COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING

[SolarNova]

Perspective.

 

 

[RonnieOP]

24 minutes ago, Commodus said:

 

The important thing to remember is that there's responsibility at multiple levels, and that all of those levels will play a role in bringing society back to something approaching normal.

This is one of the things ive been saying for weeks now. Im part of a group of local business owners that do a group chat 2-3 times a week. And atleast in my area it seems like the local government just wants to shift everything higher up the food chain.

 

It cant work like that. Its never worked like that in this country. We all need local government to step up right now and start making real moves. This isnt a situation where one area can slack off while the other is doing all the work. 

 

As a business owner im doing everything i can to make sure my people are staying fed. My workers know that if they are hungry to call/text and their household will get a meal. Everyone needs to step up right now.

 

Edit: and i 100% agree that there is some blame on the presidents shoulders. But personally im not really holding that against any of them because i feel we all failed. There is blame on basically everyone. From the president to the local government to the citizens themselves.

 

[TechyBen]

7 hours ago, Master Disaster said:

The evidence clearly shows travel bans don't work. Russia banned all flights in January, this slowed the spread but the end result was still the same.

Spoiler

 

Trump banned most flights in February and the same thing happened in the states.

 

The WHO told Trump that a travel ban would not help, he ignored them. The WHO told EVERYONE to lock down ASAP, the places that ignored them are all pretty badly infected.

 

The way to "beat it" (and I'll get back to that term next) is to lockdown, test, trace and isolate. Stopping community transmission is FAR more important than stopping imported cases. Once its spreading in the community its already to late to try and stop it at the border.

 

As for "beating it", I believe this term is incorrect. You don't beat a Virus, you mitigate until it dies off naturally. I get that the end result is still the same but saying "we beat it" implies we did something to stop it and the only defence we have is social distancing which is a mitigation at best. We can say "we beat it" once we have effective treatments and a vaccine.

 

Lastly the MASSIVE concern for me is the second wave. Its already happening in some parts of Japan.

 

 

Exactly. No one is trying to eradicate this. Just *slow the spread* as there are limited hospital beds, vaccine development time and treatments.

 

As said, the devils in the details. Not that travel bans were used. But that they were used *without* the other mitigations. Or that they were blanket bans, and not well planned travel restrictions with testing/quarantine (IIRC South Korea tracked and treated/tested the ones exposed to the person who broke their quarantine after travelling back home, as an example).

 

In other areas, the likes of Japan *cannot* currently apply some restrictions, as by law they are not allowed to restrict civilians that way (and I wonder if some of the USAs problems are due to not knowing how to legally apply, or the delay in, reccomendations to the entire country/states).

[NumLock21]

2 hours ago, SolarNova said:

Perspective.

 

 

The problem with these perspective videos is, it makes Covid-19 don't seem that serious, since some people just can seem to grasp the whole scale of the situation. The frightening part is how fast and wide the virus spreads and there is currently no vaccine.

That video is stupid.

[Bombastinator]

1 minute ago, NumLock21 said:

The problem with these perspective videos is, it makes Covid-19 don't seem that serious, since some people just can seem to grasp the whole scale of the situation. The frightening part is how fast and wide the virus spreads and there is currently no vaccine.

That video is stupid.

It’s clearly designed to be that way.  Notice how  they’re choosing not the effect of the virus but not only the number of people it killed but the fraction.  Implying that because the response to it was better and it killed less people it must have been less serious.   

[RonnieOP]

17 minutes ago, TechyBen said:

Exactly. No one is trying to eradicate this. Just *slow the spread* as there are limited hospital beds, vaccine development time and treatments.

 

As said, the devils in the details. Not that travel bans were used. But that they were used *without* the other mitigations. Or that they were blanket bans, and not well planned travel restrictions with testing/quarantine (IIRC South Korea tracked and treated/tested the ones exposed to the person who broke their quarantine after travelling back home, as an example).

 

In other areas, the likes of Japan *cannot* currently apply some restrictions, as by law they are not allowed to restrict civilians that way (and I wonder if some of the USAs problems are due to not knowing how to legally apply, or the delay in, reccomendations to the entire country/states).

Yeah alot of the things some countries are doing will only work in those countries.

 

Idk about other countries laws but the US constitution wont allow things like tracking people. 

[OriAr]

13 minutes ago, NumLock21 said:

The problem with these perspective videos is, it makes Covid-19 don't seem that serious, since some people just can seem to grasp the whole scale of the situation. The frightening part is how fast and wide the virus spreads and there is currently no vaccine.

That video is stupid.

But that's the thing, compared to some of the others it IS less serious, due the media obsession of COVID-19 some people think it's the apocalypse, but the cold hard truth its death rate isn't even that high compared to the others on that list. (It won't kill 100M people like the Black Death did for example).

