corona virus

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Canoe said:

Spoiler

 

Various authorities are trying to determine the infected droplet risk:

• known risk - expelled droplets, with heavier droplets falling to the ground sooner (distance, time, matters)
• unknown - does it include aerosols - tiny droplets remain airborne, floating in the air.

Wash surfaces, wash your hands. Sneeze/cough into tissue or your sleeve.

 

With that, there's reports of a Hong Kong apartment building with a cluster of infected. This is suspected to be due to the air exhaust system in the building leaking plumbing fecal air into the rest of the building. Seems to be through a dedicated vent stack running parallel to the usual drain stack. As at least one person put it, the shit hit the fan.

 

Some saying this could explain why China is 'blocking' (read as quarantine?) entire apartment buildings with suspected patients.

 

Reports that cruise ship passengers were complaining they were stuck in their rooms and the only fresh air was through the ships ventilation ducts. Wanna bet they're not isolation-filtered? Could help explain why cruise ships have such a nasty history with contagion in outbreaks.

 

 

 

Then you're implying that the virus mutated and became airborne?

 

It's one thing to have it through bodily fluids and direct contact.

It's another to have contamination through airvents. That means airborne and if so we are in deep s*** and no help from the N99 facemasks and we're all going full darth vader gear.

Edited February 11, 2020 by Guest

[WkdPaul]

16 minutes ago, Blademaster91 said:

Yeah that is really concerning, but I'd be more concerned if the Chinese govt is covering up how many infected there actually are, cuz that could skew the survival rate stats quite a bit.

It's totally possible. There are rumors of testing as little people as possible, or that if you're tested positive but don't present symptoms, you're not going to be counted in the official numbers.

 

For now it's annoying but might not have the whole picture.

[Canoe]

Just now, Cora_Lie said:

Then you're implying that the virus mutated and became airborne?

 

It's one thing to have it through bodily fluids and direct contact.

It's another to have contamination through airvents. That means airborne and if so we are in deep s*** and no help from the N99 facemasks and we're all going full darth vader gear.

No mutation necessary. Aerosol transmission is still undetermined. Data suggesting it is and data suggesting it's not. It's too early.

 

Transmission was one of the first priorities when 2019-nCoV presented.

 

On 2/1/2020 at 7:54 PM, Canoe said:

TRANSMISSION

...
2019-nCov is spread (transferred) person to person by:

• Direct Contact transmission
• Droplet transmission
• Indirect Contact transmission (Frequent-Touch Surfaces)
• Variably: suspected/assumed/rare: fecal transmission

No reports of any Vectors (like mosquitoes for West Nile).

 

Droplet precautions typically out to one metre. Hence the recomendation to stay one metre away from people.

Airborne precutions out to 10 metres plus. Which would be an airvent risk, if not adequately filtered.

 

On 2/1/2020 at 8:39 AM, Canoe said:

 

 

[spartaman64]

1 hour ago, Guiltyx said:

Those are some scary numbers, and its growing quickly. I remember just a week or so ago there were only about 170 deaths, now over 1000

i feel like the death rate is inflated because theres only been 1 death so far outside of china and a lot of the people infected in china are getting basically no healthcare because of the healthcare system being stretched and it takes 2 hours of waiting in line just to get tested for it. ironically the quarantine is probably the biggest cause of that

[Canoe]

5 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

... It's another to have contamination through airvents. That means airborne and if so we are in deep s*** and no help from the N99 facemasks and we're all going full darth vader gear.

With that plumbing vent leak, from the diagram of the setup there, the vent/stack is part and parcel to the exit from the toilet on it's way to the drain stack, so it is subjected to splashing. Therefore if the transmission happened as suspected, it would involve Fecal Transmission, and from that: liquid/particulate, droplet or aerosol transmission. Which is unknown.

 

Masks

Yes, masks are not for inhaling protection, but preventing expelling. They leak when inhaling.

But note the finding of Dr. Loeb below.

It's unknown of the benefit is from filtering, or also stopping touching mouth & nose, or if the device presence keeps reminding them of risks, hence safe protocols.

