[Salt Needed] Reddit leak shows next gen Xbox specs - to include Ray Tracing

[dalekphalm]

1 minute ago, Stefan Payne said:

HDD can die

HDD -> SSD

 

just 2 examples

Good points - and if it dies out of warranty, it's somewhat of a bitch to restore an Xbox One system drive, unless you have access to another one that still works.

 

Hopefully this is an area where they improve the next generation system (Eg: allow any drive to be internally installed, and then just provision the drive using built-in firmware, and download the Xbox One OS over the web to install the OS).

 

Granted, in terms of #2 there, the new Xbox is rumoured to have an SSD, and for external, you can decide yourself what kind of external media you want to use (SSD vs HDD).

 

The internal 1TB SSD, if accurate, is 100% sufficient for your average gamer. The SSD will likely far outlast the rest of the system before write wear becomes a problem.

[Stefan Payne]

17 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

(all prices from New Egg US)

CPU: Ryzen 7 2700x - on sale for $309.99

GPU: 12TFLOPS puts it smack dab in between Vega 56 and 64 - 56 can be found for $330, 64 can be found for $400. Let's call it even and say $350

RAM: Plenty of DDR4 kits (Since I can't get pricing on GDDR6) for $100

Storage: There's a Crucial P1 1TB NVME M.2 SSD on sale right now for $144.99 USD

Total: $904.98

 

Then there's also motherboard, Chassis, and possibly optical drive - so another $100 on top of that (probably less). That's pretty close to $1000.

Problem is that your prices are wrong.

You have to look at the lowest cost chips with a similar die size

So i'd be really suprised if M$ would pay more than like 200€ or so for the APU, probably even less than that.

 

Another thing to consider: M$ purchases large quantaties, directly from the manufacturer.

That means that at least, in a low margin situation, they save:
Importeur - 10%

Distributor - 10%

(e)Tail: -10%

 

So for the drive at least 30% off.

BUT: there's also the cost for Marketing and especially Enduser Support - M$ is not an Enduser, so doesn't pay for Support.

So I'd say that they could drop another 10-20% here eventually...

 

So with that and their last generation failure, they won't spnosor the consoles ever again!
They might sell it at low or no margin, maybe at cost but not under that.

 

17 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

Now, let's also assume AMD/Microsoft can get the pricing down by 30% on each component.

 

No, its more...

Especially in large quantaties.

We're not talking about like 500k or so.

We're talking about a planned volume of at least 50 Million (though that is with maybe some revisions. And even a failed console like the WiiU is like 14 Million a successful console is like 100 Million for the whole lifetime of the console (last gen was 80 Million each))

 

So, no, its completely different. Especially the AMD Prices are manufacturing cost + maybe 10% or so on top.

And essentially a pretty weird contract for various reasons (basically contracted contract manufacturing where essentially M$ is responsible for the chip and everything. AMD is just the "middle man")...

17 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

I could see them selling it at a loss for $599.

I could see them selling it at a low margin for 599.

As said, due to the failure of last gen, they won't do the same mistake again...

 

17 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

And within 6-12 months they'll likely get the cost down to under retail, and start making a profit on hardware.

no because there is no real shrink in sight.

They will switch to 7nm+ with EUV lighting but that's about it.

 

But I'd say that manufacturing the console is under 599 with shipping, marketing the worst case is a 0. Best case is maybe 20-50€ profit on each console.

[dalekphalm]

Just now, Stefan Payne said:

Problem is that your prices are wrong.

You have to look at the lowest cost chips with a similar die size

So i'd be really suprised if M$ would pay more than like 200€ or so for the APU, probably even less than that.

Of course my prices are wrong, that's almost 100% entirely the point of that post, to showcase how:

1. Retail pricing might look,

2. How Microsoft and AMD are sure as hell not selling at retail pricing, and finally

3. None of us have any real idea what the BOM costs are going to be this early. Even the best answers are still largely guesses.

 

Also you're assuming that the SoC is an APU - we don't know that. Fitting a 12TFLOP GPU onto an APU's die would be extremely impressive. Logically it would be much more simple to drop in a semi-custom "Zen 2" CPU with a separate GPU module. Will they do this? I don't know - they could go either way, but from a technical perspective, packaging it all into an APU would be more challenging.

Just now, Stefan Payne said:

Another thing to consider: M$ purchases large quantaties, directly from the manufacturer.

That means that at least, in a low margin situation, they save:
Importeur - 10%

Distributor - 10%

(e)Tail: -10%

Correct.

Just now, Stefan Payne said:

So for the drive at least 30% off.

