corona virus

[Canoe]

2 hours ago, Flying Sausages said:

... But this Coronavirus is man made virus that got escape out of China level 4 lab built near the foods market. I believe the purpose is to control China huge population. The China communist party is controlling the media so i don't know if the statistic we got from media is accurate. 

 

Airport temperature screening is obsolete because some people won't show symptom at all. Some will show symptom after a day getting in contact with the virus

Airport temperature screen is not obsolete. It is crucial to detect infections as soon as possible. So someone who cleared when they boarded may be caught if they arrive at their destination with symptoms, before going out and around and infecting others, and while they know sooner that those on board were exposed, and can sooner trace the new detection back for other contacts to be checked. And they're screening for other symptoms, not just temperature. So while it is not 100% effective, it is extremely valuable. And from all recent reports, essential.

 

You can believe what you want. There is no indication of what you claim, and their economy is already taking a huge hit with this illness. The more people they lose, the more their economy goes down. They need people to both produce and consume, else they're looking at some significant disruption, like their economy tanking if their customers around the world start switching or developing other suppliers.

[Flying Sausages]

19 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

 

19 hours ago, Canoe said:

There are no indications of that.

There was one report of such, but that was sorted out quickly and withdrawn once the highly "ambitious" findings were corrected with facts. Same for having some 'same' sequences as HIV; true, but true for many organisms - not unique to HIV by a long shot.

 

2019-nCoVs are even older on the tree than SARS. Looks like an unfortunate transmission from bush meat to humans.

 

Spoiler

 

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Experts are saying D0 back in November. Takes a long time before enough are infected for it to turn into an outbreak.

Which is related to the more recent concern about increasing likelihood that international seeding has already occurred, but is under-detected due to so many with such mild symptoms.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/ian-lipkin-scientists-worry-coronavirus-could-become-worse-than-flu.html

[Flying Sausages]

2 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Airport temperature screen is not obsolete. It is crucial to detect infections as soon as possible. So someone who cleared when they boarded may be caught if they arrive at their destination with symptoms, before going out and around and infecting others, and while they know sooner that those on board were exposed, and can sooner trace the new detection back for other contacts to be checked. And they're screening for other symptoms, not just temperature. So while it is not 100% effective, it is extremely valuable. At from all recent reports, essential.

 

You can believe what you want. There is no indication of what you claim, and their economy is already taking a huge hit with this illness. The more people they lose, the more their economy goes down. They need people to both produce and consume, else they're looking at some significant disruption, like their economy tanking if their customers around the world start switching or developing other suppliers.

The Chinese government censor people from speaking and  telling the truth like how they threat a doctor from warning this virus in December 2019.

[Canoe]

19 hours ago, Flying Sausages said:

 

The government never telling the truth. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chinas-communist-party-faces-recriminations-over-virus/ar-BBZJF9o

https://www.ccn.com/could-the-deadly-coronavirus-actually-be-a-man-made-killer-disease/

 

Ah ha.

But it's all the medical experts that are supplying facts that caught them. You can't have it both ways. If you say the facts that caught them out are lies, does that mean you think the original gov't claims have then become true?

 

Quote

The Wuhan Institute of Virology has been studying coronavirus since at least 2016.

They'd better be!

And I bet it goes waaaay back before 2016.

Coronaviruses, like SARS, are serious risks to their population, hence their economy, exactly like we're seeing right now. They'd be grossly negligent to not be studying them.

 

19 hours ago, Flying Sausages said:

The Chinese government censor people from speaking and  telling the truth like how they threat a doctor from warning this virus in December 2019.

Yes. And that is completely irrelevant to your claims about origin and benefit/motive. That is their typical hiding of situations so it doesn't affect their economy. Only it backfired due to the nature of 2019-nCoV.

[Flying Sausages]

3 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Yes. And that is completely irrelevant to your claims about origin and benefit/motive. That is their typical hiding of situations so it doesn't affect their economy. Only it backfired due to the nature of 2019-nCoV.

The Chinese communist control the media and the people from speaking the truth and make the media says this is nature virus not man made virus. Two viruses outbreak in China. We have a lot of questions to ask the Chinese government.

[Canoe]

19 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/ian-lipkin-scientists-worry-coronavirus-could-become-worse-than-flu.html

That's just one tiny squeak. The past two to three days, it's been increasing among the researchers and doctors.