 

On 2/2/2020 at 2:37 AM, Canoe said:

Masks are only marginally helpful in avoiding getting infected. Cannot be relied upon for protection.

They are useful in minimizing the infected from expelling infected dropplets.

 

UPDATE

NOTE:

Quote

Dr. Mark Loeb, an infectious disease specialist at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, said a study during an outbreak of the SARS coronavirus found that any type of protection — whether a mask or a respirator — reduced the risk of infections in health care workers by about 85 percent.

 

 

***

 

5 hours ago, Blademaster91 said:

Yeah that is really concerning, but I'd be more concerned if the Chinese govt is covering up how many infected there actually are, cuz that could skew the survival rate stats quite a bit.

wkdpaul > It's totally possible. There are rumors of testing as little people as possible, or that if you're tested positive but don't present symptoms, you're not going to be counted in the official numbers.

 

If they show reduced infected, then their fatality numbers would be inflated.

Multiple reports that they're only counting deaths of Confirmed in care.

If someone dies elsewhere (didn't go to hospital, or part of the initial turned away and later couldn't go in), they're not counted.

 

5 hours ago, spartaman64 said:

i feel like the death rate is inflated because theres only been 1 death so far outside of china and a lot of the people infected in china are getting basically no healthcare because of the healthcare system being stretched and it takes 2 hours of waiting in line just to get tested for it. ironically the quarantine is probably the biggest cause of that

The rate is not inflated, but it is reported as higher in Hubei and Wuhan. Their system is getting hugely stretched.

Those waiting in line are not presenting with symptoms of immediate danger. As with triage in all modern hospitals, I'd be surprised if anyone presenting there with no or mild symptoms would not be waiting their turn, so more serious patients can be addressed first.

 

And it's been reported that those that are diagnosed with 2019-nCoV Mild are not tested. There is no clinical benefit to the Pt. nor management of that case, to have the Pt. tested. Having everyone tested would be useful for stats, but not a wise choice during an outbreak where there are numerous Pt.s needing urgent care.

 

Once a 2019-nCoV specific test is developed, testing should become much easier, and faster. Then it would become more practical to test patients in a huge breakout. But once we have such a test, future breakouts should be quickly identified and quickly contained.

 

The numbers of infected, deaths, etc., outside of mainland China are still very small. A very small sample size.

 

From Feb 10, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

• Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1%
• Estimated CFR for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5%
• Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18%

 

 

[WkdPaul]

Just now, Canoe said:

If they show reduced infected, then their fatality numbers would be inflated.

I know, that's probably why they're also doing this ;

Just now, Canoe said:

Multiple reports that they're only counting deaths of Confirmed in care.

If someone dies elsewhere (didn't go to hospital, or part of the initial turned away and later couldn't go in), they're not counted.

 

But, even partial numbers are better than none at all I guess.

[spartaman64]

4 hours ago, Canoe said:

Spoiler

 

The rate is not inflated, but it is reported as higher in Hubei and Wuhan. Their system is getting hugely stretched.

Those waiting in line are not presenting with symptoms of immediate danger. As with triage in all modern hospitals, I'd be surprised if anyone presenting there with no or mild symptoms would not be waiting their turn, so more serious patients can be addressed first.

 

And it's been reported that those that are diagnosed with 2019-nCoV Mild are not tested. There is no clinical benefit to the Pt. nor management of that case, to have the Pt. tested. Having everyone tested would be useful for stats, but not a wise choice during an outbreak where there are numerous Pt.s needing urgent care.

 

Once a 2019-nCoV specific test is developed, testing should become much easier, and faster. Then it would become more practical to test patients in a huge breakout. But once we have such a test, future breakouts should be quickly identified and quickly contained.

 

The numbers of infected, deaths, etc., outside of mainland China are still very small. A very small sample size.

 

From Feb 10, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

• Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1%
• Estimated CFR for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5%
• Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18%

 

 

 

do you think that survivability increases with proper medical care? if so then yes the death rate is inflated because those people cannot get proper medical care or in some cases any care at all

Edited February 11, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Canoe]

1 minute ago, spartaman64 said:

do you think that survivability increases with proper medical care? if so then yes the death rate is inflated because those people cannot get proper medical care or in some cases any care at all

Your comment is true, but simplistic and unuseful. And inflated implies false.