Yes, which is in part where I got my totally arbitrary 30% off Retail price figures from.

Just now, Stefan Payne said:

BUT: there's also the cost for Marketing and especially Enduser Support - M$ is not an Enduser, so doesn't pay for Support.

So I'd say that they could drop another 10-20% here eventually...

Marketing is still going to cost a lot, but that's not part of the BOM cost. If we're counting marketing, we also have to count R&D, which is certainly in the hundreds of millions - perhaps stretching into the Billions. I chose to ignore non-BOM costs due to the inability to accurately take them into account.

Just now, Stefan Payne said:

So with that and their last generation failure, they won't spnosor the consoles ever again!
They might sell it at low or no margin, maybe at cost but not under that.

Their last generation wasn't a failure. It just wasn't as large of a success as they wanted. I suppose you could semantically argue that "failure" depends on what success conditions you're measuring against. Which is correct. But the Xbox still sold dozens of millions of units, and still made a lot of money.

 

As to whether they will ever "sponsor consoles" again (sell at a loss), for you to say in a blanket statement, "no"? There's no way you can predict that. Indeed, they might stay away from selling at a loss, but that decision could easily change in the future.

Just now, Stefan Payne said:

No, its more...

Especially in large quantaties.

We're not talking about like 500k or so.

We're talking about a planned volume of at least 50 Million (though that is with maybe some revisions. And even a failed console like the WiiU is like 14 Million a successful console is like 100 Million for the whole lifetime of the console (last gen was 80 Million each))

As stated above, 30% is a somewhat arbitrary number simply used to showcase how they pay significantly under retail pricing. However, you saying "It's more", is almost certainly a guess (perhaps an educated one, but a guess none the less).

 

So that number could definitely be 30%, or even upwards of 50% (possibly even higher, depending on margin on each part, and how aggressive AMD wants to get).

Just now, Stefan Payne said:

So, no, its completely different. Especially the AMD Prices are manufacturing cost + maybe 10% or so on top.

And essentially a pretty weird contract for various reasons (basically contracted contract manufacturing where essentially M$ is responsible for the chip and everything. AMD is just the "middle man")...

Again, the manufacturing cost + 10% margin is a guess only (unless you've got insider AMD info, if so, please share). It's likely a good guess, mind you, but I cannot in good faith rely on that number any more than as an "estimate" at best.

Just now, Stefan Payne said:

I could see them selling it at a low margin for 599.

As said, due to the failure of last gen, they won't do the same mistake again...

I think it largely depends on the market conditions they'll see in 2020. If they have to sell at a small loss to ensure that the "PS5" doesn't undercut their comparable console by $50 or $100, I guarantee they'll do it.

 

That was one of the big factors that screwed Microsoft in the beginning of the current generation. They sold the One bundled w/ Kinect, for $100 more than the PS4 (without PS Move). Nobody cared about the Kinect, so Microsoft was adding $100 to the price for a console that (when first released) was slower than the PS4 in performance. It was just bad pricing and bad product placement.

 

Hopefully Microsoft has learned from that lesson. I could see the console going for as high as $699, but ideally I'd like to see it at $599 or under if possible.

Just now, Stefan Payne said:

no because there is no real shrink in sight.

They will switch to 7nm+ with EUV lighting but that's about it.

Manufacturing costs aren't just about node shrinkage - there are plenty of manufacturing efficiencies to squeeze out after you've made a part for a year. These won't be massive efficiencies or anything, but even a few pennies here, a few pennies there will add up.

Just now, Stefan Payne said:

But I'd say that manufacturing the console is under 599 with shipping, marketing the worst case is a 0. Best case is maybe 20-50€ profit on each console.

I think we're in agreement about this, yes.

[Stefan Payne]

14 minutes ago, dalekphalm said:

Good points - and if it dies out of warranty, it's somewhat of a bitch to restore an Xbox One system drive, unless you have access to another one that still works.

You can't replace the HDD with the one from another one IIRC.

Replacing the HDD inside the XBox is a total pain in the ass. While it is possible and in some cases you can even put a 15mm drive inside, its not something the average joe can do.

You need to be good with the screwdriver. You need to know your way with Windows.

Quote

Hopefully this is an area where they improve the next generation system

Hopefully they have a replacable SSD at all and don't do the Apple way and solder that shit to the Board. 

 

The XBox One is in some areas 2 steps back. IIRC the savegames you could put on a USB Drive in the XBox 360 and/or copy it wherever you want (wich is why I'd recommend getting the 4GB Slim and ram a 250GiB minimum WD HDD in the Drive bay)

Quote

Granted, in terms of #2 there, the new Xbox is rumoured to have an SSD, and for external, you can decide yourself what kind of external media you want to use (SSD vs HDD).

