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[Salt Needed] Reddit leak shows next gen Xbox specs - to include Ray Tracing

DragonTamer1
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Consoles don't need 5GHz 16 core CPU and GTX 2080 graphics. As proven by every single console release so far. All of them had around mid end graphic cards. Remember, games for consoles are specifically tailored and optimized for that hardware configuration. They've also been using hardware specific API's in them to boost performance. They don't need to sacrifice performance so it works on 50000 different system configurations. And even if they need to port on other console like between Xbox-es, they have very controlled stuff and only 2-3 configurations.

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26 minutes ago, RejZoR said:

Consoles don't need 5GHz 16 core CPU and GTX 2080 graphics. As proven by every single console release so far. All of them had around mid end graphic cards. Remember, games for consoles are specifically tailored and optimized for that hardware configuration. They've also been using hardware specific API's in them to boost performance. They don't need to sacrifice performance so it works on 50000 different system configurations. And even if they need to port on other console like between Xbox-es, they have very controlled stuff and only 2-3 configurations.

 

This is a very important point to remember.

 

We also have confirmation that BF5 does it's RT without using tensor or RT cores. It's a pure shader pipeline method. Taking that into consideration and the console optimization factors and it really could work. Especially once you remember chiplets and how they play with the usual cost to produce. Remember consoles normally use straight custom hardware, that pushes the price up. Here they're using desktop graphics and a CPU chiplet that is being used across server and desktop as well. MS isn't paying the full development costs of any part of this except maybe the IO die. But if they really are going to be using Navi as a desktop GPU unit on some Ryzen 3000 series chips as rumours say i'd bet Navi works on a GPU chiplet + GPU IO die setup. In fact for Desktop and Console use it would make sense to build Navi that way. It would also, (as someone up thread pointed out), easily allow them to throw on extra dedicated hardware for specific purposes without having to redesign the entire Navi die. They're still going to need different Navi die's for different render pipeline capabilities based on what AMD themselves have said so far as well as leaks, but having it as a chiplet seperate from the IO components maks a lot of sense for reuse of Navi elsewhere.

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These will be semi custom so there's a lot of variables and curve balls. It isn't as straight forward as "some Zen 2, some Navi, some GDDR6 and some IO chip on 7nm". There's every reason to believe it's more complicated than that and that Sony/Microsoft has asked for extras for whatever SoC they've requested. Even something like the Xbox One X had a lot of tidbits that aren't standard. Not to mention its process node being TSMC instead of Glofo.

 

With that being said if we're looking at a 2019 or even early 2020 launch time, then I doubt Zen 2 is ready for semi custom business.

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20 minutes ago, Tedny said:

So, it can 

ya, PCPer did a test on 256 GB SSDs almost all lasted longer then 500TBs written, most people do less then 10TB a year.

about 1/2 of the drives lasted past 1PB written, and a 1TB drive would last 4x longer then a 256GB.

 

The SSD should last at least 50 years. 

if you want to annoy me, then join my teamspeak server ts.benja.cc

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21 minutes ago, Tedny said:

Console can live longer, does it will stand? 

I don't know what you're trying to ask.

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13 hours ago, GoldenLag said:

unless AMD has stupidly high yields. this is unlikely to happen. they are at best super low clocking parts. 

 

also, "custom". its unlikely they are using anything but standard desktop chips to keep yields and salvaging rates high. there is really nothing custom but maybe the IO die to have GDDR6 controllers instead of DDR4, unless the desktop IO die allready has both. 

 

 

AMD would use the chiplet design. They could just use half-dead core chiplets and still end up with 8 cores and 16 threads that function perfectly fine in a package.

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30 minutes ago, TheRandomness said:

AMD would use the chiplet design. They could just use half-dead core chiplets and still end up with 8 cores and 16 threads that function perfectly fine in a package.

True, though im still curious of what is on the inside of the IO die. Perhaps a GDDR6 controller. Would be interesting in terms of inbedded designs

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1 minute ago, GoldenLag said:

True, though im still curious of what is on the inside of the IO die. Perhaps a GDDR6 controller. Would be interesting in terms of inbedded designs

Modular design, it wouldn't be hard to just swap in an IO die with GDDR6 capabilities. Or better yet, HBM2 for that compactness.

