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Global chip shortage: Supply chain hoarding now a factor, says TSMC chief

Gerardo Buenrostro
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Global chip shortage: Supply chain hoarding now a factor, says TSMC chief

In an interview for Time, TSMC Chairman Mark Liu, suggested that the global chip shortage is now being exacerbated by dealers stockpiling chips “who-knows-where in the supply chain”.

 

Quotes

Quote

 there are people definitely accumulating chips who-knows-where in the supply chain - Mark Liu

 

My thoughts

This again is bad news for anyone who wants or needs to get their hands on any new (or by trickle down, used) piece of technology, name it video card, car or any in between. And this extra variable of why the shortage exists is even harder to solve because it deepens speculative behavior. 

 

In other markets commodities have laws intended to stop speculative hoarding and other similar behavior. Lets see if regulations need to be taken to try to stop or disincentivize this practice.

 

Sources

 Global chip shortage: Supply chain hoarding now a factor, says TSMC chief

Inside the Taiwan Firm That Makes the World’s Tech Run

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Samsung got caught doing this a couple years ago but with DRAM I think. I'm also a bit skeptical as my company is struggling with supply internally unless the hoarding is at the very top level at the fabs. It'll all come crashing down in 6 months when the investigation comes out lmao

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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Well, that's- That's interesting tho maybe not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

 

"A high ideal missed by a little, is far better than low ideal that is achievable, yet far less effective"

 

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This makes absolutely zero sense, why would anybody down the chain from TSMC want to stockpile hardware they brought during a shortage at increased prices? The only way forward is for them to lose money as supply returns and prices normalise.

 

Edit - I suppose unless they're playing the short term market with a huge risk they'll hold for too long and miss selling the peak.

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25 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

This makes absolutely zero sense, why would anybody down the chain from TSMC want to stockpile hardware they brought during a shortage at increased prices? The only way forward is for them to lose money as supply returns and prices normalise.

 

Edit - I suppose unless they're playing the short term market with a huge risk they'll hold for too long and miss selling the peak.

To prevent price decreases? 🤷‍♂️

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29 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

This makes absolutely zero sense, why would anybody down the chain from TSMC want to stockpile hardware they brought during a shortage at increased prices? The only way forward is for them to lose money as supply returns and prices normalise.

 

Edit - I suppose unless they're playing the short term market with a huge risk they'll hold for too long and miss selling the peak.

My guess would be that it's a bet that at some point in the future they won't be able to secure manufacturing capacity, and by stockpiling chips while they're able to secure that capacity they can smooth out their supply. Unless your business is built for it, big peaks and dips in revenue are difficult to deal with.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

 

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8 minutes ago, BobVonBob said:

My guess would be that it's a bet that at some point in the future they won't be able to secure manufacturing capacity, and by stockpiling chips while they're able to secure that capacity they can smooth out their supply. Unless your business is built for it, big peaks and dips in revenue are difficult to deal with.

So basically you're saying Apple then. I mean, they're the only ones buying in volumes big enough to be able to sit on product, still meet their own products demand and not go bankrupt.

 

Kind of makes sense TBH, Apple did buy like 70% of TSMCs total ouput for this year, they've probably bought twice what they actually needed so next year they don't have to fight with literally everyone else for manufacturing space.

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3 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

So basically you're saying Apple then. I mean, they're the only ones buying in volumes big enough to be able to sit on product, still meet their own products demand and not go bankrupt.

 

Kind of makes sense TBH, Apple did buy like 70% of TSMCs total ouput for this year, they've probably bought twice what they actually needed so next year they don't have to fight with literally everyone else for manufacturing space.

Not at all. Many companies are capable of making deals like this and sitting on product. Under normal circumstances they don't because it's less profitable, but in this case less profit is preferable to not having product to sell.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

 

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15 minutes ago, BobVonBob said:

Not at all. Many companies are capable of making deals like this and sitting on product. Under normal circumstances they don't because it's less profitable, but in this case less profit is preferable to not having product to sell.

