corona virus

[Bombastinator]

34 minutes ago, Deli said:

Some videos urge people to start stock up food, water, medical supply and fuel. Oh, my....

Yep.  There is generally an axe to grind there if you look deep enough.  

[Intrafinesse]

On 2/14/2020 at 7:29 PM, Bombastinator said:

It’s new. Everyone and their mom is trying to make up a name.

The WHO is trying to not offend anyone and not use the name of the region it first appeared in.

I think their obscure names like SARS-CoV-2 and  Covid-19 (while scientifically accurate?) will not register with many people.

Its better to have an "offensive" name like the Wuhan Coronavirus.

And its not offensive, except to people who look to take offense.

[Bombastinator]

8 minutes ago, Intrafinesse said:

The WHO is trying to not offend anyone and not use the name of the region it first appeared in.

I think their obscure names like SARS-CoV-2 and  Covid-19 (while scientifically accurate?) will not register with many people.

Its better to have an "offensive" name like the Wuhan Coronavirus.

And its not offensive, except to people who look to take offense.

I think you mean “resonate” rather then register.  As to who it is or is not offensive to I believe that is totally irrelevant.  they made a rule about not naming diseases after their area of discovery long before this happened.  That they are adhering to their own rules I find heartening.  I’m willing to call it whatever, it’s just that people seem to keep trying to make up a new one.   I’m fine with Covid 19, or NCP, or whatever.  I’d just like there to be something people can agree on and stop trying to make up different things.

[Canoe]

I've only time for a quick drive-by right now...

 

As specified in the graphs I've been making, they are from data snapshots. They combine snapshot data with the CNHC Daily Update EOD data. This overstates some values as the snapshot contains some data from after the EOD, as in, from the next day. The COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE has archived their data snapshot spreadsheets and now has a daily spreadsheet. I'm updating to those as they're a much closer match when reconciling with the CNHC EOD data.

 

In the meantime, you can compare the bulk of the Covid-19 cases, which (so far) are in China, split into three categories: Wuhan, the rest of Hubei, the rest of China.

 

 

***

 

Show the portion of Confirmed Cases

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bombastinator]

5 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Show the portion of Confirmed Cases

 

That is an interesting and telling graph sir.  

[Canoe]

By Feb 15, 2020 data: Other than mainland China, Diamond Princess cruise ship (in Japan) leads the rest of the world with 285 confirmed cases, just shy of four times the next closest of Singapore, which has 72 confirmed cases. News reports add a further 70 people, bringing the total to 355, for nearly five times that of Singapore's 72.

 

Japan confined all those people on board, in an environment with a long and nasty history of spreading disease. Instead of safely quarantining people in an appropriate environment and minimizing infections, Japan's inactions and direct actions have resulted in the foreseeable consequence of the significant spread of infections, including the severe cases whose lives are now in danger.

 

The ineptness of the Japanese quarantine officer who managed to get himself infected further shows the consequences of Japan's poor and naive treatment of this matter.

Quote

There is also growing concern over possible infections among people who disembarked form the MS Westerdam in Cambodia on Friday, after it was confirmed that one passenger, who later flew to Malaysia, tested positive for the virus.

...

France’s health minister, Anges Buzyn, said: “We have to get our health system ready to face a possible pandemic propagation of the virus, and therefore the spreading of the virus across France.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/16/coronavirus-70-more-cases-on-japan-cruise-ship-as-china-infections-pass-68000

Quote

PUTRAJAYA: Malaysia Airlines Bhd (MAB) has cancelled three out of the four flights chartered by the Westerdam cruise liner to fly back passengers of the Cambodia-docked ship.

...

At the moment, only one of the chartered flights, MH8763, with 145 passengers on board landed at KLIA at 7pm on Feb 14. All passengers (of flight MH8763) were subjected to health screening, in which, two of them were detected by the thermal scanner displaying symptoms of Covid-19, ... after test conducted on the female octogenarian on Feb 15 showed the she was positive for the Covid-19,... “In relation to this, all passengers who boarded the same flight (MH8763 with the American woman tested positive for Covid-19) are regarded as close contact. ... Malaysia Airlines cancelled the remaining chartered flights (by the US Embassy in Kuala Lumpur,” ... 137 people who boarded the same flight with the patient were allowed to proceed with flights to their respective destination after not displaying any symptoms related to Covid-19.

