corona virus

[Entropy.]

1 hour ago, greenmax said:

Well to start a lawsuit there needs to be no reason whatsoever, but whats happening with the virus I can see law suits against the cruise line, the Canadian government, the airline, the army base and who ever else is involved.

 

Time lost

Wages lost

 

 

wdym? filed by who? normal people?

[Canoe]

On 2/21/2020 at 7:12 AM, greenmax said:

....just wait until it hits a 3rd world country!

On 2/21/2020 at 7:14 AM, Canoe said:

That's exactly what the WHO seems to be most worried about.

Distribution of testing kits continues...

 

***

 

Quote

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, resisted the notion Friday that the outbreak was at a tipping point. But he did tell reporters that the “window of opportunity” to stop spread of the virus is shrinking.

“Our window of opportunity is narrowing,” said Tedros, as he is known. “We need to act quickly before it closes completely.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/21/coronavirus-picking-up-steam-outside-china/

 

A fuller quote is a little less dire...

 

Quote

 

"Although the window of opportunity is narrowing to contain the outbreak, we still have a chance to contain it," he said,  adding that China's "serious measures" in Wuhan and Hubei province could help contain the coronavirus. However, he noted that the outbreak "could go any direction."

He encouraged countries around the world to keep working on containment while also stepping up measures to prepare for the possibility of more widespread transmission. 

"What I'm saying is — it's in our hands now. If we do well within the narrowing window of opportunity ... we can avert any serious crisis," Tedros said. 

...

The daily WHO briefing came after Chinese officials said the coronavirus outbreak there has not yet reached its peak.

"A turning point in the development of the national epidemic situation has not yet arrived," concluded the meeting, chaired by President Xi Jinping, according to state television.

"The epidemic prevention and control situation in Hubei province and Wuhan city remains severe and complex."

 

 https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-feb-21-1.5470987

 

***

 

On 2/17/2020 at 9:12 PM, PhantomJaguar77 said:

I personally don’t like how my country handled the evacuation for those on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. They picked up passengers off the cruise ship before quarantine ended and resulted with 14 of those on the plane testing positive for the virus....

On 2/17/2020 at 9:17 PM, Canoe said:

As per a NYTimes article, Those 14 had tested negative, but the last test before flight they tested positive. ...

More on that out

WashingtonPost: Coronavirus-infected Americans flown home against CDC’s advice

***

 

in a different tone...

 

***

 

Quote

A central Beijing hospital reported 36 novel coronavirus cases as of Thursday, a sharp increase from nine cases from two weeks earlier, leading many to fear a potential explosion of infection numbers in the capital.
Among the infected at Fuxing Hospital in Xicheng district were eight medical workers, nine cleaning staff and 19 patients along with their families, the Beijing government's leading group for COVID-19 prevention and control work said at a press conference on Thursday.
"Considering 36 confirmed cases were found in Fuxing Hospital, it is more about one case of multiple infections rather than an epidemic of the whole area," Wang Guangfa, director of the department of respiratory and critical care medicine at Peking University First Hospital, told the Global Times on Thursday.
Another major hospital, Peking University People's Hospital, on Thursday for the first time reported confirmed cases of infection. Three patients at the hospital were confirmed to have the novel coronavirus on February 17 and were sent to designated medical institutions for treatment, authorities at the press conference said. 

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1180281.shtml

 

***

 

Wanting to capatalize on U.S. Tourists who are now hesitent to travel overseas, Dallas now has their Leaning Tower of Dallas'.

 

[PhantomJaguarr]

My cousin was due to study abroad in Italy for 6 weeks.

