Musk warns twitter may have to declare bankruptcy

[Brooksie359]

7 minutes ago, ravenshrike said:

K... then no blue checkmark. This isn't particularly difficult calculus. The purpose of the blue checkmark was initially meant to identify you as the person you are. If you don't have any significant public relations use for Twitter except bullshitting with acquaintances or shitposting, there's no need for a blue checkmark. If you do, you probably aren't particularly adverse to going through an ID check system.

You are right the math is easy $8×amount of people who would be willing to pay 8 dollars and give their ID to twitter is not as big as $8xamount of people who would pay 8 dollars for a checkmark. They are trying to make money so they need a large amount of people to buy into it and the ID thing would prevent that more than likely. 

[HenrySalayne]

9 hours ago, wanderingfool2 said:

You are the one speculating.  Your assumption is 3.1% interest on $44 billion.  If you had even bothered trying to comprehend (or understood anything) you would realize that he hasn't likely added $44 billion in debts.  Based on the amount of stocks sold prior to acquisition he has likely paid close to $20 billion in personal finances...which means any loans would be about $24 billion.  Again that's just of stuff that has been publicly known (in regards to sales and such).

 

This number also ignores that he purchased 9% of it before...so a $44 billion buyout drops to about $40 billion...or with the above $20 billion on potential loans

 

There was talks in regards to having other investors as well, so even he could realistically have gotten a few billion more of people investing in it.

 

So again, it's greatly going to depend...and you simply can't look up the % that billionaires would get (when they use assets as collateral).  It's on a scale that you simply can't really look up, or get accurate % of. o If you are going to say that they have to pay $1.2 billion then you better back it up with concrete evidence (instead of just saying you can look it up...because again, it's not things you just look up)

I beg to differ.

Quote

Twitter faces interest payments totaling close to $1.2 billion in the next 12 months on the debt that Musk piled on it, following a string of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, an analysis of the financing terms disclosed in regulatory filings shows.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/twitters-massive-revenue-drop-adds-heavy-debt-burden-2022-11-07/

 

It would have taken you 10 s to google it... Your essay took way longer.

 

9 hours ago, wanderingfool2 said:

Or you know...the fact that he stated that was one of his intents behind it.

I showed you the numbers. Do with them as you like. But don't turn this into "you need to have some faith in Elon".

[Kisai]

5 hours ago, ravenshrike said:

K... then no blue checkmark. This isn't particularly difficult calculus. The purpose of the blue checkmark was initially meant to identify you as the person you are. If you don't have any significant public relations use for Twitter except bullshitting with acquaintances or shitposting, there's no need for a blue checkmark. If you do, you probably aren't particularly adverse to going through an ID check system.

People genuinely used the checkmark as an engagement flag, eg "no flag, no need to ever reply"

[ravenshrike]

1 minute ago, Kisai said:

People genuinely used the checkmark as an engagement flag, eg "no flag, no need to ever reply"

Yes, now. But when it was originally introduced, before Twitter employees started doing things like selling blue checks for 5 figures under the table and granting or denying them based on political orientation, it was merely meant to be a statement that this person was who they claimed they are.

[wanderingfool2]

9 minutes ago, HenrySalayne said:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/twitters-massive-revenue-drop-adds-heavy-debt-burden-2022-11-07/

 

It would have taken you 10 s to google it... Your essay took way longer.

 

9 hours ago, wanderingfool2 said:

Or you know...the fact that he stated that was one of his intents behind it.

I showed you the numbers. Do with them as you like. But don't turn this into "you need to have some faith in Elon".

I'm going to turn this into, you quoted a website that is basis it off of speculation.

 

Based off what they are claiming of $13 billion at 1.2 billion annual payment, that would imply about a 10% interest rate...does that sound realistic to you?  The article assumes that the interest rate hikes that happened post getting funded will also apply to the loan terms.  Like I said before, it will depend on what factors there are.  At this stage we cannot know the details needed to calculate.

 

Even going by the $4 million a day tweet they said, that creates an issue at heart.  Even if you take it at 100% face value, then one can't claim advertisers bailed and they owe $1.2b in interest payments.

[Kisai]

17 minutes ago, ravenshrike said:

Yes, now. But when it was originally introduced, before Twitter employees started doing things like selling blue checks for 5 figures under the table and granting or denying them based on political orientation, it was merely meant to be a statement that this person was who they claimed they are.

Nope, that's what people with checkmarks were using it for before as well.

 

The pay2win element of the blue checkmark pretty much made it a pointless to even have them. So instead of it being "people that are important enough to reply to" , it's now "idiots stupid enough to pay twitter"

 

[ravenshrike]

53 minutes ago, Kisai said:

So instead of it being "people that are important enough to reply to" , it's now "idiots stupid enough to pay twitter"

People were paying up to 5 figures to secure a blue check. It was NEVER people important enough to reply to.