External HDDs are a pain to deal with because its in the way and might die sooner because of the resistance of the Connector and other stuff. Its not the best way. So I'd prefer an Internal bay. Though I have my consoles like 50cm from me...

 

Quote

The internal 1TB SSD, if accurate, is 100% sufficient for your average gamer. The SSD will likely far outlast the rest of the system before write wear becomes a problem.

Not for long.
If you start with your console, it might be enough for a couple of months. But if you buy a couple of games, the HDD is full faster than you can say Geronimo.

 

Also something to keep in mind: The size of the Game!

Today the most common size of a Playstation 4 Game is around 50GiB. (or rather a bit under that. Somewhere between 40-49GiB). 

 

BUT: THere are already games that are around 100GiB on the Disc!

Its said that Red Dead Redemption 2 is 120GiB on XBOX! (and you might need double the space for installing). Minus OS wich is around 20-120GiB or so (on the XBox One I have like 780GiB or so for Games, on the PS4 around 860 or so with the 1TB Drive. 2TB is 1,77TB of 1,86TB or so Yeah, they use 2¹⁰ between Kilo -> Mega and so instead of 10³)

 

With the next generation I'd expect an average Game Size of 75-100GiB or something in that area. Though probably even more than that.

 

The average size of a Playstation 3 game was mostly 1 DVD (thanks to the 360), though there were some bigger ones that were between 20 (Ni No Kuni) and 30 or 40GiB (God of War Ascention)...

 

And guess what the BD allows at the moment: 128GiB

 

 

[dalekphalm]

4 minutes ago, Stefan Payne said:

You can't replace the HDD with the one from another one IIRC.

You can - at least, you can clone the necessary data. I don't know if you can physically take one HDD from an Xbox One, and toss it into another Xbox One - never tried, never seen anyone else try. But I don't see why that wouldn't work.

4 minutes ago, Stefan Payne said:

Replacing the HDD inside the XBox is a total pain in the ass. While it is possible and in some cases you can even put a 15mm drive inside, its not something the average joe can do.

You need to be good with the screwdriver. You need to know your way with Windows.

All true - while it's fairly easy for a technical person such as myself (and many here) to do, it's 100% unfeasible for a regular casual gamer.

4 minutes ago, Stefan Payne said:

Hopefully they have a replacable SSD at all and don't do the Apple way and solder that shit to the Board. 

Agreed here. I'm hoping for M.2 slot (Bonus points if they include a spare, empty M.2 slot of those adventurous enough to add a 2nd internal drive).

4 minutes ago, Stefan Payne said:

The XBox One is in some areas 2 steps back. IIRC the savegames you could put on a USB Drive in the XBox 360 and/or copy it wherever you want (wich is why I'd recommend getting the 4GB Slim and ram a 250GiB minimum WD HDD in the Drive bay)

The Xbox One allows you to transfer saved games to an external drive (I would assume, but cannot confirm, that this also includes USB flash drives).

4 minutes ago, Stefan Payne said:

External HDDs are a pain to deal with because its in the way and might die sooner because of the resistance of the Connector and other stuff. Its not the best way. So I'd prefer an Internal bay. Though I have my consoles like 50cm from me...

They might die sooner? That's a stretch - let's keep this to realistic differences, not hypothetical ones with small increases in possible failure.

 

Yes, the USB connector could wear out faster on an external drive, but let's be clear. Most external drives far outlive their usefulness, and don't die within a time period that we should worry about.

 

With that in mind, of course internal is better. But having external HDD/SSD capability is a must have for a current gen or next gen console.

4 minutes ago, Stefan Payne said:

Not for long.
If you start with your console, it might be enough for a couple of months. But if you buy a couple of games, the HDD is full faster than you can say Geronimo.

A 1TB drive will be able to hold dozens of games, not a couple. If we assume every game you download is a AAA game (which likely won't be the case), then let's assume average of 50GB per game (this varies wildly - some AAA games are only 20GB. Others are upwards of 100GB). If we assume TB to TiB conversion (note, I will continue to refer to GiB and TiB as GB and TB in all other cases), plus lost space due to the OS, let's round the 1TB SSD down to 900GiB of usabe space, that's roughly 18 50GB games.

4 minutes ago, Stefan Payne said:

Also something to keep in mind: The size of the Game!