“Six other passengers (who arrived in the country via flight MH8763) will only be allowed to proceed with flights to their next destination if test conducted on them showed that they were negative of Covid-19.

...

Dr Wan Azizah also said that remaining passengers of the MS Westerdam who are still in Cambodia would not be allowed to enter Malaysia since they were in close contact to the 22nd confirmed case.

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2020/02/566140/malaysia-airlines-cancels-three-flights-repatriating-american-cruise-ship

[Guest]

@Canoe

I'm utterly dismayed by your open one-sided criticism of the japanese quarantine of the Diamond Princess!

 

You openly tried to explain the chinese round up and coraling in the big virus sharing 10,000 beds spaces by some way of "triage" of the potentially sick, when, as it has been demonstrated later, it's nothing else than places to let the sick be sick without any care (multiple testimonies of that fact), in the cold, without any proper care.

You are openly sharing with us for how many days now your nice little graphs wich are not showing anything else but what the chinese government is officially spreading misinformation by manipulating numbers in the best way they see fit for themselves and the glorious party.

The situation is so much better right now (irony intended) in China that they are tightening the quarantines everywhere in the country, the rules becoming even more drastically harsh, the control of information becoming even more hard to the citizens with the disappearance of the "civilian journalists" who dared to show and share with the outside world what was really happening in the zone!

 

And here you are daring to openly criticize one country who took care of the people on a cruise ship, fed them, monitored them several times per day, didn't restrict them access to the outside world (TV, Internet, phone) and took them into hospital care when they started to show symptoms of the sickness and you dare to accuse them of "malpractice"?

 

The "ineptness" of the japanese quarantine officer? Really?

What about the "ineptness" of the nurses and doctors who caught the CoVid-19 when taking care of their patients?

Didn't they all take care of the quarantined or sick people?

What about the ineptness of the "Malaisian Health Minister" who shook hands with each and every passenger of the cruise ship while they disembarked when it was already  known that asymptomic people could spread the disease?

 

I'm in no way saying that the japanese government and/or individuals didn't make any mistakes, but they most definitely are not the only ones through out the world and the Chinese - and WHO - will need to make some deep self-introspection once this is all finished... But I'm sure that everything will be "all right" by then, because it will have been a "perfect" crisis management of the situation under harsh times. And they will all be "heroes", even the ones who took the decisions to infect thousands of people needlessly and used the opportunity to "prune" the bad apples who are not "team players"...

 

I'm flabbergasted!

 

 

[Canoe]

35 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

@Canoe

I'm utterly dismayed by your open one-sided criticism of the japanese quarantine of the Diamond Princess!

 

You openly tried to explain the chinese round up and coraling in the big virus sharing 10,000 beds spaces by some way of "triage" of the potentially sick, when, as it has been demonstrated later, it's nothing else than places to let the sick be sick without any care (multiple testimonies of that fact), in the cold, without any proper care.

You are openly sharing with us for how many days now your nice little graphs wich are not showing anything else but what the chinese government is officially spreading misinformation by manipulating numbers in the best way they see fit for themselves and the glorious party.

The situation is so much better right now (irony intended) in China that they are tightening the quarantines everywhere in the country, the rules becoming even more drastically harsh, the control of information becoming even more hard to the citizens with the disappearance of the "civilian journalists" who dared to show and share with the outside world what was really happening in the zone!

 

And here you are daring to openly criticize one country who took care of the people on a cruise ship, fed them, monitored them several times per day, didn't restrict them access to the outside world (TV, Internet, phone) and took them into hospital care when they started to show symptoms of the sickness and you dare to accuse them of "malpractice"?

 

The "ineptness" of the japanese quarantine officer? Really?

What about the "ineptness" of the nurses and doctors who caught the CoVid-19 when taking care of their patients?

