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Moore's Law to End By 2020

4Strings

Interesting article. Ex-Intel chip architect says that Moore's Law will "end" by 2020.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/08/29/darpa-chief-and-intel-fellow-moores-law-is-ending-soon/

He says that once hardware slow or stops improving so rapidly, we'll have to start focusing on software improvements instead.

Thoughts?

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Well, that's unfortunate... 

I like the color scheme of Noctua fans. Deal with it. Forget about the bad memories of the past.


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Forget about the bad memories of the past, take the good ones along with you through the present, and look forwards to the good things that will come in the future.

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Moore's Law will have to end eventually, since things can only get so small. And transistors become harder to turn off when they get smaller. Eventually if they get small enough, quantum physics takes over - particularly quantum tunneling.

"It pays to keep an open mind, but not so open your brain falls out." - Carl Sagan.

"I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you" - Edward I. Koch

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It also means that consoles and PC gaming performance won't increase, so the advantages of PC gaming will be far less lucrative.

“The value of a college education is not the learning of many facts but the training of the mind to think”

 

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Imagine, tech guys in 20 years. Hey your i7 8888990000k is rubbish, its only 0.2nm die size.

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Listen if you care.

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This is most unfortunate... I mean it's not really giantly surprising since it seems like less and less big breakthroughs that increase performance a ton actually happen anymore.

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I don't think it will matter that much, when you see from where we come we will probably have in 2020 so much cpu power a gamer won't need more because it can probably handle everything you want. I really think games have such a high detail that it won't take long when adding more detail won't increase the gaming experience.

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This is most unfortunate... I mean it's not really giantly surprising since it seems like less and less big breakthroughs that increase performance a ton actually happen anymore.

Yeah... The 4930k has slightly better performance than a 3930k...

I like the color scheme of Noctua fans. Deal with it. Forget about the bad memories of the past.


"wunder you really are as straight as a rainbow" - Lanoi "can I fisterino your nose" - WunderWuffle


Forget about the bad memories of the past, take the good ones along with you through the present, and look forwards to the good things that will come in the future.

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At the end of Moore's lawI believe performance will be squeezed out of chips by having a number of highly specialized code run on a number of highly specialized cores.

Each type of these specialized cores can only process one type of data but it would do so at speeds orders of magnitude greater than a serial processor, just like GPUs are orders of magnitude faster than CPUs at processing video data, similarly other types of processors will be developed each with its own specialty.

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It also means that consoles and PC gaming performance won't increase, so the advantages of PC gaming will be far less lucrative.

cloud computing. servers will do all the heavy lifting eventually.

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i don't know how i live without Moore's law, its been the only way to predict when to upgrade my stuff. guess il just have to have the same tech forever :) 

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it will be interesting to see what happens. But that computers will get faster as time moves on is indisputable, waaaay too many nerds out there. We just may not be following moores law anymore

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Imagine, tech guys in 20 years. Hey your i7 8888990000k is rubbish, its only 0.2nm die size.

That size is downright impossible.

"It pays to keep an open mind, but not so open your brain falls out." - Carl Sagan.

"I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you" - Edward I. Koch

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That size is downright impossible.

Maybe in Mars. Not here son

cpu: intel i5 4670k @ 4.5ghz Ram: G skill ares 2x4gb 2166mhz cl10 Gpu: GTX 680 liquid cooled cpu cooler: Raijintek ereboss Mobo: gigabyte z87x ud5h psu: cm gx650 bronze Case: Zalman Z9 plus


Listen if you care.

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I know this will end, but I do not want it to.

 

 

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I remember when they said that 1000Mhz was going to the fastest a cpu could run....

One thing with barriers, they are designed to be broken...

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Maybe in Mars. Not here son

It's impossible no matter where you are unless you live in a different universe bound by different laws of physics.

"It pays to keep an open mind, but not so open your brain falls out." - Carl Sagan.

"I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you" - Edward I. Koch

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but wouldn't i be right in saying that while they can't decrease the size (until graphene etc becomes possible) they can still add more cores etc, to make a larger, flatter die? thus making more room for cores and performance.

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but wouldn't i be right in saying that while they can't decrease the size (until graphene etc becomes possible) they can still add more cores etc, to make a larger, flatter die? thus making more room for cores and performance.

Yes, but it would mean more electricity being consumed.

"It pays to keep an open mind, but not so open your brain falls out." - Carl Sagan.

"I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you" - Edward I. Koch

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I don't think Moore's Law is gonna end. Most likely it's getting halted for some time. We are approaching a state where you can't get smaller with silicon chips, but when technology advances and quantum computing becomes reality, Moore's Law will probably resume or even be surpassed.

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It's impossible no matter where you are unless you live in a different universe bound by different laws of physics.

I have my own law its called: Fuck the police. Works very well apart from the actual police.

cpu: intel i5 4670k @ 4.5ghz Ram: G skill ares 2x4gb 2166mhz cl10 Gpu: GTX 680 liquid cooled cpu cooler: Raijintek ereboss Mobo: gigabyte z87x ud5h psu: cm gx650 bronze Case: Zalman Z9 plus


Listen if you care.

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don't forget that once we see an end to process nodes, we can always just increase clock speeds. optimizing hardware is still an option, just because we can no longer make the transistors smaller doesn't mean we can't perfect hardware.

 

coupled with lowering power requirements and better cooling, we can increase performance just by increasing the clock speed too.

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