Will Apple be the Next Nokia?

[kiranbl]

I frequently watch a news channel postings on youtube. the channel is called "Wion". There is a segment of the news called " Gravitas Plus" where every week they present a topic. this week there was an interesting topic called "Will Apple be the Next Nokia?"

 

Here is the link for that video: Gravitas Plus: Will Apple be the Next Nokia? - YouTube

 

Here is the synopsis of the video with the reference links:

1. Apple is more dependent on sales from emerging markets and speaks about collapse of sales in china (Apple's largest phone market)   
ref: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeanbaptiste/2019/01/03/apple-issues-profit-warning-cuts-revenue-outlook-by-17-billion-amid-pricey-iphone-sales-drop/?sh=5b5f5af1267e

2. Tim Cook in the letter to investors: People Bought Fewer New iPhones Because They Repaired Their Old Ones 

So this is leading to their sales revenue down 
Ref: https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2019/01/letter-from-tim-cook-to-apple-investors/

3. Goldman Sachs thinks that Apple could be the next Nokia

Ref: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/goldman-sachs-says-apple-will-have-to-cut-2019-numbers.html

4. Spending on innovation is lower than any other tech Giants 

5. iPhone total revenue decline YoY 

Ref: https://www.statista.com/statistics/253649/iphone-revenue-as-share-of-apples-total-revenue/

6. Apple Inc. warned investors that the company’s financial results would be hurt if the amount paid from App Store downloads and subscriptions is reduced or eliminated.

Ref: https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/apple-warns-that-reduced-app-store-cut-would-hurt-results

Edited December 21, 2020 by kiranbl
was asked to add synopsis

[LogicalDrm]

2 hours ago, kiranbl said:

Watch the complete video and let me know your thoughts

How 'bout you give synopsis instead. Like whats the main reason/answer to the question. Do they mean Apple will stop innovating, their leadership makes some bad decisions on management bonus system, prep company to be sold to Microsoft (and then reborn several years later)? Or do they perhaps start to make indestructible phones that are actually accessible to all?

 

If you are trying to reach LMG staff, you need to make much better preface than just direct them to watch someone else's content. WAN Show topics use others content, but only if its somehow news of the week, breaking or otherwise relevant. In there they also lean heavily on this forums Tech News section, which does allow video sources, but you are still required to spell content out.

[Mark Kaine]

Well, uh, maybe, but I think it's unlikely? 

 

Whatever colossal fuck up Nokia* did, I doubt Apple is stupid enough to do the same... 

 

 

*just looked this up, no chance in hell Apple does anything remotely this stupid (especially partnering with Microsoft lmao) 

 

https://medium.com/swlh/what-happened-to-nokia-2a920b622d52

 

 

(for anyone wondering, it was software and a stubborn CEO) 

[RageTester]

I still have Nokia phone with Symbian OS, not using it anymore though... Not planning to ever buy apple products.

But I bet many people wish apple priced their phones as nokia...

[AndreiArgeanu]

No. apple has to make some big mistakes for that to happen, and even if they do there's always people willing to throw their money away for the apple logo regardless of the actual quality of the product, or it's functional issues.

[kiranbl]

7 hours ago, LogicalDrm said:

How 'bout you give synopsis instead. Like whats the main reason/answer to the question. Do they mean Apple will stop innovating, their leadership makes some bad decisions on management bonus system, prep company to be sold to Microsoft (and then reborn several years later)? Or do they perhaps start to make indestructible phones that are actually accessible to all?

 

If you are trying to reach LMG staff, you need to make much better preface than just direct them to watch someone else's content. WAN Show topics use others content, but only if its somehow news of the week, breaking or otherwise relevant. In there they also lean heavily on this forums Tech News section, which does allow video sources, but you are still required to spell content out.

I am not trying to reach any of the staff members. Just wanted to know the opinions and thoughts of the people about this. Thank you.

[jollander]

Would be nice with a synopsis and not just a link. 

[unsorted]

I haven't watched the video but I see no parallels. The media is all about eyeballs, sensationalism and click--bait garbage.

 

Apple has plenty of anti-customer practice:

* (spying https://sneak.berlin/20201112/your-computer-isnt-yours/ ), 

* hardware faults

* anti-repair serialisation practices

...that would only see me buy their older second-hand hardware, if that.

In many ways, they are just like everyone else. All of them are State Spyware outfits.

 

They don't deserve to be rewarded with new product purchases, nor any private data being stored on their servers. But I see absolutely no parallels with NOKIA as far as their business health goes. They have too many loyal fans, despite all this.

 

NOKIA was clearly crumbling years before it actually happened. They were too slow to change. Quality and user-experience was going downhill. Meego was promising but too late.

[pipicat6489]

well, nobody knows the furture, so i guess maybe?

 

[SpaceGhostC2C]

11 hours ago, kiranbl said:

I frequently watch a news channel postings on youtube.

You watch? Just watch? No other involvement?

 

[kiranbl]

5 hours ago, jollander said:

Would be nice with a synopsis and not just a link. 