Didn't they all take care of the quarantined or sick people?

What about the ineptness of the "Malaisian Health Minister" who shook hands with each and every passenger of the cruise ship while they disembarked when it was already  known that asymptomic people could spread the disease?

 

I'm in no way saying that the japanese government and/or individuals didn't make any mistakes, but they most definitely are not the only ones through out the world and the Chinese - and WHO - will need to make some deep self-introspection once this is all finished... But I'm sure that everything will be "all right" by then, because it will have been a "perfect" crisis management of the situation under harsh times. And they will all be "heroes", even the ones who took the decisions to infect thousands of people needlessly and used the opportunity to "prune" the bad apples who are not "team players"...

 

I'm flabbergasted!

 

 

And I'm amused, and not surprised at your post. I'll get around to addressing your points when I have the spare time. I don't think you realize how much they reveal.

I hope you feel better to have gotten that off your chest.

 

But one thing I can quickly address:

> You are openly sharing with us for how many days now your nice little graphs wich are not showing anything else but

The graphs can't show anything but what that data shows.

It's useful to visually see how the numbers change. Like how we saw the Suspected counts dropping for a few days, before those with pneumonia CT features were transferred to Confirmed so they would be able to receive treatment, and at government expense.

So they do have some use. But they can't show the things you wish they'd show.

 

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Canoe said:

I'll get around to addressing your points when I have the spare time. I don't think you realize how much they reveal.

Do as you wish.

And I'm perfectly aware of what I reveal about myself, my opinions, and my values. All things I already expressed in past posts on different subjects.

I have nothing to "get off my chest", I've already expressed these very same things to you in public and private in the past weeks. So I really don't see the point of you implying who knows what by saying that.

 

1 hour ago, Canoe said:

But one thing I can quickly address:

> You are openly sharing with us for how many days now your nice little graphs wich are not showing anything else but

The graphs can't show anything but what that data shows.

It's useful to visually see how the numbers change. Like how we saw the Suspected counts dropping for a few days, before those with pneumonia CT features were transferred to Confirmed so they would be able to receive treatment, and at government expense.

So they do have some use. But they can't show the things you wish they'd show.

I have no "wish", but one of the things I KNOW is that data and numbers can be used, turned and twisted to show exactly what one want them to show simply by selecting which one to use and how to partition them.

And it is also a proven and known fact that the numbers provided by China to all the others actors of the management of this epidemic in pass to become a pandemic are doctored.

So...

 

[Canoe]

On 2/17/2020 at 3:48 AM, Cora_Lie said:

And it is also a proven and known fact that the numbers provided by China to all the others actors of the management of this epidemic in pass to become a pandemic are doctored. So...  

And as I've asked you, provide a fact/data based adjustment factor, which we can apply to the published numbers, treating them as the tip of the ice berg, so we can credibly calculate a plausible, if not credible, true complete size of the iceberg, both that above water and below water, currently out of sight.

 

***

 

Getting the core data into my spreadsheet is easy. Getting all of the calculated fields correct isn't overly hard. But getting all of the links to the main sheet that the charts are generated from and cross checking for my data entry errors from the CNHC Updates is very tedious.

 

But here's another chart. Hopefully the coming days and weeks will see a meaningful move of the yellow, orange and red columns into the green column...

 

 

***

 

Feb 16th spreadsheet is out. Showing 10,865 Recovered!

(1770 Deaths)

Recovered:Deaths is slightly better than 6:1.

 

(waiting for the CNHC Update translation)

 

~edit: So far, I've only changed over to the Daily from the snapshot data for Feb 16th back to Feb 8th. But it's the more recent dates that are more material, so it's a good interim chart. I hope the four most recent days really are starting to form a down curve in the rate of Deaths...

 

[Canoe]

16 hours ago, Canoe said:

By Feb 15, 2020 data: Other than mainland China, Diamond Princess cruise ship (in Japan) leads the rest of the world with 285 confirmed cases, just shy of four times the next closest of Singapore, which has 72 confirmed cases. News reports add a further 70 people, bringing the total to 355, for nearly five times that of Singapore's 72.

