corona virus

[mr moose]

7 hours ago, Teddy07 said:

I mean the hype surrounding the virus in general. You hear it all day everday in the media. It is just making money with fearmongering and people go along with it.

You didn't have to click on a thread clearly labeled "corona virus".  So it was avoidable and to I don't think the discussion in this thread is crazy or hype.  It has a few ups and downs but is relatively rational and calm.

[Bombastinator]

7 hours ago, Teddy07 said:

I mean the hype surrounding the virus in general. You hear it all day everday in the media. It is just making money with fearmongering and people go along with it.

I wouldn’t say “just”.  It’s not pure hype like some kardashian thing.  It’s actually happening and while it is not currently a world threat that is because people are being very very careful.  Will there be people that use anything at all to advance their interests and use smoke and mirrors? Sure it’s unavoidable.  “Just hype” Implies pure smoke.  There’s some real fire under this one.  How Smokey the fire is I do not know.  The info I’m seeing here seems to be flame rather than smoke related mostly.

[Canoe]

On 2/2/2020 at 6:46 PM, scuff gang said:

Yeah ik masks don't really help with anything except keeping your germs with you, respirators still have filters but atleast they're affective.

 

Hmm maybe all those gasmask cartridges i saved up will come in handy

Except then I found and posted...

Quote

Dr. Mark Loeb, an infectious disease specialist at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, said a study during an outbreak of the SARS coronavirus found that any type of protection — whether a mask or a respirator — reduced the risk of infections in health care workers by about 85 percent.

 

***

 

On 2/2/2020 at 4:46 PM, oskar23 said:

Ive seen the  map. Question is based on what  it is updated?  There will be official and unofficial information when it comes to numbers. There may be thousands that are infected but they are not confirmed yet. Also i dont think every single person that is sick is part of this growing number.

Yes, there are thousands that are infected with something, but they are not confirmed yet. The number of them they suspect have 2019-nCoV is published.

Quote

Chinese National Health Commission (CNHC) is reporting a new number for Suspected Cases, 19,533 as of end of February 1, 2020.

It's in a post above and on the graph I posted. Using the CNHC numbers they've released, the total of Confirmed and Suspected is over 34,000.

They're not testing those that present with mild symptoms, just those with more severe symptoms. Read above.

 

***

 

Latest snapshot graph, to February 2, 2020, 9 pm EST.

 

We have no numbers on how many classed as Suspected end up later joining Confirmed. The CNHE report includes all sorts of numbers on efforts to chase down and locate and determine the status of those who came into contact with someone who later presented as infected. They're also reporting corrections, even minor ones of one or a few numbers. Combined, it suggests there is a substantial effort being made at record keeping.

For all of the Confirmed, 95% are Unresolved. How many will end up as Deaths vs. Recovered. Given Deaths so far is 362 and Recovered is 487. Recovered is finally climbing higher than Deaths, suggesting, if early and weakly, that although a prolonged illness, much more Recovered will occur.

 

 

 

***

 

Newer numbers, not comprehensive, show Deaths at 362, and Recovered at 530.

So it appears we're finally getting more Recovered such that then are no longer Deaths:Recovered near 1:1, but nearing 2:3.

 

I found some values for SARS and added them to the graph. I'm hoping to find a whole data set, Confirmed per Day. Rather a material difference.

 

 

 

[Touch My Hamm]

O boy this thread is either going to stay on track or go off the rails and im just here b4 cleaning or locked.

(didnt read all the comments)...

[WkdPaul]

1 minute ago, GodSeph said:

O boy this thread is either going to stay on track or go off the rails and im just here b4 cleaning or locked.

(didnt read all the comments)...

You're late in the game, it's been cleaned a few times already

[Bombastinator]

3 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

You're late in the game, it's been cleaned a few times already

It’s true.  Looks like I just got my comment cleaned.  Don’t know why, but I’ve yet to see a cleaning that didn’t make sense in retrospect so I’ll take it in good grace.  Don’t know why on the last one.  They generally wind up making sense eventually though.  I was reacting to the text rather than the graph which the text implied was out of date.  I could have been wrong though.

