Just like that 2005 Jet movie - Air Force to develop AI driven drones next year

[williamcll]

Some generals believe that the future of air combat may be fought once again in numbers using swarms of automated drones.

Quote

The dogfight is expected to be held in July 2021, Air Force Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan, head of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, revealed Thursday, Air Force Magazine reported. The event is admittedly aspirational. Speaking at a Mitchell Institute event Thursday, Shanahan acknowledged that there are "lots of autonomous systems in [the Department of Defense] today," but "there are very few, and I would say really no significant, AI-enabled autonomous systems." He said he envisions a future with smaller, cheaper, more disposable, swarming, AI-enabled autonomous systems. Shanahan revealed that work is currently underway, in partnership with the Air Force Research Laboratory, to develop a drone that could challenge a manned fighter.

 

He said that Rogers and his team will likely "have a hard time" getting to the point where "the machine beats the human" by next year. "This is less about the success of beating a human in 2021," Shanahan said, "but learning about what does it take to build a different kind of system." Rogers first revealed that AFRL's Autonomy Capability Team 3 was working to develop an unmanned, artificially intelligent fighter aircraft in 2018, Inside Defense reported at the time. It is unclear what next year's air-to-air battle will look like, assuming it happens. It is also unclear exactly what the AI-driven autonomous drone might look like, but the aircraft could be optimized for performance without having to take into consideration requirements to protect a human pilot.

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/us-air-force-to-have-drone-dogfight-a-fighter-jet-2020-6
Thoughts: Maybe I've seen too many movies about rampant AIs, but having the battlefield completely replaced with AI doesn't sound like a good prospect. Sure it would save human lives but it dehumanizes war (if there was any in the first place).

[karsnoordhuis]

Great... Now i have to upgrade my AA systems to keep those damn things away.

[Drama Lama]

Can you shoot these things down with a shotgun if they get on your property?

[spartaman64]

if a plane gets within visual range to dogfight with a f35 something has gone very wrong. and unless you can basically press a button and have the drone plane dogfight for you they are probably not viable because of the latency with remote control systems. also it would be awkward if your entire airforce becomes useless when enemies use antisat missiles to shoot down all your communication satellites or use jammers

[Doobeedoo]

Ahh yes finally drones fighting drones and humans can prosper. 

[Taf the Ghost]

The under-card aspect to this discussion is some of the war-game dynamics floating around. In limited engagements between the USA, Russia or China, the attacker can, with current tech, normally get the upperhand because you can prevent planes from getting airborne. Would really be surprised if we don't see VTOL drone craft very quickly. Drones also don't need a lot of aspects. A small weapons platform & a lot of radar.

[rcmaehl]

 

@williamcll

 

[RejZoR]

Almost every single movie with Ai in charge of weapons systems ended badly. I can't think of a single one where it didn't.

[CarlBar]

12 hours ago, RejZoR said:

Almost every single movie with Ai in charge of weapons systems ended badly. I can't think of a single one where it didn't.

Short Circuit?

[Drama Lama]

18 hours ago, spartaman64 said:

if a plane gets within visual range to dogfight with a f35 something has gone very wrong. and unless you can basically press a button and have the drone plane dogfight for you they are probably not viable because of the latency with remote control systems. also it would be awkward if your entire airforce becomes useless when enemies use antisat missiles to shoot down all your communication satellites or use jammers

Modern jet fights would probably not take place in close dogfights but with rockets over distances many many kilometers 

[HempBoosh]

Yes, lets give Skynet more tools to screw us over in the inevitable technological apocalypse!

[CarlBar]

8 minutes ago, Drama Lama said:

Modern jet fights would probably not take place in close dogfights but with rockets over distances many many kilometers 

 

Depends on a lot of factors. Stealth aircraft for example pretty much reduce things to a purely visual fight. At least until new detection techniques are developed and brought into service.