 

COVID-19 is a serious challenge in its own right, but it's not gonna bring the end of the world, and if it's true that there are around 100 undetected cases to each confirmed case, it might be time to rethink the response strategy.

[NumLock21]

14 minutes ago, OriAr said:

But that's the thing, compared to some of the others it IS less serious, due the media obsession of COVID-19 some people think it's the apocalypse, but the cold hard truth its death rate isn't even that high compared to the others on that list. (It won't kill 100M people like the Black Death did for example).

 

COVID-19 is a serious challenge in its own right, but it's not gonna bring the end of the world, and if it's true that there are around 100 undetected cases to each confirmed case, it might be time to rethink the response strategy.

So what is your response strategy?

[NumLock21]

20 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

It’s clearly designed to be that way.  Notice how  they’re choosing not the effect of the virus but not only the number of people it killed but the fraction.  Implying that because the response to it was better and it killed less people it must have been less serious.   

That's most likely due to the advancement of medicine we have at our current disposal, where doctors can try what we have, and see if works. If Covid-19 happened 2,4, or 100 years ago, then the results would be much different.

Still Covid-19 isn't something to be taken lightly. While I don't wish Covid-19 on anyone, but some people out there still don't get it. They won't understand it, until the virus itself actually infects them and wrecks with their lungs, then they may finally understand it.

 

[williamcll]

7 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

Hum... Yes and No...

In some of the most heavily wounded states, they managed to end it, for a few weeks.

And then local cases reignited. At the same time they had an explosion of new imported cases (mostly and mainly because of the return of the Chinese who flew away in Russia and then were coming back).

What is interesting and ironical is that the Chinese citizen are now suspicious and agressive towards the non-asian Strangers (from other countries) who are NOT responsible for the imported cases (many articles in different newspaper about that happening recently and ther Chinese Government doesn't do a lot to correct that).

 

Regarding the death toll in China, your number is low...

I posted an article about that and the "distribution" of urns during the week before April 4th.

The crematoriums  in Wuhan received everyday truck loads of urns to be distributed to the families for the event of April 4th in China.

There are 7 crematoriums in Wuhan, each received between 2,400 and 3,500 urns per day. And that was happening for more than 7 days (closer to 11 days in fact).

I do agree that some of the deaths are not due to Covid-19 but 95% are due to it (direct and indirect deaths).

That is not counting the mass-graves.

And this is only in Wuhan! Not talking about Hubei or the rest of China...

 

I'll let you process the numbers implied. And that is for the death toll.

 

Now... Try to process what it implies in numbers of patients who recovered but are left with sequels (liver, kidneys, lungs, heart, paralysis, neurological, psychological, etc.). Locally and nationally...

 

It was mentioned that there were also a lot of non-Covid cases, three times more than before (sourced it from baidu so there can't be "foreign bias").

[OriAr]

55 minutes ago, NumLock21 said:

So what is your response strategy?

Ramp up capacity (Both ventilators and hospital beds) and start to open things up back again slowly with the target of returning everything to (almost) normal by October, react if hospitals get too crowded. # of cases isn't interesting at this point, what matters is how much actually need a bed/ventilator.

[Bombastinator]

1 hour ago, RonnieOP said:

Yeah alot of the things some countries are doing will only work in those countries.

 

Idk about other countries laws but the US constitution wont allow things like tracking people. 

Probably.  Depends on how it is anonymized, and what the strictures on it are.  Except of course that it is already being done and has been done.  It’s allowed for the really rich to do.  Just not for government to do.

[PhantomJaguarr]

One of my customers was a nurse yesterday. She couldn’t believe how people could bring their entire families into the store, especially children. They are “vectors” for the coronavirus. And she looked terrified telling me this and mentioned that fact because of what she had seen from her job. 
 

A pediatrician in NYC is regretting that his city didn’t close the schools sooner.

Quote

The bigger risk lies in those infected children passing the virus to much more vulnerable populations, like the elderly or those with pre-existing health conditions.

“The problem with children is that they are so asymptomatic that they are spreading it. And our biggest mistake was that we didn’t close the public schools when we should have,” said Hes.

“So the children were the vectors to the teachers, who might be elderly or immunocompromised.”

 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/most-new-york-city-children-probably-have-coronavirus-doc-says/

[NumLock21]

2 hours ago, OriAr said:

Ramp up capacity (Both ventilators and hospital beds) and start to open things up back again slowly with the target of returning everything to (almost) normal by October, react if hospitals get too crowded. # of cases isn't interesting at this point, what matters is how much actually need a bed/ventilator.

Is that what they're currently doing?

