Cisco CEO says Chip shortage to last longer than a year.

[Ar558a]

 

Quotes

Quote

Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins told Yahoo Finance Live today that he thinks it could take "a couple years" for the ongoing chip shortage to finally end.

 

My thoughts

Even more depressing than we thought, this is looking like we might end up with lots of users not only not be able to buy new parts for new machines and upgrades but also large numbers who have old components fail and cant replace them stranded without any components unless there willing to pay 5x the price for ancient out of date tech on Ebay. It's just depressing.

 

Sources

https://www.tomshardware.com/uk/news/cisco-ceo-expects-chip-shortage-last-several-years

[Entropy.]

14 minutes ago, Ar558a said:

 

Quotes

 

My thoughts

Even more depressing than we thought, this is looking like we might end up with lots of users not only not be able to buy new parts for new machines and upgrades but also large numbers who have old components fail and cant replace them stranded without any components unless there willing to pay 5x the price for ancient out of date tech on Ebay. It's just depressing.

 

Sources

https://www.tomshardware.com/uk/news/cisco-ceo-expects-chip-shortage-last-several-years

Not very new tbh, these comments usually are fairly speculative so, meh. 

[Mark Kaine]

1 hour ago, Brok3n But who cares? said:

Not very new tbh, these comments usually are fairly speculative so, meh. 

Agreed, generally these guys are just guessing like everyone else,  the difference is they know people will take their word for granted because they're the "CEO" of some big corporation.

 

I just hope these big guy CEOS learn something from this and that's that "JIT" is and has always been a bad idea precisely because of the unpredictability of things like the current "crisis".

 

 

[Brooksie359]

2 hours ago, Mark Kaine said:

Agreed, generally these guys are just guessing like everyone else,  the difference is they know people will take their word for granted because they're the "CEO" of some big corporation.

 

I just hope these big guy CEOS learn something from this and that's that "JIT" is and has always been a bad idea precisely because of the unpredictability of things like the current "crisis".

 

 

From a business prospective not really. Its not like the chip makers are suffering at all from this. Its the customer that is. Also you can't blame a system as faulty simply because it doesn't work that .1% of the time when crazy shit happens. Its like for air conditioning systems they take climate statistics and design based on your typical worst weather day in a year. That doesn't mean that when the system doesn't work properly because you have a day that is the hottest its been in 50 years that somehow the system was a bad design. This is not to mention that you can't say a way of doing something is bad simply because one implementation of it didn't work out so well. It could be the case that its simply a poor implementation. The fact is most manufacturers use JIT because it works well and that's why it is so widely adopted. 

[Brooksie359]

2 hours ago, Mark Kaine said:

Agreed, generally these guys are just guessing like everyone else,  the difference is they know people will take their word for granted because they're the "CEO" of some big corporation.

 

I just hope these big guy CEOS learn something from this and that's that "JIT" is and has always been a bad idea precisely because of the unpredictability of things like the current "crisis".

 

 

Also you do realize that the alternative might be even worse. Before JIT the cost of manufacturing was simply higher so the prices of the product was higher. The reason why places started to adopt it was because they couldn't compete in prices with places that used it. It has made product essentially cheaper so I would simply argue the alternative is worse. 

[PeachGr]

The same people, six months ago, couldn't predict the shortage of today, so read with a grain of salt.

As a Danish saying: predictions aren't trustworthy, especially for the future

[Doobeedoo]

NANI ?!

[Rym]

If you find a deal, like a 3080 for 50% above MSRP you should probably strongly consider it.

[da na]

Here I am, crying in shame because my RX 570 died and now I'm on my backup card (a r5 240, look it up) and can't play games...

[X-System]

2 hours ago, wat3rmelon_man2 said:

Here I am, crying in shame because my RX 570 died and now I'm on my backup card (a r5 240, look it up) and can't play games...

Ouch! R5 240

 

But it still is better than my GeForce GT 610 PCIe 1x as backup card if my RTX 2080 Super will die

[da na]

24 minutes ago, X-System said:

Ouch! R5 240

 

But it still is better than my GeForce GT 610 PCIe 1x as backup card if my RTX 2080 Super will die

Damn... oof. I've found that it works well with older Microsoft games that also released for Xbox, because those are really well optimized for slower hardware like consoles. The fan is also locked to one speed, and it's somehow the most incompetent speed ever-it's somehow too loud but also doesn't cool the card that well!