Today the most common size of a Playstation 4 Game is around 50GiB. (or rather a bit under that. Somewhere between 40-49GiB). 

Noted above.

4 minutes ago, Stefan Payne said:

BUT: THere are already games that are around 100GiB on the Disc!

Its said that Red Dead Redemption 2 is 120GiB on XBOX! (and you might need double the space for installing). Minus OS wich is around 20-120GiB or so (on the XBox One I have like 780GiB or so for Games, on the PS4 around 860 or so with the 1TB Drive. 2TB is 1,77TB of 1,86TB or so Yeah, they use 2¹⁰ between Kilo -> Mega and so instead of 10³)

Indeed, but 100+GB games are not typical. That might become the trend. It also might not. We have no idea. But since we have external drive capability, you can easily move your less used games off the internal drive onto an External one, and then use the internal SSD for your "primary" games.

4 minutes ago, Stefan Payne said:

With the next generation I'd expect an average Game Size of 75-100GiB or something in that area. Though probably even more than that.

Could be. Entirely speculation.

4 minutes ago, Stefan Payne said:

The average size of a Playstation 3 game was mostly 1 DVD (thanks to the 360), though there were some bigger ones that were between 20 (Ni No Kuni) and 30 or 40GiB (God of War Ascention)...

Some games on Xbox 360 were indeed upwards of 50GB, and were supplied on multiple DVD's. I recall the Mass Effect games were some of them.

4 minutes ago, Stefan Payne said:

And guess what the BD allows at the moment: 128GiB

That's assuming either a UHD 4K Blu-Ray drive, or a Blu-Ray XL drive (technically the same hardware, but not necessarily inter-compatible unless firmware is designed to allow it).

 

Which, for the Xbox, is a near guarantee (One S and One X both have UHD 4K Blu-Ray drives - though I'm not aware of any games that actually use the additional space, since all disks are backwards compatible with the standard Blu-Ray drive from the original Xbox).

 

However, we have no confirmation at all that the "PS5" is going to be able to utilize disks that large. They didn't opt for a UHD Blu-Ray drive on the PS4 Pro, and stuck with a standard (non-XL) Blu-Ray drive instead.

 

I hope that Sony does indeed include a UHD drive, because the added benefit of being able to playback 4K Blu-Rays is definitely an added bonus for home theatre nerds who want actual good quality movies.

[TempestCatto]

10 minutes ago, Tedny said:

yes

At this point, I'm inclined to believe you're either a troll, or you really suck at the English language. We've helped you all we can, there is no hope for the human race.

[CarlBar]

7 hours ago, TempestCatto said:

At this point, I'm inclined to believe you're either a troll, or you really suck at the English language. We've helped you all we can, there is no hope for the human race.

 

If he runs a home server or small business server it might actually be acurratte.

[TempestCatto]

57 minutes ago, CarlBar said:

 

If he runs a home server or small business server it might actually be acurratte.

He's said he's just gaming, at least that's how he's responded. Besides that, we're talking about xbox gaming and drive reliability, nothing to do here with servers (in this particular conversation). So he'd've been out of context here. But I can't even understand half the shit he writes, can you?

 

Also congrats on your 420th post!

[Stefan Payne]

11 hours ago, dalekphalm said:

You can - at least, you can clone the necessary data. I don't know if you can physically take one HDD from an Xbox One, and toss it into another Xbox One

Ah, yes, that is possible as they use Standard NTFS, though the files themselves are encrypted. They don't use a proprietary, encrypted Filesystem like Sony does.

 

Quote

- never tried, never seen anyone else try. But I don't see why that wouldn't work.

Yeah, might actually be possible. But I don't want to try that for various reasons. Including getting a second XBox (HDD)

 

Quote

All true - while it's fairly easy for a technical person such as myself (and many here) to do, it's 100% unfeasible for a regular casual gamer.

I'd not call it easy. I'd say its possible and you can do it reasonably quickly if you're technically versed. However easy is something like the PS3/4 or other consoles.

 

 

Assuming you want a new drive without any old data, it still takes like half an hour or so.

And either a Hot Swap 2,5" HDD or an external USB Solution or you mount it inside the Case.

Then use the Tools/Scripts and copy the OSU1 thingy.

 

 

Quote

Agreed here. I'm hoping for M.2 slot (Bonus points if they include a spare, empty M.2 slot of those adventurous enough to add a 2nd internal drive).

Exactly!

Or add a 2,5" Slot for good old HDD. 7mm would be fine but 15mm preferable.

(7mm -> 2TB max, 15mm -> 4 and 5TB)

 

Quote

The Xbox One allows you to transfer saved games to an external drive (I would assume, but cannot confirm, that this also includes USB flash drives).

