'Surprise Mechanics' receive first nail in coffin: console games now forced to disclose loot box odds

[BachChain]

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/sony-microsoft-nintendo-loot-box-odds,40114.html

 

 

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The big three console manufacturers, Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo will now begin requiring new and updated console games that sell randomized loot boxes to explicitly reveal the odds of which items will appear.

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"Specifically, this would apply to new games and game updates that add loot box features," said Warnecke. "And it would require the disclosure of the relative rarity or probabilities of obtaining randomized virtual items on their platforms."

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 The ESA clarified in a statement that the three companies are targeting 2020 for "implementation of the policy."

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In addition to Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo, the ESA pointed out Activision Blizzard, Bungie, Electronic Arts, Bethesda and Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment to name a few of the major publishers to begin disclosing odds by 2020's end, with more to come. 

Finally

[jiyeon]

Well shit, now Epic's decision to explicitly show what's inside loot boxes was a legal move after all rather than a decision out of heart.

 

 

[The Sloth]

13 minutes ago, seoz said:

Well shit, now Epic's decision to explicitly show what's inside loot boxes was a legal move after all rather than a decision out of heart.

 

Its epic games, don't think they would ever make a consumer friendly decision out of the heart. 

 

 

 

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This mandate was handed down during an FTC panel on loot boxes that took place in Washington, DC on Wednesday.

Hopefully, they will enforce it. 

[justpoet]

Inb4 requirements like this apply elsewhere and..."This boss will not drop your loot this time when you kill it" in WoW and similar games, so why bother...

[JuztBe]

Does this forbids "Less that X %" disclosing of odds? 

 

[Eaglerino]

1 hour ago, justpoet said:

Inb4 requirements like this apply elsewhere and..."This boss will not drop your loot this time when you kill it" in WoW and similar games, so why bother...

I would imagine monster drop rates as the main mechanic in a game are a far, far different aspect than a box you buy with real money

[thorhammerz]

1 hour ago, justpoet said:

Inb4 requirements like this apply elsewhere and..."This boss will not drop your loot this time when you kill it" in WoW and similar games, so why bother...

Ultra-rare-uber-shiny-ePeen drop rate: 1 / 299,539. 

[justpoet]

So, I made the joke, but…now the serious comment.

 

Why should game developers be forced to show odds for something you can do without even using money (though you obviously can also use money) when casinos don't have to post the odds for a slot machine?  While many of them do have to release figures of what % got some sort of payout as a summary at various points, that's never on the machines, nor does it differentiate between "jackpot" and "got some of the money back you bet".  I mean, sure, making the odds public are cool and all, but why not require that for the ACTUAL gambling when you're saying this needs to be done because it is gambling?

 

Also, how does this affect "positive" mechanics where it is random, but then dynamic weighting is added if you haven't gotten any rare drop in a while, to make the rare actually more likely until you get one, to help eliminate "very bad luck"?  Blizz games do this, as an example, with Heroes of the Storm and Overwatch loot boxes.

 

Edit: Here's an example of the actual gambling payback stuff for slot machines btw, and the laws requiring amount of payback, by state in the US.

https://www.americancasinoguide.com/slot-machine-payback-statistics.html

[schwellmo92]

2 hours ago, seoz said:

Well shit, now Epic's decision to explicitly show what's inside loot boxes was a legal move after all rather than a decision out of heart.

 

 

Sounds kinda different IMO. These new rules wouldn’t even apply to Fortnite as it’s not retroactively applies.

[porina]

2 minutes ago, justpoet said:

Why should game developers be forced to show odds for something you can do without even using money (though you obviously can also use money) when casinos don't have to post the odds for a slot machine?  While many of them do have to release figures of what % got some sort of payout as a summary at various points, that's never on the machines, nor does it differentiate between "jackpot" and "got some of the money back you bet".  I mean, sure, making the odds public are cool and all, but why not require that for the ACTUAL gambling when you're saying this needs to be done because it is gambling?

Rules may vary around the world, but casinos are a regulated industry. On a long average, players on luck content (not skill based) will slowly lose money. In the short term, you could be up, you could be down. Overall, you'll be down a bit more than up. They work on long averages and rely on volume to get their revenue up.

 

Obviously the above mechanism is different from a lootbox, where the goal typically is a desirable item. You get it or you don't. You don't slowly lose money, instead some might keep pumping ever more in the vague hopes of getting it. In that sense, it is far worse than a casino for the weak willed.

