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US Military says Drone Zerg Rushes may be Overpowered

rcmaehl
By rcmaehl
in Tech News
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Posted
9 minutes ago, CarlBar said:

 

You ot a source? because that drone is dammed convincing for CGI, (At least for the kind of CGI a youtuber is going to have access to).

You don't need a massive budget or Hollywood team to pull off fake viral videos. This guy debunks most of them and also has CGI skills way above most people

 

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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Posted
13 minutes ago, BuckGup said:

You don't need a massive budget or Hollywood team to pull off fake viral videos. This guy debunks most of them and also has CGI skills way above most people

 

 

Green-screening or other practical effects, (note the name), are not CGI. 

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15 minutes ago, CarlBar said:

 

Green-screening or other practical effects, (note the name), are not CGI. 

And? Did you even watch the video or look at his channel lmao. 

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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Posted

Those drones looks like irl version of Space Invaders

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Infantry is about holding the ground. But clearly they're not the first to engage. Air superiority is key. Once you have that, you can move in heavy armor on land to secure logistics for the infantry to hold.

 

I really don't see flying drones or robotic dogs (like Boston Dynamics) swarms being an issue. Range of coverage will be an issue, so the enemy would have to already have logistics in place for deployment and refueling. For those on stand-by like landmines, those in theory could be swept out before infantry arrives.  

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On 1/31/2021 at 7:18 AM, Mling said:

If you hand a license plate around your neck I bet a drone will think you are a car and won't shoot you. I reckon creative people will come up with clothing to hack drones and other AI.

Ironically you probably aren't far wrong. For a drone swarm you would expect a fair amount of AI involvement rather than a human pilot per drone. AI can be fooled - even existing chaff shells would probably be somewhat effective. 

 

Even now you have 'anti- pap' clothing that confuses cameras and anti facial recognition tech - but retro reflective and other techniques could probably be used effectively in the early uses of this tech.  

 

I'm not sure a number plate necklace would work on its own.. but combine it with smoking a cigar and running around going 'broom broom' and you might be onto something...  

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11 hours ago, Sakuriru said:

This the same Hollywood that is notoriously bad at portraying what technology is actually like?

 

I don't think that's a good basis for suggesting we shouldn't autonomous weapons. Science fiction is often vastly different than reality.

Tell that to Samsung whom developed the SGR-A1. Essentially, an automated sentry gun that can snipe using a host of different imaging technologies to identify and target.

 

Though I'm sure it still requires a human to authorize firing of rounds. But that's being "civil". You can be assured that in total warfare, those rules get thrown out the window by various nations. A moral travesty no doubt. But then again, war is always a travesty so it's a moot point. 

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9 hours ago, BuckGup said:

And? Did you even watch the video or look at his channel lmao. 

 

Yes, doesn't address the point in any way. You clearly meant the original video was faked with special effects. But there are special effects that are not CGI.

 

7 hours ago, StDragon said:

Infantry is about holding the ground. But clearly they're not the first to engage. Air superiority is key. Once you have that, you can move in heavy armor on land to secure logistics for the infantry to hold.

 

I really don't see flying drones or robotic dogs (like Boston Dynamics) swarms being an issue. Range of coverage will be an issue, so the enemy would have to already have logistics in place for deployment and refueling. For those on stand-by like landmines, those in theory could be swept out before infantry arrives.  

 

You do know that sending in the armour without the infantry vs an opponent with modern gear is one of the quickest ways to get your entire armour force blown to hell.Infantry with modern anti-tank weapons are one of the biggest threats to armour that exists.

 

13 hours ago, StDragon said:

Tell that to Samsung whom developed the SGR-A1. Essentially, an automated sentry gun that can snipe using a host of different imaging technologies to identify and target.

 

Though I'm sure it still requires a human to authorize firing of rounds. But that's being "civil". You can be assured that in total warfare, those rules get thrown out the window by various nations. A moral travesty no doubt. But then again, war is always a travesty so it's a moot point. 

 

And? That kind of system is a pretty far cry from whats being discussed. They're talking typical Hollywood A.I is a crap-shoot levels of stuff (e.g. Sky-net and the like), not some gun capable of detecting and engaging it's own targets, (AFAIK Israel is already using such a system and the British military is definitely using missiles with the same capability). Unless the sentry gun is ignoring operator control and going after targets when commanded not to, it's not in line with "what Hollywood has taught us".