Japan confined all those people on board, in an environment with a long and nasty history of spreading disease. Instead of safely quarantining people in an appropriate environment and minimizing infections, Japan's inactions and direct actions have resulted in the foreseeable consequence of the significant spread of infections, including the severe cases whose lives are now in danger. ...

From Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE

Last updated at (M/D/YYYY) 2/17/2020 8:13:09 a.m.

The sum of the counts from the highest eleven country/region is 367. Those eleven combined are still below the 369 cases of the Diamond Princess.

Diamond Princess	369
Singapore	75
Japan	65
Hong Kong	58
Thailand	35
South Korea	30
Malaysia	22
Taiwan	20
Germany	16
Vietnam	16
Australia	15
U.S.	15
	367

 

 

 

[WkdPaul]

9 minutes ago, Canoe said:

*snip*

Weird, the news this morning were talking about 454 cases on the Diamond Princess, and those numbers you posted don't include Canadians (I know for a fact there are Canadians that are infected, a couple is talking to a local radio station, and they've have been tested and confirmed to have the virus).

Edited February 17, 2020 by wkdpaul

[Canoe]

On 2/17/2020 at 3:51 PM, wkdpaul said:

Weird, the news this morning were talking about 454 cases on the Diamond Princess,...

There's a lag in the dashboard numbers. They reconcile with many different sources. The list is at their github repo, link on the dashboard.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

 

It's frustrating. I'm trying to reconcile the Feb 6th data, and the daily global total from the Johns Hopkins CSSE data is 30,818, but the CHNC daily total for China is 31,161. Global total of 634 Deaths, CHNC gives China with 636 Deaths. Newer dates have a very close match with the CHNC data. Working with this 'older' data, the numbers seem so small...

 

Going back to the dashboard, other than China & the Diamond Princess, this is all of the country/region they list. Their total of 435 is below that 454 number. After China, the Diamond Princess leads the world...

 

Diamond Princess	454
Singapore	75
Japan	65
Hong Kong	58
Thailand	35
South Korea	30
Malaysia	22
Taiwan	20
Germany	16
Vietnam	16
Australia	15
U.S.	15
France	12
Macau	10
United Arab Emirates	9
UK	9
Canada	8
Italy	3
Philippines	3
India	3
Russiia	2
Spain	2
Nepal	1
Cambodia	1
Belgium	1
Findland	1
Sweden	1
Egypt	1
Sri Lanka	1
	435

***

 

On 2/17/2020 at 4:46 AM, Canoe said:

Feb 16th spreadsheet is out. Showing 10,865 Recovered! (1770 Deaths) ...

> Dr. Tom Frieden

Quote

Another sad milestone: #COVID19 has now killed more people in 6 weeks than #sarsvirus & #MERS combined killed in months & years of spread. We mourn those lost and are increasingly concerned about risk of continued & extensive spread in China and globally.

 

***

****************

***

 

From a study of hospitalized Covid infants under 1 Year of Age in China between December 8, 2019 and February 6, 2020: only nine found, none needed Intensive Unit Care, Mechanical Ventilation or had Severe Complications.

https://twitter.com/JAMA_current/status/1228350688624881665

 

 

***

*************

***

 

A preprint out of China says that 6% of 2746 Covid Pt.s are infected with other viruses.  

Believed to mean that once you find one disease, you still have to test for Covid.

 

***

 

On 2/17/2020 at 3:51 PM, wkdpaul said:

Weird, the news this morning were talking about 454 cases on the Diamond Princess, and those numbers you posted don't include Canadians (I know for a fact there are Canadians that are infected, a couple is talking to a local radio station, and they've have been tested and confirmed to have the virus).

Sorry. Now I think I get what you were getting at. That my list doesn't list the Canadian numbers.

My list is NOT the list of passengers by country/region.

My list starts at the top of the global cases country/region list, which is in order of case count.

The Diamond Princess is the highest Covid outbreak outside of China.

• The top eleven country/region sum to less than the reported Diamond Princess count of 369.
• The newer Diamond Princess count of 454 is higher than ALL of the non-China-mainland country/region combined.