 

Officials ordered schools, public buildings, restaurants and coffee shops in ten towns in northern Italy to close after a cluster of 14 new COVID-19 cases emerged. All cases were located in the Lombardy region where a 38-year-old  man fell ill with the virus after meeting someone who returned from China in late January. Five doctors and nurses and several patients were infected at the hospital in Codogno where he was treated.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-italy-orders-mass-closures-after-covid-19-cases-quadruple/a-52467865

[Canoe]

14 minutes ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

My cousin was due to study abroad in Italy for 6 weeks.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-italy-orders-mass-closures-after-covid-19-cases-quadruple/a-52467865

yup

they have community transmission

https://linustechtips.com/main/topic/1149427-corona-virus/?do=findComment&comment=13314355

 

I'm trying to find verification on this, from Feb 18:

https://twitter.com/OdysseusIthake

https://twitter.com/OdysseusIthake/status/1229932958032723969

• Think just that today 2500 Chinese citizens will land in Italy from Zhejiang province (the fourth in number of infected) without any systematical control or even quarantine !
• They prepared a tiny structure with some professionals that could test/isolate people returning from China but no quarantine. The governor of the region has declared : "We have to be more concerned about influenza than Coronavirus".
• 2000 people would go to Prato (Tuscany) and 500 to Firenze
• They are putting the whole Western Europe at risk, 500 of them would go to Florence ! Florence, a city full of tourists and people from all over the world.

[SpikeSpiegel]

 

Corona Virus is getting worse in South Korea too.

[Canoe]

I told my sisters that if Dad wanted some excitement in his retirement, he could go down to the mall ...

 

 

(We had a big storm here some years ago, with the power out for hundreds of thousands. He's ex military. He heard of difficulties there were having at one of the rural emerg sites, so he drove out, walked in, took over, got them organized and ran it for a few weeks, until things were back again. We were wondering were he went.)

[Canoe]

http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202002/543cc508978a48d2b9322bdc83daa6fd.shtml

Feb 21

New Cases:

China 397 (Hubei 366 (Wuhan 314)).

 

Quote

注：湖北省将2月19日核减的病例数重新加回到确诊病例，并对当日新增病例数进行校正。据此，2月19日0—24时，全国新增确诊病例订正为820例，全国累计确诊病例订正为75002例，全国累计出院病例订正为16157例。2月20日0—24时，全国累计确诊病例订正为75891例，全国累计出院病例订正为18266例。

Which google translates as

Quote

Note: Hubei Province added the number of cases reduced on February 19 back to confirmed cases, and adjusted the number of new cases on the day. Accordingly, from 04:00 to 24:00 on February 19, the number of newly confirmed cases nationwide was revised to 820, the cumulative number of confirmed cases nationwide was revised to 75002, and the cumulative number of discharged patients nationwide was revised to 16,157. At 04:00 on February 20, the cumulative number of confirmed cases nationwide was 75,891, and the cumulative number of discharged cases nationwide was 18,266.

[Canoe]

The recent CSSE data is regularly under reporting compared to the CNHC numbers for China.

Substituting in the CNHC number for Hubei to replace the CSSE Hubei data, is getting rather close to a match.

For Confirmed, Deaths and Released, for Hubei, CSSE under reports by 792 Confirmed, 106 Deaths and 1,676 Recovered.

After using the CNHC Hubei data in place of the CSSE Hubei data, the numbers are under stated by 24 Confirmed, 3 deaths and 290 Recovered. Not Material for the resolution of the graph.

(The CSSE dashboard hasn't been updating often for me today. They were updating up to every 15 minutes. Might be a browser problem on my end.)

 

 

 

***

 

 

 

Edited February 22, 2020 by Canoe
transposed a value wrong

[Guest]

1 case in Lebanon linked to the Iranian Cluster

1 case in Canada linked to the Iranian Cluster

 

In Italy among the 14 new cases there are 5 "medical workers" from Codogno (near Milan) are working at the same hospital where the 38yo man who came back from China is and he is in critical condition.

The man came back from China with is pregnant wife and one of their friends. All 3 are in hospital the husband and wife both in critical condition in different hospitals. Their friend's state is unknown. The wife and the friend both are in a hospital in Milan.

