AMD stock price falls >20% in single day on lackluster Q1 earnings.

[mikegray]

13 hours ago, i_build_nanosuits said:

VEGA looks so bad from the leaks right now...no wonder it's going down!

Gotta say, VEGA leaks are one of the biggest reasons I folded yesterday evening and sold my AMD shares at a loss just after the markets closed. I bought in back in January, rode all the way up, took a little profit at the top (thank the Lord for small mercies!), rode all the way back down, and got out about $100 below what I got in for. Thing is, if I had any solid reason to believe that VEGA is going to be a winner (on the level of 290/290x a few years back), I would have weathered the storm in hopes of seeing a big spike when VEGA arrives. Only, so far, every VEGA leak I've seen has strengthened my suspicion that there's a reason AMD is STILL tinkering with it.

It's a crying shame, though. I like AMD. I love the way they bat for the fences every damn time - take freesync or mantle/dx12 - and I've been using their GPUs for 12 years now. Even if I don't have any skin in the game, I really hope they'll succeed - in particular, I hope that VEGA will be "all that" and more. 

[openthatchest]

14 hours ago, Teddy07 said:

why? Which new products will justiy an increase of the stock?

Vega. simply that.

[Teddy07]

1 hour ago, openthatchest said:

Vega. simply that.

Yes, the profit margin will probably be higher but the quantities just aren't there compared to the rx 460-480 sales. That´s why AMD released the mainstream 4xx version first.

[mikegray]

3 hours ago, openthatchest said:

Vega. simply that.

Maybe. Even as a burned investor, I remain an AMD fanboi - it's not AMD's fault that we got ahead of ourselves.

But I'm having bad gut feels about how the community will greet VEGA. I REALLY want to be wrong on this, but I'm still waiting for ANY sign - ANY leak whatsoever - that gives us reason to hope that VEGA will be able to slap around a 1080ti. Given the right pricing, that shouldn't really matter - if it rivals the 1080 for, say, sub-1070 money, it OUGHT to be a killer deal. But in terms of public perception - and generating the kind of hype that would jump start AMD share prices - I think AMD needs a card that makes a big, bold statement: We are back, and we are BOOM!

(That's what the 290x did back in 2014. It howled like a banshee and drank like a boozer, but it moved the pixels in a mighty way.)

OTOH: A sane, mid-high-end price performer (as opposed to an insane, uber-high-end screamer) will be greeted with a yawn, and more questions about AMD's profit margins.

[piemadd]

My friend has like 30 stocks in amd. He has to wait till Evga to sell them, or he looses money

[Spenser1337]

21 minutes ago, mikegray said:

Maybe. Even as a burned investor, I remain an AMD fanboi - it's not AMD's fault that we got ahead of ourselves.

But I'm having bad gut feels about how the community will greet VEGA. I REALLY want to be wrong on this, but I'm still waiting for ANY sign - ANY leak whatsoever - that gives us reason to hope that VEGA will be able to slap around a 1080ti. Given the right pricing, that shouldn't really matter - if it rivals the 1080 for, say, sub-1070 money, it OUGHT to be a killer deal. But in terms of public perception - and generating the kind of hype that would jump start AMD share prices - I think AMD needs a card that makes a big, bold statement: We are back, and we are BOOM!

(That's what the 290x did back in 2014. It howled like a banshee and drank like a boozer, but it moved the pixels in a mighty way.)

OTOH: A sane, mid-high-end price performer (as opposed to an insane, uber-high-end screamer) will be greeted with a yawn, and more questions about AMD's profit margins.

100% agreed but I'm not selling my shares yet

[Doobeedoo]

Though to mention the high spike jump they had. It may also just be a stock drop cause of rumors like Vega and shit, among other things. But whatever. They lately released Zen and will take time to reap it, etc.

 

Need to show that Vega yo.

[Valentyn]

1 hour ago, Implosivetech said:

My friend has like 30 stocks in amd. He has to wait till Evga to sell them, or he looses money

 

EVGA confirmed for Partnering with AMD to create graphics cards!

[Misanthrope]

1 hour ago, mikegray said:

Maybe. Even as a burned investor, I remain an AMD fanboi - it's not AMD's fault that we got ahead of ourselves.

But I'm having bad gut feels about how the community will greet VEGA. I REALLY want to be wrong on this, but I'm still waiting for ANY sign - ANY leak whatsoever - that gives us reason to hope that VEGA will be able to slap around a 1080ti. Given the right pricing, that shouldn't really matter - if it rivals the 1080 for, say, sub-1070 money, it OUGHT to be a killer deal. But in terms of public perception - and generating the kind of hype that would jump start AMD share prices - I think AMD needs a card that makes a big, bold statement: We are back, and we are BOOM!

(That's what the 290x did back in 2014. It howled like a banshee and drank like a boozer, but it moved the pixels in a mighty way.)

OTOH: A sane, mid-high-end price performer (as opposed to an insane, uber-high-end screamer) will be greeted with a yawn, and more questions about AMD's profit margins.