The reported stats are clear of greater fatalities in Wuhan and Hubei.

There are over 31,000 Confirmed patients in Hubei, most in Wuhan. Over 7,000 Severe that ideally would be in isolation ACU or ICU.

For one hospital in Wuhan, it's reported they had 64 ICU beds. That was expanded to over 100 ICU isolated dedicated for 2019-nCoV. Compare that with seven Wuhan hospitals, another rapidly deployed hospital and another one on the way for an additional 2,300 beds. How would you propose to handle 31,000 Confrimed and 7,000 Severe. How would any city in the U.S. cope with such numbers. Don't bother answering that, be cause it's clear none can. Which is why it is so important to detect any infections and exposures as soon as possible and contain them. And why there's increasing talk about if some hospitals around the world should be ramping up now, due to the two month plus time asymptomatic infected had time to travel around the globe.

 

Those numbers cannot be handled properly, not even adequately, so everyone scrambles to do what they can. Which is why you have doctors in Wuhan choosing to continue attending patients when the doctors don't have protective gear to go around. And they continue attending patients even once they themselves become infected but are capable of working.

 

Your belief that everyone would benefit if everyone could get tested is naive when a specific test does not yet exist, nor does it reflect clinical needs.

 

And all such numbers are very early numbers, as there's still 88% of Confirmed cases (with over 7,000 Severe) where the outcome is unknown.

 

The projection that can be made from available data, with 88% unresolved data, is that 18% of those Severe in Wuhan will die. Of the 7,333 last reported, that's 1,319 will die.

 

[spartaman64]

4 hours ago, Canoe said:

Spoiler

 

Your comment is true, but simplistic and unuseful. And inflated implies false.

The reported stats are clear of greater fatalities in Wuhan and Hubei.

There are over 31,000 Confirmed patients in Hubei, most in Wuhan. Over 7,000 Severe that ideally would be in isolation ACU or ICU.

For one hospital in Wuhan, it's reported they had 64 ICU beds. That was expanded to over 100 ICU isolated dedicated for 2019-nCoV. Compare that with seven Wuhan hospitals, another rapidly deployed hospital and another one on the way for an additional 2,300 beds. How would you propose to handle 31,000 Confrimed and 7,000 Severe. How would any city in the U.S. cope with such numbers. Don't bother answering that, be cause it's clear none can. Which is why it is so important to detect any infections and exposures as soon as possible and contain them. And why there's increasing talk about if some hospitals around the world should be ramping up now, due to the two month plus time asymptomatic infected had time to travel around the globe.

 

Those numbers cannot be handled properly, not even adequately, so everyone scrambles to do what they can. Which is why you have doctors in Wuhan choosing to continue attending patients when the doctors don't have protective gear to go around. And they continue attending patients even once they themselves become infected but are capable of working.

 

Your belief that everyone would benefit if everyone could get tested is naive when a specific test does not yet exist, nor does it reflect clinical needs.

 

And all such numbers are very early numbers, as there's still 88% of Confirmed cases (with over 7,000 Severe) where the outcome is unknown.

 

The projection that can be made from available data, with 88% unresolved data, is that 18% of those Severe in Wuhan will die. Of the 7,333 last reported, that's 1,319 will die.

 

 

my belief is everyone will benefit if everyone gets treated as shown by the rest of the world having a much lower death rate and i think the US would have a better chance at dealing with it as theres just less people in the US and we have more resources. im just saying that the deathrate in china is essentially the rate if medical treatment is not provided and many diseases that nobody really worries about to the same degree like the flu would have a similar death rate under the same circumstances. so people who are panicking over the death rate and spouting doom and gloom are not looking at the entire context of the situation

Edited February 11, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Guiltyxz]

 

 Has anyone seen these videos?

[nyichiban]

17 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

ok... here we are now... I wrote 900+ deaths less than an hour ago, that was the number at 1pm today in France. Now we have reached 1,011 deaths.

source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

 

So please, don't compare to the flu anymore... This is nowhere near the flu case...

