WHY NANDFLASH/DRAM SHORTAGE?

[ZackCodesAI]

I don't know what is causing the shortage of them, can't they just produce more? Does it have to do with any particular mineral or process?

[Dabombinable]

At lest for Samsung's case it was an "oh, there's a DRAM shortage? We'll ramp up production after months of slacking off".

[Bananasplit_00]

3 minutes ago, Dabombinable said:

At lest for Samsung's case it was an "oh, there's a DRAM shortage? We'll ramp up production after months of slacking off".

Well that's part of it, there is also that massive screw up where someone killed like two billion nand dies twice or something right when DDR4 was launching. 

 

This is also pretty tin-foil hatty but I'd say at least part of the shortage is artificial just so they can charge more

[LogicalDrm]

There was huge factory fire few years back. Right under DDR4 coming to market, SSDs becoming more popular and all smart devices booming.

[ZackCodesAI]

3 minutes ago, huilun02 said:

Long story short, its market collusion to drive prices up for more profit

But then whoever is trying to profit more, why other companies are being their bitch?
Also, which company fabricates it? I bet, if Samsung does, they'd already have enough resources to cover it in a week or so.
And what's up with the dies ? 

[LAwLz]

I don't think there is any evidence for it being collusion, so I'd be very careful saying it is, or trusting anyone who says it is. 

 

25 minutes ago, Zackbare said:

But then whoever is trying to profit more, why other companies are being their bitch?
Also, which company fabricates it? I bet, if Samsung does, they'd already have enough resources to cover it in a week or so.
And what's up with the dies ? 

There are only a few flash manufacturers. I think Samsung owns somewhere around 30% of the market. 

The problem is that you can' rreally just ramp up production easily. You need specialized machines, rooms, and entire production lines. It's not as simple as ordering a new machine and employing a few more people. 

[Dabombinable]

Just now, LAwLz said:

I don't think there is any evidence for it being collusion, so I'd be very careful saying it is, or trusting anyone who says it is. 

 

There are only a few flash manufacturers. I think Samsung owns somewhere around 30% of the market. 

The problem is that you can' rreally just ramp up production easily. You need specialized machines, rooms, and entire production lines. It's not as simple as ordering a new machine and employing a few more people. 

What if production facilities simply weren't running at 100% due to lower demand?

[ZackCodesAI]

35 minutes ago, LAwLz said:

I don't think there is any evidence for it being collusion, so I'd be very careful saying it is, or trusting anyone who says it is. 

 

There are only a few flash manufacturers. I think Samsung owns somewhere around 30% of the market. 

The problem is that you can' rreally just ramp up production easily. You need specialized machines, rooms, and entire production lines. It's not as simple as ordering a new machine and employing a few more people. 

That's why I said, Samsung must already have resources to ramp up and also, Samsung IS the major player of production with (maybe) up to 50% share .

[LAwLz]

13 minutes ago, Zackbare said:

That's why I said, Samsung must already have resources to ramp up and also, Samsung IS the major player of production with (maybe) up to 50% share .

They might not want to ramp up because they think the shortage is temporary. I am not saying that is what is happening, but it might.

 

Also, I'd like a source on that 50% number. That seems really high compared to the NAND marketshare they got (which is around 30%).

[LogicalDrm]

Here's some graph about manufacturers and their share. Hynix was the one with factory fire. You can see it in graph, where their share shrunks by 1/3. https://www.statista.com/statistics/275886/market-share-held-by-leading-nand-flash-memory-manufacturers-worldwide/

Samsung is big one, and they also have foot in so many sections using nand. SSDs, laptops, phones, consoles and so on. Then there's this article talking about Toshiba/Sandisk factory having issues http://thememoryguy.com/did-toshiba-really-lose-3-6-weeks-production/#more-1595

Samsung is just getting all the good bites of competition.

[Fred Castellum]

4 minutes ago, LoGiCalDrm said:

Here's some graph about manufacturers and their share. Hynix was the one with factory fire. You can see it in graph, where their share shrunks by 1/3. https://www.statista.com/statistics/275886/market-share-held-by-leading-nand-flash-memory-manufacturers-worldwide/

Samsung is big one, and they also have foot in so many sections using nand. SSDs, laptops, phones, consoles and so on. Then there's this article talking about Toshiba/Sandisk factory having issues http://thememoryguy.com/did-toshiba-really-lose-3-6-weeks-production/#more-1595

Samsung is just getting all the good bites of competition.

