COVID-19 - READ THE RULES BEFORE REPLYING

[kaiju_wars]

1 minute ago, VegetableStu said:

do not fully open immediately. that's how you get a second mixing

 

(not sure why i'm telling you this, it's probably not like you have the job at the right office that deals with this matter ,_,)

No, I'm just a 911 dispatcher for one of the counties.  All I do is take the calls and send the right response out.  (EMS, fire, police, etc)

[Taf the Ghost]

2 minutes ago, kaiju_wars said:

I probably shouldn't... but again, mainly cause of my job, I've been more focused on the local level for this pandemic than the national or even world levels.  I mean state, and more importantly, county.  

 

Apparently later today, the governor is supposed to hold a press conference on whether to reopen certain businesses or not.  I'd argue that our state's response was pretty decent, considering our predicament on needing food and other resources from out of state.  Hopefully he continues keeping these said businesses closed. 

The thing to expect is not full scale "all done, open everything!" from almost anyone. It'll be phased back out the way most phased-in.  Though when all of the dust settles, it looks like a good number of places likely peaked for transmission before any lockdown procedures were activated, which is going to cause years of conflict among factions. Granted, we can mostly blame China for that because that's what everyone will end up doing anyway.

 

[kaiju_wars]

1 minute ago, VegetableStu said:

oof. thanks for holding the ground out there ,_,

Thanks, but I'm only a small part of it.

 

1 minute ago, Taf the Ghost said:

The thing to expect is not full scale "all done, open everything!" from almost anyone. It'll be phased back out the way most phased-in.  Though when all of the dust settles, it looks like a good number of places likely peaked for transmission before any lockdown procedures were activated, which is going to cause years of conflict among factions. Granted, we can mostly blame China for that because that's what everyone will end up doing anyway.

 

We'll see what happens.  

[Taf the Ghost]

17 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

And in China...

It never went away in China, all it did was do a natural burnout rate and China just opened back up and will let the smaller number get infected as they go. Given the area that was likely infected, we'll eventually get a reasonable number for the dead in Wuhan. Probably 150-200k. The region has ~60 million population and was the epicenter of this. While still a number dead, that's really not too surprising. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, kaiju_wars said:

No, I'm just a 911 dispatcher for one of the counties.  All I do is take the calls and send the right response out.  (EMS, fire, police, etc)

Tough job, kudos to you!

Hope you're doing well psychologically speaking and have good support!

[kaiju_wars]

7 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Tough job, kudos to you!

Hope you're doing well psychologically speaking and have good support!

Thanks, it seems to be going good.

As for support, county offers free therapy.  So I should be okay there if and when I need to speak to someone.

[Taf the Ghost]

1 minute ago, VegetableStu said:

a question that i'm considering myself: how justified would that be, especially:

1. it's literally one identifiable event in china (which is apparently local culture btw)
2. when one doctor in the area was ignored and warned for fearmongering when he brought that up
3. (i guess this point not as much since we have new info but) air transit isn't restricted quickly enough

What'll cause the response is the coverup & lying, to the point even a Japanese cabinet minister was joking about needing to rename the WHO after China. If in official, open discussions in the Japanese diet they willingly bring that up, expect a lot of that after the dust settles. But, this is very much a "the cover-up is worse than the crime" situation.  Because China is already untrustworthy, they didn't get the benefit available by being really upfront with everyone else. 

 

In what will be a deep irony, China could have improved their global standing by not acting like what we expect from the Chinese Government. Some weird virus pops up among your >1 billion people, no one is going to hold that against a country. Lying about it making it seem like they're responsible for Grandma getting sick? Yeah, that creates decades long resentments. 

 

The other reason "blame China" will end up being the acceptable response is that the movement of manufacturing to China was almost wholly orchestrated by the finance classes in other economies. They'll be able to displace the related blame for why China is always an issue onto China itself, which will be a great way to deflect "heat" & questions none of the elite classes want to openly answer. (Besides, they've already been moving manufacturing elsewhere because China isn't cheap anymore.)