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16 minutes ago, TheRandomness said:

Modular design, it wouldn't be hard to just swap in an IO die with GDDR6 capabilities. Or better yet, HBM2 for that compactness.

The question is if they want to have too many IO designs in production.

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16 hours ago, ElfFriend said:

It seems unlikely that it'll have decent ray tracing just due to the kind of tech Nvidia had to develop to make it work. Sure you can do ray tracing with compute shaders but it's not gonna be anywhere near what Nvidia has been able to pull off with custom ray tracing and AI cores.

Nah Nvidia wasn't first at all. Mobile GPUs could do it in 2016 

 

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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̌̅̒̾̈́̆͌̌̾̎̽̐̅̏́̈̔͛̀̋̃͊̒̓͗͒̑͒̃͂̌̄̇̑̇͛̆̾͛̒̇̍̒̓̀̈́̄̐͂̍͊͗̎̔͌͛̂̏̉̊̎͗͊͒̂̈̽̊́̔̊̃͑̈́̑̌̋̓̅̔́́͒̄̈́̈̂͐̈̅̈̓͌̓͊́̆͌̉͐̊̉͛̓̏̓̅̈́͂̉̒̇̉̆̀̍̄̇͆͛̏̉̑̃̓͂́͋̃̆̒͋̓͊̄́̓̕̕̕̚͘͘͘̚̕̚͘̕̕͜͜͝͝͝͠͝͝͝͝͠ͅS̷̢̨̧̢̡̨̢̨̢̨̧̧̨̧͚̱̪͇̱̮̪̮̦̝͖̜͙̘̪̘̟̱͇͎̻̪͚̩͍̠̹̮͚̦̝̤͖̙͔͚̙̺̩̥̻͈̺̦͕͈̹̳̖͓̜͚̜̭͉͇͖̟͔͕̹̯̬͍̱̫̮͓̙͇̗̙̼͚̪͇̦̗̜̼̠͈̩̠͉͉̘̱̯̪̟͕̘͖̝͇̼͕̳̻̜͖̜͇̣̠̹̬̗̝͓̖͚̺̫͛̉̅̐̕͘͜͜͜͜ͅͅͅ.̶̨̢̢̨̢̨̢̛̻͙̜̼̮̝̙̣̘̗̪̜̬̳̫̙̮̣̹̥̲̥͇͈̮̟͉̰̮̪̲̗̳̰̫̙͍̦̘̠̗̥̮̹̤̼̼̩͕͉͕͇͙̯̫̩̦̟̦̹͈͔̱̝͈̤͓̻̟̮̱͖̟̹̝͉̰͊̓̏̇͂̅̀̌͑̿͆̿̿͗̽̌̈́̉̂̀̒̊̿͆̃̄͑͆̃̇͒̀͐̍̅̃̍̈́̃̕͘͜͜͝͠͠z̴̢̢̡̧̢̢̧̢̨̡̨̛̛̛̛̛̛̛̛̲͚̠̜̮̠̜̞̤̺͈̘͍̻̫͖̣̥̗̙̳͓͙̫̫͖͍͇̬̲̳̭̘̮̤̬̖̼͎̬̯̼̮͔̭̠͎͓̼̖̟͈͓̦̩̦̳̙̮̗̮̩͙͓̮̰̜͎̺̞̝̪͎̯̜͈͇̪̙͎̩͖̭̟͎̲̩͔͓͈͌́̿͐̍̓͗͑̒̈́̎͂̋͂̀͂̑͂͊͆̍͛̄̃͌͗̌́̈̊́́̅͗̉͛͌͋̂̋̇̅̔̇͊͑͆̐̇͊͋̄̈́͆̍̋̏͑̓̈́̏̀͒̂̔̄̅̇̌̀̈́̿̽̋͐̾̆͆͆̈̌̿̈́̎͌̊̓̒͐̾̇̈́̍͛̅͌̽́̏͆̉́̉̓̅́͂͛̄̆͌̈́̇͐̒̿̾͌͊͗̀͑̃̊̓̈̈́̊͒̒̏̿́͑̄̑͋̀̽̀̔̀̎̄͑̌̔́̉̐͛̓̐̅́̒̎̈͆̀̍̾̀͂̄̈́̈́̈́̑̏̈́̐̽̐́̏̂̐̔̓̉̈́͂̕̚̕͘͘̚͘̚̕̚̚̚͘̕̕̕͜͜͝͠͠͝͝͝͝͠͝͝͝͠͝͝͝͝͝͝ͅͅͅī̸̧̧̧̡̨̨̢̨̛̛̘͓̼̰̰̮̗̰͚̙̥̣͍̦̺͈̣̻͇̱͔̰͈͓͖͈̻̲̫̪̲͈̜̲̬̖̻̰̦̰͙̤̘̝̦̟͈̭̱̮̠͍̖̲͉̫͔͖͔͈̻̖̝͎̖͕͔̣͈̤̗̱̀̅̃̈́͌̿̏͋̊̇̂̀̀̒̉̄̈́͋͌̽́̈́̓̑̈̀̍͗͜͜͠͠ͅp̴̢̢̧̨̡̡̨̢̨̢̢̢̨̡̛̛͕̩͕̟̫̝͈̖̟̣̲̖̭̙͇̟̗͖͎̹͇̘̰̗̝̹̤̺͉͎̙̝̟͙͚̦͚͖̜̫̰͖̼̤̥̤̹̖͉͚̺̥̮̮̫͖͍̼̰̭̤̲͔̩̯̣͖̻͇̞̳̬͉̣̖̥̣͓̤͔̪̙͎̰̬͚̣̭̞̬͎̼͉͓̮͙͕̗̦̞̥̮̘̻͎̭̼͚͎͈͇̥̗͖̫̮̤̦͙̭͎̝͖̣̰̱̩͎̩͎̘͇̟̠̱̬͈̗͍̦̘̱̰̤̱̘̫̫̮̥͕͉̥̜̯͖̖͍̮̼̲͓̤̮͈̤͓̭̝̟̲̲̳̟̠͉̙̻͕͙̞͔̖͈̱̞͓͔̬̮͎̙̭͎̩̟̖͚̆͐̅͆̿͐̄̓̀̇̂̊̃̂̄̊̀͐̍̌̅͌̆͊̆̓́̄́̃̆͗͊́̓̀͑͐̐̇͐̍́̓̈́̓̑̈̈́̽͂́̑͒͐͋̊͊̇̇̆̑̃̈́̎͛̎̓͊͛̐̾́̀͌̐̈́͛̃̂̈̿̽̇̋̍͒̍͗̈͘̚̚͘̚͘͘͜͜͜͜͜͜͠͠͝͝ͅͅͅ☻♥■∞{╚mYÄÜXτ╕○\╚Θº£¥ΘBM@Q05♠{{↨↨▬§¶‼↕◄►☼1♦  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12 hours ago, TheRandomness said:

