NVIDIA Could Capitalize on AMD GCN Not Supporting Direct3D 12_1

[Eroda]

all we can do is wait by december next year we will have a very good idea of whether AMD can turn it around or not

[Briggsy]

There's a massive $600 million chunk due Jan 1st 2019. It must be in full in a JP Morgan Escrow account on that day or it triggers automatic bankruptcy. Someone posted the detailed documentation here on LTT and for the life of me I can't find the post. AMD's not in a good financial place at all.

 

If AMD continues to run a loss, they will more than likely move debt around between creditors come 2019. JP Morgan doesn't care where the transfer comes from. This is the most likely outcome *if* AMD stays in the red until 2019, but continues to pull in large revenue. A large corporation like AMD that has revenue as great or greater than Nvidia won't have much trouble kicking a $600M can down the road, provided they remain competitive. 

[Victorious Secret]

If AMD continues to run a loss, they will more than likely move debt around between creditors come 2019. JP Morgan doesn't care where the transfer comes from. This is the most likely outcome *if* AMD stays in the red until 2019, but continues to pull in large revenue. A large corporation like AMD that tends to gross as much or more than Nvidia won't have much trouble kicking a $600M can down the road, provided they remain competitive. 

 

A big IF. JP might not want to engage in nonsense and demand the money straight up, who knows what the climate will be like 6 months from now much less by 2019. 

 

For AMDs sake, I hope they get the sales they need not only to pay down that debt but actually start investing back into their R/D on a level that to be brutally honest they just don't do anymore. 

[patrickjp93]

If AMD continues to run a loss, they will more than likely move debt around between creditors come 2019. JP Morgan doesn't care where the transfer comes from. This is the most likely outcome *if* AMD stays in the red until 2019, but continues to pull in large revenue. A large corporation like AMD that has revenue as great or greater than Nvidia won't have much trouble kicking a $600M can down the road, provided they remain competitive. 

AMD's revenues are nowhere close to Nvidia's. I don't think too many banks are willing to back it at this point, and the FTC stopped Intel from holding more than half the debt for (I hope) obvious reasons. I don't think AMD would have as easy a time as you stipulate getting someone to take the pressure off.

[DXMember]

The graph I posted shows most recent quarter results as well as the same time last year for dGPU market share, which excludes Intel for obvious reasons. The graph you are talking about is not only dGPU sales it includes iGPU and APU sales, so no. If you attempted to read the conversation that took place you would know this.

which is irrelevant...

it's like Ferrari sold more cars than Porsche in the last 6 months but on the streets there are 50k more Porsches driving and 3mil more Volkswagens

[Briggsy]

AMD's revenues are nowhere close to Nvidia's. I don't think too many banks are willing to back it at this point, and the FTC stopped Intel from holding more than half the debt for (I hope) obvious reasons. I don't think AMD would have as easy a time as you stipulate getting someone to take the pressure off.

 

That's why I put a couple caveats in my post in regards to their performance.

 

AMD currently have huge backing and support going into the embedded market due to the efficiency of GCN, and partnerships with Samsung and others in the HSA foundation. They recently revealed their 7 year partnership with Hynix to create HBM, and who knows what other research they are doing behind locked doors. Their annual revenue for the past 3 years has been 5.4B, 5.3B, and 5.5B. Nvidia's Revenue for the past 3 years was 4.28B, 4.13B and 4.68B. obviously Nvidia have far less overhead, and their R&D isn't as far reaching as AMD's, so their Net income is far better. last year Nvidia's Net was around 1Bil.

 

So yes, I do believe that unless AMD pull a Homer (simpsons reference), they will likely get a loan elsewhere to pay JP Morgan if they aren't profitable by 2019. Whether its from Samsung, or another Bank or Creditor, who knows. 

[spartaman64]

Did you forget Denver Tegra? There's a basis for it. And besides, if AMD as a company dies with debts still in play, JP Morgan (and Intel too technically) gets to auction off the IP to make money back, and I'm sure the FTC would make sure Intel doesn't abuse that. Nvidia would be first in line to buy if it gets the X86 license. Now, add in the fact Nvidia could hire Jim Keller (assuming Intel or IBM didn't manage to poach him first). That would put Nvidia pretty much on track for the research side of it, even if it cost an arm and leg up front.