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Taf the Ghost said:

It never went away in China, all it did was do a natural burnout rate and China just opened back up and will let the smaller number get infected as they go. Given the area that was likely infected, we'll eventually get a reasonable number for the dead in Wuhan. Probably 150-200k. The region has ~60 million population and was the epicenter of this. While still a number dead, that's really not too surprising. 

Hum... Yes and No...

In some of the most heavily wounded states, they managed to end it, for a few weeks.

And then local cases reignited. At the same time they had an explosion of new imported cases (mostly and mainly because of the return of the Chinese who flew away in Russia and then were coming back).

What is interesting and ironical is that the Chinese citizen are now suspicious and agressive towards the non-asian Strangers (from other countries) who are NOT responsible for the imported cases (many articles in different newspaper about that happening recently and ther Chinese Government doesn't do a lot to correct that).

 

Regarding the death toll in China, your number is low...

I posted an article about that and the "distribution" of urns during the week before April 4th.

The crematoriums  in Wuhan received everyday truck loads of urns to be distributed to the families for the event of April 4th in China.

There are 7 crematoriums in Wuhan, each received between 2,400 and 3,500 urns per day. And that was happening for more than 7 days (closer to 11 days in fact).

I do agree that some of the deaths are not due to Covid-19 but 95% are due to it (direct and indirect deaths).

That is not counting the mass-graves.

And this is only in Wuhan! Not talking about Hubei or the rest of China...

 

I'll let you process the numbers implied. And that is for the death toll.

 

Now... Try to process what it implies in numbers of patients who recovered but are left with sequels (liver, kidneys, lungs, heart, paralysis, neurological, psychological, etc.). Locally and nationally...

 

[Taf the Ghost]

@Cora_Lie

 

The one thing we simply won't know is which strains were most deadly. The outside-of-China numbers don't really align well, as you can just compare South Korea or Germany to Italy and you're left with far more questions than answers.The Spanish Flu didn't become the mass killer until a good ways into its mutation cycles. It spread fast but didn't get ultra lethal until a period during late 1918. I suspect we'll see some aspect like that the Wuhan Virus, where the really lethal version only hit certain areas. This would result in really messy data.

 

To the general thread, since I was just checking some information. Anyone have a clue what is going on in Belgium? They're currently running a ~13% fatality rate. 

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, Taf the Ghost said:

@Cora_Lie

 

The one thing we simply won't know is which strains were most deadly. The outside-of-China numbers don't really align well, as you can just compare South Korea or Germany to Italy and you're left with far more questions than answers.The Spanish Flu didn't become the mass killer until a good ways into its mutation cycles. It spread fast but didn't get ultra lethal until a period during late 1918. I suspect we'll see some aspect like that the Wuhan Virus, where the really lethal version only hit certain areas. This would result in really messy data.

 

To the general thread, since I was just checking some information. Anyone have a clue what is going on in Belgium? They're currently running a ~13% fatality rate. 

What are you talking about?

We already know that SARS-Cov-2-L (2nd mutation) is deadlier than SARS-Cov-2-S. And, at the moment we didn't find new mutations, yet, except for the 8 variants already found. And we know that since mid/end of february.

And we already know also that people can catch both at the same time and those are more prone to die too.

the 8 strains:

Spoiler

A map of the main known genetic variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 disease. The map is being kept on the nextstrain.org website, which tracks pathogen

 

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/27/scientists-track-coronavirus-strains-mutation/5080571002/

Regarding Belgium, what do you mean by "what is going on?" ?

They are under a LOT of stress, their health care system is over-extended.

They start to see a plateau in the cases and deaths.

At the moment they have 4,440 deaths (+283 since yesterday) and 11,932 33,573 cases (+250 since yesterday).

Belgian government is starting to think about reopening schools some time in May. But more news todays as they will have a meeting today.

 

If you want to know something more, just ask, I'll do my best to find you an answer (I'm just next to Belgium).

 

edited to add:

Among the main problems they had is that the virus burnt through the retirement homes. The death toll there is really heavy! And the main problem was physical distancing...