As various ship's passengers return to their country, those country counts should increase. 14 passengers on one flight back to the States, screened before flight, presented with symptoms during the flight.

~edit: NYTimes says American officials learned evacuees were infected but asymptomatic before boarding. "With the arrival of the 14 infected passengers from Japan, confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States nearly doubled, to 29."

 

In addition to some long incubation times, at least one woman infected with Covid-19 has represented with symptoms, some days (five?) after having been cleared and released. I'd be curious to know if this was the same strain as she was originally infected or a second strain. If they can overlap...

Edited February 17, 2020 by Canoe
add list

[WkdPaul]

4 minutes ago, Canoe said:

*snip*

Ah !!! ok, I get it now!

 

Sorry, didn't look at the source you posted and mis-read it !

 

Thanks for the explanation.

[Canoe]

Just now, wkdpaul said:

Ah !!! ok, I get it now!

Took me long enough to get it...

[Canoe]

I'm stuck in the water with the graphs.

In going to the Daily Johns Hopkins CCSE's spreadsheets, there are a number of days where their count is understated compared to the CNHC Update. As in, in one example their global confirmed cases is 3,481 cases lower than China's reported Confirmed cases. Less dramatic differences in Deaths, and Recovered. Some days look spot on, others...

So do I use only the CCSE numbers. Or the CCSE numbers and update those from China that are higher?

 

This graph won't show that problem much, but at least it's a look at how the overall numbers are playing out.

 

 

 

[PhantomJaguarr]

I personally don’t like how my country handled the evacuation for those on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. They picked up passengers off the cruise ship before quarantine ended and resulted with 14 of those on the plane testing positive for the virus. Probably infecting even more on the plane. But looks like the virus was spreading anyways on the ship. So what do I know. Travis Airforce Base is not in my backyard at least. I got fam that if they get this bug they’re screwed.

[Canoe]

1 minute ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

... They picked up passengers off the cruise ship before quarantine ended and resulted with 14 of those on the plane testing positive for the virus. Probably infecting even more on the plane. ...

As per a NYTimes article,

Those 14 had tested negative, but the last test before flight they tested positive. All were asymptomatic, so were fine to fly. They were in a separate (sealed?) section of the plane, separated from the other passengers. See the NYTimes article for more precise details and likely some updates. Report back what you find relevant?

 

[Canoe]

5 hours ago, Canoe said:

I'm stuck in the water with the graphs. In going to the Daily Johns Hopkins CCSE's spreadsheets, ... So do I use only the CCSE numbers. Or the CCSE numbers and update those from China that are higher?

In trying to find out more on the data and the CNHC daily report, google sent me here... Thanks google.

 

[Canoe]

The Feb 17 CCSE data reconciled exactly with the CNHC data!

Rather than waiting for the translation, I went right to the CNHC site. If anyone would like a look, here's the link

http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202002/261f72a74be14c4db6e1b582133cf4b7.shtml

Such a nice looking font, for such a severe subject.

 

Severe took a bit of a jump up.

Counts in Wuhan and Hubei continue to drive the totals.

Numbers in the U.S. are not yet showing those who returned.

 

 

 

***

 

[wafflehaus]

On 2/17/2020 at 6:21 AM, Canoe said:

 

Did anyone else see Pacman barfing rainbows?

[Canoe]

1 hour ago, wafflehaus said:

Did anyone else see Pacman barfing rainbows?

I was tempted to use yellow...

 

Outbreak in Japan "starting" a few days ago is linked to a party that was held on Jan. 18.

That long lead time and hidden carriers.

 

Pangolin not a close enough link to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Bat is closer. Looking for additional animals or other strains carried by Pangolin.

 

In addition to all the medical waste, a number of farmers in China are saying that there's no market for their raised animals and there is limited feed left for them. They'll have to be slaughtered and carcasses disposed of. Same for chicken eggs.