 

I know I say this a lot, but you really have to look at all the angels of a problem before you start hypothesizing about various potential outcomes. I think Nvidia would be the best company to take over CPUs from AMD in all honesty. The drive is there, and the money is there. It just lacks the IP and a CPU design leader, though whoever devised Denver is no slouch even if new to the field. And if Intel picks up all of ATI as I suspect it would, it would mean a whole new era of innovation war between two of the richest semiconductor companies in the world. Huawei would brain drained constantly with these two poaching new talent.

there is probably a big difference between desktop and tablet cpus so im not too sure. the only way i see it working is if nvidia hires a lot of the amd employees

[patrickjp93]

That's why I put a couple caveats in my post in regards to their performance.

 

AMD currently have huge backing and support going into the embedded market due to the efficiency of GCN, and partnerships with Samsung and others in the HSA foundation. They recently revealed their 7 year partnership with Hynix to create HBM, and who knows what other research they are doing behind locked doors. Their annual revenue for the past 3 years has been 5.4B, 5.3B, and 5.5B. Nvidia's Revenue for the past 3 years was 4.28B, 4.13B and 4.68B. obviously Nvidia have far less overhead, and their R&D isn't as far reaching as AMD's, so their Net income is far better. last year Nvidia's Net was around 1Bil.

 

So yes, I do believe that unless AMD pull a Homer (simpsons reference), they will likely get a loan elsewhere to pay JP Morgan if they aren't profitable by 2019. Whether its from Samsung, or another Bank or Creditor, who knows. 

I'd argue Nvidia's research is far more reaching between CUDA, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and the military, especially given their research budget is far larger than AMD's.

 

Though still, neither of them are involved in half as much as Intel is. That's a list of industries and applications a mile long.

 

We'll see how HSA pans out, though I'm not particularly hopeful as a programmer. Just getting an environment set up to program for it is a pain, as the instructions on Github are woefully incomplete, and to tune performance is a nightmare and a half in my experience, though perhaps @Opcode can give me some pointers on that now that I'm set to replace my GTX 570 with the R9 380X.

[Briggsy]

I'd argue Nvidia's research is far more reaching between CUDA, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and the military, especially given their research budget is far larger than AMD's.

 

Though still, neither of them are involved in half as much as Intel is. That's a list of industries and applications a mile long.

 

no doubt about that. If intel was a ship, the titanic would be a lifeboat.

[patrickjp93]

there is probably a big difference between desktop and tablet cpus so im not too sure. the only way i see it working is if nvidia hires a lot of the amd employees

Nvidia was targetting tablets that don't need a lot of computational power, but the same concepts scale up. An optimization cache would still work at higher frequencies with more cores and more ALUs. As to whether or not Nvidia can get into desktops with ARM...I doubt that. They might license the technique to IBM for the Power 9 chips though. That'd be interesting to say the least.

[ErickS89]

im not even concerned DX12 isnt out yet and it wil take time for it to reach critcal mass so possibly by then the support for some of the more important features will be on the majority of medium/highend GCN stuff

If the Xbox One supports DX12 then it'll almost be an instant switch to DX12 "for newer games obviously" or unless devs go back in and support DX12 but that's a stretch.

[Briggsy]

If the Xbox One supports DX12 then it'll almost be an instant switch to DX12 "for newer games obviously" or unless devs go back in and support DX12 but that's a stretch.

 

Microsoft also said DX12 is being adopted by developers as fast or faster than DX9. if xbone is not dx12_0 feature level compliant, that might suck for adoption of dx12_0 features on PC, at least with multi-plat games.

 

An interesting side note however, is  that the hardware is the same in the PS4, which means the PS4 is fully compliant with Vulkan, the next stage of OpenGL that was build from the ashes of the Mantle API. Microsoft is touting performance gains on the XBone with DX12, but those gains would be nullified by Vulkan on the PS4. It's something I haven't heard talked about much, if at all. Not entirely sure why...

[BiG StroOnZ]

which is irrelevant...

it's like Ferrari sold more cars than Porsche in the last 6 months but on the streets there are 50k more Porsches driving and 3mil more Volkswagens

 

You aren't very bright are you. NVIDIA has held market share for more than 3 years now, which means they have more total dGPU sales than AMD.

 

Your analogy is what is irrelevant. The other guy tried to make the same argument, you should have read that conversation beforehand. You cant have it both ways.

[DXMember]

You aren't very bright are you. NVIDIA has held market share for more than 3 years now, which means they have more total dGPU sales than AMD.

 

Your analogy is what is irrelevant. The other guy tried to make the same argument, you should have read that conversation beforehand. You cant have it both ways.

Kek, you can't judge how many GPU's of each vendor are being used from sales, you have to watch something like Valve's Steam client PC configuration polls.