[TechyBen]

3 hours ago, OriAr said:

But that's the thing, compared to some of the others it IS less serious, due the media obsession of COVID-19 some people think it's the apocalypse, but the cold hard truth its death rate isn't even that high compared to the others on that list. (It won't kill 100M people like the Black Death did for example).

 

COVID-19 is a serious challenge in its own right, but it's not gonna bring the end of the world, and if it's true that there are around 100 undetected cases to each confirmed case, it might be time to rethink the response strategy.

Hospitals are past their capacity. Yet you say it is not serious. Can you go back and rethink for a second. Like, sit down. And think about the hospitals bursting at the limits with people on ventilators, and "only" a percentage or so dying.

 

Actually, if thinking is too hard. Go for a walk into NYC and help out at their facilities. Because it's not that bad, right?

 

My bad, "less serious" is still a lot serious in this case. Some peoples end of the world, is another's flash in the pan. Try telling the dinosaurs a cold winter is no worry.

 

PS, I think it's more about the impact vs the severity. Having a Little Boy go off in your neighbourhood is not as bad as a full on atomic war. It's still bad if in the wrong place, and can still cause more distruption.

[SolarNova]

3 hours ago, NumLock21 said:

, it makes Covid-19 don't seem that serious,

The point. Perspective.

 

3 hours ago, NumLock21 said:

The frightening part is how fast and wide the virus spreads and there is currently no vaccine

The frightening part is the response. Both governments and the people response to that response.

 

but i digress, only posted for perspectives sake.

[Taf the Ghost]

3 hours ago, OriAr said:

But that's the thing, compared to some of the others it IS less serious, due the media obsession of COVID-19 some people think it's the apocalypse, but the cold hard truth its death rate isn't even that high compared to the others on that list. (It won't kill 100M people like the Black Death did for example).

 

COVID-19 is a serious challenge in its own right, but it's not gonna bring the end of the world, and if it's true that there are around 100 undetected cases to each confirmed case, it might be time to rethink the response strategy.

I've used "properly whelmed" a few times in conversation. It's always been a serious issue, but it isn't airborne Ebola. Issue is that the Media can't do subtlety. They've been running the "Is this the next plague?" narrative since before anyone here was born. They want people to over-react because its good for them, but this is also why there's zero middle ground on the subject. It's also why in the course of 8 weeks, the Wuhan Virus went from "eh, what was that?" to "It's racist to restrict China" to "there's nothing to worry about" to "IT'S THE BLACK DEATH! AND I CAN'T BELIEVE YOU WERE IGNORING IT!". They began scrubbing their old headlines a few weeks back so no one notices this happened.

 

The issue going forward is that the data is extremely messy, which makes the decision making very difficult. You have to end the lockdowns quite soon. You're going to get weird outbreaks in hotspots that require local lockdowns in the future and that's just the way you have to roll. But if you don't stagger the unwinding of the lockdown, you're going to have a crush on medical resources because there are other viruses than COVID19 out there.  Schools, Concerts and large Festivals are likely the things to reopen last, but you need to get businesses back open.

[WkdPaul]

1 hour ago, SolarNova said:

The point. Perspective.

Perspective on what?

 

That video is EXTREMELY misleading. Comparing the amount of current-ish fatalities of the COVID virus to the 6th Cholera pandemic that lasted 24 years and didn't affect Western countries? The "Smallpox outbreak" is really the most ridiculous one ; "from 1520-1979" ... lollll WHAT?

 

Or comparing it to plagues that happened hundreds, or thousands of years ago that we have no data on? (Have you looked at this thread? Even with current technology, scientists can't agree on a number of fatalities!!!!). Comparing plagues and outbreaks that lasted for decades, while this started a few month ago?

 

Perspective? On what? We don't have the exact number of fatalities, we don't know if it's going to last or become endemic, we don't know if we're going to find a vaccine. Using that video and saying "see, it's not that dangerous" is misleading and disingenuous.

Edited April 15, 2020 by wkdpaul

[OriAr]

1 hour ago, NumLock21 said:

Is that what they're currently doing?

Thing is most seem to lay hope in test and trace.

I think if there are really so many undetected cases of COVID-19 test and trace is practically hopeless and should be used in very specific circumstances if at all.

We are acting with almost worthless data and we might shooting ourselves in the butt.

[NumLock21]

3 minutes ago, OriAr said:

Thing is most seem to lay hope in test and trace.

I think if there are really so many undetected cases of COVID-19 test and trace is practically hopeless and should be used in very specific circumstances if at all.

We are acting with almost worthless data and we might shooting ourselves in the butt.

Testing and tracing is the only solution so far to control the spread of the virus. Some Asian counties are doing this, that's why they're able to control it. If you have a better solution, share it so we can all see what you have in mind.

[mr moose]

16 minutes ago, OriAr said:

Thing is most seem to lay hope in test and trace.