 

On 2/10/2020 at 5:47 PM, Canoe said:

In other discussions, ...

 

Zones with infections outside of China are reporting:

• imported infections
• transmissions from imported
• transmissions from non-imported
• and now, infections from non-imported, with no known contact with a known carrier

Combine that with roughly half of all transmissions occur while the carrier is in their incubation period, and a number later present with symptoms so mild that they're almost asymptomatic - as in, they're walking around and going to work without any visible symptoms.

Experts seem to be getting concerned about the extent of seeding outside of China, thinking it's likely already in place more thoroughly than detected.

• It could be present but largely hidden, due to so many having mild symptoms, but they're carriers during incubation, after symptoms appear, and possibly shedding and exposing for a period after they recover. Many may never realize, or have realized, that they had something serious.
• They're considering if that seeding is already happening in multiple locations around the world, or soon will as those infected slowly grows, until a breakout which will get detected.
• Calls to plan for, and to consider starting, ramping up hospitals now in preparation for the increasing likelihood of outbreaks.

 

***

 

19 hours ago, Flying Sausages said:

The Chinese communist control the media and the people from speaking the truth and make the media says this is nature virus not man made virus. Two viruses outbreak in China. We have a lot of questions to ask the Chinese government.

Good luck with that.

And it wouldn't make your claims true. They're always doing communications control.

You need facts. And the scientists are saying no. 

So in the absence of supporting facts, no.

[Bombastinator]

2 hours ago, Canoe said:

I believe you have it reversed: the concern is that the Chinese government pushes the businesses to get back producing before overseas customers develop alternate (non-Chinese) suppliers.

6 of one..  Not something government really needs to be concerned with.  Business will take care of business.  

[Bombastinator]

23 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

I

Spoiler

 

just watched a recent documentary show "Zooming In" about the present situation with the Coronavirus in China.

It's on NTD (never heard of it) a NY based news and entertainment channel.

I don't know how valid this is. Seems they run since 2001.

 

But I found some of the information expressed in the show interesting.

 

On another note, on the Diamong Princess (quarantine cruise ship in Japan) the toll (sick people) is now more than 130. Yesterday it was 62.

I read somewhere that on the 3700 passengers on the ship "only" 300 have been tested. Don't really know what this can mean. Do they test only those who start presenting some symptoms? No idea.

 

A good news on the other hand, one of the cruise ship quarantined in HK port has been released and the passengers are now "free"   The suspected infected employees finally are not ^o^

 

Now... The Death toll is more than 900, officially.

 

 

 

Appears to be an epoch times reporter.   Not totally sure.  She’s headlining in epoch times and it appears that it is the only place she’s printed.

Edited February 11, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Bombastinator said:

Appears to be an epoch times reporter.   Not totally sure.  She’s headlining in epoch times and it appears that it is the only place she’s printed.

Frankly I'm not so sure she's working for Epoch Times.

I'm not saying "Yes", I'm not saying "No". I don't know....

 

But what I see listed in the Epoch Times seems "weird" to say the least.

They put a link to her video on Youtube, all there is on the page is the transcription word for word of the documentary. No value added, no real article. Seems more to me (and I can totally be wrong here) as Epoch Times (E.T. ^o^ ) is "using" her content and that's it.

 

Plus the original link I found was to another channel, nothing to do with the Epoch Times. Even though I don't know what "NTD" is...

Weird.

 

AS I said... I don't know.

 

[Bombastinator]

Just now, Cora_Lie said:

Frankly I'm not so sure she's working for Epoch Times.

I'm not saying "Yes", I'm not saying "No". I don't know....

 

But what I see listed in the Epoch Times seems "weird" to say the least.

They put a link to her video on Youtube, all there is on the page is the transcription word for word of the documentary. No value added, no real article. Seems more to me (and I can totally be wrong here) as Epoch Times (E.T. ^o^ ) is "using" her content and that's it.

 

Plus the original link I found was to another channel, nothing to do with the Epoch Times. Even though I don't know what "NTD" is...

Weird.

 

AS I said... I don't know.

 

Well they’re the only one printing her.  Google the name and epoch times is all over the top hits page.  The only thing that beat it was her twitter account.

[Donut417]

23 minutes ago, Flying Sausages said:

s nature virus not man made virus

The fact is its probably a nautrally occuring Virus. Keep in mind due to Global Warming the polar Ice Caps have melted. There has been micro oranisms found in Ice core samples. 