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On 1/31/2021 at 6:14 PM, CarlBar said:

Sort of. Some armies have platforms that could be adapted, but the US amongst others really doesn't have anything thats ideal for the job

The US does have something very suitable for this.

 

 

Quote

The Phalanx CIWS (pronounced "sea-wiz") is a close-in weapon system for defense against incoming threats such as small boats, surface torpedoes, anti-ship missiles and helicopters. It was designed and manufactured by the General Dynamics Corporation, Pomona Division,[3] later a part of Raytheon. Consisting of a radar-guided 20 mm (0.8 in) Vulcan cannon mounted on a swiveling base, the Phalanx has been used by the United States Navy and the naval forces of 15 other countries. The US Navy deploys it on every class of surface combat ship, except the Zumwalt-class destroyer and San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock.[5] Other users include the British Royal Navy, the Royal Australian Navy, the Royal Canadian Navy and the US Coast Guard (aboard its Hamilton- and Legend-class cutters).

 

A land variant, known as the LPWS (Land Phalanx Weapon System), part of the C-RAM system, has recently been deployed in a short range missile defense role, to counter incoming rockets, artillery and mortar fire.[6] The U.S. Navy also fields the SeaRAM system, which pairs the RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile with sensors based on the Phalanx.

 

Quote

One major difference between the land- and sea-based variants is the choice of ammunition. Whereas naval Phalanx systems fire tungsten armor-piercing rounds, the C-RAM uses the 20mm HEIT-SD (high-explosive incendiary tracer, self-destruct) ammunition, originally developed for the M163 Vulcan air defense system. These rounds explode on impact with the target, or on tracer burnout, thereby greatly reducing the risk of collateral damage from rounds that fail to hit their target.

 

Quote

In 2008, there were more than 20 CIWS systems protecting bases in the U.S. Central Command area of operations. A Raytheon spokesman told the Navy Times that 105 attacks were defeated by the systems, most of them involving mortars. Based on the success of Centurion, 23 additional systems were ordered in September 2008.

 

Drones ain't got a hope in hell against this defense system.

 

Outside of Naval usage and Irsael the need for this weapon system is low and that is why there is limited deployment of them and for fixed stationary defense. There's nothing preventing wider deployment and development of this so long as a need is identified.

 

Really the problem the US Military command is pointing out is firing authority.

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8 hours ago, CarlBar said:

You do know that sending in the armour without the infantry vs an opponent with modern gear is one of the quickest ways to get your entire armour force blown to hell.Infantry with modern anti-tank weapons are one of the biggest threats to armour that exists.

Correct, which is where air superiority becomes important; specifically with the Apache and the A-10. But for urban, that's far more difficult due to close proximity to civilians and collateral damage.

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7 hours ago, leadeater said:

The US does have something very suitable for this.

 

Drones ain't got a hope in hell against this defense system.

Which is perfectly acceptable out to sea; those rounds will eventually drop. But on land... Let's just say you don't want to be on the other end *after* is shreds the drone like a wet tissue.

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12 hours ago, leadeater said:

The US does have something very suitable for this.

 

 

 

 

 

Drones ain't got a hope in hell against this defense system.

 

Outside of Naval usage and Irsael the need for this weapon system is low and that is why there is limited deployment of them and for fixed stationary defense. There's nothing preventing wider deployment and development of this so long as a need is identified.

 

Really the problem the US Military command is pointing out is firing authority.

 

bear in mind the land based version isn't mobile. You can't have it rolling along next to the abrams and/or infantry. It has to be pre-deployed. it also onyl covers a very small area, (effective rnage is around 2000m), beyond that accuracy and thus spread of the burst becomes an issue vs something as small as a drone. Thats kind of why something larger with better velocity retention is more useful, you don't need direct hits and the shell remains accurate enough to put at least 1 round in a short burst within lethal proximity fuse range.

 

Like i said before, it can be done, but it means building and deploying new self propelled systems. The actual guns and ammo don't need to be especially new, (40mm or 57mm bofors are effectively tailor made for this), but it's not somthing that many people field atm.

 

Your not wrong about why no one fields it though. there's been no need so nobody has bothered since the end of the cold war.