Edited April 15, 2020 by Guest
corrected a number +addition of info

[Taf the Ghost]

@Cora_Lie On Belgium, I simply noticed it because the fatality rate jumped out. With the population small enough, I was curious if there was some odd, singular group that got wiped out. Something like the "Benelux Asthmatics Association Annual Convention", as having roughly 1/4 the cases and about 55% the deaths as NYC simply stands out pretty prominently. 

 

A lot of this is simply differentials in testing (and there's still enough questions running around about the accuracy of tests) and will wash out over the months as general population antibody testing shows the actual extent of the spread, but death rate in Western Europe is still odd. Or the positive testing rate is wildly low.

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, Taf the Ghost said:

@Cora_Lie

 

A lot of this is simply differentials in testing (and there's still enough questions running around about the accuracy of tests) and will wash out over the months as general population antibody testing shows the actual extent of the spread, but death rate in Western Europe is still odd. Or the positive testing rate is wildly low.

Well...

Let's be honest! The testing rate is low in Europe. We don't have a lot of tests. People who are in hospital are tested or are really suspicious cases are tested.

Otherwise? There are no tests, no systematic tests.

 

[OriAr]

@Taf the Ghost It's probably about who they test as well, most of the countries in Europe test only the most severe cases so it makes sense that the CFR would be abnormally high. They don't test most mild cases let alone asymptotic cases.

A serological analysis of blood donations in Scotland suggested that for each detected case there are about 100 undetected cases who are mostly asymptotic, and there are quite a few papers suggesting the same. I wonder if it's not a time for a rethink about strategy. because if it's true the lockdown probably creates more damage than it helps.

[Taf the Ghost]

18 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Well...

Let's be honest! The testing rate is low in Europe. We don't have a lot of tests. People who are in hospital are tested or are really suspicious cases are tested.

Otherwise? There are no tests, no systematic tests.

 

Do you happen to know if hospitalization rates are available? If the fatality rate in Belgium is actually in-line with NYC and it's simply the non-hospital admit testing that's low, it could be a simple as there's really around 60k cases and the numbers don't look too out of the ordinary. 

12 minutes ago, OriAr said:

@Taf the Ghost It's probably about who they test as well, most of the countries in Europe test only the most severe cases so it makes sense that the CFR would be abnormally high. They don't test most mild cases let alone asymptotic cases.

A serological analysis of blood donations in Scotland suggested that for each detected case there are about 100 undetected cases who are mostly asymptotic, and there are quite a few papers suggesting the same. I wonder if it's not a time for a rethink about strategy. because if it's true the lockdown probably creates more damage than it helps.

A lot of this is simply a data "fog of war" being active (and a lot of people are getting a good lessen in what that really means in practice), but I'm just curious if there's something ultra specific that makes it simply an outlier. Like there isn't an annual Benelux Hugging Fest that caused a mass outbreak.

 

This is one of those viruses I highly suspect will have greater than 65% global population antibody rate within a few years. The Asymptomatic rate is just too high for it not to spread everywhere. 

[Master Disaster]

1 hour ago, Taf the Ghost said:

@Cora_Lie

 

The one thing we simply won't know is which strains were most deadly. The outside-of-China numbers don't really align well, as you can just compare South Korea or Germany to Italy and you're left with far more questions than answers.The Spanish Flu didn't become the mass killer until a good ways into its mutation cycles. It spread fast but didn't get ultra lethal until a period during late 1918. I suspect we'll see some aspect like that the Wuhan Virus, where the really lethal version only hit certain areas. This would result in really messy data.

 

To the general thread, since I was just checking some information. Anyone have a clue what is going on in Belgium? They're currently running a ~13% fatality rate. 

Honestly, I think there's genetics involved somewhere. Here in the UK we're hearing that your average ethnic minority patient (so Black, Asian etc) ais at considerably more risk of dying from the disease than your similarly average Caucasian patient and they don't really know why yet.

 

It has to be because of certain genes that are much more prevalent in other ethnicities than in white people.

 

TBH, and I realise its a little callus to be talking about this in this way but I'm excited for the science that comes from this, theres still a lot we don't know about it yet.