I have to look at it again...

But it doesn't have a Tool Storage Managment like the XBox 360 has or any backup funktion.

Have only taken a quick look and I don't use my Xbox One X too much so, it might be possible that there is something somewhere but I haven't found it.

Quote

They might die sooner? That's a stretch - let's keep this to realistic differences, not hypothetical ones with small increases in possible failure.

Well my external 1TB Toshiba died. But it depends on the Situation and so on. 

With an external 3,5" Drive it might be different because its heavier, so less prone to vibration and stuff like that.

Quote

With that in mind, of course internal is better. But having external HDD/SSD capability is a must have for a current gen or next gen console.

Yeah, I'd agree with that. Though you should also be able to replace/upgrade the Internal drive as well.

For example to put a 2TB Drive inside instead of the 1TB.

Sadly 4TB is not possible due to size restrictions with the PS4...

Quote

A 1TB drive will be able to hold dozens of games, not a couple.

Look, with this Gen I'm fine with 1TB for the higher end consoles, 2TB should be able to get into by the user without too much hassle.

For the next gen I'd assume that the Size of the Games will drastically increase for various reasons. Thus its only a couple and not "dozens of games".

 

That statement is true for this gen, wich I also admitted in my last post.

BUT: For the next gen I assume that the average size of the Games increases.

 

Of course not all Games will be 100GiB or more. But for example take God of War (Dad of Boy), Horizon Zero Dawn or Spider-Man, remade for the next generation.

Right now I've taken a look at the size of newer Games, with some (=ALL) DLC:
Spider-Man, Assasin's Creed Origins -> ~75GiB on the Harddrive of the PS4.

 

BUT: I'd expect something like Red Dead 2 Filesize: ~104GiB.

 

So no, I don't expect it to hold a couple of Games...

 

With the ~50-100GiB reserved by System, that leaves around 877GiB or so for Games.

Assuming 75GiB average for Games, that's 11 Games.

Assuming 104GiB average for Games, that's 8 Games.

 

So yeah, a couple, not Dozens.

 

Quote

If we assume every game you download is a AAA game (which likely won't be the case), then let's assume average of 50GB per game (this varies wildly - some AAA games are only 20GB. Others are upwards of 100GB).

The 50GiB number is what we have right now, without any DLC.

BUT there are a couple of Games already that are 50% more with DLC, see above.

And there are a couple of Games with even more than that.

 

See above. 

God of War right now is at around 45GiB or so on Disc

Horizon Zero Dawn around 48GiB or so (with Frozen Wilds)

 

With increased performance and main memory, its safe to assume that the content will take more space, especially if the Games are optimized for an SSD (or SSD Caching), that means that 150GiB for a "simple Game" is totally in reach.

 

So I'd assume that the 1TB then will be equal to 500GiB right now. So a couple of Games, maybe 8. Maybe 4.

 

Quote

If we assume TB to TiB conversion (note, I will continue to refer to GiB and TiB as GB and TB in all other cases), plus lost space due to the OS, let's round the 1TB SSD down to 900GiB of usabe space, that's roughly 18 50GB games.

2 Things: 

a) I used the Space that the Consoles showed and I kinda remember above. Its 877GiB for PS4 and way less than that on XBox One

b) Lets not assume 50GiB because that is the Games we have now...

Though the Step from PS3 -> 4 was enormous and comparable to 2 -> 3.

The Step from 4 to 5 is "minor" compared to that. Still, the size of Games is already increasing with the Last Gen Games. 

 

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Indeed, but 100+GB games are not typical.

Not yet. 50GiB wasn't typical in around 2013 or so. It only is typical in the last 3-4 Years or so.

And it is due to the Size of the Bluray that the console supports that its limited to 50GiB.

 

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That might become the trend. It also might not. We have no idea.

It will become the Trend because you have to do something with the Performance of the Console.

Bigger or higher resolution Textures is one of the Things that will happen...

Quote

Some games on Xbox 360 were indeed upwards of 50GB, and were supplied on multiple DVD's. I recall the Mass Effect games were some of them.

I don't remember them beeing that big.

The biggest I have is Lost Odyssey with 4 Discs.

Final Fantasy 13 is only 3, as does Star Ocean the Last Hope.

Though I don't usually play the "normal Shooter AAA Games".

Quote

That's assuming either a UHD 4K Blu-Ray drive, or a Blu-Ray XL drive (technically the same hardware, but not necessarily inter-compatible unless firmware is designed to allow it).