Modular design, it wouldn't be hard to just swap in an IO die with GDDR6 capabilities. Or better yet, HBM2 for that compactness.

Or just not use an I/O Die at alll and put the CPU Core next to the NAVI Die.

 

Though it would make sense to use IF between GPU and CPU and make a 14nm or so I/O Die with GDDR6 

"Hell is full of good meanings, but Heaven is full of good works"

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15 minutes ago, Tedny said:

Games should be 10-200% bigger next gen, at least for 4k+ textures, how SSD's with writing big data files after few years of consistent read/writing (that biggest game will be on the last few years of the generation when devs can use Hardware on full potential)?  

You really don't have an idea of how big of a number 500TBW is? 

The SSD will last over 10 years in that xbox, if all you did was writing data to it constantly 24/7 without doing anything else.

But because you are not doing that, you are mostly playing on it, then the ssd will be perfectly fine for even more years. 

 

Here is an example. The ssd i have used in my pc for 4 years now pretty much running constantly for 4 years straight, only has 16TBW, and that is with all windows re-installs and loads of games. The xbox will have a much lower TBW by that time.

 

 

 

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Posted

Lol, people don't seem to understand how durable SSD's are. I have my Samsung 850 Pro 2TB for around 3 years now and I think my writes show a bit over 30TB. Total specified endurance is 500TB. What these drives usually actually reach is 1PB. Yeah, 1 petabyte of writes. I probably won't even reach 500TB in the time I'll be using it and I don't have any plans on changing it unless SATA becomes so obsolete I won't be able to plug it in anymore. Or I'll migrate to NVMe by myself for the sake of easier management since you don't need bunch of cables for data and power (for which I need entire modular PSU cable with 3 or 4 SATA power connectors for just 1 SSD).