 

Got another analogy for you - there is a saying that Volvo will go bankrupt - is that because they make bad cars that don't sell? No it's quite the oposite they are known for making very good quality cars, but people still don't buy then - because they don't break as easily and are in use for longer periods of time and most of the people that are in the market for a Volvo car already have them.

What's that? There is a rumour nVidia deliberately gimps Kepler and other older architecture GPUs to sell more Maxwell?

What's that again? nVidia accidentally fried some GPUs with their new driver release?

And I would predict your argument would be that they fixed the performance issue for Kepler in the driver update. But none of that would be necessery if they didn't introduce the problem in the first place. And they would hardly do anything to fix it if there wouldn't be just total outrage by the comunity.

They do not show a great example of how to treat customers, I do not agree with their business model and how they implement it.

 

Get real nVidia is cash grabbing the market atm, while almost 50% cheaper and a year older Radeons can still keep up with the performance of 980.

And the holy Titan X is almost double the price of dual GPU Radeon that still offers more performance.

 

And now I'll be shut and roll my dices for 16.06.2015.

[othertomperson]

Also, Nvidia has it in them and a vested interest in destroying AMD sooner rather than later.

 

No they do not. AMD have just enough market share to prevent Nvidia from finding themselves on the end of a whole bunch of anti-competitive lawsuits. Nvidia have zero interest in even increasing their market share beyond what they already have, let alone killing AMD outright.

 

I can't speak for anyone else, but I want AMD to actually be good again and to release something resembling a product. That'd be nice. While they've sat on their arses for the last two years, Nvidia and Intel have both become as dominant as either particularly wants to be, and have stagnated to the point where Nvidia and Intel's top end consumer-grade products are $1000 and AMD have literally nothing that comes close, either in terms of performance or in terms of release year.

 

They've spent the last two years or so doing next to nothing but rebrands and overclocks and it's the consumer who has suffered as a result.

[BiG StroOnZ]

Kek, you can't judge how many GPU's of each vendor are being used from sales, you have to watch something like Valve's Steam client PC configuration polls.

 

Got another analogy for you - there is a saying that Volvo will go bankrupt - is that because they make bad cars that don't sell? No it's quite the oposite they are known for making very good quality cars, but people still don't buy then - because they don't break as easily and are in use for longer periods of time and most of the people that are in the market for a Volvo car already have them.

What's that? There is a rumour nVidia deliberately gimps Kepler and other older architecture GPUs to sell more Maxwell?

What's that again? nVidia accidentally fried some GPUs with their new driver release?

And I would predict your argument would be that they fixed the performance issue for Kepler in the driver update. But none of that would be necessery if they didn't introduce the problem in the first place. And they would hardly do anything to fix it if there wouldn't be just total outrage by the comunity.

They do not show a great example of how to treat customers, I do not agree with their business model and how they implement it.

 

Get real nVidia is cash grabbing the market atm, while almost 50% cheaper and a year older Radeons can still keep up with the performance of 980.

And the holy Titan X is almost double the price of dual GPU Radeon that still offers more performance.

 

And now I'll be shut and roll my dices for 16.06.2015.

 

You're a terrible troll, and I refuse to feed you. Enjoy your short stay on these forums.

[s3ns3]

does it matter? nvidia has around 80% of the dedicated gpu market and now with most of the amd 300 being rebrands(and the new cards watercooled lol) even the biggest amd fanboy will have nvidia gpu when the first dx 12 title hits

[ACatWithThumbs]

I doubt anyone will use those features.
The consoles do not even support DX12_0 graphic features and it seems to change the core of how volumetrics are handled by the GPU.
We also have barely any games with physical based rendering simply because it's impossible to implement if the game is also on ps3/xbox360.
Not to mention that we still have basic DX11 features missing in many games like fading soft shadows or tesselation based LOD.
 

[LAwLz]

In the words of the great Glenwig, "Whatever Nvidia is winning at suddenly becomes the most important thing."

What a funny is that when everyone though AMD would have better DX12 support then that because the most important thing for all the AMD fanboys. Both sides are very very guilty of this. We saw it very clearly with Fermi as well. Nvidia releases a hot and power hungry card and AMD fanboys all of a sudden care a lot about that. The 200 series from AMD comes around and all of a sudden it's Nvidia users who care about power and heat, while AMD users don't care.

Fanboys on both sides are intolerable hypocrites (and we have a lot of fanboys on this forum).

