Desktop GPU sales hit 20 year low, 42 percent fewer than last year.

[Tan3l6]

Just now, SimplyChunk said:

This Data doesn't account for used GPU sales right?

Exactly - miners are filling the void of new cards imo.

[Monkey Dust]

3 hours ago, SimplyChunk said:

Plus the serious lack of AAA games these days...

Yep, buying a new game to discover it brings your PC to its knees is a pretty good motivator to buy a new GPU. Replaying old games because nothing new has caught your attention, not so much.

 

The only other reason I buy a new GPU, is if the current one fails. I imagine I'm not alone in my GPU buying habits.

 

I don't know if it's an overhang from covid and the disruption it caused to development, or if the industry is just moving away from big releases to keeping online games going with microtransactions, like GTA online. Either way, it's depressing.

[leadeater]

8 hours ago, Heliian said:

That's just eth.

Yes, the most commonly mined cryptocoin. BTC being the next and GPUs are not used for that. So it's just ETH is saying "it's just almost entirely everything" so it's a moot point.

 

8 hours ago, Heliian said:

The fact that crypto died and there is now a glut of gpus means that it was the major stressor on the market.  

No, no it doesn't. Stock was already returning, backlogs of buyers were already clearing. Manufacturing was already recovering. Correlation is not causation. And while I have said mining sales is a contributor to demand the evidence is, actual proper evidence, that the volume of demand was not and never was so significantly high to have caused 2+ years of shortages.

 

Even the last mining boom that causes shortages at the launch of new GPUs did not last 2 years and the mining boom then was longer than 2 years. Demand spikes aren't the same thing as a sustained demand or a sustained issue.

 

8 hours ago, Heliian said:

Chip shortages still exist but there is for sure no shortage of gpus now. 

Not even close to the levels prior and the current demand is low for many obvious reasons. RTX 30 series was a genuinely great products and the launch marketing and pricing was very good, that's why so many wanted it. As time went by and people learned what the pricing situation was going to stay as the demand dropped as appetites to spend that much went away, as it is now.

 

To try and blame a single thing like mining are a core reason for GPUs is just bad reasoning when you can look at rather simple mathematical evidence like probable number of GPUs actually being used vs how many are getting made. Lets just say 25% of GPUs were being sold to miners, that still leaves 75% for everyone else. That means if mining goes away entirely that would still have left a significant amount of people without GPUs at the height of the shortages also while a not insignificant amount extra would have gotten GPUs.

 

Demand was really high, supply was really low. This would have been true with or without GPU mining.

[porina]

Just looking at November 2022 Steam Hardware Survey for nvidia GPUs only from Maxwell onwards. Why not AMD? It significantly increases the work needed and unlikely to give us any better info than looking at nvidia alone. They only made up 15% so less than even Pascal generation alone. Also December results weren't out yet, but I could compare once they do appear.

 

I took the listed GPUs and arranged it by generation. It breaks down as follows:

 

Ampere 22.43% (of which desktop 14.56, laptop 7.87)

Turing 24.23% (of which GTX 14.25, RTX 9.98)

Pascal 16.54%

Maxwell 2.49%

 

Percentages are of all GPUs, including non-nvidia. Note this leaves exactly 10% of nvidia GPU share unaccounted for. This will probably be earlier or lesser volume cards that did not get listed individually. For example, I didn't see any Titans or Quadros.

 

Anyway, who's going to buy a new GPU? Some keep up with the latest so they'll buy regardless, but are probably only a tiny minority. Most would upgrade either opportunistically, for example, if something much better comes out at a good price, or if they really have to. Like the old GPU can't play games at a decent setting, or just died. I'd estimate this around 2 generations, or 4 years.

 

Maxwell at a whopping 8 years is getting long in the tooth. 980 Ti might be ok for some 1080p gaming nowadays but below that might be primarily esports territory. 

 

Pascal is hanging on somewhat. At over 6 years since release, again the higher models still have some 1440p tier performance left in them.

 

Turing is still the dominant generation of installed user base, although given the shortages of recent years they were still being made and sold in parallel to Ampere. On that note, the previous generation Ampere is almost caught up with Turing. 

