When will the GPU Prices will go back to normal?

[XnonXte]

I know it sound crazy. But when do you think GPU Prices are gonna coming back to MSRP with Lot of stock?... We've been seeing some GPU restocking here and there, Like in some Retailer GPU are going back in stock, But never at MSRP... Like in Amazon I see a RX 6700 XT/RTX 3060/RTX 3070 Are in stock and can be purchased. But Double the MSRP, Which mean stock are there, But because of the Current situation the Price is double the MSRP, Because everyone wanted to get into the party, Including the Retailers.

 

Also Ethereum 2.0 are Considered to be end of GPU Ethereum mining, At least not profitable any more (According to Paul's Hardware video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JG2jDa-Q_S0)

 

But I think in order to GPU prices going back to Normal it needed to solve 3 thing

- Silicon lottery

- Mining boom

- Scalper maniac

And all of them has to Solved in order to the GPU is gonna going back to normal 

 

I don't know a lot about how GPU Mining exactly work, But consider this... When the Mining boom are ended, And it will someday... The Used market will be flooded by GPU Goods... Like when in 2017/2018 GPU Used market are flooded with Neither RX470 or 480. And so this time... Hopefully

 

My Prediction is at the end of 2021, What is yours?

[Middcore]

Nobody knows. /Thread

[XnonXte]

1 minute ago, Middcore said:

Nobody knows. /Thread

Bruh... You again XD

[XnonXte]

I know it sound crazy. But when do you think GPU Prices are gonna coming back to MSRP with Lot of stock?... We've been seeing some GPU restocking here and there, Like in some Retailer GPU are going back in stock, But never at MSRP, Like in Amazon I see a RX 6700 XT/RTX 3060/RTX 3070 Are in stock and can be purchased. But Double the MSRP, Which mean stock are there, But because of the Current situation the Price is double the MSRP, Because everyone wanted to get into the party, Including the Retailers.

 

Also Ethereum 2.0 are Considered to be end of GPU Ethereum mining, At least not profitable any more (According to Paul's Hardware video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JG2jDa-Q_S0)

 

But I think in order to GPU prices going back to Normal it needed to solve 3 thing

- Silicon lottery

- Mining boom

- Scalper maniac

And all of them has to Solved in order to the GPU is gonna going back to normal 

 

I don't know a lot about how GPU Mining exactly work, But consider this, When the Mining boom are ended, And it will someday... The Used market will be flooded by GPU Goods... Like when in 2017/2018 GPU Used market are flooded with Neither RX470 or 480. And so this time... Hopefully

 

My Prediction is at the end of 2021, What is your Prediction? (Just ask your opinion, Please don't be rude asf)

[Blue4130]

12 minutes ago, XnonXte said:

Bruh... You again XD

How many topics do we need about this?  It seems to come up daily. (and you even posted a different one moments ago)

 

Nobody knows.

[Helpful Tech Witch]

The earliest estimates are the end of this year (Dec/Nov), latest end of 2022/early 2023

 

But mining eth won't help really. Then something else that is profitable will come along, just like if Nvidia were able to kill efficiency in eth, some other coin will rise

[XnonXte]

7 minutes ago, HelpfulTechWizard said:

The earliest estimates are the end of this year (Dec/Nov), latest end of 2022/early 2023

 

But mining eth won't help really. Then something else that is profitable will come along, just like if Nvidia were able to kill efficiency in eth, some other coin will rise

I think so, Hopefully because I tired of these GPU Shortage Rage

[SansVarnic]

-= Topics Merged =-

Do not repost topics.

[IkeaGnome]

[Brooksie359]

3 minutes ago, XnonXte said:

I think so, Hopefully because I tired of these GPU Shortage Rage

Tbh by the time the shortage is done the next gen gpus will be coming out soon. I wonder if nvidia and amd don't want to ramp up production only for them to replace the gpus in a little bit and the stock that they created won't be sold in time. Also it might be that they simply want to focus on the next gen production rather than trying to salvage this gen. 