I mean seriously... Neither the 300 series nor any games that use DirectX 12 are out and people are already fighting over which features are important and will be widely used, and which cards won't support it. There are conflicting reports coming out every day. How about everyone just calms down and let us all wait for actual, undisputable facts to come out?

[Kinda Bottlenecked]

does it matter? nvidia has around 80% of the dedicated gpu market and now with most of the amd 300 being rebrands(and the new cards watercooled lol) even the biggest amd fanboy will have nvidia gpu when the first dx 12 title hits

Why would an AMD fanboy buy a Nvidia card if the old amd cards already support dx 12?

[patrickjp93]

No they do not. AMD have just enough market share to prevent Nvidia from finding themselves on the end of a whole bunch of anti-competitive lawsuits. Nvidia have zero interest in even increasing their market share beyond what they already have, let alone killing AMD outright.

 

I can't speak for anyone else, but I want AMD to actually be good again and to release something resembling a product. That'd be nice. While they've sat on their arses for the last two years, Nvidia and Intel have both become as dominant as either particularly wants to be, and have stagnated to the point where Nvidia and Intel's top end consumer-grade products are $1000 and AMD have literally nothing that comes close, either in terms of performance or in terms of release year.

 

They've spent the last two years or so doing next to nothing but rebrands and overclocks and it's the consumer who has suffered as a result.

Beating a competitor out of the market doesn't invite lawsuits unless you do it illegally (in an anti-competitive manner). Monopolies are legal if earned the correct way. Seriously, do you people bother doing any research before opening your mouths irl or posting online? Nvidia has every interesting in getting rid of AMD forever so it can diversify and get its hands on much of the CPU and APU IP that AMD possessed, even though all the GPU architecture IP would likely go to Intel.

 

Intel is far from done or happy with its position. It wants Nvidia out of the picture in the HPC space so it can justify a buyout to the FTC. With Nvidia's low-end dGPU sales dying off and its mid-end likely to disappear in 2017 if AMD throws HBM on its Zen/Zen+ APUs, and with its accelerator marketshare and new contracts drying up in the HPC space, it needs to diversify to keep the shareholders happy. If Intel drives Nvidia into the floor, the shareholders will be open to a buyout to a far more lucrative company, and the FTC will have no legal grounds for blocking it since Intel and Nvidia would no longer be in competition.

 

This game is a Hell of a lot bigger than the consumer market. If Intel gets its hands on Nvidia, it would be more than happy to finish AMD off, because it could just poach Jim Keller, Mark Papermaster, and Raja Koduri. At that point IBM will have already been made defunct (the biggest HPC platform for Teslas is IBM systems), and it wasn't interested in x86 anymore anyway. Oracle has no desire to go into the consumer segment either, and Intel owns Nvidia. The only remotely relevant firm left to take the reigns would be Qualcomm, because the FTC would never let a foreign firm be given access to producing x86 chips out of national security concerns.

 

Nvidia wants AMD dead so it can stay in the game. Intel wants AMD alive another 4-5 years so it can pick up a wounded Nvidia and then be free to crush AMD at its own leisure. It's better for consumers if AMD rolls over and dies before Intel gets its golden opportunity.

[mr moose]

Fanboys on both sides are intolerable hypocrites (and we have a lot of fanboys on this forum).

I mean seriously... Neither the 300 series nor any games that use DirectX 12 are out and people are already fighting over which features are important and will be widely used, and which cards won't support it. There are conflicting reports coming out every day. How about everyone just calms down and let us all wait for actual, undisputable facts to come out?

 

Careful, I pointed out exactly the same ting in the other thread and was told I was wrong and was making assumptions.

 

Some people don't like hearing their arguments are based on an emotional response to news that mostly centres around unreleased/tested cards.

[TroubleKlef]

I can't believe someone brought in the argument of Intel integrated GPUs as dominant marketshare lmao... it has been known that Nvidia controls the larger portion of the dGPU market. 

[Techhog]

does it matter? nvidia has around 80% of the dedicated gpu market and now with most of the amd 300 being rebrands(and the new cards watercooled lol) even the biggest amd fanboy will have nvidia gpu when the first dx 12 title hits

So you're expecting/hoping for an Nvidia monopoly and AMD's death by the end of the year?

[patrickjp93]

So you're expecting/hoping for an Nvidia monopoly and AMD's death by the end of the year?

I'm a broken record at this point, and you can find my full-length explanation in a couple different threads. If you want long-term competition, it's better AMD dies now rather than 5-6 years later. Intel would get the GPU IP, and Nvidia would grab the CPU IP, reigniting competition on both fronts.