[Canoe]

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

***

 

19 hours ago, Flying Sausages said:

*snip*

Yup.

The conspiracy theorists are out and scrambling. And media is going for anything, to sell more papers/views.

 

> If there are two viruses outbreak in America then we know who is behind all of this.

You think so? They have to do the science first. Like with a certain substance used in England.

 

> Where is who says no?

The scientists studying its genome sequences.

Keep in mind, from an earlier post

On 2/8/2020 at 6:21 AM, Canoe said:

.... A large number of the early research have seen corrections. They were scrambling so quickly, errors are made, the study of such early information is surpassed by new information, or the significance of findings were found to be overstated, and sometimes outright wrong (one group of authors got told by their agency head that their data actually showed the opposite of what they stated their finding was...). It has been an astoundingly rapid response. And the consensus among them allowed the various authorities early and rapidly improving indications of what they were facing.

...

What's really interesting about that early study is how it incorporates a zoonotic link. Later data determined that only around 30% of November cases had a potential zoonotic link, and human to human transmission was the norm.

Watching and waiting on confirmation of reports of a Chinese new paper article said to be based on a unpublished study:

• We maybe found the potential virus original host - the pangolin. A virus strain isolated from it has 99% match with 2019-nCOV. And it was found previously at the market.

 

> Even CDC don't even have a lot of info on this new virus at all.

Of course not. It's a new zoonotic transmission to humans. (believed to be direct - no signs of any vectors yet)

Which is why all those labs around the world study coronaviruses and other pathogens.

 

You've got to start working with facts, not media foder for selling ads. You've destroyed what was an improving signal-to-noise ratio in this thread.

[Letgomyleghoe]

Spoiler

54 minutes ago, Canoe said:

 

 

 

 

Hell yeah this shit was scaring me 

(hidden so y’all don’t have to scroll through it again)

[nyichiban]

As of 2 days ago 908 dead from the virus in China and 40,171 infected (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html). The flu in the US infects 2018-2019 estimates show 35 million+ and deaths at an estimated 34,157. That's just the US alone (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html). Wonder which is worse though. These are not numbers I pulled out of thin air. Just wondering why there is such a big thing over this when compared to the flu. Just saying.

[SpikeSpiegel]

Well bad news from USPS

 

From USPS website

Quote

ALERT: USPS WILL BE TEMPORARILY SUSPENDING THE GUARANTEE ON PRIORITY MAIL EXPRESS INTERNATIONAL DESTINED FOR CHINA
AND HONG KONG, EFFECTIVE MONDAY, FEB. 10, 2020, DUE TO WIDESPREAD AIRLINE CANCELLATIONS AND RESTRICTIONS INTO THIS AREA.

 

[williamcll]

It is reported that around 12k new people in Wuhan are showing fever symptoms daily (source: http://www.bjnews.com.cn/news/2020/02/05/684498.html)

 

 

 

@CanoeThe Falun Gong wasn't responsible for the subway underground attack, that was the Aum Shinrikyo.

 

However, the FG is responsible for a lot of their own counter-propaganda though, they've been using the same ((organ harvesting)) photos for decades. Take the mormons and just remove the any last part of religious belief and replace it with hating communists. Epoch times is pretty much like the CIA's Radio Free Asia but funded through other departments.

 

 

[Canoe]

15 hours ago, nyichiban said:

... Wonder which is worse though. These are not numbers I pulled out of thin air. Just wondering why there is such a big thing over this when compared to the flu. Just saying.

Largely, due to something new with too little known, with the rapid increase in cases, known to be fatal, no known treatment, 'mysterious' transmission (now known asymptomatic carriers). Too little was known, and much is still unknown. Think of standard questions that need answering: how does it spread, how severe is it, how fatal is it, is there a treatment (is it effective), how is it detected, where has it spread to, how is spread stopped, do we have the resources to address this, ...

• The rate of the increase in cases (for example, graphs comparing to SARS)
• There are fatalities
• Not identified/known
• No specific detection test, no specific treatments
• It had already spread through China, and their numbers were also increasing
• Asymptomatic carriers
• How widely it has seeded throughout China
• The case rate in areas whose medical system are not yet overwhelmed
• Infected turning up in various places throughout the world
• The long time from origin in Nov 2019 to hugely increased rate of infection in mid January
  • will that happen elsewhere
• The outcome of 88% of Confirmed cases is still unresolved - unknown.