[justpoet]

Just now, porina said:

Rules may vary around the world, but casinos are a regulated industry. On a long average, players on luck content (not skill based) will slowly lose money. In the short term, you could be up, you could be down. Overall, you'll be down a bit more than up. They work on long averages and rely on volume to get their revenue up.

 

Obviously the above mechanism is different from a lootbox, where the goal typically is a desirable item. You get it or you don't. You don't slowly lose money, instead some might keep pumping ever more in the vague hopes of getting it. In that sense, it is far worse than a casino for the weak willed.

So…like the unregulated carnival games?  Still don't see why this should be more heavily regulated than any of the others.

[samcool55]

Yeeaa once it has a number it's a lot easier to explain that they are basically a gambling mechanism.

I would actually like to see them gone completely but I guess it's all about da moneh in the end...

[porina]

3 minutes ago, justpoet said:

So…like the unregulated carnival games?  Still don't see why this should be more heavily regulated than any of the others.

You're unlikely to put big bucks in carnival game though... I don't think the proposed regulation in gaming is that heavy. The casinos for example they are tightly regulated, but not necessarily in the same visible way. 

[justpoet]

1 hour ago, samcool55 said:

Yeeaa once it has a number it's a lot easier to explain that they are basically a gambling mechanism.

I would actually like to see them gone completely but I guess it's all about da moneh in the end...

Easy answer is to just make the items purchasable directly (at whatever prices people will pay) and the loot boxes not purchasable.  This keeps the "surprise mechanic" of unexpected delight without the gambling addiction, and still lets people pump money into the game.

[TechyBen]

4 hours ago, justpoet said:

Inb4 requirements like this apply elsewhere and..."This boss will not drop your loot this time when you kill it" in WoW and similar games, so why bother...

You. You have no clue, right?

"We banned poison and exploding puppy orphanages".

justpoet: Inb4 they ban our knives and forks!!!

 

PS, those carnival games *are* regulated in a lot of countries.

[mr moose]

6 hours ago, justpoet said:

Easy answer is to just make the items purchasable directly (at whatever prices people will pay) and the loot boxes not purchasable.  This keeps the "surprise mechanic" of unexpected delight without the gambling addiction, and still lets people pump money into the game.

I'd go the other way, make everything that comes from a paid loot box untradable.  If you buy access to a box you can't trade the contents.   If you earn access through game play you can. 

[Kisai]

10 hours ago, justpoet said:

So, I made the joke, but…now the serious comment.

 

Why should game developers be forced to show odds for something you can do without even using money (though you obviously can also use money) when casinos don't have to post the odds for a slot machine?

When was the last time you were in a Casino. They absolutely do. https://www.bcresponsiblegambling.ca/understanding-gambling/odds-probability Horse and dog racing absolutely has odds. So does betting on sporting events like football. Even scratch tickets, Lotto and things like pull-tabs have stated odds on the machine or ticket.

 

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In BC Casinos, most chance-based games have their payout odds listed on the tables or machines. House advantage for these games is generally between 1% and 10%, with greater advantages being enjoyed on higher payout outcomes such as bonuses, baccarat ties, sic bo specifics, etc.

 

That doesn't mean every jurisdiction or casino does (eg ones that are not subject to provincial/state/federal gambling laws.) 

 

A game that posts the odds of winning, is at least being up front with how much money you'd have to spend to gaurantee a prize. If the odds of winning a rare item is 1:100, and each pull of the idiot lever is $1, then they know they will be spending at least $100, and that doesn't guarantee them the rare item they actually want. In one gacha game I played that had a "gauranteed rare" every 100 tries, the first rare was on the 87th pull, and the second was on the 45th, and two others were on the 30-somethings. Now how much would it cost if I paid money? that game is roughly $250 guarantee a rare item win assuming the worst scenario, and since there's 16 rare items, even spending $4000 does not guarantee me the one I want.

 

A casino , other than card games (which are more skill than luck) only wishes people would spend money on things they don't have to pay people to operate or service. Big gamblers spend thousands or even millions, but not on slot machines, no they go for the card table games, nothing else, those are the only thing that you can "beat the house odds" on with enough skill, and even then they will readily throw people out if they are winning too much.

 

There is no "winning back" anything with gachapon/loot boxes. It's all FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) due to time-limited events/items, and Sunk Costs (well, I'm this deep, better keep going until I win.) That is the same thing gambling addicts do, they keep playing under this misguided notion that eventually they will win their "investment" back.

 

If you're equally willing to light that money on fire, don't even start gambling/lootbox/gachapon.