Sorry but it absolutely is their fault. They even paid good fucking money on promoting Polaris and then Ryzen, flying in our very own Linus over there twice and a bunch of other yotubers, etc. Part of their job is to create hype, to get people to get ahead of themselves.

 

The only fault is that there's usually lukewarm performance to back up their hype and people notice. Loyalist will always tell you why you should get an R5 1400 + 580 gaming rig that's great for 1080p and even some 1440p but they never tell you why you shouldn't get a similarly priced i5 7500 + 1060 rig that will outperform AMD on most games unless you follow very specific instructions for AMD which involve waiting a bunch of time for drivers to mature, picking only select AMD friendly games which are still a minority, etc.

 

When it comes to hype I am actually revising my position and would say they need to keep doing what they're doing but they need to fundamentally adjust a few things when it comes to tech and performance and sadly those things might not be possible without more capital so they might get stuck as the off brand again, the "Virtually as good and a few bucks cheaper!" choice but never the "This is just flatout better" top performers.

[79wjd]

1 hour ago, Implosivetech said:

My friend has like 30 stocks in amd. He has to wait till Evga to sell them, or he looses money

Buying at the peak of hype is always a good idea.

 

3 minutes ago, Misanthrope said:

The only fault is that there's usually lukewarm performance to back up their hype and people notice. Loyalist will always tell you why you should get an R5 1400 + 580 gaming rig that's great for 1080p and even some 1440p but they never tell you why you shouldn't get a similarly priced i5 7500 + 1060 rig that will outperform AMD on most games unless you follow very specific instructions for AMD which involve waiting a bunch of time for drivers to mature, picking only select AMD friendly games which are still a minority, etc.

An R5 1400 is better than a 7500. Once overclocked the single threaded performance is similar while the multithreaded performance is much better. The averages of the two will be fairly similar, but the 1400 will have better minimums. 

[Valentyn]

Just now, djdwosk97 said:

Buying at the peak of hype is always a good idea.

 

If you're doing it right, you buy on the Tips, and sell on the Dips. It's how to make the biggest monies!

[Tomsen]

3 minutes ago, Misanthrope said:

Sorry but it absolutely is their fault. They even paid good fucking money on promoting Polaris and then Ryzen, flying in our very own Linus over there twice and a bunch of other yotubers, etc. Part of their job is to create hype, to get people to get ahead of themselves.

What? That is nothing unusual! Companies fly in reviewers all across the world. AMD is the one holding the smallest events. All the promotion for polaris and ryzen probably is close to what nvidia spends on promoting their titan series alone (all speculations, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was true).

 

People are just more inclined to get hyped because of AMD position. It is the underdog! What should they do about it? Not promote their product?

 

 

[79wjd]

5 minutes ago, Tomsen said:

What? That is nothing unusual! Companies fly in reviewers all across the world. AMD is the one holding the smallest events. All the promotion for polaris and ryzen probably is close to what nvidia spends on promoting their titan series alone (all speculations, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was true).

 

People are just more inclined to get hyped because of AMD position. It is the underdog! What should they do about it? Not promote their product?

 

 

It would help if Ryzen wasn't promoted, by AMD, as being the perfect gaming platform of 2017.

[Tomsen]

47 minutes ago, djdwosk97 said:

It would help if Ryzen wasn't promoted, by AMD, as being the perfect gaming platform of 2017.

It wasn't. Perhaps you got a little to hyped?

[Misanthrope]

54 minutes ago, Tomsen said:

What? That is nothing unusual! Companies fly in reviewers all across the world. AMD is the one holding the smallest events. All the promotion for polaris and ryzen probably is close to what nvidia spends on promoting their titan series alone (all speculations, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was true).

 

People are just more inclined to get hyped because of AMD position. It is the underdog! What should they do about it? Not promote their product?

 

 

Well yes, please check the second part of the post you quoted.

[79wjd]

7 minutes ago, Tomsen said:

It wasn't. Perhaps you got a little to hyped?

Lisa Su, the CEO of AMD, literally described a Ryzen R7 1800x + Vega system as the "Dream gaming pc of 2017" in the New Horizon stream. 

On 3/4/2017 at 0:11 AM, djdwosk97 said:

New Horizon (all from the mouth of Lisa Su)

• "AMD loves gaming and we are the only company with high performance cpus and high performance gpus focused on the gaming market." (51:10)
• "This, by the way folks, is the dream gaming pc for 2017..." (55~)
• "We wanted to connect with all of our fans, who love pc gaming, really before our launch. And today is all about showing you what we do best, which is always pushing the envelope on performance, on power, on framerates because you love to game. And you know what, AMD loves to game to, it's absolute in our DNA and every aspect of our being. So just think about our history and some of the great gaming products that we have brought to the market." (18:14)
• "We chose the desktop PC market for our very first product because we love pc gaming and we know you can use all that performance." (22:00)
• In response to Zen or 7700k twitter question - "we're going to answer that question today for sure." - (22:40) (although, arguably this isn't explicitly gaming)
• "Ryzen will enable all of you, enthusiast gamers, digital creators, VR pioneers, and new technology geeks..." (26:30)

 

 

[Valentyn]

Just now, djdwosk97 said:

Lisa Su literally described a Ryzen R7 1800x + Vega system as the "Dream gaming pc of 2017" in the New Horizon stream. 