 

15 hours ago, williamcll said:

...

@CanoeThe Falun Gong wasn't responsible for the subway underground attack, that was the Aum Shinrikyo.

...

I've made no comment about what Falun Gong was or wasn't responsible for.

 

16 hours ago, scuff gang said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Hell yeah this shit was scaring me 

(hidden so y’all don’t have to scroll through it again)

Is it too late for us all to take up model railroading and move over to that thread?

[Guest]

The WHO International Forum on NCP started today.

Here is the opening speech of the WHO CEO, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus:

Spoiler

 

Source: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/research-and-innovation-forum-on-novel-coronavirus-2019

 

In find some of the points mentioned interesting and enlightening. Many are pretty standards.

 

Another point mentioned in the news and not related to this Forum but more to the WHO and the US:

The new announcement by Trump Administration that they will to cut the US funding to WHO by more than half (the New Budget)

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/10/trump-world-health-organization-funding-coronavirus-state-department-usaid-budget-cuts/

I won't make any comment on that.

[Canoe]

A researcher has released results of modelling:

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1226740656229376001

• convert estimates of coalescence to estimates of pathogen prevalence following phylodynamic methods described here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_phylodynamics#Compartmental_models, assuming a range of heterogeneity in secondary transmissions ala https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.917351v1
• This estimates a median prevalence on 8 Feb of 28,500 currently infected with a 95% uncertainty interval of between 7500 and 104,300 currently infected.
• And further estimates a median total incidence on 8 Feb of 55,800 total infections since start of epidemic with a 95% uncertainty interval of between 17,500 and 194,400 total infections.

Note:

Those numbers are within the range of most early projection models, but are on the low side of the numbers projected for Feb 4, 2020.

• When we combine the reported Confirmed cases with Suspected cases (diagnosed 2019-nCoV Mild, not confirmed by test), that number:
  • is in and around 65,000 cases for the past four days,
  • on Feb 8 was 66,497
  • Feb 10 was 64,441
  • Black line on chart
• So the model has a value of 55,800 'total infections since start' and the numbers reported by China combine to a minimum of 66,497 (likely missed detections).

And,

• if Recovered cases are not shedding and are not contagious (not yet known), and
• we assume Suspected are still contagious as their outcome is not known,
• then the known/reported current infected number in mainland China would be:
  • on Feb 8, 62,587
  • on Feb 10, 59,022
• (this is not the Total Infections from above, but minimum current at that time)
• Red line on chart

 

 

6 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

...

Another point mentioned in the news and not related to this Forum but more to the WHO and the US:

The new announcement by Trump Administration that they will to cut the US funding to WHO by more than half (the New Budget)

...

Wonderful.

And how long before some conspiracy addict thinks the CDC did 2019-nCoV to try to preserve funding...

Any bets?

[Guiltyxz]

6 hours ago, Canoe said:

 

Spoiler

 

A researcher has released results of modelling:

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1226740656229376001

• convert estimates of coalescence to estimates of pathogen prevalence following phylodynamic methods described here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_phylodynamics#Compartmental_models, assuming a range of heterogeneity in secondary transmissions ala https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.917351v1
• This estimates a median prevalence on 8 Feb of 28,500 currently infected with a 95% uncertainty interval of between 7500 and 104,300 currently infected.
• And further estimates a median total incidence on 8 Feb of 55,800 total infections since start of epidemic with a 95% uncertainty interval of between 17,500 and 194,400 total infections.

Note:

Those numbers are within the range of most early projection models, but are on the low side of the numbers projected for Feb 4, 2020.

• When we combine the reported Confirmed cases with Suspected cases (diagnosed 2019-nCoV Mild, not confirmed by test), that number:
  • is in and around 65,000 cases for the past four days,
  • on Feb 8 was 66,497
  • Feb 10 was 64,441
  • Black line on chart
• So the model has a value of 55,800 'total infections since start' and the numbers reported by China combine to a minimum of 66,497 (likely missed detections).