Yes exactly that is what I'd expect.

BD XL Drives with support up to 128GiB maximum Disc Capacity...

 

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Which, for the Xbox, is a near guarantee (One S and One X both have UHD 4K Blu-Ray drives - though I'm not aware of any games that actually use the additional space,

Because there was the One wich only had a normal BD Drive, so they can't use the higher capacity.

Also it might be possible that 2 normal 50GiB might actually be cheaper than one 100GiB One.

 

The next Problem: you exclude the XBox One Classic Owners. Not good.

But there's a game with 2 Discs: Red Dead Redemption.

 

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However, we have no confirmation at all that the "PS5" is going to be able to utilize disks that large. They didn't opt for a UHD Blu-Ray drive on the PS4 Pro, and stuck with a standard (non-XL) Blu-Ray drive instead.

There is a simple reason for that:
The PS4 has the Drive Electronics mostly on the Motherboard. So replacing it with a UHD or XL Drive might have been a considerable cost. And also there is no point in it as the Games have to be delivered in a normal BD Disc anyway. So its only a small advantage.

 

The XBox One however uses a kinda Standard S-ATA Drive...

 

Quote

I hope that Sony does indeed include a UHD drive, because the added benefit of being able to playback 4K Blu-Rays is definitely an added bonus for home theatre nerds who want actual good quality movies.

I don't agree as the Power Consumption of this Gen Consoles is just too high to be viable as BD Players. The premium ones are around 60-80W with lower loads (=Desktop). So they don't have Power Savings enable.

And with the Price of BD Players coming down...

 

To be blunt: I agree more with Nintendo's Take on Consoles, to see and use them mainly as Game box. 

Sony did kinda that with the PS4.

M$ did the opposite.

 

PS4 was highly sucessful.

XBox ne was not.

[Guest]

15 hours ago, Stefan Payne said:

You can't replace the HDD with the one from another one IIRC.

Replacing the HDD inside the XBox is a total pain in the ass. While it is possible and in some cases you can even put a 15mm drive inside, its not something the average joe can do.

You need to be good with the screwdriver. You need to know your way with Windows.

Hopefully they have a replacable SSD at all and don't do the Apple way and solder that shit to the Board. 

 

The XBox One is in some areas 2 steps back. IIRC the savegames you could put on a USB Drive in the XBox 360 and/or copy it wherever you want (wich is why I'd recommend getting the 4GB Slim and ram a 250GiB minimum WD HDD in the Drive bay)

External HDDs are a pain to deal with because its in the way and might die sooner because of the resistance of the Connector and other stuff. Its not the best way. So I'd prefer an Internal bay. Though I have my consoles like 50cm from me...

 

Not for long.
If you start with your console, it might be enough for a couple of months. But if you buy a couple of games, the HDD is full faster than you can say Geronimo.

 

Also something to keep in mind: The size of the Game!

Today the most common size of a Playstation 4 Game is around 50GiB. (or rather a bit under that. Somewhere between 40-49GiB). 

 

BUT: THere are already games that are around 100GiB on the Disc!

Its said that Red Dead Redemption 2 is 120GiB on XBOX! (and you might need double the space for installing). Minus OS wich is around 20-120GiB or so (on the XBox One I have like 780GiB or so for Games, on the PS4 around 860 or so with the 1TB Drive. 2TB is 1,77TB of 1,86TB or so Yeah, they use 2¹⁰ between Kilo -> Mega and so instead of 10³)

 

With the next generation I'd expect an average Game Size of 75-100GiB or something in that area. Though probably even more than that.

 

The average size of a Playstation 3 game was mostly 1 DVD (thanks to the 360), though there were some bigger ones that were between 20 (Ni No Kuni) and 30 or 40GiB (God of War Ascention)...

 

And guess what the BD allows at the moment: 128GiB

 

 

That’s just insane I think. My house only gets ADSL2 so good luck for me downloading a game, let alone on fiber. 120GB is just getting to be too much, it would just put me off buying a console.

[Stefan Payne]

18 minutes ago, RorzNZ said:

That’s just insane I think. My house only gets ADSL2 so good luck for me downloading a game, let alone on fiber. 120GB is just getting to be too much, it would just put me off buying a console.

Ähm, the physical storage stuff is still alive and going on Console. And still around 50% of the Market or more.

Here the Reason is mostly lazieness and convenience to get the game online. 

And there is no real advantage for you as a consolero to get the game online - at least for the Playstation. For the XBox there is however as you can play the Digital Version of some games on PC as well as Console. The Disc Version not for whatever reason...