 

In China there are several new clusters, mainly in prisons (3 in Hubei, 1 in Shandong, 1 in Zhejiang). Seems that all of them are linked with guards infecting prisoners (541 cases).

Plus the new developping cluster in Beijing and 2 other provinces as people are coming back to work again.

 

Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/21/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/canada-lebanon-report-iran-linked-covid-19-cases-concerns-rise

 

Regarding todays WHO report

the content and body language of the intervening members from the WHO is "worrying".

Worrying in the sense that they repeted several times that the "window of opportunity for containment is narrowing" (has been already stated in another post) and that if the opportunity is squandered then we are in for a big messy thing.

Has also been repeated several times that "all they can and will do is make general suggestions" and the countries involved will take the measures they deem propotionate to he situation they face.

Meaning, the countries do what they want, they (WHO) can only hope for real information and they can only suggest, nothing more.

 

The passage I find most worrying or the more "telling" is the one at 56:50

The body language here is really telling... the lips, the elusive eye contact, the way the shoulders slumped suddenly.

I love the "we will tell you as soon as possible..." at the same time. We're already in it.

 

The other thing which worries me in a sense is that we are not hearing anything from Africa yet, except for Egypt andf its 1 case.

The fact is that China has very tight relatioships with most of the African countries and has a big chinese community everywhere in Africa.

 

A recent article (2 days ago)  in the Lancet  PIIS0140673620304116.pdf names the most "at risk countries in Africa" as Algeria, Egypt and South Africa because of their direct fly routes between China and the African continent.

Quote

Cluster number 1: Algeria, Angola, Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

Cluster number 2: Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Madagascar, Mozambique, Rwanda, Senegal, and Tunisia.

Cluster number 3: Botswana and Lesotho. Countries in grey were estimated to have a negligible risk of entry at the time of analysis.

I understand their logic, but I disagree with their conclusion, as yes there is some high traffic by flight, BUT the highest traffic between China and Africa is by sea because of the freight and the giganormous fishing ships... And those who work on these ships are not the ones who are going to be the most careful with hygiene or are going to be the most worried because of a fever, a sniffle or a cough.

As it can be seen here : https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:43.9/centery:20.1/zoom:3

 

And on a ship the incubation has the time to...

 

Several countries are highly in danger too, among them the one the most vulnerable IMO is RDC (Congo) as the population and the institutions are already weakened a lot as they are already fighting (and mainly loosing) 3 outbreaks (Ebola, Measles and Cholera). Combine to that the structural weakness (political and financial corruption...).

[Guest]

Italy update:

20 cases

1 dead (78yo retired masson) in Venetia Region.

 

He is the 1st European who dies because of CoVid-19

[Canoe]

23 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Italy update:

20 cases

1 dead (78yo retired masson) in Venetia Region.

 

He is the 1st European who dies because of CoVid-19

Ouch.

Seems like Italy is going to take off for a number of cases.

 

Not substantiated: saw a tweet that two trains were stopped by the police as it was thought there were two suspected cases on board them. Milan area?

[Canoe]

2 hours ago, Cora_Lie said:

And on a ship the incubation has the time to...

...

Combine to that the structural weakness (political and financial corruption...).

omg

so many ways those can play out

 

Back around Jan 21st when more started to get out, researchers were mulling "world changing event". I'm thinking that again.

 

And disease riddled ghost ships again...

[PhantomJaguarr]

My State is going wonkers at this point. Ffs.

 

A federal court blocked efforts Friday night to transfer dozens of patients who tested positive for the coronavirus from Travis Air Force Base in Northern California to an empty building in Southern California.

 

“Our top priority is the safety and security of this community and those who live in this region,” Costa Mesa Mayor Katrina Foley said in a statement. “We have received no information regarding how the facility will be prepared, what precautions will be taken to protect those in the facility as well as those who live nearby, and other important planning measures.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/federal-judge-blocks-effort-transfer-coronavirus-patients-california-city-n1140786

 

Read this after I learned Sacramento County confirmed their first Covid-19 case.