 

Your not wrong however that what they're really upset about is the firing authority issue, they really don't want to hand off that much firing authority to a computer.

 

4 hours ago, StDragon said:

Correct, which is where air superiority becomes important; specifically with the Apache and the A-10. But for urban, that's far more difficult due to close proximity to civilians and collateral damage.

 

Sure, but guaranteeing air superiority against an equally sized and technological capable opponent isn't something you can do, and even if you can get it, if the enemy can slow that down you may by other realities be forced to deploy your ground forces before you can use ti to take out all the ground threats.

 

The other issue is that just like possibble systems to deal with drones, air defence tech has largely stalled since the end of the cold war. There's been no real need to improve on it for most so they haven't bothered to noticeably push the boundaries. But there's definitely techs that have been demonstrated or in a few cases are in service to varying degrees that could upset the current air vs air-defence situation. Again lack of need has kept them from showing up, but in the event of an actual impending clash between two similar size first rate military's you can guarantee that stuffs suddenly going to become an R&D focus and that could and probably will turn things on their head, (Which is another reason it's not been a focus, doing so would upset some really big apple carts and create a huge set of headaches for anyone involved).

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5 hours ago, StDragon said:

Which is perfectly acceptable out to sea; those rounds will eventually drop. But on land... Let's just say you don't want to be on the other end *after* is shreds the drone like a wet tissue.

The land variant uses ammunition that explodes, for this exact issue.

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3 hours ago, leadeater said:

The land variant uses ammunition that explodes, for this exact issue.

 

Thats a double edged sword. I'm not sure that self destruct fuse can be varied as it's fired, (i'm not even sure it can be varied at all, it might be fixed at the moment of the rounds production in the factory), so you have to set it based on the individual weapon, and whatever the destruct distance, that's your maximum engagement range.

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On 1/29/2021 at 9:31 AM, Letgomyleghoe said:

 

the problem with these is they're unsafe to use on low flying aircraft and/or drones. 

CWIS was designed for low attitude stuff ?

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30 minutes ago, CarlBar said:

 

Thats a double edged sword. I'm not sure that self destruct fuse can be varied as it's fired, (i'm not even sure it can be varied at all, it might be fixed at the moment of the rounds production in the factory), so you have to set it based on the individual weapon, and whatever the destruct distance, that's your maximum engagement range.

air burst shells have been around a long time and with good radar you can have them go off just after the miss

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4 hours ago, CarlBar said:

 

Like i said before, it can be done, but it means building and deploying new self propelled systems. The actual guns and ammo don't need to be especially new, (40mm or 57mm bofors are effectively tailor made for this), but it's not somthing that many people field atm.

there are dozens of radar guided 20mm Vulcan based system, on everything from a trailer behind a jeep to on old tank chassis
they can be modified to fit this role

even then this seems like a Canister shot would do well against them. thats if you don't go with something electronic based

I wonder if nets work?

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Posted
50 minutes ago, CarlBar said:

 

Thats a double edged sword. I'm not sure that self destruct fuse can be varied as it's fired, (i'm not even sure it can be varied at all, it might be fixed at the moment of the rounds production in the factory), so you have to set it based on the individual weapon, and whatever the destruct distance, that's your maximum engagement range.

It cannot, they either explode on contact or when the tracer burns out, which ever comes first. Buts with the current ammunition being used, there are other options. It's a specific short range defense weapon so range is not an issue, the closer something gets the more easily it can hit it. As a weapon system designed to counter missiles and other high velocity projectiles even if much faster sub sonic and super sonic jet propelled or otherwise drones were deployed it wouldn't change the effectiveness of this. And at such short range stealth becomes much more ineffective too.

 

If you want to defend against large scale drones CIWS and LPWS are the most effective system there is currently. Netherlands has a slightly larger one, Goalkeeper CIWS which has the same 30mm gun as the AC-10 with even newer and better radar and computers. There are also missile systems that use the CIWS radar and targeting system as well.

 

None of these care about range, anything greater than 2km distance there are better and safer options than raining metal through the sky. Any high explosive missile will do the job against medium to small drones, there's no need to hit them as the explosion itself disabled them almost always.