Fair enough, my issue isn't with other companies ability to pull it off though, my issue is that the extra capacity just isn't there for anyone except Apple...

 

https://wccftech.com/apple-secured-80-tsmc-5nm-production-capacity-2021/

 

Apple are buying 80% of TSMCs total output on the most current node that's in volume production. Sure TSMC will be fabbing (limited) stuff on 7/8nm and maybe even 10nm but right now all the big names want 5nm and Apple bought it all in December 2020.

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1 hour ago, Master Disaster said:

Fair enough, my issue isn't with other companies ability to pull it off though, my issue is that the extra capacity just isn't there for anyone except Apple...

 

https://wccftech.com/apple-secured-80-tsmc-5nm-production-capacity-2021/

 

Apple are buying 80% of TSMCs total output on the most current node that's in volume production. Sure TSMC will be fabbing (limited) stuff on 7/8nm and maybe even 10nm but right now all the big names want 5nm and Apple bought it all in December 2020.

The only other one I can think of that's a big TSMC customer is AMD. Maybe they are hoarding? 

 

Or maybe they aren't talking about cutting edge nodes? There are plenty of companies using older nodes for stuff. 

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1 hour ago, StDragon said:

The only chips I hoard are Doritos.

You're doing it wrong, Doritos are for eating 🤪

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1 minute ago, LAwLz said:

The only other one I can think of that's a big TSMC customer is AMD. Maybe they are hoarding? 

 

Or maybe they aren't talking about cutting edge nodes? There are plenty of companies using older nodes for stuff. 

I mean yeah, I'm 100% speculating and it could be someone else for sure.

 

We should still blame Apple though, or Facebook 🤔

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45 minutes ago, LAwLz said:

The only other one I can think of that's a big TSMC customer is AMD. Maybe they are hoarding? 

 

Or maybe they aren't talking about cutting edge nodes? There are plenty of companies using older nodes for stuff. 

I can say almost certainly AMD is not hoarding anything, they keep pushing out as many GPUS and APUs as they can't and it still under supply. CPUs for consumers and small buys are okay but large amounts for data centers are a few months out.

 

I assume they aren't talking about major chips but stuff like powerIC, and other small IC.

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PSU Tier List      Motherboard Tier List     SSD Tier List     How to get PC parts cheap    HP probook 445R G6 review

 

"Stupidity is like trying to find a limit of a constant. You are never truly smart in something, just less stupid."

Camera Gear: X-S10, 16-80 F4, 60D, 24-105 F4, 50mm F1.4, Helios44-m, 2 Cos-11D lavs

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Posted
1 hour ago, GDRRiley said:

I can say almost certainly AMD is not hoarding anything, they keep pushing out as many GPUS and APUs as they can't and it still under supply. CPUs for consumers and small buys are okay but large amounts for data centers are a few months out.

 

I assume they aren't talking about major chips but stuff like powerIC, and other small IC.

Doesn't help one of the HPE (well contracted factory) factories got shutdown recently due to pollution violations. We've got servers supposed to be delivered weeks ago still not here then last week we get told everything is now held up because the factory is closed for now.

 

So there's at least some stuff "hoarded" in that factory while it's close heh.

 

Argh I just want my servers.

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2 minutes ago, leadeater said:

Doesn't help one of the HPE (well contracted factory) factories got shutdown recently due to pollution violations. We've got servers supposed to be delivered weeks ago still not here then last week we get told everything is now held up because the factory is closed for now.

 

So there's at least some stuff "hoarded" in that factory while it's close heh.

 

Argh I just want my servers.

Pay any attention to what's going on in the Pacific today?

Look, I'll just say this - All of these issues highlight the need for decentralization of fabrication around the world.

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1 minute ago, StDragon said:

Pay any attention to what's going on in the Pacific today?