 

New sales now may be of interest to those still on Pascal or with older Turing GPUs. That's a good portion of potential upgrades if people want to do them. Others have mentioned before, sales numbers only look at new sales. I suspect those far behind the curve may still upgrade via used market.

 

Also note the Ampere numbers, where laptop specific models are broken out. This doesn't rule out desktop models being used in laptops but we don't have such visibility. Roughly one third of Ampere are laptop models. As I speculated earlier, if there are more gaming laptop users these days, this may be seen as a reduction to desktop GPU sales. Unfortunately it is not easy to try and find this info for earlier generations. There's some listed for Maxwell but I'm unsure how useful it is given how late it is in its life. BTW I did check, 980 Ti doesn't make the list any more.

 

Maxwell 2.49%

970 0.79
960 0.76
960M 0.32
950 0.25
950M 0.21
980 0.16

[Kisai]

1 hour ago, leadeater said:

 

No, no it doesn't. Stock was already returning, backlogs of buyers were already clearing. Manufacturing was already recovering. Correlation is not causation. And while I have said mining sales is a contributor to demand the evidence is, actual proper evidence, that the volume of demand was not and never was so significantly high to have caused 2+ years of shortages.

 

Cause it's not "demand" when people opt out. It's "demand" when retail channels order X quantities and only X-n is available. Since the stores were holding back inventory for their own builds, that just made the scalping worse. There were far more people who wanted a GPU, but could not afford one, or knew these prices were insane and didn't buy one at all.

 

Just a reminder that the scalper prices you see on eBay are not reality, but stores do casually glance at those prices when setting their own prices so they aren't leaving cash on the table. That is what the stores were doing with the 30 series when they had inventory but were not allowing online sales. More likely the wholesalers themselves if a store wasn't big enough to get their inventory directly from the manufacturer.

 

Nvidia's present "low sales" is now the upside down version, where retail channels have ordered X quantities and got 100% of their order filled, but now nobody wants them at those scalper prices the previous 30 series was at.

 

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/bad-news-for-scalpers-rtx-4080-ebay-sales-data

Quote

eBay tends to be the favored scalper route in the U.S. If we look at the overall eBay sales numbers for the RTX 4080 and RTX 4090 graphics cards over the past week, there's direct data indicating the lukewarm reception for the 4080.

 

• GeForce RTX 4080 sales numbers are incredibly low compared to the flagship, with the RTX 4090 outselling the RTX 4080 3.4 to 1.
• An average of eight RTX 4080 graphics cards are sold per day on eBay US.
• Sales of the RTX 4080 on eBay have flat-lined or declined since the launch date.
• The average RTX 4080 on eBay is priced about 30% over MSRP, which is noticeably less lucrative than the RTX 4090 (38% over MSRP).
• The average RTX 4090 price on eBay during its first week was 54% over MSRP, with 64 cards sold per day.
• In the wake of the RTX 4080 launch, the flagship 4090 seems to be getting more popular.

So the scalpers got burned when their 200% profits didn't emerge and had to settle for 40% and declining.

 

Do you see that $40 dollar difference between the most expensive 4080 and the cheapest 4090? The $600 difference between the cheapest and most expensive 4090? The $500 difference between the cheapest and most expensive 4080?

At this time the cheapest 4090 on ebay is 2,682.79$ and the cheapest 4080 is 1,779.99 from newegg. Nvidia's website lists the 4080 as 1,659.99 and the 4090 as 2,099.99.

 

By all accounts the "sold out" 4090's look like they're being scalped here too, since they're all sold out while eBay lists availability. But since there is a complete collapse in mining, how long do you think the 4090's availability will be low? Will it be "never" like it was before? Because if you drill down on the 4090's you get the "not available online" which is what the stores did last time scalpers were buying them.

 

 

 

[leadeater]

9 hours ago, Kisai said:

Cause it's not "demand" when people opt out.

Eh? Not sure what your point is. If people aren't buying then of course that isn't demand, you know like now. But thing is the demand was there, even at high prices and we know it. Demand doesn't last forever because there isn't an infinite amount of buyers or buyers at a certain price point. So saying after 2 years "oh look lots of supply now" and then trying to tie it to a factor like only mining is very short sighted and doesn't really encompass the full situation so will inevitably be wrong or partially wrong.