 

So if anyone wants to send drones they are going to need an effective weapons range greater than 2km, be unguided or laser and image guided with GPS assistance, which will put them on the much larger and much more expensive side so nobody is going to be sending a swarm of those. As you might already know the US Military and Intelligence Agencies already have these types of drones, they are ungodly expensive and 100% not sacrificial. Also CIWS can defend against weapons fired from these drones too.

 

Once Lockheed Martin finishes the development of Open Systems Architecture CIWS/LPWS style defense systems will just get even more effective. Once that is unified across multiple arms of the US Military a swarm of drones is going to be nothing more than an extremely expensive firing exercise as thousands of missiles are launched from ground defense systems and aircraft and will be the most expensive fireworks show ever, for both sides.

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14 minutes ago, GDRRiley said:

air burst shells have been around a long time and with good radar you can have them go off just after the miss

 

Yes but it depends on the weapon and the specific type of 20mm ammo. I'm not sure the 20mm Vulcan is one of those. 20mm Also has a fairly enmic kill radius when used as an airburst.

 

6 minutes ago, GDRRiley said:

there are dozens of radar guided 20mm Vulcan based system, on everything from a trailer behind a jeep to on old tank chassis
they can be modified to fit this role

even then this seems like a Canister shot would do well against them. thats if you don't go with something electronic based

I wonder if nets work?

 

 

Again though we run into the issue of limited range. if these drones are capable of carrying crew served weapons they can carry man portable anti-tank weapons. Those have a lot greater range than a 20mm.

 

8 minutes ago, leadeater said:

It cannot, they either explode on contact or when the tracer burns out, which ever comes first. It's a specific short range defense weapon so range is not an issue, the closer something gets the more easily it can hit it. As a weapon system designed to counter missiles and other high velocity projectiles even if much faster sub sonic and super sonic jet propelled or otherwise drones were deployed it wouldn't change the effectiveness of this. And at such short range stealth becomes much more ineffective too.

 

If you want to defend against large scale drones CIWS and LPWS are the most effective system there is currently. Netherlands has a slightly larger one, Goalkeeper CIWS which has the same 30mm gun as the AC-10 with even newer and better radar and computers. There are also missile systems that use the CIWS radar and targeting system as well.

 

None of these care about range, anything greater than 2km distance there are better and safer options and raining metal through the sky. Any high explosive missile will do the job against medium to small drones, there's no need to hit them as the explosion itself disabled them almost always.

 

So if anyone wants to send drones they are going to need an effective weapons range greater than 2km, be unguided or laser and image guided with GPS assistance, which will put them on the much larger and much more expensive side so nobody is going to be sending a swarm of those. As you might already know the US Military and Intelligence Agencies already have these types of drones, they are ungodly expensive and 100% not sacrificial. Also CIWS can defend against weapons fired from these drones too.

 

Once Lockheed Martin finishes the development of Open Systems Architecture CIWS/LPWS style defense systems will just get even more effective. Once that is unified across multiple arms of the US Military a swarm of drones is going to be nothing more than an extremely expensive firing exercise as thousands of missiles are launched from ground defense systems and aircraft and will be the most expensive fireworks show ever, for both sides.

 

Fixed detonation range is an issue because if whatever your worried about hitting with the collateral is closer than the self destruct  distance you can;t shoot drones in that direction without collateral.

 

Second many of the weapon systems that are begin worried about being begin put on these drones are longer ranged than 2km and are not big enough or heavy enough to need a drone you can't swarm deploy. A javelin for example has a maximum rnage in excess of 4km and it's by no means the longest rnage syteme avalibile, (it's up there but it's not top of the dog pile), and weighs less than a 7.62mm GMPG with ammo would.

 

As for the last paragraph. A few issues. First shooting down anything the drones are firing may not be as simple as your thinking. The Phalanx against an anti-ship missile thats closing rapidly is expected to take a 100 round burst to get a kill. A Javelin or the like is way smaller than that, reliably putting it down with even a 100 round burst may not work, anything less than that isn't going to do it in the flight time of the missile reliably. The situation against the drones will be better, but your probably still going to struggle to get a quick kill with anything lower RoF without airburst capability. A phalanx only has 1500 rounds in the drum. And it's nto a quick change hjob. thats a lot of systems you'll need to cover the infantry.

 

Second, not all of the weapon systems that could be integrated into a combined network have seekers that can pick up somthing as small as a drone reliably, for that matter even detecting drones this small may be a tad difficult given how low they'd fly and small they be. Thats a solvable issue, but it's not implemented yet.