 

So you do not have to download the whole game! usually

You just go to a store and buy the disc, put it in the console and use it and install it that way.

To put the Game on a Cardtridge would also be possible but more expensive than an optical disc...

 

That's why I mentioned the 128GiB Disc size...

 

Though it is rumored that the new XBox comes without a disc drive in the smaller version. THAT would be a Problem for you. The other, big one, is not a Problem.

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, Stefan Payne said:

Ähm, the physical storage stuff is still alive and going on Console. And still around 50% of the Market or more.

Here the Reason is mostly lazieness and convenience to get the game online. 

And there is no real advantage for you as a consolero to get the game online - at least for the Playstation. For the XBox there is however as you can play the Digital Version of some games on PC as well as Console. The Disc Version not for whatever reason...

 

So you do not have to download the whole game! usually

You just go to a store and buy the disc, put it in the console and use it and install it that way.

To put the Game on a Cardtridge would also be possible but more expensive than an optical disc...

 

That's why I mentioned the 128GiB Disc size...

 

Though it is rumored that the new XBox comes without a disc drive in the smaller version. THAT would be a Problem for you. The other, big one, is not a Problem.

Yeah but come on its not 2005 I don't want to use disks when the device comes with a 1tb hard drive do I?

[Stefan Payne]

4 minutes ago, RorzNZ said:

Yeah but come on its not 2005 I don't want to use disks when the device comes with a 1tb hard drive do I?

Do you have a better solution that allows you to share the game with a friend or sell it or to use in the woods??

 

The optical disc is still the best solution we have right now. Yes, it might be a bit annoying because you have to change the disc and the console doesn't save the last time you accessed it...

 

BUt its better than to download it, because there were some console stores shut down recently (=Nintendo Wii, first version PSN for the Playstation 2).

 

Personally, I try to get the Disc Version as much as possible in the last couple of months.

 

the ironic thing:
I have more Games on Disc for Playstation 4 than for Playstation 3.

[Dabombinable]

1 hour ago, Stefan Payne said:

Do you have a better solution that allows you to share the game with a friend or sell it or to use in the woods??

 

The optical disc is still the best solution we have right now. Yes, it might be a bit annoying because you have to change the disc and the console doesn't save the last time you accessed it...

 

BUt its better than to download it, because there were some console stores shut down recently (=Nintendo Wii, first version PSN for the Playstation 2).

 

Personally, I try to get the Disc Version as much as possible in the last couple of months.

 

the ironic thing:
I have more Games on Disc for Playstation 4 than for Playstation 3.

That's why I'm against all 8th generation consoles as being more than Bluray players.  Too many games require a substantial download, and if you have poor internet or the servers get shut down, you're SOL.  Had that point driven home when I decided to get my old Xbox out...and all I need to do is plug it in and insert the disc.  Instead of waiting hours (some times days) for downloads on the PS4 before I can play the game.

Plus current consoles wrest even more control away from their owners. My Xbox...well I can have it booted an games launched within minutes, as well as store a substantial library of games on it (250GB HDD...and most games are on single layer discs).

[mr moose]

14 minutes ago, Dabombinable said:

That's why I'm against all 8th generation consoles as being more than Bluray players.  Too many games require a substantial download, and if you have poor internet or the servers get shut down, you're SOL.  Had that point driven home when I decided to get my old Xbox out...and all I need to do is plug it in and insert the disc.  Instead of waiting hours (some times days) for downloads on the PS4 before I can play the game.

Plus current consoles wrest even more control away from their owners. My Xbox...well I can have it booted an games launched within minutes, as well as store a substantial library of games on it (250GB HDD...and most games are on single layer discs).

That used to be the best argument for getting a console over a PC, now it's more or less just personal taste.

[Dabombinable]

26 minutes ago, mr moose said:

That used to be the best argument for getting a console over a PC, now it's more or less just personal taste.

One thing consoles still have: playing BR off them is far easier and more convenient. As for gaming, my friend has switched to using his PS4 controller on his desktop, with it hooked up to a TV.  The changes Sony made have pretty much turned him of consoles, even after owning the PS1, 2  and 3.

[vorticalbox]

On 1/25/2019 at 7:49 AM, ElfFriend said:

It seems unlikely that it'll have decent ray tracing just due to the kind of tech Nvidia had to develop to make it work. Sure you can do ray tracing with compute shaders but it's not gonna be anywhere near what Nvidia has been able to pull off with custom ray tracing and AI cores.

I somewhat remember that Microsoft said when the one launch said that developers could offload things like lighting from the Xbox into azure, i wouldn't be surprised if that is how they would accomplish it.