 

I don't think anyone has said mining sales have had no effect but some effect isn't the same thing as being THE blame for the shortages. My 25% in my example is extremely generous to the side of that type of argument because like I pointed out earlier that would mean every single GPU used for mining would have to be getting replaced every quarter which is not happening, so the more realistic we make the cycle through rate of GPUs the weaker the argument gets for how much impact it actually had.

 

I understand the desire to have something to blame but sadly there isn't a single thing other than the pandemic itself. Too many freely discount other silicon parts that were also severely impacted like AMD EPYC CPUs, Broadcom 25Gb/100Gb NICs and Raid SOCs/Cards, RDIMM ram, some SSDs, some HDDs, PSUs above 800W. The number of servers I've had delayed for more than 6 months with multiple cannot build reasons from HPE is long and often and none of which were due to GPUs which were actually for me the easiest to obtain. Getting Nvidia A40's has not once been a problem and at reasonable pricing (relative to MSRP).

 

When it comes to retail supply I firmly put more blame on scalping than mining and I have zero sympathy for anyone sitting on a garage full of GPUs that they can't sell for more than they purchased them for.

[mr moose]

21 hours ago, Heliian said:

No

That's just eth.  The fact that crypto died and there is now a glut of gpus means that it was the major stressor on the market.  

Chip shortages still exist but there is for sure no shortage of gpus now. 

Which economic school did you graduate from?  Because I'd like to avoid it and anyone who comes from it.

 

https://thebusinessprofessor.com/en_US/investments-trading-financial-markets/rubber-band-effect-definition

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/economic-cycle/

https://meshpayments.com/blog/bracing-for-economic-pendulum-swings/

 

Simple fact is when a market grows or shrinks too fast it has this almost predictable propensity to swing back in the other direction just as hard until it balances out again.  That is the basic character of a supply/demand economy.

 

 

 

 

[Fendrick]

On 12/30/2022 at 7:36 PM, porina said:

I'd kinda agree that at 1440p or lower, mid range GPUs like a 3060 or equivalent are sufficient for a high end experience. But for a great 4k experience I still think there is a lot of performance to price improvement needed. For native rendering only the 4090 makes it so you don't have to worry about performance, with lesser GPUs still needing upscaling technologies and/or reduced settings to help out.

 

Guess it depends on expectations but I've used a 3070 with 4k TV, and I consider it entry level for that use case. For sure, it works with appropriate settings, but I think 3080 is the >60fps high+ sweet spot. I'm temporarily not using that TV so I'm reduced to a 1440p monitor, and in that scenario I don't find the 3070 lacking.

Ex 3070 user here at 1440P, 4K was too much for the 3070, sure if you want 30-60FPS.

 

6900 XT is leaps and bounds faster.

 

My local CEX still has my 3070 in their window 2 months later and there is a 3080 Ti, a 6900 XT and a 6600 XT that have not moved.

[Fendrick]

On 1/1/2023 at 1:23 AM, Gamer Schnitzel said:

I literally said a few months ago that PC gaming is dying and that in the future everyone will play on mobile phones but the dumb fucks linked me the rising Steam sales because they did not understand that has zero correlation.

 

The fact is that kids today simply do not play PC and if kids don't play PC then nobody will. Companies are not going to be producing games for a bunch of 50 year olds that couldn't get laid all their life. The reason why PC gamers got a PC in the first place was because when PCs came out everyone was buying them, they were just new and also very useful. People installed games on them and PC gaming was born. Nobody went to the store to buy a PC just because of games. But today people do not have any reason to buy a PC. Kids do their homework either at school or they get a cheap laptop that cannot run games. If the parents can afford it they'll buy the kid a console and if not the kid will play Fortnite or Genshin Impact on the phone but most kids these days don't play any games because of social media. Being a degenerate back in the day was fine. Nobody at school knew what you did at home so you could play WoW all day and not have to feel bad. Today you are frequently messaged at home and you are required to post and report everything that you do. If you play games instead of watching Tik Tok videos people will think you are weird so a lot of people, especially girls, are put off video games. Back in the day you could barely play an online game for 5 minutes without running into a chick but today literally no girls play unless they are degenerates themselves while back in the day you could meet loads of non degen girls who literally had nothing to do with video games but they just played for the fun of it. But since social media put pressure on kids to pretend they are cool they are gone.