 

Third, missile seekers have limited fields of view, (ditto longer rnage tracking systems for ground based gun stuff), but a fairly dense drone swarm, even with adequate separation to avoid multi-kills is going to present several possibble targets to the missiles, you have a real danger of having several systems go after one target and ignore another because of that. Again solvable, it's been done on a few systems.

 

Fourth, a lot of the bigger stuff is going to be more expensive than the drones it's killing., thats a losing proposition because the enemy can just field more drones than you have the resources to kill. Thats why you need not onyl things that can kill the drone,s but things that can do so cost efficiently. Thats kind of why guided missiles are a bad answer. the British LWM when it's had all the capability improvements added, (and i don't doubt any other major power could match it's capabilities), solve every other problem above. But against drone swarms the missile may well be almost as expensive as the drone it's killing, so unless the launch platform is cheap enough to cost less than all the ordnance the drones it's fighting are carrying it's still a losing proposition.

 

Thats an important point to remember, the thing that makes drone swarms such an area of concern is the swarm part. And thats allowed because building sophisticated drones with advanced capabilities has gotten so cheap that your starting to approach the point where the drones could be cheaper than the weaponry they're carrying.

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40 minutes ago, CarlBar said:

  Yes but it depends on the weapon and the specific type of 20mm ammo. I'm not sure the 20mm Vulcan is one of those. 20mm Also has a fairly enmic kill radius when used as an airburst.

 

 

Again though we run into the issue of limited range. if these drones are capable of carrying crew served weapons they can carry man portable anti-tank weapons. Those have a lot greater range than a 20mm.

nothing says you need to stay at 20mm though, we can easily move to 30mm/40mm and as high  76mm (looking at you Otomatic)

 

wait so its going to swarm but carry a long range weapon not likely.

Good luck, Have fun, Build PC, and have a last gen console for use once a year. I should answer most of the time between 9 to 3 PST

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57 minutes ago, CarlBar said:

Fixed detonation range is an issue because if whatever your worried about hitting with the collateral is closer than the self destruct  distance you can;t shoot drones in that direction without collateral.

That's why for the really important things they have exclusions zones, anything within that is fair game so my advice is to not be in them 😉

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59 minutes ago, CarlBar said:

The Phalanx against an anti-ship missile thats closing rapidly is expected to take a 100 round burst to get a kill. A Javelin or the like is way smaller than that, reliably putting it down with even a 100 round burst may not work, anything less than that isn't going to do it in the flight time of the missile reliably. The situation against the drones will be better, but your probably still going to struggle to get a quick kill with anything lower RoF without airburst capability. A phalanx only has 1500 rounds in the drum. And it's nto a quick change hjob. thats a lot of systems you'll need to cover the infantry.

CIWS are designed to shoot mortar shells as well, there's really not much it can't shot. Still nothing is 100% effective but there is currently nothing a drone can fire that a CIWS cannot itself intercept and then if the drone comes within 2km it'll be dead too.

 

If you want to know how effective these systems are go buy 10 drones and try and fly them through Israel's Iron Dome defense area, just be prepared for the biggest grilling you'll ever get in your life and a possible life sentence. 

 

1 hour ago, CarlBar said:

Second, not all of the weapon systems that could be integrated into a combined network have seekers that can pick up somthing as small as a drone reliably, for that matter even detecting drones this small may be a tad difficult given how low they'd fly and small they be. Thats a solvable issue, but it's not implemented yet.

They 100% can be detected right now, very easily. Knowing it as a drone, knowing it's a threat, knowing you need to actually shoot it is the problem. As for guided weapons, OSA actually works for both. CIWS is unguided munitions with radar and FLIR targeting, OSA allows any weapon to use any information source for targeting, so guided and unguided weapons. OSA is addressing the issue of being able to know where things are and track them always from anywhere at any time by anyone which cannot be done today.

 

That's why OSA is a death sentence to any drone swarm, it will allow everything within effective firing range to target and fire using all available radar, FLIR and visual sources.

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On 1/29/2021 at 10:43 PM, whm1974 said:

Do they make DU pellets or DU Slugs for Shotguns? What about Flecetts?

Are you kidding? This is AMERICA, of course we do!

 

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