 

The thing is, even if we get games 100GB in size as standard. You write that once to drive and then it's 99% of the time just reading of that. You'd have to install 10 games of such size to write 1TB. And then you'll make like 500TB of reads from that which doesn't wear SSD's at all.

 

I used to have a lot of SSD wear anxiety before, but SSD's are so good today it doesn't really matter anymore. Even cheapest QLC SSD's will last you for years and for most people, it'll get too old and small before it'll wear out. I don't think my 850 Pro will have any different fate...

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Now that I think about it, I have a Problem with the 1TB SSD without having the Option for a 15mm HDD.

Why? Because if you download a couple of games, 1TB really isn't that much. Especially if we're talking about "real 4K Games".

Wich means 80-100GB per Game (=like Red Dead 2).

So essentially, the 1TB is hardly enough for like 10 Games, if we're lucky...

 

BUT: The most important thing: Is the internal drive replacable or not??

Last Gen both had replacable Harddrives - more or less (PS3 was locked to the console but you could use everything up to ~1,5TB, XBox 360 allegedly not but needed vendor specific drives with special firmware)....

 

This Generation Sony stuck with the replacable Harddrive, M$ for no reason didn't and made it not user replacable.

 

But what about next generation??

Will they still be replacable? Or do they pull an Apple?? And solder the SSD towards the Board??

 

PS: the Flash Memory in the Switch is technically replacable, though not by the user...

"Hell is full of good meanings, but Heaven is full of good works"

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23 hours ago, The Benjamins said:

My estimated BOM cost of those specs is around $500, keeping in mind this is a 2020 product. and for MS to sell it at $400-$500 sounds reasonable to me

Yeah I was at about $400-500 BOM which seems reasonable, the consoles themselves don't turn a profit it's the games and subscription service that pull in the money.

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1 hour ago, Stefan Payne said:

This Generation Sony stuck with the replacable Harddrive, M$ for no reason didn't and made it not user replacable.

You can just plug external drives in to the Xbox, why would it need to have a replaceable hard drive?

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9 minutes ago, schwellmo92 said:

Yeah I was at about $400-500 BOM which seems reasonable, the consoles themselves don't turn a profit it's the games and subscription service that pull in the money.

The "razor and blades" model of selling products.

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We do not sell cosmetics. We just blind animals."

 

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2 hours ago, Tedny said:

I geming about 1Tb a day on my HDD, 500Tb isn't that much 

So you are downloading 1TB worth of stuff to your hdd every day? that is 30TB of data a month, meaning you either have very fast internet or you don't know what you are talking about. 

When you load a game then pretty much nothing gets written to the drive, when you play a game nothing gets written to the drive. Only when you download a game stuff gets written to the drive, for example BO3=100gb. So unless you download 10 new games to the harddrive every single day and then delete them the same day, you are not going through 1TB a day. Id be surprised if you went through 0.01TB a day. Having a 1tb hdd =/= using 1tb of data.

 

 

I only see your reply if you @ me.

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On 1/25/2019 at 2:53 AM, TheDankKoosh said:

The rumored specs for the next Xbox console, codenamed Anubis, are:

CPU: Custom 8 cores / 16 Threads Zen 2 CPU

GPU: Custom NAVI @12+ teraflops

Memory: 16GB GDDR6

Storage: 1TB NVMe SSD @ 1+GB/s

DirectX Raytracing + MS AI

 

This would cost 1k at least with these kind of specs, I don't even see modern consoles switching off of hdds for another 5-10 years so an nvme ssd that is much more expensive than a sata ssd is already about half the cost of this machine. A 12 teraflop navi also seems completely out of the question since this needs to be a cheap chip and 12 teraflops would put it right by vega 64. The most likely out of this entire lineup is the 8c 16t zen 2 chip, and I even doubt that due to cost factors yet again.