There is now 1,011 deaths but the flu is still 30 times that for deaths. I guess you are right, the flu is a bigger issue than this. There is too much speculations right now and too many differing stories about where it came from and the amount of people and deaths or it could be updates at different times. I guess this is getting much more media attention because it spread to many different countries and it's a new flu strain sars, mers now corona. This sin't the greatest killer in other countries but I guess this is an epidemic in China as they haven't faced something like this since SARS. Compared to 35,000,000 infected to right about 40,000+ there is a big difference. 

[Bombastinator]

6 minutes ago, nyichiban said:

There is now 1,011 deaths but the flu is still 30 times that for deaths. I guess you are right, the flu is a bigger issue than this. 

Outside of China, and even large part OF China NCP is totally controlled... for now.  It’s not even a thing at all.  In the rest of the world influenza is a distinct thing.  Flu shots are awesome though.  

[nyichiban]

Just now, Bombastinator said:

Outside of China, and even large part OF China NCP is totally controlled... for now.  It’s not even a thing at all.  In the rest of the world influenza is a distinct thing.  Flu shots are awesome though.  

Yea it's a new epidemic for China and they are a vital country now for trade for the rest of the world since China is the world's factory now. 

[Canoe]

12 minutes ago, spartaman64 said:

my belief is everyone will benefit if everyone gets treated as shown by the rest of the world having a much lower death rate

Nice belief, however

• There. Is. No. Treatment.
• There is no magic pill.
• There is no vaccine.
• This is new.
• They can only treat symptoms.
  • This includes at the last stage by  trying to stop people's immune system from collapsing so they don't die of multiple organ failure.
• Which is why researchers are scrambling to find out anything they can about this virus, across the whole spectrum from Transmission through to Vaccine.

The rest of the world has the benefit of:

• being somewhat forewarned,
  • certainly significantly more forewarned than the medical system in China
• the benefit of case notes provided by China (an initial 99 and later ~1,000, and likely more since I heard of that)
• an extremely lower number of cases to deal with, and a medical staff that isn't dropping on their feet, or rundown or dying as they're infected.

 

12 minutes ago, spartaman64 said:

• ...
• i think the US would have a better chance at dealing with it as theres just less people in the US and we have more resources.
• im just saying that the deathrate in china is essentially the rate if medical treatment is not provided and many diseases that nobody really worries about to the same degree like the flu would have a similar death rate under the same circumstances.
• so people who are panicking over the death rate and spouting doom and gloom are not looking at the entire context of the situation

• The U.S. does not have the resources to deal with an outbreak of this size. Nobody does. That's why detection and containment are so important, and so many resources are being allocated to try to prevent an outbreak elsewhere.
• They can't provide a treatment that does not exist.
• Flus are known, and many countries, including China, deal with them each year.
  • Including the U.S., which has had over 12,000 fatalities so far this 2019-2020 flu season, and jumped from 10,000 to 12,000 from late January to last week. Call it 2,000 in little over one week. 
• You're commenting and then saying others are not looking at the entire context of the situation, when you've got the context wrong and aren't aware of the basic understanding of what is known and what is taking place.

[Bombastinator]

2 hours ago, Canoe said:

 

Spoiler

 

Nice belief, however

• There. Is. No. Treatment.
• There is no magic pill.
• There is no vaccine.
• This is new.
• They can only treat symptoms.
  • This includes at the last stage by  trying to stop people's immune system from collapsing so they don't die of multiple organ failure.
• Which is why researchers are scrambling to find out anything they can about this virus, across the whole spectrum from Transmission through to Vaccine.

The rest of the world has the benefit of:

• being somewhat forewarned,
  • certainly significantly more forewarned than the medical system in China
• the benefit of case notes provided by China (an initial 99 and later ~1,000, and likely more since I heard of that)
• an extremely lower number of cases to deal with, and a medical staff that isn't dropping on their feet, or rundown or dying as they're infected.