[WkdPaul]

2 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

It’s true.  Looks like I just got my comment cleaned.  Don’t know why, but I’ve yet to see a cleaning that didn’t make sense in retrospect so I’ll take it in good grace.  Don’t know why on the last one.  They generally wind up making sense eventually though.  I was reacting to the text rather than the graph which the text implied was out of date.  I could have been wrong though.

We usually don't talk about moderation publicly, but specifically for this, I can confirm nothing was done (in this thread) with your replies.

 

So I guess it's technically fine since we're talking about lack of moderation instead

 

[Bombastinator]

3 minutes ago, wkdpaul said:

We usually don't talk about moderation publicly, but specifically for this, I can confirm nothing was done (in this thread) with your replies.

 

So I guess it's technically fine since we're talking about lack of moderation instead

 

Could have just been me stupiding the submit button then and thinking I’d been cleaned.  Derp on my part.

[WkdPaul]

15 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

Could have just been me stupiding the submit button then and thinking I’d been cleaned.  Derp on my part.

No problem, that also happens to me from time to time  

[Tristerin]

Also me (on Corona virus): Was a perfect weekend to go re-up my prepper supplies.  Since having kids I have let it slide so felt nice getting the DoomsDay supply re-evaluated and shored up.

 

Also also me: If you can avoid public places with high foot traffic over the next few months, do so.

[Bombastinator]

30 minutes ago, Tristerin said:

Also me (on Corona virus): Was a perfect weekend to go re-up my prepper supplies.  Since having kids I have let it slide so felt nice getting the DoomsDay supply re-evaluated and shored up.

 

Also also me: If you can avoid public places with high foot traffic over the next few months, do so.

I think that might apply if one lived in Wuhan.   Just about anywhere else in the world it probably doesn’t though.  The impression I got from the last post by @Canoe is things are starting to even out a bit which gives me hope.

[Tristerin]

15 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

I think that might apply if one lived in Wuhan.   Just about anywhere else in the world it probably doesn’t though.  The impression I got from the last post by @Canoe is things are starting to even out a bit which gives me hope.

Fortune favors the prepared, in all things.  

 

Its currently within 4 hours driving from St. Louis, way to close for comfort.  

 

To each their own, but I don't gamble when the odds are bad/manipulatable, I stack them ever in my favor.  

 

EDIT - Im also the guy that didn't purchase any food stuffs exported out of China during the weekends venture - likelihood of it being exposed is about as slim to none based on transit times to shelf in the US - but why take that risk?  I like 100% odds in my favor, if its not 100% than I work to bridging that gap in all things.

 

[Bombastinator]

7 minutes ago, Tristerin said:

Fortune favors the prepared, in all things.  

 

Its currently within 4 hours driving from St. Louis, way to close for comfort.  

 

To each their own, but I don't gamble when the odds are bad/manipulatable, I stack them ever in my favor.  

 

EDIT - Im also the guy that didn't purchase any food stuffs exported out of China during the weekends venture - likelihood of it being exposed is about as slim to none based on transit times to shelf in the US - but why take that risk?  I like 100% odds in my favor, if its not 100% than I work to bridging that gap in all things.

 

I generally consider prepping to be a generally harmless and reasonable hobby.  My personal attitude on the subject is exemplified by the character in the movie “impact” who set up a lawn chair on the beach to watch the continent killing tidal wave roll in. As you said: to each their own.

[Guest]

An interesting article which was published today in Le Monde (French newspaper).

I pasted the Google Translation (sorry...)

Here's the link to the original: https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/02/03/face-au-coronavirus-les-failles-du-systeme-de-sante-chinois_6028226_3244.html

Spoiler

Faced with the coronavirus epidemic, the flaws in the Chinese health system

As with SARS, the coronavirus could force the country to rethink its health system.

Chen Nini, 32, waits in the hallway of Wuhan Number 3 Hospital, where his dying mother is being held in quarantine. At the end of December 2019, the mother, Chen Wantao, 59, went to buy meat at the Huanan market, where the epidemic started a few weeks earlier. "If she had known there was a risk there, she would never have gone there. But because of the Wuhan government, which controlled the information, she did not know. That's how she got infected ... "sighs her daughter.