[HenrySalayne]

1 hour ago, wanderingfool2 said:

I'm going to turn this into, you quoted a website that is basis it off of speculation.

 

Based off what they are claiming of $13 billion at 1.2 billion annual payment, that would imply about a 10% interest rate...does that sound realistic to you?  The article assumes that the interest rate hikes that happened post getting funded will also apply to the loan terms.  Like I said before, it will depend on what factors there are.  At this stage we cannot know the details needed to calculate.

 

Even going by the $4 million a day tweet they said, that creates an issue at heart.  Even if you take it at 100% face value, then one can't claim advertisers bailed and they owe $1.2b in interest payments.

You don't know a thing about economics and the financials behind the Twitter acquisition, nevertheless you're pulling numbers out of thin air to make a point. That's speculation.

In contrast, Reuters analysed and extrapolated the numbers found in a regulatory fillings ("an analysis of the financing terms disclosed in regulatory filings shows"). That's an estimate.

If you don't like it, write them a tweet. I cannot argue with your fantasy world. Or you could get out of your bubble and find 20 different outlets coming to the same conclusion as Reuters.

[wanderingfool2]

1 hour ago, HenrySalayne said:

You don't know a thing about economics and the financials behind the Twitter acquisition, nevertheless you're pulling numbers out of thin air to make a point. That's speculation.

In contrast, Reuters analysed and extrapolated the numbers found in a regulatory fillings ("an analysis of the financing terms disclosed in regulatory filings shows"). That's an estimate.

If you don't like it, write them a tweet. I cannot argue with your fantasy world. Or you could get out of your bubble and find 20 different outlets coming to the same conclusion as Reuters.

It's hilarious.  "Pulling numbers out of thin air"....the earlier numbers I quoted in regards to the crude estimates were from the publicly available information regarding to how much stock was sold of Tesla and the $13b was in the article you quoted, their claim of 1.2 billion was in the article you quoted.  It's simple math to realize sitting at about 10%...well specifically 9.2%.  You can claim I don't know much about economics, but their own numbers implies the highest end of the spectrum in interest payments.

 

Again, at $4 mill a day they quoted, and based on what people are saying...I stand by what I am saying.  If it was $1.2 billion interest payment, and if they supposedly have lost so many advertisers then the number wouldn't be $4 mill a day.  They had about $4billion in advertising revenue in 2021, which means if the claims of advertisers flooding away from them is true that would be billions right there.

 

Like I said, we don't know all the facts.  Honestly, it seems like they got the number from what Musk said, and subtracted out the "profits" it made so far this year.

 

Either way though, can you trust the reporting of a company that starts with stating there was a massive drop in revenue, going on the claim $4m per day, then stating $1.2 billion in interest payments.  Everything they try claiming in the article doesn't add up.  As $4m per day is about $1.5 billion.  At $1.2 billion interest in a year, take out the $100 mill in severance packages, that would mean a $200 million drop in revenue.

 

As for those "20 different outlets", they are all quoting from the same supposed source.

 

Edit* oh and here's the hint to you.  It was "UP TO" $13billion in loans in the SEC filings and they are just assuming a percent.  $6 billion was bridge financing, which based on the shares that Elon sold was paid off.  So that oh so wonderful $13 billion would be more like $7 billion.  Which again the article you quoted claims $1.2 billion...so that would be an effective interest rate of 17%.

[Kisai]

Elon is firing himself now apparently

 

[ewitte]

On 11/14/2022 at 1:33 PM, Beerzerker said:

Some reference links to this please?
I've heard none of this before and would like to see it myself.

This isn't what I was looking for but it has some good stuff in it.

 

Former SpaceX Employee Explains What It's Like To Work For Elon Musk (yahoo.com)

"If you want a family or hobbies or to see any other aspect of life other than the boundaries of your cubicle, SpaceX is not for you and Elon doesn't give a damn..."

"The engineer continues by saying that Musk's leadership is "best compared to a master who berates and smacks his dog for not being able to read his mind."

"And everyone knows when they join Musk's team that their lives are going to become much more difficult, she says"

 

Elon Musk gives ultimatum to Twitter employees: Do 'extremely hardcore' work or get out | CNN Business

“Going forward, to build a breakthrough Twitter 2.0 and succeed in an increasingly competitive world, we will need to be extremely hardcore,” Musk wrote in the memo. “This will mean working long hours at high intensity. Only exceptional performance will constitute a passing grade.”

 

Elon Musk can be 'vicious' in the workplace, a former SpaceX VP says (msn.com)

"Elon Musk can be "vicious" in the workplace, a former SpaceX VP has told Insider as layoffs begin at Twitter just a week after he acquired it."

