China Threatens to Stop shipping rare earth metals

[Wintyr]

https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/china-rare-earth-restrictions-australia-estonia-myanmar.html

 

So kinda saw this coming the moment Huawei was banned and they stupid trade war going on.   Kinda would put a major hamper into the Tech industry in the US pretty much put it in a grinding halt.  there is some stockpile incase this happens not sure how long it last but with only 5% coming from the rest of the world currently it could take years to get a real supply going.  I do know there is this island in the news years ago near Japan that had a nice source of rare earth metals they say could last about 100 years so mabey they start digging that up.  that still leave the US not independent but it could cut out china all together mabey.

 

Story on rare earth metals near japan https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/12/japan-rare-earths-huge-deposit-of-metals-found-in-pacific.html

[dizmo]

Considering something like 80% of rare earth metals come from China, the island in Japan won't help that much. It'll be interesting if this happens. Tick tock Trump. 

[Arika]

"tech" news?

[Vanderburg]

2 minutes ago, Arika S said:

"tech" news?

"tech" "news"

[xAcid9]

4 minutes ago, Arika S said:

"tech" news?

 

12 minutes ago, Wintyr said:

Kinda would put a major hamper into the Tech industry in the US pretty much put it in a grinding halt. 

 

[thorhammerz]

Would an export ban induce a bit of a short-term shortage? Definitely.

 

Over the medium to long term? Not in the slightest - they are easily (albeit costly to do, with environmental concerns, which is why China has been ceded the majority of refining and production of the rare earth metals over the 3 decades) dug out of the ground (they are not "rare" in the traditional sense of the word, perhaps "dilute" would be a more apt descriptor), and existing mothballed processing facilities can be brought up (or new ones built).

 

Definitely expect electronic goods to rise in price if this happens though.

[justpoet]

From the article itself:

Quote

It's worth noting that the U.S. only purchased 3.8 percent of China's exported rare earths last year, according to the New York Times.

It also notes that Australia and Mianmar are both ready, willing, and eager to step up production to further supply the US, and the US itself also has mining and refining of these in our country as well, we just don't prioritize it since it is cheaper to get from China and generally the tree hugger crowd don't like mining, unless they're using the results of mining from someplace else.

 

Next, you must consider that the majority of the various rare earth metals are actually used in China by their manufacturing processes.  So unless the US is suddenly taking all manufacturing back directly to the US, rather than letting Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, India, etc produce things…none of that actually affects the majority of business or electronics companies anyway.

 

So, while it may make things a bit more expensive if China actually retaliated this way (still highly unlikely, as noted in the same original article), and/or slightly delayed for a period of time while global production values shift, the only thing it does in the long run is make China unable to hold it over the rest of the world in the future, and make more supplies more broadly available.  That leads to future competition and lower pricing as while still "rare" it won't be as uniquely rare sourced.

[SansVarnic]

-= Moved to General Discussion =-

 

This doesnt fall under Tech News.

Also this is a very politically driven topic.

Keep commentary on topic or it will be locked.

[descendency]

I love how Trump is blamed for a trade war but China gets no blame for the Great Firewall blocking basically all American (and other) tech companies. 

[kaiju_wars]

This reminds me of the plot of Black Ops 2 at this point.

Cordis Die when?

[mr moose]

1 hour ago, descendency said:

I love how Trump is blamed for a trade war but China gets no blame for the Great Firewall blocking basically all American (and other) tech companies. 

What would be the point of blaming china for that?  It hasn't effected the rest of the world, just the Chinese.

 

 

As far as rare earth goes, not sure how much of the necessary minerals we have in Australia, but given how much it costs to dig the ground around here they are certainly not going to be as cheap as Chinese supply.

[Teddy07]

Nice move!

I hope they escalate further and ban Apple

[Guest]

3 hours ago, justpoet said:

From the article itself:

It also notes that Australia and Mianmar are both ready, willing, and eager to step up production to further supply the US, and the US itself also has mining and refining of these in our country as well, we just don't prioritize it since it is cheaper to get from China and generally the tree hugger crowd don't like mining, unless they're using the results of mining from someplace else.

