Microsoft might want to be making Windows 12 a subscription OS

[Avus]

Summary

While this has been a hunch for a while among the Windows enthusiast community, a new leak seems to be further providing somewhat solidifying evidence that it could indeed be the case, that Microsoft's next-gen OS, casually referred to as Windows 12, could be a subscription-based OS

 

Quotes

Quote

German media outlet Deskmodder spotted several such subscription-related entries in the INI configuration file of the Canary channel build when it was compared with the Windows 11 23H2 Release Preview build using WinMerge. You can view them in the image below.

 

 

My thoughts

If Windows subscription is only meaning Windows activation, then i am ok using Windows WITHOUT activation. If I can't use Windows AT ALL without paying M$ for the rest of my life then I will leave Windows.

I am already grown out of MS Office (10+ years ago) for my personal use and for my own business. LibreOffice and Google Doc basically can cover all my documents need.

GAMING is the only reason why I still stay with Windows. But with Valve (Steam) keep supporting and developing in Linux, I have no problem to give up a few games to just gaming on Linux.

All my NAS and servers are Debian based.
All my computers older than 7 years old are using Linux (Ubuntu/Debian), they just run better and will always get OS updates.

 

Sources

https://www.neowin.net/news/microsoft-might-want-to-be-making-windows-12-a-subscription-os-suggests-leak/

 

[StDragon]

I seriously doubt this would be for the consumer market. Almost certainly to be rolled into the Microsoft 365 Enterprise subscription as a Windows Enterprise license paid annually. 

[manikyath]

so.. because some ini file contains some wording about subscriptions, you're concluding that win12 might be only subscription based licensing?

 

have you considered how this would work for the likes of HP and dell? would they now have to ship their system with an OOBE where you give money to microsoft?

 

IMO this is likely part of M365 as a "fully integrated microsoft experience", allowing the OS to more dynamically toggle features as the subscription is active. (essentially replacing the "upgrade" to enterprise.)

[hishnash]

would not surprise me at all.  For a few years already MS has been pushing industry partners (makers of pro softer like CAD and other tooling) to priotize windows365 (this is like Xbox Game Pass Azure streaming but for windows desktop apps).  MS strongly wants to move to a model were uses pay per month to access high end HW that MS have in azure and users local machines are more or less thin clients. 

Moving to windows being subscription based and locking down almost all `pro` windows features on that sub makes sense as it will prepare users for the future migration to cloud side for all high end HW operations. 

[hishnash]

1 minute ago, manikyath said:

 

 

have you considered how this would work for the likes of HP and dell? would they now have to ship their system with an OOBE where you give money to microsoft?

just like how these provides ship with one year of some anti virus etc  

When that year expires all the pro features of windows turn off and MS prompts you to subscribe. 

[manikyath]

6 minutes ago, hishnash said:

just like how these provides ship with one year of some anti virus etc  

When that year expires all the pro features of windows turn off and MS prompts you to subscribe. 

i somehow dont think this would go over well with regulatory bodies... "insert money to keep using the device you paid money for".

[TheLANguy]

3 minutes ago, manikyath said:

i somehow dont think this would go over well with regulatory bodies... "insert money to keep using the device you paid money for".

Have you heard about smart home devices?

[manikyath]

1 minute ago, TheLANguy said:

Have you heard about smart home devices?

have you heard about totally different market for which there is no 30 years of history to show it can be done without a subscription service?

 

regulators dont understand tech, but they understand that if it worked before, it should still be able to work that way.

 

and - microsoft has *NO* reason to make windows a monthly service for anyone except the people for which they have already been doing so for YEARS.

[hishnash]

8 minutes ago, manikyath said:

i somehow dont think this would go over well with regulatory bodies... "insert money to keep using the device you paid money for".

Given that all OEM laptops these days are sold with 1 year of X and Y... you might get office for 1 year, I have even seen Adobe creative 3 months sub included in laptop prices I don't think there would be any issue.