 

 

[Canoe]

Another piece of the puzzle...

Quote

A 70-year-old man in China’s Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms until 27 days later, the local government said on Saturday, meaning the virus’ incubation period could be much longer than the presumed 14 days.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-incubation-idUKKCN20G072

 

***

 

omg

South Korea now reporting 346 Confirmed cases of Covid-19.
Waiting test results on 5,481.

Quote

 

• 190 additional cases are confirmed, which brings the total number of confirmed cases to 346.
• 327 confirmed cases are currently in isolation, 13,794 turned out to be negative, and 5,481 are being tested. The 25th case will be released from isolation today.
• Out of 190 newly confirmed cases, 84 and 92 are linked with Shincheonji Church of Jesus (Religious sect) and Cheongdo Daenam Hospital respectively; 14 are currently under investigation.
• 169 of the total number of confirmed cases (48.8%) fall into Shinchoenji cluster and 108 (31.2%) into Cheongdo Daenam Hospital cluster.

 

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030&act=view&list_no=366299&tag=&nPage=1

 

+87, for 433

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mr moose]

Another vaccine goes to animals trials.  here's hoping:

 

https://www.watoday.com.au/national/australian-coronavirus-vaccine-goes-into-test-production-20200221-p5436l.html?fbclid=IwAR2Izswe5JNBAPfzhjf8m63cUjrj2rMzf5--tNw2wblKx1YnLaqDbh2CV3Q

[Guest]

I'm just wondering about something for some time now...

 

Timeline:

End November 2019 --> 1st cases of CoVid-19 in the Hubei region

3rd week of December 2019 --> 4 sick from the market in Wuhan

4th week of December 2019  --> 20+ infected in Wuhan

January 2020 --> CoVid-19 Flares up in Wuhan but it's already too late and it has disseminated in whole of China and among the tourists.

 

When you look at the timeine on the Diamond Princess, it's the same thing...

1 person diagnosed 1 one week AFTER it returned home

later we learn that an employee MIGHT be Patient 0 for Diamond Princess eother in HK or Macao (frankly it can also be a tourist who when to visit either cities)

then it's 6 infected, then 18, it flares to 60 and after that... Even these numbers are not certain because... among the 3700 passengers only 500+ have been tested...

 

BUT the things we know now:

even when asymptomatic you happily share the little buggers.

the buggers survive for up to 9 days on surface.

we don't know how it spreads (contact, droplets, surface, etc.)

once you've recovered you still have the buggers

once recovered you can catch it again

even if tested negative, it doesn't mean you are not spreading the buggers.

Only the rectal swab for testing is "really" sure.

Now... It seems that the 14 days (2 weeks) incubation time is in fact 27 days (~4 weeks).

 

What the HELL does the word "Quarantine" means???

Quote

The word "quarantine" originates from the Venetian dialect form of the Italian quaranta giorni, meaning "forty days". This is due to the 40-day isolation of ships and people before entering the city-state of Ragusa (modern Dubrovnik in Croatia).^[11] This was practiced as a measure of disease prevention related to the Black Death.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarantine#History

FORTY DAYS!!!!!  Not 14! Not 20+!  40!!!!!!

 

At times it could be good to come back to the basics and respect some good ol'rules in certain matters. Especially when confronted to something new and unknown...

 

Economy is one thing... People unsatisfied to be isolated is also one thing...

But I think there are things which are more important than economy or unsatisfaction...

 

 

[PhantomJaguarr]

1 hour ago, Cora_Lie said:

FORTY DAYS!!!!!  Not 14! Not 20+!  40!!!!!!

Then my city’s in a questionable situation because they released nearly ALL the evacuees from China from Miramar after the 14 days. 
 

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/second-group-quarantined-at-mcas-miramar-for-coronavirus-precaution-to-be-released/2267819/

 
Not to mention all those released from the Diamond Princess into Japan also after the 14 day quarantine.

 

[Canoe]

1 hour ago, Cora_Lie said:

...