[Taf the Ghost]

2 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

Honestly, I think there's genetics involved somewhere. Here in the UK we're hearing that your average ethnic minority patient (so Black, Asian etc) ais at considerably more risk of dying from the disease than your similarly average Caucasian patient and they don't really know why yet.

 

It has to be because of certain genes that are much more prevalent in other ethnicities than in white people.

 

TBH, and I realise its a little callus to be talking about this in this way but I'm excited for the science that comes from this, theres still a lot we don't know about it yet.

The general consensus entry point is a cell-surface receptor. Which means differential expression rates matter. Isomorphic expression rates matter. Does the receptor accumulate with age? (Would explain the mortality rate post age-40.) The really trick part is the highly asymptomatic vs high risk population. 

 

Other options are the sub-40 Age population will have infection in the nose/throat vs lungs, resulting in extremely minor symptoms but the over-40 Age population gets it in the lungs & thus has great issues. Maybe mucous type matters more? 

 

One of the largest data sets, so far, from the States puts Kidney disorders as the biggest risk factor for needing hospitalization from COVID19, so maybe the issue is more fluid clearance around the lungs than anything else, if you get a "serious" case.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Taf the Ghost said:

Do you happen to know if hospitalization rates are available? If the fatality rate in Belgium is actually in-line with NYC and it's simply the non-hospital admit testing that's low, it could be a simple as there's really around 60k cases and the numbers don't look too out of the ordinary. 

Here are the numbers I quickly found (not much in depth search, don't have time for that right now ^o^ ) :

Yesterday --> 250 new patients hospitalized and 239 patients left the hospital.

Between March 15th and April 14th --> 11,932 patients hospitalized and 7,107 left the hospital

[Master Disaster]

23 minutes ago, Taf the Ghost said:

The general consensus entry point is a cell-surface receptor. Which means differential expression rates matter. Isomorphic expression rates matter. Does the receptor accumulate with age? (Would explain the mortality rate post age-40.) The really trick part is the highly asymptomatic vs high risk population. 

 

Other options are the sub-40 Age population will have infection in the nose/throat vs lungs, resulting in extremely minor symptoms but the over-40 Age population gets it in the lungs & thus has great issues. Maybe mucous type matters more? 

 

One of the largest data sets, so far, from the States puts Kidney disorders as the biggest risk factor for needing hospitalization from COVID19, so maybe the issue is more fluid clearance around the lungs than anything else, if you get a "serious" case.

Would you expect to see a difference in those receptors based on a patients ethnicity? When you say expression rate do you mean receptor uptake or something else? My (granted very limited) understanding of uptake is its the way cells absorb things (like minerals, vitamins and protiens) into the body so I guess expression rate would be the rate at which the receptor is exposed to the virus?

 

That last paragraph is of particular interest to me as I was born with only one kidney. Does this mean I'm at a higher risk than I would be with 2?

[Taf the Ghost]

15 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Here are the numbers I quickly found (not much in depth search, don't have time for that right now ^o^ ) :

Yesterday --> 250 new patients hospitalized and 239 patients left the hospital.

Between March 15th and April 14th --> 11,932 patients hospitalized and 7,107 left the hospital

https://health.ri.gov/data/covid-19/

https://govstatus.egov.com/OR-OHA-COVID-19

 

Found some data from some US-states. Rhode Island is running at a 6% hospitalization rate to Confirmed cases  rate; Oregon is running at 23%. Thus, Belgium could have between ~52k and 200k COVID19 cases, thus explaining the seemingly high fatality rates & bringing it in line with most other regions. 

 

We'll know more in the years ahead.

[Master Disaster]

6 minutes ago, Taf the Ghost said:

https://health.ri.gov/data/covid-19/

https://govstatus.egov.com/OR-OHA-COVID-19

 

Found some data from some US-states. Rhode Island is running at a 6% hospitalization rate to Confirmed cases  rate; Oregon is running at 23%. Thus, Belgium could have between ~52k and 200k COVID19 cases, thus explaining the seemingly high fatality rates & bringing it in line with most other regions. 

 

We'll know more in the years ahead.