Colds, fever ... In mid-January, Chen Wantao presented the symptoms of the new coronavirus. On the 18th, while China still assured that the latter was not transmissible between humans, she was admitted to the hospital. Blood tests and X-ray of the lungs suggest that she has pneumonia. Doctors are talking about this raging new epidemic, but are not carrying out tests that would detect the virus. No bed is available, Chen Wantao must go home.

A week later, China recognized the extent of the disease, and Chinese President Xi Jinping raised the alarm. Chen Nini takes his mother to Hankou Hospital, one of those who has been assigned to care for patients infected with the virus. "There were more than 1,000 patients waiting in line, but still no beds available," continues the young woman. We had to come back in line every day for outpatient treatment, when my mother's condition became critical: she could barely breathe, became incontinent, and her fever did not go down. "

The diagnosis is still not confirmed: "Hospitals often use the excuse of the lack of diagnostic kits not to do the tests, and not to admit my mother because it is not proven that she has the coronaviruses. But the reality is that they don't have enough beds, "says Chen Nini. On January 27, finally, a glimmer of hope, Chen Nini received a message from the emergency director of Hankou hospital: a bed will be available in the afternoon, the staff is cleaning it. Her mother is on oxygen in an emergency corridor. But the bed is no longer available a few hours later. "Someone who has relationships must have passed in front of us," said Chen Nini. Two days later, her mother finally receives a bed, on which she is dying right now.

No city medicine

Doctors are pretty sure she has the coronavirus, but they still haven't been able to do the tests, officially for lack of diagnostic kits. It wouldn't make much difference to her mother's condition, as no treatment is currently available. We can only attack the symptoms, by intubating patients who are having trouble breathing, for example. But without proof that she has been infected with the virus, the state does not pay for medical expenses. Chen Wantao’s family has already spent 20,000 yuan (about 2,600 euros), not including their hospital stay, since January 29.

In Hubei, the curfew also causes collateral damage. Chen Xiaofeng, 53, has breast cancer. She lives in Huangshi, about 100 km west of Wuhan, where she goes every week for treatment and to buy her medicine. But his city was quarantined in turn on January 29. When she turned to her city hospital with her prescription, the staff kept away: people who went to Wuhan are no longer received at Huangshi hospital. "It has been seven days since I went to Wuhan, and I had no symptoms. The nurse told me that the hospital does not accept any patients who have passed through Wuhan, said Ms. Chen. My condition has already deteriorated, it's a matter of life and death! There is no more public transport, I am too weak to walk to the hospital, and now I am afraid of being infected if I go there. "

When China trumpets that it is capable of building a hospital in ten days, the situations of Chen Wantao and Chen Xiaofeng (unrelated) illustrate the dismay of the Chinese people faced with the disease. In this country where city medicine does not exist, the public hospital is at the heart of the healthcare system. Whether they have cancer or simple bronchitis, this is where the Chinese go. In huge public hospitals where patients most often feel lost. "You should never go to the hospital alone," says a mother from Beijing. It takes at least two to avoid losing your place on the waiting list while running right and left to do the different steps. "

 

"Many bribes"

“The problem is that this money is misused. China has made great strides in medical infrastructure - but not enough in personnel. We lack qualified professionals. Partly because the hospital is a public structure and doctors are paid very little, "said Cai Jiangnan, president of the China Healthcare Innovation Platform Academy.

The result: "There are many bribes and potential conflicts of interest between the medical profession and the patients," he said. To increase their income and that of the structure that employs them, it is common knowledge that many doctors tend to prescribe too many drugs. Hence the distrust of patients towards hospital staff, which is reflected in particular in a high number of acts of violence against the medical profession. Between the search at the entrance to the hospital and an alarm bracelet that allows healthcare personnel to call the police in the event of a problem, each structure seeks the best way to deal with it.

In addition, getting treatment is expensive. While 95% of patients have basic coverage, the cost of rest is prohibitive: 36% of medical costs are paid by Chinese patients, according to WHO figures in 2017.