 

 

Got no Vega though! All we had was Ryzen plus NoVIDEO.

[Tomsen]

6 minutes ago, Misanthrope said:

Well yes, please check the second part of the post you quoted.

I see those statements are rather conflicting...

 

1 minute ago, djdwosk97 said:

Lisa Su literally described a Ryzen R7 1800x + Vega system as the "Dream gaming pc of 2017" in the New Horizon stream. 

 

Oh right. Thats what all the hype is about? Ryzen can be a dream gaming PC in 2017... A single statement in an almost hour long conference.. No actual advertising. So what are you missing?

[Misanthrope]

1 hour ago, djdwosk97 said:

Buying at the peak of hype is always a good idea.

 

An R5 1400 is better than a 7500. Once overclocked the single threaded performance is similar while the multithreaded performance is much better. The averages of the two will be fairly similar, but the 1400 will have better minimums. 

That discussion is beyond the scope of this thread but to be succinct: 

 

 

This is the best case scenario for the 1400, a slight win. Whereas:

 

 

So I don't really see how numbers like this contradicts with what I said: Most games it finishes very close and on select games it surpasses but it is really not a massive difference. Better minimums and productivity is about the best argument you can make for the chip but to a gamer is really nothing groundbreaking it's just a decent competitor. Certainly not "I5s are obsolete now" as many where expecting.

[79wjd]

5 minutes ago, Tomsen said:

Oh right. Thats what all the hype is about? Ryzen can be a dream gaming PC in 2017... A single statement in an almost hour long conference.. No actual advertising. So what are you missing?

It wasn't just a single statement. Throughout that entire stream they were talking about how Ryzen has a heavy focus on gaming and at one point she smirked when someone asked about a 7700k vs. Ryzen cpu. 

 

And besides, it was described as "the dream gaming pc of 2017" (not A DREAM, THE DREAM), all that does is drive up hype to ridiculous levels that Ryzen clearly hasn't met, and that's where the problem lies. And if the CEO promoting a new platform in the announcement stream isn't advertising, then I don't know what is. 

[Spenser1337]

5 minutes ago, djdwosk97 said:

It wasn't just a single statement. Throughout that entire stream they were talking about how Ryzen has a heavy focus on gaming and at one point she smirked when someone asked about a 7700k vs. Ryzen cpu. 

 

And besides, it was described as "the dream gaming pc of 2017" (not A DREAM, THE DREAM), all that does is drive up hype to ridiculous levels that Ryzen clearly hasn't met, and that's where the problem lies. And if the CEO promoting a new platform in the announcement stream isn't advertising, then I don't know what is. 

Wow the CEO of a company smiled? Jesus Christ the Gaul on her

[AntonChigurh]

4 minutes ago, djdwosk97 said:

It wasn't just a single statement. Throughout that entire stream they were talking about how Ryzen has a focus on gaming and at one point she smirked when someone asked about a 7700k vs. Ryzen cpu. 

 

And besides, it was described as "the dream gaming pc of 2017", all that does is drive up hype to ridiculous levels that Ryzen clearly hasn't met, and that's where the problem lies. 

The Ryzen hype was truly ridiculous, and tbh AMD took it a little far. If they had given people realistic expectations of what Ryzen was going to be, instead of generating as much hype as possible and trying to make people think it's the next "7700k killer", Ryzen would have had much better success

[79wjd]

5 minutes ago, Spenser1337 said:

Wow the CEO of a company smiled? Jesus Christ the Gaul on her

She also implied a 7700k is a joke in comparison. Again, what she says isn't the only thing that matters (but again, calling something "the dream gaming pc" implies it kicks the shit or at least matches the best alternative), how it is perceived is what matters -- there's a reason why these companies have massive PR departments and why presenters get briefed ahead of time. AMD drove hype to ridiculous levels that Ryzen was unable to meet.

4 minutes ago, N1ghtshade said:

The Ryzen hype was truly ridiculous, and tbh AMD took it a little far. If they had given people realistic expectations of what Ryzen was going to be, instead of generating as much hype as possible and trying to make people think it's the next "7700k killer", Ryzen would have had much better success

Exactly. 

[AntonChigurh]

4 minutes ago, djdwosk97 said:

She also implied a 7700k is a joke in comparison.

Congratulations AMD, you played yourself.

 

[MoonSpot]

1 hour ago, Misanthrope said:

So I don't really see how numbers like this contradicts with what I said: Most games it finishes very close and on select games it surpasses but it is really not a massive difference. Better minimums and productivity is about the best argument you can make for the chip but to a gamer is really nothing groundbreaking it's just a decent competitor. Certainly not "I5s are obsolete now" as many where expecting.

Obsolete might be a stretch, but would you buy a new 4 thread CPU over a 12 or 8 threaded one for basically the same $ off the store shelf?

Sure looks like the i5s(as we currently know them) are being handed their hat at least.