BUT the things we know now:

the buggers survive for up to 9 days on surface.

once you've recovered you still have the buggers

once recovered you can catch it again

Only the rectal swab for testing is "really" sure.

Now... It seems that the 14 days (2 weeks) incubation time is in fact 27 days (~4 weeks). ...

And of your list, those above still aren't fully nailed down. 

So many of the numbers are not only ranges, but very wide ranges. They don't even know what percentage of those infected are expected to fall where in the range. Although some studies are starting to get some indications, those efforts are hampered by less than ideal conditions when those Pt.s were treated, hence the numbers taken from their Pt. charts have questionable reliability.

 

That long lead-in time on the timeline is attributed to there needs to be enough spreading so there's enough cases that are not low/no symptom, so cases end up getting detected. Which is why they're so concerned that it may have been seeded far & wide, with most of those locations still in their long lead-in period. Like South Korea finally hitting the threshold of detectable cases. That's also why people are pissed that so many countries are only testing people for Covid if they have a traceable link back to China/Hubei/Wuhan. In the U.S., once the CDC gets those chosen labs actually testing for Covid, they'll have a much better chance of detecting it earlier, but then, only for those with enough symptoms to have samples collected and sent in... which as your post summarized, is a really inadequate measure given the way the disease presents.

 

All in your post: why a vaccine is so important.

[Canoe]

South Korea's KCDC press release showing 433 Comfirmed cases.

Their twitter is still saying 346.

 

CSSE dashboard is showing 50 62 cases in Italy. Italy bumps its way into the top list over Malaysia and passes Taiwan & Thailand.

 

 

 

 

Unrelated: Post-Brexit UK passports to be produced by French-Dutch company in Poland...

Edited February 22, 2020 by Canoe
update count, graph

[Canoe]

Italy's Servizio sanitario nazionale (SSN) is encouraging Pt.s to avoid clinical settings unless necessary. Doctors to receive guidance on Covid telephone triage. 

Covid-19, al via triage telefonico da parte dei medici di famiglia

http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1_1_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&p=dalministero&id=4084

Translated by google
 

Quote

Civil protection invites to go to the emergency room or to the health facilities and to call the emergency numbers only if strictly necessary. Citizen collaboration is critical to coping with the Coronavirus emergency.

In this regard, family doctors are also increasing their telephone availability.

"To avoid the possibility of multiplying the chances of contagion, we believe it is a duty for colleagues in general medicine to increase the availability of telephone calls to patients who have flu symptoms so as to avoid as much as possible that these same patients have to go personally to local studies or to health services such as PS and Continuity Care ". So even in the awareness of a surveillance network among the best in Europe, FIMMG and SIMG, respectively by voice of the general secretary Silvestro Scotti and the president Claudio Cricelli, field a security protocol dictated by reasons of prudence. The goal is clearly to minimize the opportunities for contact between patients presenting symptoms compatible with a suspicion of a respiratory disease of probable viral origin suggestive for Covid-19 by Coronavirus and other patients.

All general practitioners will be provided with a telephone triage card to be used to ask patients, suspected of being infected by Covid-19, questions with which to make a first diagnosis. The family doctor will always advise each further step to follow.

 

[Guest]

Italy : 1 more death! Total of 2 now.

It's a 77yo woman who died at her home, she wasn't diagnosed as sick but her husband and daughter are in quarantine in the region of Veneto. She was 77yo.

 

We know more now regaring the outbreak in Codogno (Milan county).

The husband and wife who are now sick and in hospital, had dinner with a friend who came back from China. THe Man is getting better and is not considered critical anymore

The outbreak in the hospital is due to the man going at the hospital and the people were infected in the emergency room and the hospital (nosocomial contamination).

259 people where added to the quarantine because of that...

 

Seems the outbreak from Veneto region  (where the 78yo died yesterday) spread to Southern Calabria, where a 26yo woman was diagnosed with a fever when coming back from Venice where she crossed paths with the 38yo man from Codogno.