 

• The U.S. does not have the resources to deal with an outbreak of this size. Nobody does. That's why detection and containment are so important, and so many resources are being allocated to try to prevent an outbreak elsewhere.
• They can't provide a treatment that does not exist.
• Flus are known, and many countries, including China, deal with them each year.
  • Including the U.S., which has had over 12,000 fatalities so far this 2019-2020 flu season, and jumped from 10,000 to 12,000 from late January to last week. Call it 2,000 in little over one week. 
• You're commenting and then saying others are not looking at the entire context of the situation, when you've got the context wrong and aren't aware of the basic understanding of what is known and what is taking place.

 

•  

Depends on how you are defining “treatment”.. quarantine is to some degree treatment.  Palitive care that allows people with the disease to recover from it instead of dying is treatment.  If by “treatment” you mean “cure”? No. Of course not.  It’s a virus.  We don’t have any “treatment” for influenza then either.

Edited February 11, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Canoe]

3 hours ago, Guiltyx said:

 

 Has anyone seen these videos?

• I don't know how effective that could be.
• Looks like spraying for mosquitoes or similar vectors. No reports of suspected vectors for 2019-nCoV.
• If enough settles in sufficient concentration it might kill droplets that people have expelled and fell to the ground.
  • But those have a limited period viability and
  • there's not been very many people walking around to expel or step on, compared to their usual days.
• SARS remained viable up to 36 hours on stainless steel.
• I doubt there's been very many people walking around, then rubbing their hands on the bottom of their shoes and then preparing food sticking their fingers in their mouth.

But it does make a great big cloud to video and show people that steps are being taken.

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Letgomyleghoe]

4 hours ago, Canoe said:

Is it too late for us all to take up model railroading and move over to that thread?

Didn’t know we had a thread for that

I have a metric fuckton of trains I’m supposed to have inherited, but my uncles selling them off.

[spartaman64]

2 hours ago, Canoe said:

 

Spoiler

 

Nice belief, however

• There. Is. No. Treatment.
• There is no magic pill.
• There is no vaccine.
• This is new.
• They can only treat symptoms.
  • This includes at the last stage by  trying to stop people's immune system from collapsing so they don't die of multiple organ failure.
• Which is why researchers are scrambling to find out anything they can about this virus, across the whole spectrum from Transmission through to Vaccine.

The rest of the world has the benefit of:

• being somewhat forewarned,
  • certainly significantly more forewarned than the medical system in China
• the benefit of case notes provided by China (an initial 99 and later ~1,000, and likely more since I heard of that)
• an extremely lower number of cases to deal with, and a medical staff that isn't dropping on their feet, or rundown or dying as they're infected.

 

• The U.S. does not have the resources to deal with an outbreak of this size. Nobody does. That's why detection and containment are so important, and so many resources are being allocated to try to prevent an outbreak elsewhere.
• They can't provide a treatment that does not exist.
• Flus are known, and many countries, including China, deal with them each year.
  • Including the U.S., which has had over 12,000 fatalities so far this 2019-2020 flu season, and jumped from 10,000 to 12,000 from late January to last week. Call it 2,000 in little over one week. 
• You're commenting and then saying others are not looking at the entire context of the situation, when you've got the context wrong and aren't aware of the basic understanding of what is known and what is taking place.

 

•  

did i say there is? you are attacking a strawman and treating symptoms can keep people alive if it doesnt then whats the point of providing treatment. it wont be an outbreak of that size in the US because there are just less people and because of the detection and containment policies so you are assisting with my point including with your statement theres 12,000 deaths due to flu so why are people not panicking over the flu when you are much more likely to die to it than coronavirus here in the US? you are just helping me make my point instead of disproving it. how am i getting the context wrong? there are only 15 cases in the US and they are all quarantined and none of them died because of treatment for their symptoms and theres no signs of it becoming a big thing here so I dont see why we should panick over it

Edited February 11, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Canoe]

30 minutes ago, nyichiban said:

There is now 1,011 deaths but the flu is still 30 times that for deaths. I guess you are right, the flu is a bigger issue than this. There is too much speculations right now and too many differing stories about where it came from and the amount of people and deaths or it could be updates at different times. I guess this is getting much more media attention because it spread to many different countries and it's a new flu strain sars, mers now corona. This sin't the greatest killer in other countries but I guess this is an epidemic in China as they haven't faced something like this since SARS. Compared to 35,000,000 infected to right about 40,000+ there is a big difference. 