As long as the laptop is marketed 1 Years Windows 12 Pro or somthing then this is just the same and there would not be any issue. 

[Heats with Nvidia]

6 minutes ago, TheLANguy said:

Have you heard about smart home devices?

That is one of the reasons i don`t have a single one of them in my house and will only ever use the open source versions.

 

43 minutes ago, Avus said:

Summary

While this has been a hunch for a while among the Windows enthusiast community, a new leak seems to be further providing somewhat solidifying evidence that it could indeed be the case, that Microsoft's next-gen OS, casually referred to as Windows 12, could be a subscription-based OS

 

I really hope so, so i can finally make the switch back to not having a machine with Windows at all, because if this is unpopular enough it might drive Linux adoption and support. Although its unlikely, one can dream.

[hishnash]

1 minute ago, manikyath said:

and - microsoft has *NO* reason to make windows a monthly service for anyone except the people for which they have already been doing so for YEARS.

Of cource they have a reason to make it a subscription, investors much much prefure renveue that is in the recurring revenue bucket in your report since this revenue is not effected as much by spikes and dips of the ecosystem it just (in theory) goes up and up. 

[manikyath]

Just now, hishnash said:

Given that all OEM laptops these days are sold with 1 year of X and Y... you might get office for 1 year, I have even seen Adobe creative 3 months sub included in laptop prices I don't think there would be any issue.

As long as the laptop is marketed 1 Years Windows 12 Pro or somthing then this is just the same and there would not be any issue. 

but why would they give you a year of pro in the first place? windows subscriptions arent new, they have no reason to pull them into the home space.

 

they want you to try office, so you feel inclined to keep it... but you're already 'trying' windows either way...

[TheLANguy]

1 minute ago, manikyath said:

regulators dont understand tech, but they understand that if it worked before, it should still be able to work that way.

I completely agree with that! I wish they did.

[hishnash]

3 minutes ago, manikyath said:

have you heard about totally different market for which there is no 30 years of history to show it can be done without a subscription service?

 

I would say for the last 30 years OEMs have been selling devices with pre-installed features that have a limited time window, windows Pro is not differnt to Avast or Noton. You can still boot your system without it, it is just a load of extra features, for a consumer that is used to MS office and then 1 year after purchase they need to subscribe to office365 this is not differnt from one year after purchase needing to subscribe to set your desktop background etc 

[manikyath]

1 minute ago, hishnash said:

Of cource they have a reason to make it a subscription, investors much much prefure renveue that is in the recurring revenue bucket in your report since this revenue is not effected as much by spikes and dips of the ecosystem it just (in theory) goes up and up. 

are you assuming that consumers buying windows licenses is any notable segment of the value of windows?

[Heats with Nvidia]

4 minutes ago, hishnash said:

Of cource they have a reason to make it a subscription, investors much much prefure renveue that is in the recurring revenue bucket in your report since this revenue is not effected as much by spikes and dips of the ecosystem it just (in theory) goes up and up. 

Until it goes down and down... And i really hope

 

2 minutes ago, hishnash said:

I would say for the last 30 years OEMs have been selling devices with pre-installed features that have a limited time window, windows Pro is not differnt to Avast or Noton. You can still boot your system without it, it is just a load of extra features, for a consumer that is used to MS office and then 1 year after purchase they need to subscribe to office365 this is not differnt from one year after purchase needing to subscribe to set your desktop background etc 

Has ANYONE EVER subscribed to these? To be precise, i mean Norton and Avast.

[hishnash]

1 minute ago, manikyath said:

but why would they give you a year of pro in the first place? windows subscriptions arent new, they have no reason to pull them into the home space.

 

they want you to try office, so you feel inclined to keep it... but you're already 'trying' windows either way...

Your not trying windows Pro through are you?   These are additional features ontop of the base windows, laptop vendors like to include it in spec sheets and having a 1 year trail might not even cost them anything as MS will want to use it to push users to subscribe.  (a good number at the end of the year would subscribe just as many do for Norton etc) 

[hishnash]

2 minutes ago, manikyath said:

are you assuming that consumers buying windows licenses is any notable segment of the value of windows?