Without kids there will be no PC gaming no matter how boomerish you guys wanna be.

 

The only way to save PC gaming is what I have posted trillion times now. Ban social media for anyone under 16. Online games will be blooded with new players because kids will no longer spent 90% of their free time scrolling through social media feeds telling them to kill themselves on video for likes.

And the US and EU have to come together and fine Jensen for several billions for making PCs unaffordable for a large part of the population + give him a short deadline to release an extremely affordable GPU that is freely available at cost to all PC builder companies to start selling a PC that can run basic games for £500.

 

If you want to save PC gaming do this. Or you can pretend you know better but then I suggest you start downloading Roblox and Genshin Impact on your phones already guys.

Anecdotal but I built a Ryzen G series system for a carer who takes care of my disabled mother, her 3 boys wanted a PC for Fortnite, I did mention that a dedicated GPU will net you better performance across the board but as long as you don't turn all the settings up to maximum then the G series will do fine, this was during the pandemic.

 

All I am going to say is, games attract people and some kids find a PC to be much cooler than a console, it's not as straight and narrow as you think it is.

 

PC gaming don't care about age, it is something that exists, sure the most extreme side is that Steam goes away, I hardly see that happening.

 

 

The female rubbish you spoke of is a projection of your own self. Be that you want sex, or don't have sex, or you have sex and think it is the biggest win in the world. You have also kept your mind to a very narrow view and that is wht you see, the whole world is not you and your experience.

 

Calling others boomers is discrediting yourself as you can't add anything with more nuance and detail other than calling oppositional opinions or talking points as "Boomer" stifling any real intelligent discussion.

[mr moose]

23 hours ago, Fendrick said:

Calling others boomers is discrediting yourself as you can't add anything with more nuance and detail other than calling oppositional opinions or talking points as "Boomer" stifling any real intelligent discussion.

One of the things I genuinely wish I was going to live long enough to see are all these kids who throw out the term boomer like an insult or accusation when they hit 60+ and the younger generations are doing it to them. 

[SimplyChunk]

1 hour ago, mr moose said:

One of the things I genuinely wish I was going to live long enough to see are all these kids who throw out the term boomer like an insult or accusation when they hit 60+ and the younger generations are doing it to them. 

What goes around comes around

[Dracarris]

So at least the 4090 still stells at 10%-15% above MSRP in Europe but is readily available. Does anyone here have any info from his crystal ball as to how that price is going to develop in light of these bad sales numbers?

[porina]

7 minutes ago, Dracarris said:

So at least the 4090 still stells at 10%-15% above MSRP in Europe but is readily available. Does anyone here have any info from his crystal ball as to how that price is going to develop in light of these bad sales numbers?

4090 is its own special place and I doubt its pricing will do much. Without digging, AIB pricing is more variable so nvidia's pricing doesn't apply.

 

In general, I would have no expectations of lower pricing due to low demand. This low demand was predictable, so no one wants to over-produce beyond what they think the market can reasonably take up. They don't want to get into a price war with each other to shift units to the few people buying, and I doubt it'll be economic to get cheap enough to make a lot more people buy. 

[Donut417]

Im not surprised. Lets look at the situation from a US perspective. 

 

• Pandemic hit and shut downs happen. 
• Millions go on to unemployment, benefits are increased and extended for longer. Some make more money on unemployment than when they were working. 
• Federal Goverment suspends Rent, Mortgage and Student loan payments, as well as takes Student loan interested down to 0. 
• Government hands out stimulus checks like we were strippers. 
• Crypto currency decides to shoot to the moon. 
• You have a constrained supply chain. So there is not enough cards to go around. 