Let's take retail pricing and try and get a figure here - while also keeping in mind that:

1. Microsoft has OEM large volume purchasing power - which means they pay less than I do.

2. AMD would be incentivised to sell at somewhat low margins to ensure NVIDIA or Intel doesn't get a foothold

3. Microsoft (and Sony) have in the past, sold the console at a loss to garner marketshare (and make up the difference with game sale royalties and direct purchases via the digital store)

 

(all prices from New Egg US)

CPU: Ryzen 7 2700x - on sale for $309.99

GPU: 12TFLOPS puts it smack dab in between Vega 56 and 64 - 56 can be found for $330, 64 can be found for $400. Let's call it even and say $350

RAM: Plenty of DDR4 kits (Since I can't get pricing on GDDR6) for $100

Storage: There's a Crucial P1 1TB NVME M.2 SSD on sale right now for $144.99 USD

Total: $904.98

 

Then there's also motherboard, Chassis, and possibly optical drive - so another $100 on top of that (probably less). That's pretty close to $1000.

 

Now, let's also assume AMD/Microsoft can get the pricing down by 30% on each component.

CPU: $216.99

GPU: $245

RAM: $70

Storage: $101.49

Total: $633.48

 

Now that's a totally reasonable BOM for a "high end" next generation console that gets near GTX 1080 performance. I could see them selling it at a loss for $599. And within 6-12 months they'll likely get the cost down to under retail, and start making a profit on hardware.

For Sale: Meraki Bundle

 

iPhone Xr 128 GB Product Red - HP Spectre x360 13" (i5 - 8 GB RAM - 256 GB SSD) - HP ZBook 15v G5 15" (i7-8850H - 16 GB RAM - 512 GB SSD - NVIDIA Quadro P600)

 

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2 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

Let's take retail pricing and try and get a figure here - while also keeping in mind that:

1. Microsoft has OEM large volume purchasing power - which means they pay less than I do.

2. AMD would be incentivised to sell at somewhat low margins to ensure NVIDIA or Intel doesn't get a foothold

3. Microsoft (and Sony) have in the past, sold the console at a loss to garner marketshare (and make up the difference with game sale royalties and direct purchases via the digital store)

 

(all prices from New Egg US)

CPU: Ryzen 7 2700x - on sale for $309.99

GPU: 12TFLOPS puts it smack dab in between Vega 56 and 64 - 56 can be found for $330, 64 can be found for $400. Let's call it even and say $350

RAM: Plenty of DDR4 kits (Since I can't get pricing on GDDR6) for $100

Storage: There's a Crucial P1 1TB NVME M.2 SSD on sale right now for $144.99 USD

Total: $904.98

 

Then there's also motherboard, Chassis, and possibly optical drive - so another $100 on top of that (probably less). That's pretty close to $1000.

 

Now, let's also assume AMD/Microsoft can get the pricing down by 30% on each component.

CPU: $216.99

GPU: $245

RAM: $70

Storage: $101.49

Total: $633.48

 

Now that's a totally reasonable BOM for a "high end" next generation console that gets near GTX 1080 performance. I could see them selling it at a loss for $599. And within 6-12 months they'll likely get the cost down to under retail, and start making a profit on hardware.

Sold to the guy with a PC :P TBH I've been a xbox fan for a long time, I have a 360 and a one, I'll probably buy this one. 

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1 minute ago, Pi31415 said:

Sold to the guy with a PC :P TBH I've been a xbox fan for a long time, I have a 360 and a one, I'll probably buy this one. 

I have a One S - I primarily use it as a Media Centre/HTPC, but I do occasionally game on it too (mostly just the XBL Games for Gold, and the Master Chief Collection).

 

I'm quite interested in the next gen Xbox.

For Sale: Meraki Bundle

 

iPhone Xr 128 GB Product Red - HP Spectre x360 13" (i5 - 8 GB RAM - 256 GB SSD) - HP ZBook 15v G5 15" (i7-8850H - 16 GB RAM - 512 GB SSD - NVIDIA Quadro P600)

 

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1 minute ago, dalekphalm said:

I have a One S - I primarily use it as a Media Centre/HTPC, but I do occasionally game on it too (mostly just the XBL Games for Gold, and the Master Chief Collection).

 

I'm quite interested in the next gen Xbox.

The pay 1 dollar and get access to a whole arsenal of games is fun to play once in a while, though my family uses it just to watch netflix now a days too. The last time we fought over who got to play on the Xbox awas probably 3 years ago. Unless they bring VR into the scene which then we'd have a couple of murders just to get on the Xbox lul

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1 hour ago, schwellmo92 said:

You can just plug external drives in to the Xbox, why would it need to have a replaceable hard drive?

HDD can die

HDD -> SSD

 

just 2 examples

"Hell is full of good meanings, but Heaven is full of good works"

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