 

Next, you must consider that the majority of the various rare earth metals are actually used in China by their manufacturing processes.  So unless the US is suddenly taking all manufacturing back directly to the US, rather than letting Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, India, etc produce things…none of that actually affects the majority of business or electronics companies anyway.

 

So, while it may make things a bit more expensive if China actually retaliated this way (still highly unlikely, as noted in the same original article), and/or slightly delayed for a period of time while global production values shift, the only thing it does in the long run is make China unable to hold it over the rest of the world in the future, and make more supplies more broadly available.  That leads to future competition and lower pricing as while still "rare" it won't be as uniquely rare sourced.

It's not ideal to trade with Burma for obvious reasons, and the mining industry in Australia, whilst huge at the moment, is on the decrease. An alternative would be is to buy already fabricated boards, seeing as most production is designed in the US, and manufactured in China. No need to import at all. 

[Trik'Stari]

The irony being that people blame Trump for this when it's exactly what was intended by the policies in question.

 

China has too much economic power, a trade war decreases that power and gets companies and nations to look elsewhere for their goods, diminishing the reliance the rest of the world has on China.

 

Economically painful? Sure. Good in the long run? Absolutely.

[porina]

I think it is the US that is over-reaching its influence, and this is serving as a wake up call for the rest of the world. Seen the latest? Trump's war returns to Mexico, with tariffs on goods from there if they don't reduce illegal immigration to the US. The only wall that needs to be built is around the White House.

[Wintyr]

On 5/30/2019 at 9:10 PM, justpoet said:

From the article itself:

It also notes that Australia and Mianmar are both ready, willing, and eager to step up production to further supply the US, and the US itself also has mining and refining of these in our country as well, we just don't prioritize it since it is cheaper to get from China and generally the tree hugger crowd don't like mining, unless they're using the results of mining from someplace else.

 

Next, you must consider that the majority of the various rare earth metals are actually used in China by their manufacturing processes.  So unless the US is suddenly taking all manufacturing back directly to the US, rather than letting Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, India, etc produce things…none of that actually affects the majority of business or electronics companies anyway.

 

So, while it may make things a bit more expensive if China actually retaliated this way (still highly unlikely, as noted in the same original article), and/or slightly delayed for a period of time while global production values shift, the only thing it does in the long run is make China unable to hold it over the rest of the world in the future, and make more supplies more broadly available.  That leads to future competition and lower pricing as while still "rare" it won't be as uniquely rare sourced.

that's in part because the US companies don't actually build a lot of stuff using it in the USA they have factories elsewhere.  Those countries are where they won't ship it to as well to stem those US companies from being able to produce their products.

[ravenshrike]

23 hours ago, porina said:

I think it is the US that is over-reaching its influence, and this is serving as a wake up call for the rest of the world. Seen the latest? Trump's war returns to Mexico, with tariffs on goods from there if they don't reduce illegal immigration to the US. The only wall that needs to be built is around the White House.

Yep, it doesn't work, which is why Mexico immediately started begging for a meeting regarding the tariffs. It's not like it would be dead simple for the Federales to crack down on the caravans and staging points for illegal immigration throughout Mexico and near the border if they were tasked to or anything. It's really quite amusing to think about how the world would react if the US helped bus all the illegal immigrants right to the border of Canada. Or better yet put them on boats to Europe.

 

 

As to China's REM threat well... https://www.foxbusiness.com/industrials/first-rare-earth-processing-facility-outside-of-china-to-be-built-in-texas

Quote

 

Blue Line Corp., a chemical company based in Texas, is the first and only company outside of China that can process small batches of rare earth. They just partnered with Australian rare earths mining company Lynas to build a processing facility in the U.S.

“The group of materials we're looking at doing are the heavier rare earth materials and there's no commercial plant in the world that is actually separating these materials other than inside China. And these are very strategic materials that are used for a number of high tech and defense applications,” said Blue Line Corporation CEO Jon Blumenthal in an exclusive interview with FOX Business’ Lauren Simonetti Opens a New Window. .

 

 

So worst case scenario you're looking at a 15-20% increased materials costs for a few years at most as various other countries offer to evade the chinese restrictions for the US at which point their advantage dries up permanently in a scenario not unlike the one we just went through with fracking and the complete shattering of OPEC's influence in the world oil market.