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Could Nvidia be skipping to 7nm for the GTX 11 series?

Questycasos

https://www.pcgamesn.com/nvidia-graphics-card-skip-12nm-7nm

 

Our article here starts off by addressing the recent WccfTech "rumors" in a similar manner to how I imagine most of us did. 

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The new GTX 1170 specs have come from the ever-reliable WCCFTech, and seems to be formed from as much speculation and guesswork as the GTX 1180 ‘leak’ that seemed to get everyone all excited last week. What the WCCFTech piece is essentially saying is that the GTX 1170 is going to be... a graphics card. And they then typed out some numbers plucked from the air above their keyboard.

 

They don’t seem to have any real concrete information, but are still betting on the Nvidia Turing rumour delivering a 12nm GT104 GPU that measures around 400mm2 and packs in 2,688 CUDA cores.

 

It’ll also have somewhere between 8GB and 16GB of 12Gbps GDDR6 memory (really, at those prices?!), some sort of loose guess at a vague base frequency, which has basically cribbed from the current Pascal cards, and the same for boost clock speed. Oh, and a TDP of between 140 and 160W. My, there’s a lot of margin for error built into these leaks…

 

All well and good, but onto the real point.

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WCCFTech, of course, can attribute no source to these numbers, just that they were provided specifically to them. Someone as irked by this baseless speculation as I is a new poster on the Overclockers UK forum with the name Nv Gfx Prgmr (seems 100% legit).

 

They rail against such rumour mill sites, and say that the supposedly leaked specs are completely false. Good for him.

He does then go and ruin it all with his own baseless speculation, claiming to know that there will be no new 12nm gaming cards released this year and that “Nvidia's new gaming GPUs will be on 7nm and their current release window is set for late November.” 

 

If that sounds iffy to you, you aren't the only one.

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As much as that is either blatant under-the-bridge trollism, or rumour-mongering of the highest order, it’s still not necessarily beyond the realms of possibility for Nvidia to skip 12nm in favour of 7nm for their next generation of gaming graphics cards. Especially as, by the end of the year, they will have essentially skipped an entire generation of gaming GPUs by holding onto Pascal for so very long.

Though the article attempts to make some case for this.

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It might seem implausible, but hear me out.

 

TSMC, the likely manufacturers of Nvidia’s graphics silicon, have already started volume production of 7nm processors, as C. C. Wei, TSMC President told financial analysts last month, “More than 50 products tape-outs has [sic] been planned by end of this year,” he says, “from applications across mobile, server CPU, network processor, gaming, GPU, PGA, cryptocurrency, automotive and AI. Our 7nm is already in volume production.”

 

I'm going to TL;DR here, rather than quote the whole article.

 

Basically, AMD has already shown off 7nm products to be released in the near future, and this might spur Nvidia into skipping to the new node rather than be on a "last generation" node. The article, however notes that releasing a new architecture on a new node has had fairly shaky results in the past (pointing to the GTX 480), but since Turing is based on Volta, an already somewhat mature architecture, it might not be so bad.

 

But the article ends on a point that I agree with.

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As much as it’s all baseless speculation right now (sorry, Nv Gfx Prgmr), skipping a short-lived 12nm GPU, in favour of a 7nm design that could last another two years or more, does make a lot of sense. Will they do it? Right now, who knows. Realistically, it's unlikely, the timing is possibly too tight, and it's probably more of a gamble than Nvidia needs to make right now. But sadly we're probably not going to find out for sure until August/September time at the earliest. Gamescom maybe?

While it sounds interesting, it is very unlikely (imo, downright implausible) but who knows, maybe Nvidia will pull a rabbit out of their hat.

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I just want Novideo to pull their collective thumb out of their ass and drop something already. Pascal is a little long in the tooth and overly-milked.

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1 minute ago, tmcclelland455 said:

I just want Novideo to pull their collective thumb out of their ass and drop something already. Pascal is a little long in the tooth and overly-milked.

the thing is, they don't really need to deliver something impressive with their new gen. ayyMD isn't exactly going to deliver the next Titan V, and their 1080Ti's still reign supreme in the enthusiast market.

they can probably get away with a minor bump in performance to sell more cards, but right now they have the enthusiast space in a choke hold.

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1 minute ago, RollinLower said:

the thing is, they don't really need to deliver something impressive with their new gen. ayyMD isn't exactly going to deliver the next Titan V, and their 1080Ti's still reign supreme in the enthusiast market.

they can probably get away with a minor bump in performance to sell more cards, but right now they have the enthusiast space in a choke hold.

and by "have enthusiast space in a choke hold" you mean 'have a competitor that's literally sitting on it's ass not coming close to competing'.

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I've thought on this in the past here.

There is no business case to release a new line of GPUs when your product is selling out as fast as you can make it and your competitions performance is a generation behind (arguably).

Things are starting to cool with the mining buyers and prices are returning to normal, but stock of GPUs are still low and look to stay that way throughout summer as gamers buy up supplies at invoice prices.

They will eventually have to release something new, but a holiday season release makes sense to me.

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Not sure if nV's 11 series cards will be on 7 nm, but considering that both AMD and nV use TSMC for their fab-ing, I could see them both releasing 7 nm GPU dies next year.  Maybe nV will try to push out this year to be ahead in the game or they could refresh next year around the same time that AMD plans to launch their next GPU series.

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28nm - Kepler

28nm - Maxwell

16nm - Pascal

12nm - Volta (compute only)

7nm - Turing?

It would be exceedingly strange for Nvidia to update the node for the third time in a row. Generally GPUs remained one node behind CPUs and SOCs due to their size so a 7nm GPU would be rather expensive to produce.