So stop reading the speculations and stick to the science reports.

The medical/science people are giving it lots of attention for the reasons stated here

https://linustechtips.com/main/topic/1149427-corona-virus/?do=findComment&comment=13287519

p.s.

SARS, MERS and 2019-nCoV are all corona viruses.

[Canoe]

18 minutes ago, spartaman64 said:

did i say there is? you are attacking a strawman and treating symptoms can keep people alive if it doesnt then whats the point of providing treatment. it wont be an outbreak of that size in the US because there are just less people and because of the detection and containment policies so you are assisting with my point including with your statement theres 12,000 deaths due to flu so why are people not panicking over the flu when you are much more likely to die to it than coronavirus here in the US? you are just helping me make my point instead of disproving it. how am i getting the context wrong? there are only 15 cases in the US and they are all quarantined and none of them died because of treatment for their symptoms and theres no signs of it becoming a big thing here so I dont see why we should panick over it

There are some idiots panicking, but the medical/science systems are responding.

Go back and read why they are concerned and why they are specifically concerned about the increasing likelihood and consequences of there being outbreaks in other countries, including the U.S..

And while you're doing that, go back and read what you actually wrote. Several of your statements are outright false, others a stretch. Perhaps you're getting your information from those panicking.

[PhantomJaguarr]

First case in my city after an evacuee was released from the hospital for a day. They tested positive for the virus. My gawd !

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/11/coronavirus-evacuee-san-diego-released/

 

“This is an accurate test,” said Nancy Messonnier, who heads the coronavirus response at the CDC, in a briefing last week. “A negative test most likely means a person is not infected. However, it may mean that an infection has not developed enough to be detected by the test.”

[WkdPaul]

4 minutes ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

First case in my city after an evacuee was released from the hospital for a day. They tested positive for the virus. My gawd !

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/11/coronavirus-evacuee-san-diego-released/

Did you read past the article title ???

 

Quote

They went back to quarantine at a nearby air station.

Quote

UC San Diego Health spokeswoman Yadira Galindo said in an email that the patient left the hospital “the same way they arrived with all precautions taken.” The person wore a mask and was escorted by federal officials who also had “protection,” she added.

“The patient did not interact with the environment after leaving the hospital room,” Galindo said.

 

 

They were never a risk, they were in quarantine, went to a local hospital for tests, initial tests said he wasn't infected and so was returned in quarantine ... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Canoe]

11 minutes ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

First case in my city after an evacuee was released from the hospital for a day. They tested positive for the virus. My gawd !

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/11/coronavirus-evacuee-san-diego-released/

That shows a problem they're having all over. How many non-positive tests (tests that fail to detect) are required to declare someone virus free. 

 

~edit - added, emphasis mine

Quote

“This is an accurate test,” said Nancy Messonnier, who heads the coronavirus response at the CDC, in a briefing last week. “A negative test most likely means a person is not infected. However, it may mean that an infection has not developed enough to be detected by the test.”

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by Canoe
added quote

[spartaman64]

16 minutes ago, Canoe said:

There are some idiots panicking, but the medical/science systems are responding.

Go back and ready why they are concerned and why they are specifically concerned about the increasing likelihood and consequences of there being outbreaks in other countries, including the U.S..

And while you're doing that, go back and read what you actually wrote. Several of your statements are outright false, others a stretch. Perhaps you're getting your information from those panicking.

ok then name some. and the WHO stated that they are confident that china has it under control https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/who-chief-says-confident-in-chinas-ability-to-contain-virus-urges-calm-idUSKBN1ZR0K4 and once again i stress that theres only 15 cases in the US out of a population of 327 million

[PhantomJaguarr]

1 minute ago, wkdpaul said:

They were never a risk, they were in quarantine, went to a local hospital for tests, initial tests said he wasn't infected and so was returned in quarantine

Yes still that’s only 20 miles away from me and shows how the test can’t be accurate sometimes, understandably.