And,

• if Recovered cases are not shedding and are not contagious (not yet known), and
• we assume Suspected are still contagious as their outcome is not known,
• then the known/reported current infected number in mainland China would be:
  • on Feb 8, 62,587
  • on Feb 10, 59,022
• (this is not the Total Infections from above, but minimum current at that time)
• Red line on chart

 

•  

 

 

Those are some scary numbers, and its growing quickly. I remember just a week or so ago there were only about 170 deaths, now over 1000

Edited February 11, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Wonderful.

And how long before some conspiracy addict thinks the CDC did 2019-nCoV to try to preserve funding...

Any bets?

No bets on my side. I'm sure they are already running wild.

 

One thing, when I wrote "this Forum", I meant the WHO Forum on NCP, not LTT forum

[Canoe]

6 hours ago, Canoe said:

.

Spoiler

 

..

Note:

Those numbers are within the range of most early projection models, but are on the low side of the numbers projected for Feb 4, 2020.

• When we combine the reported Confirmed cases with Suspected cases (diagnosed 2019-nCoV Mild, not confirmed by test), that number:
  • is in and around 65,000 cases for the past four days,
  • on Feb 8 was 66,497
  • Feb 10 was 64,441
  • Black line on chart
• So the model has a value of 55,800 'total infections since start' and the numbers reported by China combine to a minimum of 66,497 (likely missed detections).

And,

• if Recovered cases are not shedding and are not contagious (not yet known), and
• we assume Suspected are still contagious as their outcome is not known,
• then the known/reported current infected number in mainland China would be:
  • on Feb 8, 62,587
  • on Feb 10, 59,022
• (this is not the Total Infections from above, but minimum current at that time)
• Red line on chart

 

•  

Although we don't know how many Suspected may have later presented with worsened symptoms and been tested and added to Confirmed or possibly removed from Suspected, the peak Suspected with the total Confirmed cases is 73,340 infections.

 

Note that the peak Suspected value is suspect that day due to what was/wasn't in the translation of the CNHC daily update. By the graph a likely value is under that day's charted value by around 2,200 cases, would mean 71,140 infections.

 

I calculated from global values, not mainland China values. Corrected...

 

Although we don't know how many Suspected may have later presented with worsened symptoms and been tested and added to Confirmed or possibly removed from Suspected, the peak Suspected with the total Confirmed cases is 72,883 infections.

 

Note that the peak Suspected value is suspect that day due to what was/wasn't in the translation of the CNHC daily update. By the graph a likely value is under that day's charted value by around 2,200 cases, would mean 70,683 infections.

 

 

 

6 hours ago, Guiltyx said:

Those are some scary numbers, and its growing quickly. I remember just a week or so ago there were only about 170 deaths, now over 1000

I think the big thing with the numbers is that Severe are over 7,000 and 88% of Confirmed Cases are unresolved.

The current fatality rate for Severe Pt.s is 18%: of the current 7,333 Severe (China), 1,319 are projected to die.

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by Canoe
correcting calculation error

[Blademaster91]

14 hours ago, Flying Sausages said:

Airport temperature screening is obsolete because some people won't show symptom at all. Some will show symptom after a day getting in contact with the virus 

 

Yeah that is really concerning, but I'd be more concerned if the Chinese govt is covering up how many infected there actually are, cuz that could skew the survival rate stats quite a bit.

[Canoe]

Various authorities are trying to determine the infected droplet risk:

• known risk - expelled droplets, with heavier droplets falling to the ground sooner (distance, time, matters)
• unknown - does it include aerosols - tiny droplets remain airborne, floating in the air.

Wash surfaces, wash your hands. Sneeze/cough into tissue or your sleeve.

 

With that, there's reports of a Hong Kong apartment building with a cluster of two people infected. This is suspected to be due to the air exhaust system in the building leaking plumbing fecal air into the rest of the building. Seems to be through a dedicated vent stack running parallel to the usual drain stack. As at least one person put it, the shit hit the fan.

• "Environmental Transmission" Leak exists in the toilet of a flat resided by a newly confirmed #nCoV2019 patient, who lives downstairs to HK patient

 

Some saying this could explain why China is 'blocking' (read as quarantine?) entire apartment buildings with suspected patients.

 

Reports that cruise ship passengers were complaining they were stuck in their rooms and the only fresh air was through the ships ventilation ducts. Wanna bet they're not isolation-filtered? Could help explain why cruise ships have such a nasty history with contagion in outbreaks.

 

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by Canoe
corrected cluster to two people, added detail of leak