"Some staff have resorted to sleeping in the office to meet deadlines."

""Elon wouldn't expect you to do anything he wouldn't do, but the lengths he's willing to go is unusual for most people,"

 

Twitter Reportedly Asks Fired Workers To Return—Here’s What To Know About The Aftermath Of Its Mass Layoffs (forbes.com)

This one is just to show how little he thought through the firings.

 

"Others were let go before management realized that their work and experience may be necessary to build the new features Musk envisions"

[HenrySalayne]

2 hours ago, wanderingfool2 said:

It's hilarious.  "Pulling numbers out of thin air"....the earlier numbers I quoted in regards to the crude estimates were from the publicly available information regarding to how much stock was sold of Tesla and the $13b was in the article you quoted, their claim of 1.2 billion was in the article you quoted.  It's simple math to realize sitting at about 10%...well specifically 9.2%.  You can claim I don't know much about economics, but their own numbers implies the highest end of the spectrum in interest payments.

 

Again, at $4 mill a day they quoted, and based on what people are saying...I stand by what I am saying.  If it was $1.2 billion interest payment, and if they supposedly have lost so many advertisers then the number wouldn't be $4 mill a day.  They had about $4billion in advertising revenue in 2021, which means if the claims of advertisers flooding away from them is true that would be billions right there.

 

Like I said, we don't know all the facts.  Honestly, it seems like they got the number from what Musk said, and subtracted out the "profits" it made so far this year.

 

Either way though, can you trust the reporting of a company that starts with stating there was a massive drop in revenue, going on the claim $4m per day, then stating $1.2 billion in interest payments.  Everything they try claiming in the article doesn't add up.  As $4m per day is about $1.5 billion.  At $1.2 billion interest in a year, take out the $100 mill in severance packages, that would mean a $200 million drop in revenue.

 

As for those "20 different outlets", they are all quoting from the same supposed source.

 

Edit* oh and here's the hint to you.  It was "UP TO" $13billion in loans in the SEC filings and they are just assuming a percent.  $6 billion was bridge financing, which based on the shares that Elon sold was paid off.  So that oh so wonderful $13 billion would be more like $7 billion.  Which again the article you quoted claims $1.2 billion...so that would be an effective interest rate of 17%.

Sources?

[wanderingfool2]

5 minutes ago, HenrySalayne said:

Sources?

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312522192993/d381911dex991.htm
 

Quote

The loans to Twitter, of up to $13 billion in the aggregate, are promised by Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, Inc. and other lenders in a debt commitment letter dated April 25, 2022. The committed financing comprises a $6.5 billion term loan, a $500 million revolving credit facility, and $6 billion of bridge financing. Although the debt commitment letter requires Musk to assist the lenders in marketing the debt, his failure to do so does not release the lenders from their obligation to fund and the financing is not conditioned on the lenders’ ability to market the debt. The lenders’ obligation is subject only to the closing of the merger itself and certain other conditions the satisfaction of which lies in defendants’ control.

 

[Isuck Assimov]

Tumblr is now selling blue checkmarks as well, but it's a one time purchase for 7,99 and you get a whole TWO checkpoints, not just one.

The price/peformance of the Tumblr checkmark is much higher

(love how they're taking the piss to ridicule elno)

[Gamer Schnitzel]

Why does everyone here think that declaring bankruptcy means Twitter is shutting down...? Are you guys so clueless?

Declaring bankruptcy is nothing more than a IRL cheat code which lets you stop paying your debts legally.

[Arika]

14 minutes ago, Assimov said:

Tumblr is now selling blue checkmarks as well, but it's a one time purchase for 7,99 and you get a whole TWO checkpoints, not just one.

The price/peformance of the Tumblr checkmark is much higher

(love how they're taking the piss to ridicule elno)

seems like a money grab, capitalising on the twitter drama.

 

"oh, we're totally doing it for the meme guyz"

and the roaches over at tumblr will buy it for "the meme".

So tumblr makes money from people buying it for the meme, which is their main motivation, not to dig at twitter.

 

Just like the times where LTT has cashed in on controversy buy making limited edition store items.

 

 

[Isuck Assimov]

10 minutes ago, Arika S said:

seems like a money grab, capitalising on the twitter drama.

 

"oh, we're totally doing it for the meme guyz"

and the roaches over at tumblr will buy it for "the meme".

So tumblr makes money from people buying it for the meme, which is their main motivation, not to dig at twitter.

 

Just like the times where LTT has cashed in on controversy buy making limited edition store items.