Updated with synopsis

 

[kiranbl]

12 hours ago, LogicalDrm said:

How 'bout you give synopsis instead. Like whats the main reason/answer to the question. Do they mean Apple will stop innovating, their leadership makes some bad decisions on management bonus system, prep company to be sold to Microsoft (and then reborn several years later)? Or do they perhaps start to make indestructible phones that are actually accessible to all?

 

If you are trying to reach LMG staff, you need to make much better preface than just direct them to watch someone else's content. WAN Show topics use others content, but only if its somehow news of the week, breaking or otherwise relevant. In there they also lean heavily on this forums Tech News section, which does allow video sources, but you are still required to spell content out.

Updated the synopsis. Thank you

[LogicalDrm]

2 hours ago, kiranbl said:

Updated the synopsis. Thank you

Thanks.

 

I can see some similarities, but I've also read a book detailing Nokia's business decisions, and watched documentary about the technology side. So with those Apple has more room to work with. Nokia was always more geared for average user. Apple has always been for status symbol position. Even with their SE-series with older hardware and cheaper price. That's really not enough to please Chinese or southeast Asia markets overall.

 

Phones being expensive is the reason for repairing rather than buying a new. It's just cheaper. If Apple would make phone to actually compete with Xiaomi and other cheaper brands, they would be in very good position. So it's bit opposite from Nokia as Nokia didn't know how to grab the upper end of the customer base.

 

@Mark Kaine

The downfall of Nokia is bit more complex than just "software and stubborn CEO". The bonus system for management was one of the key elements. Nokia had the technology, and could have had the developers to choose from. The bonus system meant that management was hesitant to try actually new and innovative things, without knowing how the markets would react. So the innovation was slow and limited to some very weird decisions. Like Samsungs flip phones were very popular and Nokia didn't really have answers.

 

As last, maybe lighter point. It's pretty much known fact that Nokia had the touch screen technology figured out long before Apple came to markets. They had prototype with vertical scrolling. Engineer responsible told that Steve Jobs saw it in some event. He's only question was, why it didn't have horizontal scrolling. The engineer told (in documentary I watched) that when he saw first iPhone launch years later he threw that prototype in to the wall. It still worked fine...

[NineEyeRon]

Apple already are the new Nokia and have been for years.

 

Nokia were everywhere in their time, now it’s and has been Apple.

 

Apple have probably held their spot longer than Nokia did but Nokia were first.

[lumo94]

Interesting question, but I don’t think so. Nokia primarily died because their products were made obsolete by a revolution in the industry they didn’t adapt to (the iPhone). If Nokia had of rapidly adopted Android they would probably still be a huge phone maker. Unfortunately they just didn’t have the engineering ability to develop their own OS that was on the same level as iOS and Android, which they should have recognised sooner and gone with Android. They certainly tried, but they were late to the party in updating Symbian to be touch first and it just wasn’t as good. I don’t think a product that suddenly makes the iPhone obsolete is on the horizon. Even if it is, I think Apple are more likely to have the resources to respond to it quicker than Nokia did. Plus, although incredibly dependent on the iPhone, Apple does have a more diverse product range than Nokia did. If iPad and iPhone sales go off a cliff, the Mac could probably keep them alive.

[Prodigy_Smit]

I highly doubt that is happening. Apple is a multibillion dollar giant just like Nokia once was but they are far away from the disaster that befell Nokia. Atleast for the next 10 or so years there will most likely not be a major change in mobile technology besides maybe folding phones. That is what killed Nokia the revolutionary iPhone but I don't see something that game changing appearing soon. 

10 hours ago, unsorted said:

(spying https://sneak.berlin/20201112/your-computer-isnt-yours/ ), 

The ironic part is that windows does this alot more than Apple.

10 hours ago, unsorted said:

They have too many loyal fans, despite all this.

There is alot more to apple success than this.

2 hours ago, LogicalDrm said:

I've also read a book detailing Nokia's business decisions

Which one? I would be interested in reading it.

[LogicalDrm]

22 minutes ago, Prodigy_Smit said:

Which one? I would be interested in reading it.

Finnish book about biggest business mistakes ever made in this country There was two examples of Nokia. One was the insurance/pension companies pulling out just before Nokia's big break in the mid-90s and then the downfall and selling the business to Microsoft way too cheap in early 2010s. If you know Finnish, https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25188668-suomen-pahimmat-bisnesmokat

 

E: This is the documentary https://player.vimeo.com/video/224187348

There's also BBC documentary, which I might need to watch at some point.

Edited December 21, 2020 by LogicalDrm

[kiranbl]

23 minutes ago, Prodigy_Smit said:

Which one? I would be interested in reading it.

Transforming NOKIA: The Power of Paranoid Optimism to Lead Through Colossal Change by Risto Siilasmaa (goodreads.com)

 

This is also a good book. Author was one of the board of directors when Nokia was in steep decline. This book will have all the insights of what transpired in Nokia. Once the Phone business was sold off, the Author Risto Siilasmaa was the interim CEO before the current CEO took charge.