[spartaman64]

5 hours ago, Drama Lama said:

Modern jet fights would probably not take place in close dogfights but with rockets over distances many many kilometers 

like i said if a f35 is dogfighting something has gone very wrong and that also takes away most of the advantages of drone planes. the main selling point is without a human in it the plane can make more extreme maneuvers well you dont need that in a BVR fight

[RejZoR]

6 hours ago, CarlBar said:

Short Circuit?

Now that you mentioned it. But only because it malfunctioned because of the lightning. Otherwise it would be a bad deal again.

[xentropa]

On 6/9/2020 at 10:06 PM, spartaman64 said:

if a plane gets within visual range to dogfight with a f35 something has gone very wrong. and unless you can basically press a button and have the drone plane dogfight for you they are probably not viable because of the latency with remote control systems. also it would be awkward if your entire airforce becomes useless when enemies use antisat missiles to shoot down all your communication satellites or use jammers

 

Fit the drone with some kind of AI then

 

dun dun dun dun dun Terminator theme plays

[Tech_Dreamer]

I didn't blow up the school with the cluster bomb, it was the A.I your honor.

[sub68]

On 6/9/2020 at 9:06 AM, Drama Lama said:

Can you shoot these things down with a shotgun if they get on your property?

You reminded me of angle with a

shotgun

[CarlBar]

9 hours ago, spartaman64 said:

like i said if a f35 is dogfighting something has gone very wrong and that also takes away most of the advantages of drone planes. the main selling point is without a human in it the plane can make more extreme maneuvers well you dont need that in a BVR fight

 

 

First being able to pull tight maneuvers isn't just a dogfighting thing, it's also used in combination with ECM for breaking missile locks.

 

Second a drone can be smaller and thus harder to detect. That means the range at which it can be engaged is lower.

 

Third, and this comes back to the first point somewhat, missiles are not a guaranteed kill when both sides ECM is on par with each other, (they're not even when the ECM isn't on par, but if it is it gets significantly worse). It's entirely possibble for a large multi-aircraft fight to result in all aircraft on both sides expending all of their BVR missiles without killing all opponents. Thats why aircraft still carry guns, and for that matter why non-BVR dogfighting missiles are still a thing.

[Trik'Stari]

Still waiting for them to realize the usefulness of a fleet of EV Drones, able to remain aloft almost indefinitely, with a shit ton of high powered rifles mounted on the side, each one independently operated by someone at a desk.

 

Talk about area denial.

 

I should charge the military for having thought this up.

[spartaman64]

48 minutes ago, CarlBar said:

 

 

First being able to pull tight maneuvers isn't just a dogfighting thing, it's also used in combination with ECM for breaking missile locks.

 

Second a drone can be smaller and thus harder to detect. That means the range at which it can be engaged is lower.

 

Third, and this comes back to the first point somewhat, missiles are not a guaranteed kill when both sides ECM is on par with each other, (they're not even when the ECM isn't on par, but if it is it gets significantly worse). It's entirely possibble for a large multi-aircraft fight to result in all aircraft on both sides expending all of their BVR missiles without killing all opponents. Thats why aircraft still carry guns, and for that matter why non-BVR dogfighting missiles are still a thing.

still this doesnt address the risk that the enemy blowing up your satellites which would probably be one of the first things that happen in a war or using jammers wont take out your entire fleet of drone aircraft before you can even fire one missile. and a smaller plane will also mean less fuel and armaments so im not sure this would significantly shrink the size of planes

[CarlBar]

10 hours ago, spartaman64 said:

still this doesnt address the risk that the enemy blowing up your satellites which would probably be one of the first things that happen in a war or using jammers wont take out your entire fleet of drone aircraft before you can even fire one missile. and a smaller plane will also mean less fuel and armaments so im not sure this would significantly shrink the size of planes

 

Nope on the fuel and armament. Fitting a pilot in comes with significant weight, volume, and shape penalties that mean you need a bigger heavier aircraft just because of the pilot.

 

You're not wrong on the jamming, (although it's a lot harder to jam or shoot down satellites en mass than you'd think), and taking out satellites, but western militaries have pretty much completely given up planning for a war with an equivalent military power these days.