 

 

oh for sure. the tumblr checkmark is totally devoid of any functionality as well. (and according to tumblr it might turn into crabs in the future )

love cosmetic microtransactions for social media. feels like the olden days on Gaia Online

edit: as long as its not subscriptions or run by Musg

[Kisai]

12 minutes ago, Gamer Schnitzel said:

Why does everyone here think that declaring bankruptcy means Twitter is shutting down...? Are you guys so clueless?

Declaring bankruptcy is nothing more than a IRL cheat code which lets you stop paying your debts legally.

No, it lets you restructure your debts, eg negotiate longer payment periods or lower interest rates, because the alternative is "walking away" and the lenders have to liquidate the company and likely get pennies on the dollar since it doesn't have much property to sell.

 

Big corporations declare chapter 11 bankruptcy, sole-proprietor ones declare chapter 13.

 

At any rate, it's not quite cheat codes. The reason billionaires siphon the money out to another business they own, the bankrupt the company to have the debts "reorganized" but usually by that time they sell the company. Vulture Capital.

 

If laws really worked properly in regards to bankruptcy, every individual who worked for the company since the debt was originally taken on, would have to negotiate to pay back the portion they were directly responsible for taking. But that's not how it works, and rich idiots can perpetually destroy companies they don't have any real vested interest in because that's how it does work.

[Majinhoju]

I knew he was going to tank twitter but I'm surprised that he turned it into a speedrun challenge.

[Quackers101]

we might soon see more workplace situations around twitter, as musk stats about "work more or you are fired".

Completly neglecting workers and only want to fix his own failure "as quick as possible".

 

To the completely unprofessional behavior we have seen, as with previous drama around elon musk, when tesla and maybe spaceX had to force rules when elon was going wild. From the "let it sink in" memes when he bought and fired "accidently" a lot of twitter staff, and the chaos this leads to or lawsuits that could happen.

[wseaton]

Twitter was an impending dumpster fire before Musk took over. Hes just accelerating the process and will hack it apart and sell the assets. 

 

 I frankly don't get why any upright mammal with an opposable thumb would give a holy flip about Twitter. The fact remains a lot of people are losing their jobs because Musk has an ideological grudge against c-suite political leanings in tech companies. 

 

Jesus, why can't this guy build some affordable housing or something with all his billions. He's increasingly acting like Hugo Drax from 'Moonraker'.

 

 

[SansVarnic]

18 minutes ago, wseaton said:

Jesus, why can't this guy build some affordable housing or something with all his billions. He's increasingly acting like Hugo Drax from 'Moonraker'.

Regardless of who it is, the extremely rich will never do enough because they are extremely rich. Don't set expectations for them, as they will do what they do best, and Musk is doing exactly what he wants to do. He just happens to have the money to do it as he wishes.

[Majinhoju]

I'm trying decide if I think he's purposely tanking twitter for some ulterior motive or if he's really that incompetent and detached from reality. I'm sure if any one of us were handed the keys to twitter instead we wouldn't have tanked it this hard.

[Quackers101]

I mean he did something right. made drama yet again and maybe get workers to pay some for his mistake.

[Kisai]

36 minutes ago, Majinhoju said:

I'm trying decide if I think he's purposely tanking twitter for some ulterior motive or if he's really that incompetent and detached from reality. I'm sure if any one of us were handed the keys to twitter instead we wouldn't have tanked it this hard.

Oh I don't know about that, there's a few posters on this forum who like to pick fights or post garbage as much as Elon.

 

I think if anyone competent was handed the keys, the first thing they do wouldn't be to fire anyone without learning what the hell they do. That may take some time.

 

Like the comparison to Steve Jobs is somewhat apt. Steve Jobs basically upset the status Quo at Apple when he "came back", but he was the one saving the company and decided which products they shouldn't be in anymore. Jobs was also known for being a bit ... uh... personally involved in staff being let go from what I understand, but I don't feel like re-reading the book on him to fact check it.

 

Every fictionalized version of the Apple/Compaq/IBM/Microsoft stories tend to nail one specific detail that isn't that obvious outside of tech circles, and it's that tech people often herald sociopaths as genius leaders when they are just sociopaths who do-not-care about the consequences, and are willing the bet the farm on short term gains, even if that costs everyone their jobs, and puts all their partners out of business if that happens. 

 

The person running your company is not your friend, and you should not be defending them. If you do not work for them, you have no reason to defend them in the public space, and doing so tends to make you look foolish.

 

Like look at all the crypto coin companies on fire right now. These crypto companies knew they were operating a ponzi scheme from day 1 and did it anyway, knowing full well that this was going to be the end result. 

 

It's really funny really, all these suddenly failing companies all have one thing in common, and that's they got involved in crypto stuff (coins, exchanges, nft's etc), even when people were telling them it was going to fail hard. Twitter was definitely drinking the koolaid here even before Elon got involved.