 

Infection rate in Italy is 13%! Very far up from the "official" numbers from China... (<-- My opinion!)

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-italy/second-coronavirus-patient-dies-in-italy-ansa-news-agency-idUSKCN20G0CQ

 

 

[realpetertdm]

Guys I'm in south korea and I cannot fucking find masks

Everyone is sold out

[Canoe]

On 2/23/2020 at 4:36 AM, realpetertdm said:

Guys I'm in south korea and I cannot fucking find masks   Everyone is sold out

Youtube had some DIY mask videos. I didn't check their accuracy.

Also, check your KCDC and the U.S. CDC if they have any instructions. Other countries too.

Worst case, cotton bandana, worn a la U.S. Wild West stage coach robbers. Described early in this thread.

 

***

 

Graphs for Feb 22.

CSSE data was an extremely close match to the CNHC data.

 

As Suspected in China drops, the projected Deaths adjusts.

 

 

***

 

 

I dropped Recovered from this chart, as the number was getting so high it was ruining the resolution for the lower values.

 

***

 

Iran nudges out Taiwan on the top list.

 

 

***

 

On 2/23/2020 at 4:36 AM, realpetertdm said:

Guys I'm in south korea and I cannot fucking find masks Everyone is sold out

On 2/23/2020 at 7:25 AM, Canoe said:

...Worst case, cotton bandana, worn a la U.S. Wild West stage coach robbers. Described early in this thread.

On Feb 1, page 12 with my browser.

https://linustechtips.com/main/topic/1149427-corona-virus/?do=findComment&comment=13263695

 

[Guest]

Iran: 8 deaths - "officially" 43 cases

Quote

Just days ago, Iran said it was untouched by the virus, and the sudden increase in cases has raised concerns that it may be experiencing a significant outbreak. Iran’s health ministry said Saturday that 43 people had tested positive, with eight deaths, state-run Press TV reported.

Experts have said that based on the number of dead, the total number of cases is probably much higher, as Covid-19 appears to kill about one out of 50 people infected.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/23/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html#link-1de1139e

South Korea: 5 deaths - 600+ cases

Italy: 132 cases

 

The conclusion of the article cited above:

Quote

The almost random nature of new reports and new deaths is an indication the virus is moving much faster than countries are reporting to the W.H.O., Dr. Osterholm said.

“How many of these clusters and travel cases and prison outbreaks do we have to see before we realize that we’re just seeing the tip of the iceberg?” he said. “Testing is just getting set up around the world. There’s barely any in Africa right now. Even in the U.S., we’re testing travel cases — but we’re not testing in any meaningful way that will pick up cases that we didn’t suspect were there.”

 

[Canoe]

Quote

• Israel announced a ban on the entry of South Koreans and Japanese due to the spread of the virus.
• The Health Ministry website briefly said that Israel would be totally closing its borders to foreign nationals, but then deleted the message late Saturday night.
• On Saturday night, Israel did not allow 130 South Koreans to disembark from flight KE957 from Seoul that had landed at Ben-Gurion Airport. Twelve Israelis were allowed off the plane and transported home in Magen David Adom ambulances. The plane was then sent back to Seoul.
• The Airports Authority announced Sunday that it made arrangements for the South Korean passengers who were unable to depart on Saturday night’s flight back to their country. According to the authority, passengers departed on commercial flights with foreign airlines that had connections through third countries.
• ... confirmation that nine South Korean nationals tested positive for the virus after returning from Israel earlier this month.
• An additional 1,000 tourists from South Korea currently traveling in Israel have been instructed to avoid public places, and instead remain in isolation in their hotels.

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/South-Koreans-refused-entry-to-Israel-over-coronavirus-fears-618419

 

In Italy,

- The man at the center of the main Lombardy cluster run a marathon on the 2nd of Feb

- The Turinese case participated & is now infected

 

***

 

Over 1300 cases outside of Mainland China.