Where do you think NZ is located 😉 🙃

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1 hour ago, leadeater said:

Doesn't help one of the HPE (well contracted factory) factories got shutdown recently due to pollution violations. We've got servers supposed to be delivered weeks ago still not here then last week we get told everything is now held up because the factory is closed for now.

 

So there's at least some stuff "hoarded" in that factory while it's close heh.

 

Argh I just want my servers.

our stuff comes out of their NY state plant.

oh you want your servers, I want my CPU nodes already. We got rank pulled and someone above us took all of ours and ordered more.

Good luck, Have fun, Build PC, and have a last gen console for use once a year. I should answer most of the time between 9 to 3 PST

NightHawk 3.0: R7 5700x @, B550A vision D, H105, 2x32gb Oloy 3600, Sapphire RX 6700XT  Nitro+, Corsair RM750X, 500 gb 850 evo, 2tb rocket and 5tb Toshiba x300, 2x 6TB WD Black W10 all in a 750D airflow.
GF PC: (nighthawk 2.0): R7 2700x, B450m vision D, 4x8gb Geli 2933, Strix GTX970, CX650M RGB, Obsidian 350D

Skunkworks: R5 3500U, 16gb, 500gb Adata XPG 6000 lite, Vega 8. HP probook G455R G6 Ubuntu 20. LTS

Condor (MC server): 6600K, z170m plus, 16gb corsair vengeance LPX, samsung 750 evo, EVGA BR 450.

Spirt  (NAS) ASUS Z9PR-D12, 2x E5 2620V2, 8x4gb, 24 3tb HDD. F80 800gb cache, trueNAS, 2x12disk raid Z3 stripped

PSU Tier List      Motherboard Tier List     SSD Tier List     How to get PC parts cheap    HP probook 445R G6 review

 

"Stupidity is like trying to find a limit of a constant. You are never truly smart in something, just less stupid."

Camera Gear: X-S10, 16-80 F4, 60D, 24-105 F4, 50mm F1.4, Helios44-m, 2 Cos-11D lavs

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1 hour ago, GDRRiley said:

We got rank pulled and someone above us took all of ours and ordered more.

Wasn't me... I think 2 is slightly fewer than your order lol

 

 

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41 minutes ago, leadeater said:

Wasn't me... I think 2 is slightly fewer than your order lol

 

 

I don't really understand what Chip Shortage means. 
  > Foxconn companies in Mexico have their workers full schedule with facemask and face protector 2 feet from each other. Imagine Taiwan and the Philippines.

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2 hours ago, leadeater said:

Wasn't me... I think 2 is slightly fewer than your order lol

 

 

we are 2nd only to US defense stuff so it was probably a 3 letter agency 
I wish it meant we were getting zen3D but nope 😞 '

2 hours ago, neverpreodergames said:

I don't really understand what Chip Shortage means. 
  > Foxconn companies in Mexico have their workers full schedule with facemask and face protector 2 feet from each other. Imagine Taiwan and the Philippines.

there are not enough supply of parts. typically for a server you'd expect to be able to get a handful in the next few days from dell or HPE
its mostly small IC and parts like substrate that are the major issue right now, more fabs are going to come online in 2023 so thats when we will start to see extra stock

Good luck, Have fun, Build PC, and have a last gen console for use once a year. I should answer most of the time between 9 to 3 PST

NightHawk 3.0: R7 5700x @, B550A vision D, H105, 2x32gb Oloy 3600, Sapphire RX 6700XT  Nitro+, Corsair RM750X, 500 gb 850 evo, 2tb rocket and 5tb Toshiba x300, 2x 6TB WD Black W10 all in a 750D airflow.
GF PC: (nighthawk 2.0): R7 2700x, B450m vision D, 4x8gb Geli 2933, Strix GTX970, CX650M RGB, Obsidian 350D

Skunkworks: R5 3500U, 16gb, 500gb Adata XPG 6000 lite, Vega 8. HP probook G455R G6 Ubuntu 20. LTS

Condor (MC server): 6600K, z170m plus, 16gb corsair vengeance LPX, samsung 750 evo, EVGA BR 450.