[Lurick]

This isn't just "oh my GPU" shortage stuff, this is EVERYTHING kind of shortage stuff. This isn't just impacting the consumer PC market this is impacting enterprise level supply chain stuff as well, and it's impacting it pretty badly too. Let's see how much you complain in 6 months when the shortages are still happening and people are losing their jobs because the inventory can't be brought in to support expansion and growth of companies so they have to turn away customers and it cuts into earnings and they have to cut staff as a result. These shortages aren't going away tomorrow and anyone who thinks otherwise is full of themselves. Fabs CANNOT be spun up and down like services on a network can, they take time, money, and energy to build. Part of the blame also lies with chip makers too because they, pre-pandemic, were already running at 80%+ capacity to make the fabs profitable, toss in supply chain woes, silicon shortages, and boom, you're screwed.

[Lurick]

9 hours ago, PeachGr said:

The same people, six months ago, couldn't predict the shortage of today, so read with a grain of salt.

As a Danish saying: predictions aren't trustworthy, especially for the future

No actually they did and they started preparing long before but they didn't expect it to last this long either and guessed (incorrectly) that we might be ramping up production but we aren't.

[TetraSky]

It's ok, not like I wanted a new graphic card to finally replace my aging 7970 or anything. Who needs to play PC VR games after buying a VR headset while hoping they could get a new GPU within the next few weeks of buying it anyway. Haven't played a demanding games in months now and I couldn't be happier! *fake laughing while slightly tearing up*

[aom]

14 hours ago, Mark Kaine said:

Agreed, generally these guys are just guessing like everyone else,  the difference is they know people will take their word for granted because they're the "CEO" of some big corporation.

 

I just hope these big guy CEOS learn something from this and that's that "JIT" is and has always been a bad idea precisely because of the unpredictability of things like the current "crisis".

 

 

Maybe if these CEOs were talking out of their domain. But as the CEO of an absolutely massive networking hardware (and software) company like Cisco, I would imagine he would have a pretty good idea of the supply chain that directly affects their business. Sure its still a guess, but probably a much more informed guess than most of "everyone else".

[Ar558a]

This thread was just shown in the latest TechLinked. My 15s of fame

[Entropy.]

1 hour ago, Ar558a said:

This thread was just shown in the latest TechLinked. My 15s of fame

yessir, and i got my irrelevant-to-the-topic post shown under yours for all of two seconds. kekek

[CarlBar]

On 4/1/2021 at 4:11 PM, Lurick said:

No actually they did and they started preparing long before but they didn't expect it to last this long either and guessed (incorrectly) that we might be ramping up production but we aren't.

 

It's not just that. The prolonged large scale lockdowns threw every norm on their heads, including consumer buying and spending habits. Nothing on that scale has been since before home electronics became a thing. I suspect they saw the writing on the wall 9 months or so ago, but by then it was a good few years too late to do anything that would help.  It might look easy to predict with hindsight, but it's been so long since anything like this happened that there's not the store of institutional experiance there to make people think about it in detail and plan for it.

[SurvivorNVL]

I suspected this back in June.  Already reconciled with the fact that for the next three years PC-building is on hold, unless you buy from a custom manufacturer like Origin or Digital Storm; they seem to be the only ones to get stock in + 10-15% mark-up over MSRP as opposed to 50%-100% over MSRP.  

[wamred]

On 3/31/2021 at 7:25 PM, Ar558a said:

 

Quotes

 

My thoughts

Even more depressing than we thought, this is looking like we might end up with lots of users not only not be able to buy new parts for new machines and upgrades but also large numbers who have old components fail and cant replace them stranded without any components unless there willing to pay 5x the price for ancient out of date tech on Ebay. It's just depressing.

 

Sources

https://www.tomshardware.com/uk/news/cisco-ceo-expects-chip-shortage-last-several-years

This is depressing tbh