[XnonXte]

1 minute ago, Brooksie359 said:

Tbh by the time the shortage is done the next gen gpus will be coming out soon. I wonder if nvidia and amd don't want to ramp up production only for them to replace the gpus in a little bit and the stock that they created won't be sold in time. Also it might be that they simply want to focus on the next gen production rather than trying to salvage this gen. 

I think so, Maybe it seems that the Market won't really recover from this GPU Lineup (Both Nvidia RTX 3000 Series and AMD RX 6000 Series)

[Brooksie359]

1 minute ago, XnonXte said:

I think so, Maybe it seems that the Market won't really recover from this GPU Lineup (Both Nvidia RTX 3000 Series and AMD RX 6000 Series)

Yeah I'm just thinking nvidia and amd both have been burned before for this very reason so it would not surprise me at all if they didn't want to ramp up production to meet demand like they did last time especially when fab capacity is limited anyways. I mean both amd and nvidia are rumored to be realising their next gen next year so even if they ramped up production now and improved supply by the end of the year it would likely backfire once everyone realized that next gen is about to come out. 

[Blue4130]

59 minutes ago, Brooksie359 said:

Yeah I'm just thinking nvidia and amd both have been burned before for this very reason so it would not surprise me at all if they didn't want to ramp up production to meet demand like they did last time especially when fab capacity is limited anyways. I mean both amd and nvidia are rumored to be realising their next gen next year so even if they ramped up production now and improved supply by the end of the year it would likely backfire once everyone realized that next gen is about to come out. 

Nvidia and AMD don't really care what gen they are on as long as they are selling. Why bother going through the hassle of switching nodes and doing all the R&D when they can't even keep current stuff in stock at these prices?

 

Also, how are they getting burned? Their earnings per share has almost doubled since last year. Net revenue is up 1.5 Billion USD. If that is getting burned, give me the fire please.

[Brooksie359]

4 hours ago, Blue4130 said:

Nvidia and AMD don't really care what gen they are on as long as they are selling. Why bother going through the hassle of switching nodes and doing all the R&D when they can't even keep current stuff in stock at these prices?

 

Also, how are they getting burned? Their earnings per share has almost doubled since last year. Net revenue is up 1.5 Billion USD. If that is getting burned, give me the fire please.

What are you talking about? I said they got burned in the past for ramping up production to meet mining demand because the mining market crashed and the market got flooded with used cards. They had a super hard time selling the stock they made by before next gen released because the demand for gpus suddenly dropped along with a huge amount of supply of used gpus. Once next gen was released they essentially couldn't sell the last gen stock anymore and took a significant hit. This isn't news as nvidia has said ramping up supply was a mistake after the fact. Also its not like investing in next gen stops just because current gen gpus are having stock issues. Nvidia usually works on multiple gens at a time each in different stages so 4000 series has been in the works since before the release of the 3000 series. We are highly likely to not see supply normalize until mining crashes/ becomes way less profitable since I doubt nvidia will ramp up production. 

[Moonzy]

Right now

 

If y'all stop buying it, so I can get more of it

[LogicalDrm]

-> Moved to Graphics Cards

***

 

If by normal you mean close to those prices given by Nvidia and AMD as MSRP, it could be sooner rather than later. However, this shortage has shown that people are still willing to pay big money. That means that overall prices will remain rather high for longer time.

[SolarNova]

There have been a few reasons for the price increase, some of those reasons have not gone away.

 

1st, starting with the 20 series, Nvidia (and in response AMD) raised their MSRP prices by 1 tier, this became more obvious in the 30 series as it affect all tiers.

 

Around the same time, Crypto currencies surged, causing a increase in demand for cards capable of mining efficiently.

 

Also around the same time a Chip shortage occurred , become more serious in the 30 series.

 

And finally, the worlds governments response to C19 crippled economies and had an adverse effect on global transport of goods.

 

These all together caused a massive increase in the realworld cost of obtaining a GPU.

 

 

Ask yourself, have these issued been resolved ? , how long do they look like they are going to last ? how long are the effects going to linger ?

 

Basically the answer is ...years.

The 1st point may never be undone as thats a decision made before the rest of the events , one thats been rewarded by unprincipled buyers many of whom are within our own community.

 

The likely best case scenario is that GPUs return to current MSRPs in a few years time, but thats still going to be higher than 2 decades of past pricing even taking into account inflation.