It is not uncommon for someone with a serious illness to borrow money from loved ones for treatment. For Cai Jiangnan, the solution lies in the creation of generalist "family doctors" and in a larger share granted to the private hospital sector which, for the moment, plays a secondary role in the provision of care. "If health is a priority of the government, its ideology pushes it to see health only as a public good", deplores this specialist. Like SARS, the current epidemic is likely to force China to rethink its health care system.

 

By Frédéric Lemaître et Simon Leplâtre. Published 02/03/2020 at 11h13, updated at 15h37

IMO it gives quite an interesting view to the problem of how reliable are the numbers we have... From what I read in the article, not very much and the total numbers are much higher than what we can expect.

Another point which I find VERY worrysome is the fact that if you are not officially diagnosed by the hospital then the treatment will not be taken by / reimbursed by the Healthcare system. How many people don't go back to the hospital after having been discouraged a first time?

 

Not very auspicious for the future.

Edited February 3, 2020 by Guest
Fixed the article text which was in french

[Bombastinator]

15 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

An interesting article which was published today in Le Monde (French newspaper).

I pasted the Google Translation (sorry...)

Here's the link to the original: https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/02/03/face-au-coronavirus-les-failles-du-systeme-de-sante-chinois_6028226_3244.html

  Reveal hidden contents

Faced with the coronavirus epidemic, the flaws in the Chinese health system

As with SARS, the coronavirus could force the country to rethink its health system.

Chen Nini, 32, waits in the hallway of Wuhan Number 3 Hospital, where his dying mother is being held in quarantine. At the end of December 2019, the mother, Chen Wantao, 59, went to buy meat at the Huanan market, where the epidemic started a few weeks earlier. "If she had known there was a risk there, she would never have gone there. But because of the Wuhan government, which controlled the information, she did not know. That's how she got infected ... "sighs her daughter.

Colds, fever ... In mid-January, Chen Wantao presented the symptoms of the new coronavirus. On the 18th, while China still assured that the latter was not transmissible between humans, she was admitted to the hospital. Blood tests and X-ray of the lungs suggest that she has pneumonia. Doctors are talking about this raging new epidemic, but are not carrying out tests that would detect the virus. No bed is available, Chen Wantao must go home.

A week later, China recognized the extent of the disease, and Chinese President Xi Jinping raised the alarm. Chen Nini takes his mother to Hankou Hospital, one of those who has been assigned to care for patients infected with the virus. "There were more than 1,000 patients waiting in line, but still no beds available," continues the young woman. We had to come back in line every day for outpatient treatment, when my mother's condition became critical: she could barely breathe, became incontinent, and her fever did not go down. "

The diagnosis is still not confirmed: "Hospitals often use the excuse of the lack of diagnostic kits not to do the tests, and not to admit my mother because it is not proven that she has the coronaviruses. But the reality is that they don't have enough beds, "says Chen Nini. On January 27, finally, a glimmer of hope, Chen Nini received a message from the emergency director of Hankou hospital: a bed will be available in the afternoon, the staff is cleaning it. Her mother is on oxygen in an emergency corridor. But the bed is no longer available a few hours later. "Someone who has relationships must have passed in front of us," said Chen Nini. Two days later, her mother finally receives a bed, on which she is dying right now.

No city medicine

Doctors are pretty sure she has the coronavirus, but they still haven't been able to do the tests, officially for lack of diagnostic kits. It wouldn't make much difference to her mother's condition, as no treatment is currently available. We can only attack the symptoms, by intubating patients who are having trouble breathing, for example. But without proof that she has been infected with the virus, the state does not pay for medical expenses. Chen Wantao’s family has already spent 20,000 yuan (about 2,600 euros), not including their hospital stay, since January 29.

