “lifting”.  Making the system work better.  That’s much different than you were coming across.  It’s not just the workers though it has to be safe for the customers too.  That’s why a lot of reseraunts had to go delivery only. It wasn’t the kitchens that were the issue.  It was the dining rooms. 
 

As regulation goes There’s top down and bottom up.  Top down is fast, rough, and inaccurate.  Bottom up is much finer grained and can do more things.  It’s slow though.  The FDA took how long to institute a systemic food safety program completely?  30 years?  We’ve had safe food and water and reseraunts in the US since maybe the 50’s. 
 

Sounds like you want bottom up, tried bottom up, and succeeded/failed?( it’s not clear) 

 

What you seem to be defending in your posts here is “open up and close only if problems occur”.   If we had testing and could know in, say, six hours even if problems had occurred, sure.  I’d be all for it.  
 

However, Because whomever can’t seem to get their thumb out we’ve got more like two weeks.  Long enough to reignite a New York.  So we wait and hope we get something to fight with because harsh language and misdirection isn’t going to cut it this time.   Viruses got no brains or ears.

All I want is a situation where I don't only get to leave my house once or twice a month to go fix a problem on my office server, and then have to come back home. I preemptively socially distanced myself starting in late February before any requirements were made here, because it seemed like a good thing to do. I've been doing this for over two months already, and every time a date set to loosen restrictions is around the corner something gets extended again. It's important to do all this and I know it, but to have freedom dangled in your face constantly and then taken away at the last moment is cruel. Free people should not have to live this way, especially someone that's done more than was required even before it was required. Why have I been so diligent about safety, taken a 50% pay cut, and completely been without the hobbies I enjoy, when I'm still being judged and treated the same as the stupidest and least-compliant members of society? It seems wrong to me, being treated as a prisoner when I've done nothing to deserve it.

 

To that end, I understand part of what some of the "covidiot" people are going through, and some of them are not able to work at all. Some of their methodology is atrocious but they're being punished for living at this point, with next to no income and being told under threat of law that they are not able to work. The social distancing and lock-downs may be good for society in general, but it is not necessarily good for the individual, and at the end of the day I still believe we're individuals. Maybe that makes me selfish, maybe I'm a dick to some people on here (especially a few of the Commonwealth peeps), but that is human nature and it's been that way for millennia.

[Rakanoth]

"Herd Immunity may only need a 10-20% infection rate": https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate

 

This would explain why the curve seems to bend on it's own regardless of different interventions.

 

Lately I've been thinking about the idea being floated around of doing social distancing for a year, and I've recently come to the conclusion that even that is unsustainable. Let's look at local economies that depend mainly on tourism like NZ or Las Vegas. NZ has just said that they won't have open borders for a very long time, and here's the thing, their tourism sector employs %10 of it's workforce and %6 of it's GDP. What is the long term plan for dealing with that sector being obliterated? And some industries like the tech industry indirectly rely on the tourism industry too. They've talked about a travel bubble between Australia and NZ, but the tourism sector will still be way weaker with just Australian's able to go there. Now let's talk about Las Vegas, Las Vegas is also highly dependent on tourism. Las Vegas is right now ground zero for the economic crisis because of how reliant they are on tourism. The hotels are empty, the casinos and strip clubs are closed. Even during 9/11 and the Great Recession they still had some business. But now they're forced to shutdown. Everyone in Las Vegas has to now rely on food banks and government assistance. And they're talking about major budget cuts now and in many years because they have 0 tax revenue. And let's not also forget about industries that can't socially distance all together, like nail salons, barber shops, etc. If you were to mandate social distancing for an entire year, then those industries would cease to exist or go underground. We need to talk about a way to get out of social distancing all together, we can't afford to even do social distancing for an entire year.

[Bombastinator]

46 minutes ago, Rakanoth said:

"Herd Immunity may only need a 10-20% infection rate": https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate

 

This would explain why the curve seems to bend on it's own regardless of different interventions.

 

Lately I've been thinking about the idea being floated around of doing social distancing for a year, and I've recently come to the conclusion that even that is unsustainable. Let's look at local economies that depend mainly on tourism like NZ or Las Vegas. NZ has just said that they won't have open borders for a very long time, and here's the thing, their tourism sector employs %10 of it's workforce and %6 of it's GDP. What is the long term plan for dealing with that sector being obliterated? And some industries like the tech industry indirectly rely on the tourism industry too. They've talked about a travel bubble between Australia and NZ, but the tourism sector will still be way weaker with just Australian's able to go there. Now let's talk about Las Vegas, Las Vegas is also highly dependent on tourism. Las Vegas is right now ground zero for the economic crisis because of how reliant they are on tourism. The hotels are empty, the casinos and strip clubs are closed. Even during 9/11 and the Great Recession they still had some business. But now they're forced to shutdown. Everyone in Las Vegas has to now rely on food banks and government assistance. And they're talking about major budget cuts now and in many years because they have 0 tax revenue. And let's not also forget about industries that can't socially distance all together, like nail salons, barber shops, etc. If you were to mandate social distancing for an entire year, then those industries would cease to exist or go underground. We need to talk about a way to get out of social distancing all together, we can't afford to even do social distancing for an entire year.