[CarlBar]

8 hours ago, TempestCatto said:

He's said he's just gaming, at least that's how he's responded. Besides that, we're talking about xbox gaming and drive reliability, nothing to do here with servers (in this particular conversation). So he'd've been out of context here. But I can't even understand half the shit he writes, can you?

 

Also congrats on your 420th post!

 

I tend to like to give people the benefit of the doubt unless they're being seemingly deliberately stupid, then my frustration kicks in.

 

3 hours ago, Stefan Payne said:

Do you have a better solution that allows you to share the game with a friend or sell it or to use in the woods??

 

The optical disc is still the best solution we have right now. Yes, it might be a bit annoying because you have to change the disc and the console doesn't save the last time you accessed it...

 

BUt its better than to download it, because there were some console stores shut down recently (=Nintendo Wii, first version PSN for the Playstation 2).

 

Personally, I try to get the Disc Version as much as possible in the last couple of months.

 

the ironic thing:
I have more Games on Disc for Playstation 4 than for Playstation 3.

 

I don't know if it's still true but i know a few years ago COnsole versions of games that were ported from PC to console (rather than the other way around), tended to be waaaay larger than the PC version.

[Stefan Payne]

5 hours ago, CarlBar said:

I don't know if it's still true but i know a few years ago COnsole versions of games that were ported from PC to console (rather than the other way around), tended to be waaaay larger than the PC version.

I really don't know where you did get that. And if it was done, the people responsible should get fired.

It might be possible however that the code needed for the Console might have been different and thus larger in general.

Another possibility is that the content was just larger because it was possible (ie Final Fantasy 13 wich had higher quality videos on the PS3 Version, allegedly). 

 

Anyway, today the Games are made primarily for the consoles for various reasons (for example they don't sell that well on PC, allegedly)...

And the Code doesn't need to be as different as before because the main Architecture (AMD64 CPU with AMD GPU) is more similar than PC than previous generations...

 

And due to the Architecture and other stuff, they still can use Optical drives and I doubt that the PS5 will come without it. With M$ its possible and there are rumors about the Opt. Drive less Console around...

[Belgarathian]

I'm calling bluff... 12TF GPU and 1TB NVMe SSD inside a package <$600.

 

Also ray tracing is a DX12 API that Nvidia run on their RT cores but isn't restricted to Nvidia and will run on almost anything, albeit poorly.

[CarlBar]

3 hours ago, Stefan Payne said:

I really don't know where you did get that. And if it was done, the people responsible should get fired.

It might be possible however that the code needed for the Console might have been different and thus larger in general.

Another possibility is that the content was just larger because it was possible (ie Final Fantasy 13 wich had higher quality videos on the PS3 Version, allegedly). 

 

Anyway, today the Games are made primarily for the consoles for various reasons (for example they don't sell that well on PC, allegedly)...

And the Code doesn't need to be as different as before because the main Architecture (AMD64 CPU with AMD GPU) is more similar than PC than previous generations...

 

And due to the Architecture and other stuff, they still can use Optical drives and I doubt that the PS5 will come without it. With M$ its possible and there are rumors about the Opt. Drive less Console around...

 

It's to do with how consoles handled accessing game assets, you'd find assets duplicated on console that weren't on PC. It's apparently a holdover from days when games played entirely from optical media and to speed access speed assets would be duplicated if it prevented extensive changes in disc read position. Apparently for whatever reasons it's still done in a lot of cases even after the move to internal storage.

[Beskamir]

10 hours ago, vorticalbox said:

I somewhat remember that Microsoft said when the one launch said that developers could offload things like lighting from the Xbox into azure, i wouldn't be surprised if that is how they would accomplish it.

Hmmm that could be possible given ray tracing is being used as a secondary for lighting and people probably wouldn't mind some latency but I'm still skeptical of it actually working.

[dalekphalm]

2 hours ago, ElfFriend said:

Hmmm that could be possible given ray tracing is being used as a secondary for lighting and people probably wouldn't mind some latency but I'm still skeptical of it actually working.

Assuming the 12TFLOPS figure is accurate, we could definitely see on-chip Ray Tracing (RT), if AMD's NAVI architecture has some purpose built cores that are good at RT.

 

Consider that 12TFLOPS is around Vega 64 territory.

[spartaman64]

yep i didnt need playable fps anyways who needs that when you can have shiny stuff. 

[Sauron]

Hmmm, I wonder how they'll get decent rt performance while keeping the cost low... or are we looking at another ps3?