[WakeUpSheep]

But in reality it is going to continue because of everybody (like most of you) making excuses for them and being ok with it.

[jwwagner25]

11 hours ago, WakeUpSheep said:

But in reality it is going to continue because of everybody (like most of you) making excuses for them and being ok with it.

sortof hit the nail on the head. take any durable good, whether graphics cards or slippers. if people are willing to pay X price, that is what they will be sold for. If they are priced at X and no one buys, the price will fall. As long as people keep buying, there is no reason to lower price. It's a catch 22 (i think)

 

Also we were spoiled in the beginning of 30 series; the idea of getting 2080 TI ($1200 USD) performance for $500 USD (3070FE) was amazing; almost too good to be true. Combine that with whatever shortage happened and boom, there you have the current situation. 

 

Solution? everyone stops buying the cards at the inflated price. but to the above poster's point, its just not going to happen. People are impulsive. 

[Error 504]

well, since this thread is still alive, and coincidentally, my friend and i went to see a scalper just yesterday, for a brand new rog strix 3090 card, which was 20% higher than its retail price in vancouver area.

 

my friend was buying it, not me.

20% is still a lot, but it ain't no crazy 50% or 80% or 200% as seen on ebay and amazon and newegg.

 

the scalper was a miner, and he was actually a very nice guy (or maybe he tried to pretend to be nice). he showed us the original receipt (from a local brick-and-mortar store) for the card, and we checked the serial number on the box and the receipt, then we opened up the box and matched the serial on the card.

 

we had long chat, and he showed us on the phone his mining rigs, where he got them, the live hashrate of his cards..... and from talking to that ONE miner, it's now my opinion that gpu price ain't coming down. i want it to come down, and what goes up must come down, and it PROBABLY will, WHEN crypto crashes (what crash?). and even if the productions improve, the pent-up demand from regular pc users is too great, and plus the insatiable demand from miners. 

 

there is mining, and supply-chain issues, and now the omicron surfacing, and ti's the season to be blowing your wad, it is my officially position that gpu price won't be coming down for a long time, unless you wanna settle for a 6800xt or 6900xt, those two are surprisingly readily available in nearby stores, at a mildly inflated price. (i think 6900xt is a great card, it's not 3090, but it's good enough for me)

 

i have watched many "graphically challenged" videos, "let's talk about it". but i really don't think gpu price is gonna come down any time soon. my suggestion, grab what you can now, because the longer you wait, the shortage will get worse.

 

this is really just my opinion, i'm sick of this crap too, but miners wanna make money, and gamers wanna game. i really don't see how the price will come down. please prove me wrong, because i really want to buy a graphics card too.

 

PS,

i just watched this guy, light at the end of the tunnel: 

 

[CptnReflex]

that's the price of a card used for mining and wasn't even new in box. Asus webstore on amazon them self charge $3900 USD for that particular card, while at microcenter if you get one in person is much cheaper. Why would a scalper charge less than amazon web store for the same product? heavily used card, and the dude is probably afraid of the IRS coming after him soon, with recent policy changes (NOT GETTING POLITICAL, guaranteed I'm getting a warning for even saying this) 

 

point is, it's going to be much harder to invest in crypto in the future. I can't even go into reasons why into specifics or I risk getting an infraction, and this pertains DIRECTLY to the conversation at hand. This is not politics, this is economics. When it's harder and harder to invest in crypto, yes, heavily used cards will get sold for surprisingly less, and they will short sell their crypto. 

 

can a mod tell me if I'm even allowed to talk about this stuff please? This pertains directly to why people are short selling crypto and dumping cards. people will be afraid to invest in crypto soon and that's a fact. 