Link goes to weird registration pop up.  
I do kinda want to read that one.  Lacking the ability to safely do so I’ll have to look at only the headline.

 

I love the word “may”. It’s so abusable.  The moon “may” be made of green cheese because the moon landings “may” have been a hoax.  Very very narrowly a Technically a true statement for anyone but the 3 or 4 living people who have actually been there.  Science writing does that a lot.   
 

How about this one:  Herd immunity with covid 19 has yet to be confirmed AT ALL.  It may not exist period.   There’s a big range.

 

As to the sustainability of social distancing problem that sounds more likely, but it’s word play again.  It’s unsustainable economically.  IF you happen to be Las Vegas or a tourist hotspot AND you don’t spend to make the systems you use social distance tourism friendly.  So not actually impossible, just expensive.  Getting that “come die for the health of my wallet” vibe again.

[PhantomJaguarr]

Quote

Easier to breathe.

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by PhantomJaguar77
Re upload

[lewdicrous]

Just skimmed through the article, so I don't know the specific details, but this does sound promising. 

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25410/20200421/austria-90-drop-coronavirus-cases-requiring-people-wear-face-masks.htm

[mr moose]

11 hours ago, Rakanoth said:

"Herd Immunity may only need a 10-20% infection rate": https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate

 

This would explain why the curve seems to bend on it's own regardless of different interventions.

 

Lately I've been thinking about the idea being floated around of doing social distancing for a year, and I've recently come to the conclusion that even that is unsustainable. Let's look at local economies that depend mainly on tourism like NZ or Las Vegas. NZ has just said that they won't have open borders for a very long time, and here's the thing, their tourism sector employs %10 of it's workforce and %6 of it's GDP. What is the long term plan for dealing with that sector being obliterated? And some industries like the tech industry indirectly rely on the tourism industry too. They've talked about a travel bubble between Australia and NZ, but the tourism sector will still be way weaker with just Australian's able to go there. Now let's talk about Las Vegas, Las Vegas is also highly dependent on tourism. Las Vegas is right now ground zero for the economic crisis because of how reliant they are on tourism. The hotels are empty, the casinos and strip clubs are closed. Even during 9/11 and the Great Recession they still had some business. But now they're forced to shutdown. Everyone in Las Vegas has to now rely on food banks and government assistance. And they're talking about major budget cuts now and in many years because they have 0 tax revenue. And let's not also forget about industries that can't socially distance all together, like nail salons, barber shops, etc. If you were to mandate social distancing for an entire year, then those industries would cease to exist or go underground. We need to talk about a way to get out of social distancing all together, we can't afford to even do social distancing for an entire year.

 

Virus needs people to spread, no people meeting = no virus spreading.  No amount of financial musings will change that.

 

I know you desperately need this to be over, but you are going to have to start avoiding the media.  Your selection of articles apart from being largely designed to sell you an article, has no real information that is meaningful to either reopening or understanding the importance of decisions made.

 

 

 

 

 

[Taf the Ghost]

30 minutes ago, lewdicrous said:

Just skimmed through the article, so I don't know the specific details, but this does sound promising. 

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25410/20200421/austria-90-drop-coronavirus-cases-requiring-people-wear-face-masks.htm

In other words, the virus had peaked so any protocol would seem to be effective. There might have been a minor effect on a specifically common transmission point, but the face masks has always been more of a Net-Negative, outside of medical settings.

 

COVID19 is so highly virulent because of its surface persistence. Door handles are one of the biggest transmission routes, which is why the Stay-At-Home had some effect in high-density locations but otherwise was pretty useless in low-density regions. Several US States peaked before any Stay-At-Home or business regulation changes were implemented, and it's something we'll find in a few countries after all of the retrospective analysis is done.

 

The cruise-ship information always pointed to the nature of what was going on, but we didn't know what the mitigating factors or other details would look like. Basically, everyone in a high-density area is basically going to get it, only a minority will test positive and a small % will die that fit within a High-Risk Profile. Issue is that Profile is still somewhat vague. Over 65 & Kidney issues is currently the best understanding, but there's some definitely further granularity to it. Figuring that out will explain the issues in Italy/Spain, unless the European variant just happens to be slightly more lethal.

 

Up until the 1960s, there was random quarantines of people, families, houses, neighborhoods or even towns when an infectious disease came through. It's been fairly standard Public Health protocol for 100 years, and we're simply going to see it again. The Low-density areas are going to lack the early herd immunity, while the high-density areas will achieve it well before a vaccine is even viable to test. Thus you're going to get outbreaks in random locations regularly for the next 2 years.

 

The other thing to keep in mind is that testing is always flawed, so understanding how flawed gives you a lot of information to work from. The level at which someone will test positive is above the level at which someone can have the virus and gain immunity. This is why any other means of population testing will show massive numbers. The high-spread/low-issue version of the virus spread globally through January/February. What caused the actual response looks, right now, more like the second-wave mutations, but it could turn out to be even a third-wave mutation by the time everything is mapped out.

 

One thing definitely to look out for, since Media be Media, is a lot of people are going to get sick with other things when everyone opens back up. That's just the nature of infectious diseases. Don't let it get to you.

[Bombastinator]

2 hours ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

 

What was that old saying “no one ever made any money overestimating human intelligence”