To add to that there is also Micron who is benefiting from the increase in NAND price and demand. 

There use to be a bunch of memory manufactures in the past, internal competition between the companies have cause the number of companies still operating to dwindle. 

[ZackCodesAI]

19 minutes ago, LoGiCalDrm said:

Samsung is big one, and they also have foot in so many sections using nand. SSDs, laptops, phones, consoles and so on. Then there's this article talking about Toshiba/Sandisk factory having issues http://thememoryguy.com/did-toshiba-really-lose-3-6-weeks-production/#more-1595

Samsung is just getting all the good bites of competition.

So then, why did they postponed their new SSD launch? That's when things got blurry for me.

[ZackCodesAI]

1 hour ago, LAwLz said:

They might not want to ramp up because they think the shortage is temporary. I am not saying that is what is happening, but it might.

 

Also, I'd like a source on that 50% number. That seems really high compared to the NAND marketshare they got (which is around 30%).

Okay, so I was wrong, 
https://www.statista.com/statistics/275886/market-share-held-by-leading-nand-flash-memory-manufacturers-worldwide/
Samsung has almost 40% share on NAND flash and 50% on DRAM.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271726/global-market-share-held-by-dram-chip-vendors-since-2010/

[handymanshandle]

4 hours ago, LoGiCalDrm said:

There was huge factory fire few years back. Right under DDR4 coming to market, SSDs becoming more popular and all smart devices booming.

Well that and the iPhones Im sure were taking up a lot of nand chips

[LogicalDrm]

50 minutes ago, wcreek said:

Well that and the iPhones Im sure were taking up a lot of nand chips

You don't include iPhones to smart devices?

[Drak3]

2 minutes ago, LoGiCalDrm said:

You don't include iPhones to smart devices?

Not really, no.

 

5 hours ago, Zackbare said:

what is causing the shortage of them, can't they just produce more?

The huge increase of NAND usage in consumer devices, and even if every company was only operating at half capacity, they can't just double production over night.

[handymanshandle]

1 hour ago, LoGiCalDrm said:

You don't include iPhones to smart devices?

1 hour ago, Drak3 said:

Not really, no.

no

I just kinda put smart phones into a different group than that lol

[Zodiark1593]

Tl'dr, current pricing is the new norm for the foreseeable future.

[R001]

I was looking for articles about this and last thing I read is that Samsung built or already building a new facility/ies to cover the shortage and people were expecting decrease in price start from November/December which is not happening, some people are expecting it in March and some people say it will be gradual so to reach same prices as before, maybe a year and since DRAM 5 is on the way am not even sure we'll see a decrease in DRAM 3, the suggestion is buy and don't wait, who knows really.

[Arkery]

I'm hoping the shortage ends sometime this year, but this could just start a trend and become what we all pay for nand and dram.

 That would suck because that is the only factor keeping me from upgrading CPU and mobo. 

[Mira Yurizaki]

On 12/25/2017 at 5:06 AM, Zackbare said:

That's why I said, Samsung must already have resources to ramp up and also, Samsung IS the major player of production with (maybe) up to 50% share .

Samsung is a huge conglomerate in South Korea. They produce practically anything that remotely resembles modern technology over there. So one could conclude they have to spread their resources around everything they touch.

 

And then there's the problem with charges of corruption between them and high level politicians in the government

[Defunct Lizard]

 

[dizmo]

I find it hilarious how everyone jumps to conspiracies about NAND shortages. Look at what we buy these days. Everything has NAND in it. With the huge explosion of NAND equipped devices, we're of course going to see massive pressure on manufacturing. They have to catch up. You can't just "increase production" to match demand. There's a limit to what each factory can produce.

 

On 12/25/2017 at 4:28 AM, Dabombinable said:

At lest for Samsung's case it was an "oh, there's a DRAM shortage? We'll ramp up production after months of slacking off".

Just going to ignore the tens of billions of dollars they invested into a new factory, as well as expanding capacity at an existing factory in Korea? You don't do that if you're purposely slacking off.

On 12/25/2017 at 4:35 AM, huilun02 said:

Long story short, its market collusion to drive prices up for more profit

Far from the only reason.

2 hours ago, Arkery said:

I'm hoping the shortage ends sometime this year, but this could just start a trend and become what we all pay for nand and dram.

 That would suck because that is the only factor keeping me from upgrading CPU and mobo. 

If waiting for lower pricing is the only reason, it's kind of an odd reason not to buy something you need.