In Hubei, the curfew also causes collateral damage. Chen Xiaofeng, 53, has breast cancer. She lives in Huangshi, about 100 km west of Wuhan, where she goes every week for treatment and to buy her medicine. But his city was quarantined in turn on January 29. When she turned to her city hospital with her prescription, the staff kept away: people who went to Wuhan are no longer received at Huangshi hospital. "It has been seven days since I went to Wuhan, and I had no symptoms. The nurse told me that the hospital does not accept any patients who have passed through Wuhan, said Ms. Chen. My condition has already deteriorated, it's a matter of life and death! There is no more public transport, I am too weak to walk to the hospital, and now I am afraid of being infected if I go there. "

When China trumpets that it is capable of building a hospital in ten days, the situations of Chen Wantao and Chen Xiaofeng (unrelated) illustrate the dismay of the Chinese people faced with the disease. In this country where city medicine does not exist, the public hospital is at the heart of the healthcare system. Whether they have cancer or simple bronchitis, this is where the Chinese go. In huge public hospitals where patients most often feel lost. "You should never go to the hospital alone," says a mother from Beijing. It takes at least two to avoid losing your place on the waiting list while running right and left to do the different steps. "

 

« Nombreux dessous-de-table »

« Le problème est que cet argent est mal utilisé. La Chine a énormément progressé dans les infrastructures médicales – mais pas assez dans les personnels. On manque de professionnels qualifiés. En partie parce que l’hôpital est une structure publique et que les médecins sont peu payés », explique Cai Jiangnan, président de la China Healthcare Innovation Platform Academy.

Résultat : « Il y a de nombreux dessous-de-table et de potentiels conflits d’intérêts entre le corps médical et les patients », poursuit-il. Pour augmenter leurs revenus et ceux de la structure qui les emploie, il est de notoriété publique que nombre de médecins ont tendance à prescrire trop de médicaments. D’où une défiance des patients à l’égard du personnel hospitalier qui se traduit notamment par un nombre élevé d’actes de violence à l’égard du corps médical. Entre la fouille à l’entrée de l’hôpital et un bracelet-alarme qui permet aux personnels soignants d’appeler la police en cas de problème, chaque structure cherche le meilleur moyen d’y faire face.

Par ailleurs, se soigner coûte cher. Si 95 % des patients bénéficient d’une couverture de base, les restes à charge sont prohibitifs : 36 % des frais médicaux sont payés par les patients chinois, selon les chiffres de l’OMS en 2017.

Il n’est pas rare qu’une personne atteinte d’une grave maladie doive emprunter de l’argent auprès de ses proches pour se soigner. Pour Cai Jiangnan, la solution passe par la création de « médecins de famille » généralistes et par une part plus grande accordée au secteur hospitalier privé qui, pour le moment, joue un rôle secondaire dans l’offre de soins. « Si la santé est une priorité du gouvernement, son idéologie le pousse à voir la santé uniquement comme un bien public », déplore ce spécialiste. Comme le SRAS, l’actuelle épidémie va sans doute contraindre la Chine à repenser à nouveau son système de santé.

By Frédéric Lemaître et Simon Leplâtre. Published 02/03/2020 at 11h13, updated at 15h37

IMO it gives quite an interesting view to the problem of how reliable are the numbers we have... From what I read in the article, not very much and the total numbers are much higher than what we can expect.

Another point which I find VERY worrysome is the fact that if you are not officially diagnosed by the hospital then the treatment will not be taken by / reimbursed by the Healthcare system. How many people don't go back to the hospital after having been discouraged a first time?

 

Not very auspicious for the future.

It does support the quarantine behavior of other nations regarding the outbreak.   It’s a single point example, and how universal that experience is is unknown.  It might be average, it might be extreme.  China at this point wants to look after its own problems.  This is within their choice set.  Other countries also have that choice set too.  As far as computer parts availability goes it does seem to bespeak potential interruption.

[Mister Woof]

I have allergies, and today is windy as hell. Naturally have sniffles. 

 

People looking at me like I got the wuhanvirus is a bit disconcerting.

 

 

 

[Letgomyleghoe]

4 hours ago, Tristerin said:

Also also me: If you can avoid public places with high foot traffic over the next few months, do so.

I cant lol, I cashier so im handling money and talking to people all day, guess im screwed 

[dalekphalm]

8 minutes ago, scuff gang said:

I cant lol, I cashier so im handling money and talking to people all day, guess im screwed 

Get your Flu shot, if you haven't already.