Spirt  (NAS) ASUS Z9PR-D12, 2x E5 2620V2, 8x4gb, 24 3tb HDD. F80 800gb cache, trueNAS, 2x12disk raid Z3 stripped

PSU Tier List      Motherboard Tier List     SSD Tier List     How to get PC parts cheap    HP probook 445R G6 review

 

"Stupidity is like trying to find a limit of a constant. You are never truly smart in something, just less stupid."

Camera Gear: X-S10, 16-80 F4, 60D, 24-105 F4, 50mm F1.4, Helios44-m, 2 Cos-11D lavs

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21 minutes ago, GDRRiley said:

we are 2nd only to US defense stuff so it was probably a 3 letter agency 
I wish it meant we were getting zen3D but nope 😞 '

If we do make a full switch to EPYC for our VM hosts we'll drop down from low hundred to only 25 lol.

 

Sadly those kinds of savings, for everyone, doesn't translate to a decrease in demand because it's just shifting capacity demand from Intel fabs to TSMC & GloFo. Intel thus far has been able to far better supply the market. I know places that stuck with Intel purely on the basis of actually being able to get the servers.

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14 minutes ago, leadeater said:

If we do make a full switch to EPYC for our VM hosts we'll drop down from low hundred to only 25 lol.

 

Sadly those kinds of savings, for everyone, doesn't translate to a decrease in demand because it's just shifting capacity demand from Intel fabs to TSMC & GloFo. Intel thus far has been able to far better supply the market. I know places that stuck with Intel purely on the basis of actually being able to get the servers.

we bought about 1/2 the number of EPYC vs Xeon but we are adding A100 in almost a 1 to 1.
yeah now that intels got their supply fixed from 2-3 years ago they are fine so far

Good luck, Have fun, Build PC, and have a last gen console for use once a year. I should answer most of the time between 9 to 3 PST

NightHawk 3.0: R7 5700x @, B550A vision D, H105, 2x32gb Oloy 3600, Sapphire RX 6700XT  Nitro+, Corsair RM750X, 500 gb 850 evo, 2tb rocket and 5tb Toshiba x300, 2x 6TB WD Black W10 all in a 750D airflow.
GF PC: (nighthawk 2.0): R7 2700x, B450m vision D, 4x8gb Geli 2933, Strix GTX970, CX650M RGB, Obsidian 350D

Skunkworks: R5 3500U, 16gb, 500gb Adata XPG 6000 lite, Vega 8. HP probook G455R G6 Ubuntu 20. LTS

Condor (MC server): 6600K, z170m plus, 16gb corsair vengeance LPX, samsung 750 evo, EVGA BR 450.

Spirt  (NAS) ASUS Z9PR-D12, 2x E5 2620V2, 8x4gb, 24 3tb HDD. F80 800gb cache, trueNAS, 2x12disk raid Z3 stripped

PSU Tier List      Motherboard Tier List     SSD Tier List     How to get PC parts cheap    HP probook 445R G6 review

 

"Stupidity is like trying to find a limit of a constant. You are never truly smart in something, just less stupid."

Camera Gear: X-S10, 16-80 F4, 60D, 24-105 F4, 50mm F1.4, Helios44-m, 2 Cos-11D lavs

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Posted

People speculate that it's apple, but maybe it's one of the car companies?

 

And hoarding might not mean they spesifically sell less products to have stock, probably more like they had a deal that could make them get more than they needed right now and they did.

“Remember to look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Try to make sense of what you see and wonder about what makes the universe exist. Be curious. And however difficult life may seem, there is always something you can do and succeed at. 
It matters that you don't just give up.”

-Stephen Hawking

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