 

Spread of Covid-19 on cruise ship said to be accelerated due to no face masks for first six to seven days, crew delivering toys to cabins, crew serving meals (including after they're infected), close bunk sleeping for crew, an infected Japanese medical officer going around the ship to see passengers and delays before sick elderly were removed to shore.

[PhantomJaguarr]

This doesn’t seem real. Feels like I’m watching scenes from the movie Contagion.

 

 

[Canoe]

1 hour ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

This doesn’t seem real. Feels like I’m watching scenes from the movie Contagion.

I'd wondered what had happened to her. Last I heard she'd planned then made her escape, gone home, and when the police arrived she barricaded the door.

 

It's real. Think of the number of students that were in your high-school. Divide any of the case counts by that count, and try to envision that number of 'schools' of people, infected, sick, severe in ACU/ICU, dead (bagged or cremated).

 

There's an account, I forget where, of an elderly man who became infected. He killed himself (jumped?) so he wouldn't infect his wife.

 

**********************

• I added the Projected Deaths, its calculation from a finding that 18% of those in Severe will die, as Deaths + 18% of Severe.
  • Assuming no more new cases (not realistic), that expects the disease will be fatal for a total of ~4,000 patients.
  • That's not counting the existing Confirmed patients that will become Severe in the next one to three weeks.
  • Hopefully there are treatments developed in time to reduce that percentage.
• Since it's in range, I added Severe too.
• Note: if Severe is the same from one day to the next, that means the New Severe case count equalled the count of those who died that day.

 

[Canoe]

7 hours ago, VegetableStu said:

oof, i guess the deaths of a known film director and most of his family due to succumbing to the disease isn't helping with morale in the area too ._.

I'm seeing that account being used as a very public example of why home quarantine didn't work in Wuhan with something so contagious; mixing those infected living with the non-infected. Why they went for the extreme door-to-door roundup and quarantine. The numbers on that cruise ship sure show what happens when infected and non-infected are quarantined together - a super-spreading event. It appears that's what happened in Wuhan, distributed mixed self-quarantine, effectively a distributed super-spreading event. Like that cruise ship, the R0 numbers are significantly in Wuhan & Hubei than those reported in the rest of China and the rest of the world, which fortunately are significantly lower. 

 

It's too bad we can't know the numbers of what level of Pt. are in which facility in Wuhan. From the CNHC Update on Feb 17, for Wuhan:

• currently 37,152 cases (lab tested plus those transferred from Suspected in that move) plus 1,799 Suspected (mild), for 38,951
• 9,222 of those are Severe cases.

9,222 fitting one or more of: ICU care, Mechanical Ventilation, or have Severe Complications. With a number of hospitals being dedicated to Covid (other patients moved to a non-Covid hospital), plus 1,000 beds in new hospital and another 1,300 bed hospital scheduled (news on that?), where does which level of Pt. go? They requisitioned entire hotels, hangers and a conference centre. Where else did they utilize?

Quote

Hubei reported 1,807 new cases (1,600 in Wuhan), 1,223 patients released from medical case (761 in Wuhan), 93 new deaths (72 in Wuhan), and currently has 50,338 cases (37,152 in Wuhan), including 10,970 severe cases (9,222 in Wuhan). Hubei has released 7,862 patients (4,219 in Wuhan), recorded 1,789 deaths (1,381 in Wuhan), had a total of 59,989 cases (42,752 in Wuhan). Hubei reported 788 new suspected cases (340 in Wuhan) and currently has a total of 4,194 suspected cases (1,799 in Wuhan).

 

Except for occasional blips, the Chinese data continues to be very "non-granular". lol

With CCSE polling every 15 minutes for the latest DXY numbers consolidated from near instant reports from multiple medical facilities across China, that's quite an accomplishment.

 

One senior British researcher said on a BBC show that he believes that outside of Hubei, the rest of China is not reporting all Covid Pt.s; that they're just reporting Covid Pt.s that have a known link to Hubei (or Wuhan? I don't remember which).

 

******************

 

One thing from the SARS playbook is that the viability of coronaviruses in droplets and on surfaces is reduced with cooler temperatures. Warmer summer temperatures and warmer climes may be a detriment.