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3 hours ago, RollinLower said:

the thing is, they don't really need to deliver something impressive with their new gen. ayyMD isn't exactly going to deliver the next Titan V, and their 1080Ti's still reign supreme in the enthusiast market.

they can probably get away with a minor bump in performance to sell more cards, but right now they have the enthusiast space in a choke hold.

With that logic, Intel shouldn't have bothered "innovating" after Haswell since AMD did fuckall in that time.

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11 minutes ago, tmcclelland455 said:

With that logic, Intel shouldn't have bothered "innovating" after Haswell since AMD did fuckall in that time.

well to be honest they barely did anyway :P 

but you're right! tough obviously they have to realease something, so when in the top spot of the food chain so to speak, they just release smaller improvements than they probably could.

saves money, increases profit. why not?

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4 hours ago, RollinLower said:

the thing is, they don't really need to deliver something impressive with their new gen. ayyMD isn't exactly going to deliver the next Titan V, and their 1080Ti's still reign supreme in the enthusiast market.

they can probably get away with a minor bump in performance to sell more cards, but right now they have the enthusiast space in a choke hold.

I think you're looking at this wrong. AMD is almost irrelevant in the gaming gpu market now. They need to convince Nvidia owners to upgrade. I wanted to upgrade my GTX 970 last year but wasn't going to pay $400 for a 1070. Now a new architecture? I'd probably drop $450 this year on something that could give the jump we got from Maxwell over Kepler.

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10 minutes ago, SteveGrabowski0 said:

I think you're looking at this wrong. AMD is almost irrelevant in the gaming gpu market now. They need to convince Nvidia owners to upgrade. I wanted to upgrade my GTX 970 last year but wasn't going to pay $400 for a 1070. Now a new architecture? I'd probably drop $450 this year on something that could give the jump we got from Maxwell over Kepler.

The gap between kepler and maxwell is the same gap between maxwell and pascal...


780ti = 970

980ti = 1070

 

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1 minute ago, Armakar said:

The gap between kepler and maxwell is the same gap between maxwell and pascal...


780ti = 970

980ti = 1070

 

I know, but most people aren't going to upgrade each generation. I was bringing up Maxwell because it was such a large bump despite not corresponding to a node shrink.

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5 hours ago, Curufinwe_wins said:

and by "have enthusiast space in a choke hold" you mean 'have a competitor that's literally sitting on it's ass not coming close to competing'.

Kind of hard to have the R&D budget to compete when you have no mind share and gamers aren't buying your cards. It's a negative feedback loop. Not to berate nVIDIA for being successful or anything, but it's the market's fault just as much as AMD's that they're not doing nearly as well.

 

Maybe AMD will catch nVIDIA with a Radeon version of Ryzen if nVIDIA becomes as complacent as Intel has. Maybe a government will shovel money at AMD to stimulate competition if things get bad enough.

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3 minutes ago, SteveGrabowski0 said:

I know, but most people aren't going to upgrade each generation. I was bringing up Maxwell because it was such a large bump despite not corresponding to a node shrink.

I'll upgrade, just praying something comes that can handle 1440p...  my 1080Ti can't handle 1440p 165hz for shit (on big titles anyway), feel bad for the people playing at 4k lol

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Wait so people are speculating that due to all of our recent info being speculation we are going to not be seeing new Nvidia GPUs for a while and then speculated a reason why...........ok why would the lack of credible info be any different than any other launch xD

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I don't think we will see high performance chips on 7nm until 2019 from anyone. Only exception could be high end pro cards like Tesla V with low yields. So expect 12nm.

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At the end of the day transistor size matters not, performance does.

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7 hours ago, TheGlenlivet said:

I've thought on this in the past here.

There is no business case to release a new line of GPUs when your product is selling out as fast as you can make it and your competitions performance is a generation behind (arguably).

Things are starting to cool with the mining buyers and prices are returning to normal, but stock of GPUs are still low and look to stay that way throughout summer as gamers buy up supplies at invoice prices.

They will eventually have to release something new, but a holiday season release makes sense to me.

From a business sense, it would probably make sense to release a new 12nm gaming card to be the new "halo" gaming card (a 1090 or something of the sort) priced at $1200 as well as Quadros based on said hypothetical gpu, and keep the rest of the lineup as is (unchanged pricing) until 7nm is ready, or AMD is competitive.

 

It certainly wouldn't make much sense to roll out 12nm across the entire lineup under the current competitive (or lack thereof) environment.

 

Here's hoping the rumours of an Intel dGPU are true. Maybe (from a delusional optimistic point of view) Intel's R&D has gone into GPUs rather than CPUs?

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42 minutes ago, Zodiark1593 said:

Here's hoping the rumours of an Intel dGPU are true. Maybe (from a delusional optimistic point of view) Intel's R&D has gone into GPUs rather than CPUs?

For the last 8 years, must be one amazing gpu.

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6 minutes ago, leadeater said:

For the last 8 years, must be one amazing gpu.

Should I have bolded the "delusional" bit? :P

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My camera lens sees the present…

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13 minutes ago, Starelementpoke said:

It's like a DBZ episode. They were charging up that entire time. 

Well, the entirety of the PC world can be compared to DBZ. What was considered to be a very powerful desktop computer some ten years ago is pretty much child's play for today's phones. The compute power just keeps climbing.

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14 minutes ago, Zodiark1593 said:

Well, the entirety of the PC world can be compared to DBZ. What was considered to be a very powerful desktop computer some ten years ago is pretty much child's play for today's phones. The compute power just keeps climbing.

 

27 minutes ago, Starelementpoke said:

It's like a DBZ episode. They were charging up that entire time. 

 

 

SLI = Fusion? xD

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