I think if there are really so many undetected cases of COVID-19 test and trace is practically hopeless and should be used in very specific circumstances if at all.

We are acting with almost worthless data and we might shooting ourselves in the butt.

Australia is engaging in test and trace and isolation + movement bans and it seems be working so far.   The problem is not so much what the government does but what the people do.  The thing with covid19 is that it doesn't care about your civil liberties, your personal rights, your desire for freedom or privacy. Covid19 will ruin your country if you put anything else before containing it.  People can try to haggle and justify their perspective by comparing it to whatever they want, but that won't change the outcome as what's necessary to quell the virus doesn't relate to perspective.

 

* You and your are used meaning the general population not directed at a singular person in this thread.

[Deli]

4 hours ago, OriAr said:

Ramp up capacity (Both ventilators and hospital beds) and start to open things up back again slowly with the target of returning everything to (almost) normal by October, react if hospitals get too crowded. # of cases isn't interesting at this point, what matters is how much actually need a bed/ventilator.

You forget about medical personnels. You need more than just bed and ventilators to take care of a patient. And you don't get extra nurses and doctors by pressing a button. It takes years to train them.

 

Moreover, many medical personnels get infected and become ill. One third of NHS workers tested positive for the virus.

[OriAr]

16 minutes ago, mr moose said:

Australia is engaging in test and trace and isolation + movement bans and it seems be working so far.   The problem is not so much what the government does but what the people do.  The thing with covid19 is that it doesn't care about your civil liberties, your personal rights, your desire for freedom or privacy. Covid19 will ruin your country if you put anything else before containing it.  People can try to haggle and justify their perspective by comparing it to whatever they want, but that won't change the outcome as what's necessary to quell the virus doesn't relate to perspective.

 

* You and your are used meaning the general population not directed at a singular person in this thread.

Australia and NZ have the advantage of having no land borders and being isolated from everyone else.

Once the rest of the world starts open things up again in the (European) summer AUS and NZ will have to decide what to do with their borders, NZ relies a lot on Tourism and if they keep the borders closed they will go bankrupt quite quickly, Australia can manage better but even them will have eventually to open their borders if they don't want their economy to tank even more.

 

It's very nice saying Jacinda Ardern is doing everything right now, but I really doubt she'll be loved as much if in 9 months NZ is sitting on 25% unemployment rate because the borders are still closed and everyone related to Tourism doesn't work because that'd mean a dead industry.

 

At some point the virus will come to NZ and Australia again and it could go under everyone's noses again, just like it did in America for a pretty big amount of time.

[Bombastinator]

3 minutes ago, OriAr said:

Australia and NZ have the advantage of having no land borders and being isolated from everyone else.

Once the rest of the world starts open things up again in the (European) summer AUS and NZ will have to decide what to do with their borders, NZ relies a lot on Tourism and if they keep the borders closed they will go bankrupt quite quickly, Australia can manage better but even them will have eventually to open their borders if they don't want their economy to tank even more.

 

It's very nice saying Jacinda Ardern is doing everything right now, but I really doubt she'll be loved as much if in 9 months NZ is sitting on 25% unemployment rate because the borders are still closed and everyone related to Tourism doesn't work because that'd mean a dead industry.

 

At some point the virus will come to NZ and Australia again and it could go under everyone's noses again, just like it did in America for a pretty big amount of time.

On it hasn’t left the American nose at all it’s totally still there.

[mr moose]

2 minutes ago, OriAr said:

Australia and NZ have the advantage of having no land borders and being isolated from everyone else.

Once the rest of the world starts open things up again in the (European) summer AUS and NZ will have to decide what to do with their borders, NZ relies a lot on Tourism and if they keep the borders closed they will go bankrupt quite quickly, Australia can manage better but even them will have eventually to open their borders if they don't want their economy to tank even more.

 

It's very nice saying Jacinda Ardern is doing everything right now, but I really doubt she'll be loved as much if in 9 months NZ is sitting on 25% unemployment rate because the borders are still closed and everyone related to Tourism doesn't work because that'd mean a dead industry.

 

At some point the virus will come to NZ and Australia again and it could go under everyone's noses again, just like it did in America for a pretty big amount of time.

The virus already came to Australia before we knew it,  everyone had the same warning time. It spread on boats and planes over the 3 months prior to shut down,  not having land borders is irreverent.

Most of our infections came from the US and Europe already.

 

With regard to the rest, it seems you are under the impression things can be made better by ignoring the severity of the disease?  we are looking at unemployment of between 10% and 15%, we are also more prepared for this than most countries.  If keeping the borders closed is necessary then that will happen.  Why are some people happy to trade poorer financial conditions for human life? Especially the life of those who work in health?