 

The fact is it was a perfect storm. With the supply chain contained and scalpers taking advantage. Between crypto miners making shit loads of money and people fuel with free government money they all wanted cards. Now that all the free government money has been spent, the costs of goods rising due to inflation, uncertainty in the economy, and the war, I feel that people are just hunkering down to weather the storm. Nvidia, AMD and Intel should have know this was going to happen. But I've heard of lots of retailers who bought a lot of stuff with the expectations that demand was going to remain strong. The fact is Ive seen reports of $4.99 for a dozen of Eggs, so at the end of the day I think people are more concerned about eating and keeping a roof over their heads than buying $1500 GPUs. To be clear in some areas around me its like $900 to $1200 for a months of rent. 

[Dracarris]

11 hours ago, Donut417 said:

The fact is Ive seen reports of $4.99 for a dozen of Eggs

Is that supposed to be expensive? Around ~40ct for an egg?

[Donut417]

18 minutes ago, Dracarris said:

Is that supposed to be expensive? Around ~40ct for an egg?

For the US yes that's expensive. I think thats about double the going rate. 

[Vordreller]

On 12/30/2022 at 3:31 PM, Eigenvektor said:

Or... they're selling less because the price got increased?

 

I think they simply got used to customers paying whatever, so they created a GPU for that market. Turns out by the time their design is done that market (miners) is no longer there. And gamers (at last some of them), no longer faced with a shortage, apparently aren't willing to pay these prices.

I'm going for "both"

[Dracarris]

4 hours ago, Donut417 said:

For the US yes that's expensive. I think thats about double the going rate. 

That's insane. I don't even want to imagine under what conditions those eggs are being produced.

[Donut417]

24 minutes ago, Dracarris said:

That's insane. I don't even want to imagine under what conditions those eggs are being produced.

Thats why a lot of farms are owned by corporations. Because even with low margins they can make it work. That and governments subsidies. 

[discarded]

On 12/31/2022 at 12:50 AM, Vordreller said:

Summary

Desktop GPU sales hit 20 year low, shipped 42 percent fewer than last year.

 

 

CPUs and other components in similar situation. Can't go up forever. Many people upgraded during the scamdemic. No need for more stuff now, unless you are an enthusiast who gets excited about incremental gains. 
 

The middle class continues to get wiped out, which can't help matters either.

[starsmine]

On 1/3/2023 at 6:07 AM, mr moose said:

One of the things I genuinely wish I was going to live long enough to see are all these kids who throw out the term boomer like an insult or accusation when they hit 60+ and the younger generations are doing it to them. 

Unironically. 
Ok boomer. 

Like Gamers arguments are wrong for a multitude of reasons, however him calling out boomer mentality is a pretty minor one, and a weird one to complain about. 

[mr moose]

52 minutes ago, starsmine said:

Unironically. 
Ok boomer. 

Like Gamers arguments are wrong for a multitude of reasons, however him calling out boomer mentality is a pretty minor one, and a weird one to complain about. 

Mate, I'm gen X, my parents were boomers, my children are all Gen Z and Gen Alpha and my wife is Gen Y.  Having spent the last 20 years in the school system watching young people grow and explain their concerns and listening to boomers and the generation before them I can tell you that all this rhetoric about generations being this that or the other thing is just a waste of tired old arguments that mean almost nothing.

 

If I wish to complain because someone is generalizing an entire generation in an ignorant and derogatory way then I fucking will. I neither need your approval nor your understanding.

 

 

 

[SimplyChunk]

15 minutes ago, mr moose said:

this rhetoric about generations being this that or the other thing is just a...

nother thing to divide us.

[mr moose]

4 minutes ago, SimplyChunk said:

nother thing to divide us.

Anyone can be the enemy if you're never told about the good things they did for you.

 

 

[Holmes108]

1 hour ago, mr moose said:

Mate, I'm gen X, my parents were boomers, my children are all Gen Z and Gen Alpha and my wife is Gen Y.  Having spent the last 20 years in the school system watching young people grow and explain their concerns and listening to boomers and the generation before them I can tell you that all this rhetoric about generations being this that or the other thing is just a waste of tired old arguments that mean almost nothing.

 

If I wish to complain because someone is generalizing an entire generation in an ignorant and derogatory way then I fucking will. I neither need your approval nor your understanding.

 

 

 

 

Yep. Also it's just played out. It was kinda cute for a week bur it's pretty cringe and corny now. Karen has also gotten there.