[Tristerin]

4 minutes ago, scuff gang said:

I cant lol, I cashier so im handling money and talking to people all day, guess im screwed 

Yeah Im in a hard place for how I want to avoid the public over the next few weeks as this progresses or digresses.  I own a gym and teach/train daily so sweating around and on people is a daily thing.  Bringing those germs home to my kids as well.  Then being stuck in an office with circulated air is another.  In both cases should people start wearing masks and whatnot to cover up Ill be using large chunks of my vacation time

[Letgomyleghoe]

On 2/3/2020 at 10:50 PM, dalekphalm said:

Get your Flu shot, if you haven't already.

oh yeah every year i get mine.

 

On 2/3/2020 at 11:32 PM, Tristerin said:

Yeah Im in a hard place for how I want to avoid the public over the next few weeks as this progresses or digresses.  I own a gym and teach/train daily so sweating around and on people is a daily thing.  Bringing those germs home to my kids as well.  Then being stuck in an office with circulated air is another.  In both cases should people start wearing masks and whatnot to cover up Ill be using large chunks of my vacation time

i still go to the gym i just wipe down the machines good and i dont touch my face or eyes, i know im at risk to airborne pathogens but i guess i always am

[dalekphalm]

2 minutes ago, scuff gang said:

oh yeah every year i get mine.

Good - it annoys me when so many people skip it.

 

Sure it's not 100% effective (this year we're at about 60% effective) - but even if it doesn't prevent it entirely, it will limit severity and significantly reduce the time it affects you.

 

Plus people act like the Flu is harmless, despite the fact that something like 8500 Americans died from it last year.

[WkdPaul]

1 minute ago, dalekphalm said:

[...]

Plus people act like the Flu is harmless, despite the fact that something like 8500 Americans died from it last year.

That's the most annoying part IMO, yeah, it might not be much for an healthy adult, but guess what Karen, there are people that have weaker immunity and you being infected and walking around like it's nothing is helping spreading it and reaching part of the weaker population.

 

/rant

[Bombastinator]

46 minutes ago, Tristerin said:

Yeah Im in a hard place for how I want to avoid the public over the next few weeks as this progresses or digresses.  I own a gym and teach/train daily so sweating around and on people is a daily thing.  Bringing those germs home to my kids as well.  Then being stuck in an office with circulated air is another.  In both cases should people start wearing masks and whatnot to cover up Ill be using large chunks of my vacation time

Still saying, if you don’t live in China there are probably more people dying of something weird like CJD than coronavirus.  How about worry about not eating human brains?  It’s a lot easier to handle.

[Guest]

Any of the 195 passengers in isolation got this Coronavirus thing or what? 

Only randoms around the US got it, and not one of the 195 people that flew in a confined space all from China and not one has it? (That's a good thing, I'm glad if this is the case)

Just wondering if there's any word on this? I can't find anything about them really besides they are held captive.

[Tristerin]

On 2/3/2020 at 11:52 PM, dalekphalm said:

Good - it annoys me when so many people skip it.

 

I never get it, never get the flu either.  Its free for me yearly.  

 

Ask me why?

 

Simple, every year the flu vaccine gets had by the 50 office personnel where I work - every year either all of them fake some sort of flu throughout the season, or they actually get it.  Either way, it doesn't work because its based on last years strain that has since mutated.

You can quote whatever CDC numbers you want, I disbelieve 99% of what the government tells me, and the only real examples I have are the ones experienced)

 

On 2/3/2020 at 11:59 PM, wkdpaul said:

/rant

 

It has nothing to do with me being a carrier or not, it has to do with the fact that each year the vaccine is based on last years strain which has since mutated....this happens every year.  I see no good coming out of putting a slurry of chemicals and dead virus' in my body, nor can I correlate any proof that it benefits...anyone.

 

I would say that the weak and infirm should not be up and out in public when the flu virus and its ilk are on the rise.  Makes no sense (to me) if I was able to get sick and potentially die why I would even come close to putting myself in those situations.  It sound callous but hard truths usually are.  To me the freedom to be out in public also comes with some onus to a persons own interest.  Don't go to a smoking area in the public park and complain someones smoking.

 

On 2/4/2020 at 12:20 AM, Bombastinator said:

Still saying, if you don’t live in China there are probably more people dying of something weird like CJD than coronavirus.  How about worry about not eating human brains?  It’s a lot easier to handle.

Im not worried, Im prepared.  Huge difference