This is why the antibody test is so important. With so many patients going asymptomatic or even undiagnosed/untested its the only way we can ever get an accurate number of cases.

[Taf the Ghost]

6 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

Would you expect to see a difference in those receptors based on a patients ethnicity? When you say expression rate do you mean receptor uptake or something else? My (granted very limited) understanding of uptake is its the way cells absorb things (like minerals, vitamins and protiens) into the body so I guess expression rate would be the rate at which the receptor is exposed to the virus?

 

That last paragraph is of particular interest to me as I was born with only one kidney. Does this mean I'm at a higher risk than I would be with 2?

The information I've seen is on Kidney Disease, but I have zero clue how lacking a kidney effects things. Don't know if it's total efficiency or total volume that's the issue. Though the data I'm thinking about was from hospital admittance analysis. But I'm having trouble finding the right article that discussed it at the moment.

 

As for the cell-surface receptors, you would expect there's a possibility of being different by racial groups. You don't know until you have enough of a genetic map to check it against, along with age-based data. It might be expressed more with age in certain groups, leading to the issue. Or it could be accumulation of damage to some clearance process, so it's on the "backend" where things are actually lethal. Which would still be a genetic differential, just not a direct one. 

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

That last paragraph is of particular interest to me as I was born with only one kidney. Does this mean I'm at a higher risk than I would be with 2?

Most definitely! 

 

When you have 2 kidneys, if one has a problem, the other one can do th ejob (if not overburdened).

If you only have one, no room for a problem or a mistake

 

But I'm sure your doctor already explained that to you ^o^

[Master Disaster]

1 minute ago, Cora_Lie said:

Most definitely! 

 

When you have 2 kidneys, if one has a problem, the other one can do th ejob (if not overburdened).

If you only have one, no room for a problem or a mistake

 

But I'm sure your doctor already explained that to you ^o^

Yep, from when I was about 5 years old.

[RonnieOP]

3 hours ago, kaiju_wars said:

I probably shouldn't... but again, mainly cause of my job, I've been more focused on the local level for this pandemic than the national or even world levels.  I mean state, and more importantly, county.  

 

Apparently later today, the governor is supposed to hold a press conference on whether to reopen certain businesses or not.  I'd argue that our state's response was pretty decent, considering our predicament on needing food and other resources from out of state.  Hopefully he continues keeping these said businesses closed. 

Thats one of the things i find weird.

 

Everyone talks about this being the presidents fault (despite the fact that his actions were based on WHO statements and around the same time as most nations) but thats not how things work here. The federal government is not all powerful. 

 

Had the federal government tried to do a lock down order back in early feb. The states would not have went with it. I mean we clearly saw that when they bashed the travel bans and state politicians were telling its people to continue as normal up until march.

 

Theres really no point to bash just the feds. This was a fail on every level. Even a fail of the citizens. Nobody was worried about this back in jan/feb. And thats not even US specific. Thats alot of nations.

 

My biggest issue right now is the local governments who are not lifting a finger to help its people. They just keep telling them to look to the feds for help.

 

 

[Commodus]

1 hour ago, RonnieOP said:

Thats one of the things i find weird.

 

Everyone talks about this being the presidents fault (despite the fact that his actions were based on WHO statements and around the same time as most nations) but thats not how things work here. The federal government is not all powerful. 

 

Had the federal government tried to do a lock down order back in early feb. The states would not have went with it. I mean we clearly saw that when they bashed the travel bans and state politicians were telling its people to continue as normal up until march.

 

Theres really no point to bash just the feds. This was a fail on every level. Even a fail of the citizens. Nobody was worried about this back in jan/feb. And thats not even US specific. Thats alot of nations.

 

My biggest issue right now is the local governments who are not lifting a finger to help its people. They just keep telling them to look to the feds for help.

 

 

I don't think people believe it's all the President's fault, it's that he very clearly has some blame that he's not willing to shoulder.  I won't go further than that since it could easily get too political.

 

The important thing to remember is that there's responsibility at multiple levels, and that all of those levels will play a role in bringing society back to something approaching normal.