 

Other than that, you won't see actual retail prices go down much as long as there isn't a huge supply. You could wipe crypto entirely off the map and ban it from every country on the planet right now and prices in stores wouldn't get much better. both AMD and Nvidia can't produce enough units for demand and people will scalp even without crypto. The reason I know this is true is the fact consoles are selling online for twice the price of MSRP still, and are very hard to find in stores still. During the pandemic at once point, people were scalping KETCHUP PACKETS. AMD and Nvidia would have to have 10 times their production numbers for prices to normalize, and even then Nvidia cards would still be low on stock a lot of the time because they would horde their own supply to sell Geforce now or w/e it's called to stream games with an unobtainable card regardless to keep prices high. This is the future of GPU supply, and every gamer that gives up owning their own card are going to have to deal with horrible input lag and stream from some workstation server for allotted GPU power instead. Another indicator that GPU prices won't get much better is the fact that DDR5 prices are selling for 900 bucks for low end kits and upwards of 2 grand for higher end kits. A gpu not only uses ram chips but needs a PCB, a bunch of surface mounted components, and a slab of printed silicon similar to a cpu die all in one chip. If people will pay as much for a couple sticks of ram as they are paying for GPU's, whats to stop them from jacking prices up even more during supply crunches next tier and see what they can get away with. MSRP has become a joke, and will probably continue to be a joke for decades to come.

[Error 504]

5 hours ago, Dean0919 said:

I just checked prices for these cards on Amazon. $1900 & $2000. I wouldn't call it mildly infliated price. Average gamer can't afford cards with that price. It's only for rich people.

sorry, the gpu prices have been crazy for too long, so in my mind right now, the msrp for these top-tier cards is around $2,500 cad, i'm used to these prices. they are still extremely unaffordable, but i no longer feel surprised when i see a listing of $4,000 for a 3090.

 

13 hours ago, CptnReflex said:

that's the price of a card used for mining and wasn't even new in box. Asus webstore on amazon them self charge $3900 USD for that particular card, while at microcenter if you get one in person is much cheaper. Why would a scalper charge less than amazon web store for the same product?

my friend paid $3,500cad for a brand new rog strix 3090. according to the original receipt from five days ago, the retail price after tax is $2,900cad.

 

crypto mining, omicron, supply chain trouble, black friday, cyber monday, x'mas day, boxing day.... it's a perfect storm. IMO, grab whatever you can afford right now, because i don't think the price will come down any time soon. 

 

honest opinion, last gen amd and nvidia are still doing pretty well right now.

 

[CptnReflex]

On 11/30/2021 at 4:05 PM, Error 504 said:

sorry, the gpu prices have been crazy for too long, so in my mind right now, the msrp for these top-tier cards is around $2,500 cad, i'm used to these prices. they are still extremely unaffordable, but i no longer feel surprised when i see a listing of $4,000 for a 3090.

 

my friend paid $3,500cad for a brand new rog strix 3090. according to the original receipt from five days ago, the retail price after tax is $2,900cad.

 

crypto mining, omicron, supply chain trouble, black friday, cyber monday, x'mas day, boxing day.... it's a perfect storm. IMO, grab whatever you can afford right now, because i don't think the price will come down any time soon. 

 

honest opinion, last gen amd and nvidia are still doing pretty well right now.

 

I know you can get them cheaper, but people who insure their pc probably can get $3900 quoted from amazon was my main point

 

Amazon.com: ASUS ROG Strix GeForce RTX 3090 OC Edition 24GB GDDR6X Gaming Graphics Card with Axial-tech Fans & Central Static Pressure Fan ROG-STRIX-RTX3090-O24G-GAMING : Electronics

 

well $3800 now, but you are correct that it can be obtained cheaper

 

you meant $3500cad right?

[Error 504]

1 hour ago, CptnReflex said:

you meant $3500cad right?

yes, $3,500cad

 

it's $600 higher than what he actually paid in the store, about 20% higher.

but it's still better than paying $3,800 or $4,000 over the internet.

 

at least the $3,500 is local with a receipt, so if there is any problem, it will be easier to deal with.

ownership and warranty are transferable, right??

[CptnReflex]

51 minutes ago, Error 504 said:

yes, $3,500cad

 

it's $600 higher than what he actually paid in the store, about 20% higher.

but it's still better than paying $3,800 or $4,000 over the internet.

 

at least the $3,500 is local with a receipt, so if there is any problem, it will be easier to deal with.

ownership and warranty are transferable, right??

that last part depends on manufacture. Double lifetime warranty is indeed transferable EVGA I know in the past would offer this