[Prodigy_Smit]

2 hours ago, LogicalDrm said:

Finnish book about biggest business mistakes ever made in this country There was two examples of Nokia. One was the insurance/pension companies pulling out just before Nokia's big break in the mid-90s and then the downfall and selling the business to Microsoft way too cheap in early 2010s. If you know Finnish, https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25188668-suomen-pahimmat-bisnesmokat

 

E: This is the documentary https://player.vimeo.com/video/224187348

There's also BBC documentary, which I might need to watch at some point.

Well I don't understand Finnish so thanks anyway.

Might watch that documentary tho.

 

2 hours ago, kiranbl said:

Transforming NOKIA: The Power of Paranoid Optimism to Lead Through Colossal Change by Risto Siilasmaa (goodreads.com)

 

This is also a good book. Author was one of the board of directors when Nokia was in steep decline. This book will have all the insights of what transpired in Nokia. Once the Phone business was sold off, the Author Risto Siilasmaa was the interim CEO before the current CEO took charge.

Cool Ill check it out.

[unsorted]

13 hours ago, Prodigy_Smit said:

The ironic part is that windows does this alot more than Apple.

 

I am running Linux now. I think that says it all. Both OSs are spyware. Let alone the mobile stuff. This makes Apple's privacy propaganda in their presentatios particularly laughable though.

 

Re: book

I remember reading about this book ages ago:

http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/reviews/item/20426_Smartphones_and_Beyond.php

 

might be worth checking out.

 

 

 

[Mark Kaine]

22 hours ago, LogicalDrm said:

-snip-

well, I didn't know all that, but it's still mostly a management issue, and failure to innovate, no? 

 

Which is something I just don't see happening with Apple, I think they're well aware they need to keep being "innovative" as seen with their new M1 chips and whatnot... they also have a much longer heritage than Nokia and have dealt with near bankruptcy before... that's not to say it could never happen, I just don't see it in the current market... 

 

They might lose market share though, I could definitely see that happening. 

 

Thanks for the info though the whole Nokia story is a weird one, and a sad one... I wish their current phone line would be more up to snuff, although maybe it's not even that bad, I almost got a Nokia recently, but decided for a midrange Samsung which is pretty terrible all around, and the last Samsung phone I'll buy for sure... so many restrictions, the screen is unresponsive as hell and Samsung this, Samsung that anywhere...

[LogicalDrm]

2 hours ago, Mark Kaine said:

they also have a much longer heritage than Nokia

Have to respond just this, rest of the post I agree mostly. But Nokia as company has been around much longer than Apple, and in electronics about same time. The history of starts in late 19th century as basic industry. But even as electronics manufacturing it has been doing since 70s. With radio phones and televisions, later with early cellular networks and devices (NMT and GSM).

 

For Nokia, the equivalent of bankruptcy was the sale of smart phone department to Microsoft. They did continue as networking company (after some buy-outs and merges they are still largest before Ericsson and Huawei), so there's only been shift in business. For Apple it would be much harder hit to lose mobile markets. So for Apple similar would be to cut and sell of their PC side to someone like LG. They would survive, but lose their roots.

[Master Disaster]

For me, the biggest difference and the reason why Apple won't end up like Nokia is the fact Apple have conditioned their consumers to not expect anything revolutionary or groundbreaking. Apple are like the Porsche of the tech world, they are the masters of selling you less stuff for more money.

 

Nokia got very big because they made the first phones that appealed to the mass market, they failed because they refuse to move on from Symbian.

 

Apple were already big long before they ever touched a smart phone and Tim Cook has spent years moulding his customers into loyalists, heck even Jobs & Woz did that to a lesser extent. Apple could literally shit in a box and the loyalists would queue overnight to get one.

[Mark Kaine]

30 minutes ago, LogicalDrm said:

Have to respond just this, rest of the post I agree mostly. But Nokia as company has been around much longer than Apple, and in electronics about same time

Ah, alright I just thought about Nokia as the mobile phone company, even though I knew they make other stuff, that's makes sense I guess. 

 

Did Nokia buy back the mobile part from Microsoft btw or how does that work? (they theoretically could just make phones without having to buy anything back I guess, but I don't know) 

 

22 minutes ago, Master Disaster said:

For me, the biggest difference and the reason why Apple won't end up like Nokia

It could very well happen, but not right now, there needs to some market disruption, similar to when ironically Apple and Google came up with the first smartphones successfully which was what got Nokia in trouble in the first place... 

 

But yeah, it's unlikely anytime soon, nowadays there don't seem to be big tech advancements anymore, but I suppose this will change "at some point". 

[LogicalDrm]

8 minutes ago, Mark Kaine said:

Did Nokia buy back the mobile part from Microsoft btw or how does that work? (they theoretically could just make phones without having to buy anything back I guess, but I don't know) 

I thought they did. But in reality it seems like HMD Global is not connected directly to current Nokia. So the trademark/brand belongs to different company.