It's not massive but it's a segment of the market that investors expect MS to make money from. 

[hishnash]

2 minutes ago, Heats with Nvidia said:

Has ANYONE EVER subscribed to these?

They would not be included if people did not end up subscribing.  I believe many of them even pay OEMs to include the trail so there much be a good enough conversion rate. Companies do not just throw money away. 

think of the non-tec-savy consumer who gets a prompt from an app that was there when they purchased so in thier eyes it is a ligit app not a scam.  They have been warned about scams but this is not a scam and it says they need to pay to keep there device secure.. for the avg user this is not a stupid thing to do, after all they accept that if they installed a security system in thier house they would need to pay a sub for that so how is that different for the computer?   

I would not be surprised at all (based on how MS charge more for security features in azure) for MS to move some of windows security things like defender to the paid subscription. 

[manikyath]

Just now, hishnash said:

I would say for the last 30 years OEMs have been selling devices with pre-installed features that have a limited time window, windows Pro is not differnt to Avast or Noton. You can still boot your system without it, it is just a load of extra features, for a consumer that is used to MS office and then 1 year after purchase they need to subscribe to office365 this is not differnt from one year after purchase needing to subscribe to set your desktop background etc 

here's the thing.. old people like to have their desktop wallpaper set to an image of their grandchildren. making the ability to set a wallpaper on a walmart special craptop a subscription fee service "surprise" one year down the line will outrage every old fart in parliament worldwide.

 

it makes no sense to cut into the "home" features of windows, if the enterprise market is craving the subscription model to be more integrated into their devices.

 

1 minute ago, hishnash said:

Your not trying windows Pro through are you?   These are additional features ontop of the base windows, laptop vendors like to include it in spec sheets and having a 1 year trail might not even cost them anything as MS will want to use it to push users to subscribe.  (a good number at the end of the year would subscribe just as many do for Norton etc) 

explain like i'm 87 why i need windows pro, you have 10 words of space on a marketing banner.

[Heats with Nvidia]

2 minutes ago, hishnash said:

They would not be included if people did not end up subscribing.  I believe many of them even pay OEMs to include the trail so there much be a good enough conversion rate. Companies do not just throw money away. 

I actually think the conversion rate is more like that of mail spam. It costs almost nothing to include it and is worth it, if you find one idiot every 10.000 users or something like that.

[hishnash]

1 minute ago, manikyath said:

explain like i'm 87 why i need windows pro, you have 10 words of space on a marketing banner.

Your computer it telling you that you need to subscribe, you trust your computer is not a scam, MS bundle some windows defender and other `safety` features within his and easy to sell. "Subscribe to continue to keep your computer save and secure" 

[hishnash]

3 minutes ago, Heats with Nvidia said:

I actually think the conversion rate is more like that of mail spam. It costs almost nothing to include it and is worth it, if you find one idiot every 10.000 users or something like that.

I have seen a good number of machines from regular consumer (not young tec-savy users) with Norton and when asked they said "That came with it" ... the users have subscribed. 

[manikyath]

3 minutes ago, hishnash said:

our computer it telling you that you need to subscribe, you trust your computer is not a scam

does "antitrust lawsuit" ring a bell?

maybe "dark patterns" does?

[Heats with Nvidia]

7 minutes ago, hishnash said:

I have seen a good number of machines from regular consumer (not young tec-savy users) with Norton and when asked they said "That came with it" ... the users have subscribed. 

I would have never thought that, even on the machines of the friends of my mother, which is not really a tech-savvy crowd and most of them are not exactly young, i have never seen these programs subscribed. Because they all know the first rule of using a computer. It is:

 

"NEVER enter your data or pay money if they don`t need it to ship something to you or it`s something you wanted to subscribe to on your own. EVERYTHING else is a scam, even if your computer tells you otherwise. "

 

That worked surprisingly well even with the elderly.