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corona virus

Letgomyleghoe
By Letgomyleghoe
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Go to solution Solved by Letgomyleghoe,

ATTENTION: there is a covid 19 F@H event happening, you can find it HERE.

 

this is a good opportunity to help with research!

SansVarnic
Message added by SansVarnic

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Posted
1 hour ago, Canoe said:

Did you just give me more homework?

......yes. You seem to be on top of everything. Just helping out.

 

 

 

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Canoe said:

Did you just give me more homework?

 

p.s.

That public database is an amazing collection of information. I'm surprised more people don't check it out before travelling.

It is also updated almost every day in various categories. They usually update at 10:00pm Central Arizona Time every night to some degree.

 

 

 

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, FakeCIA said:

......yes. You seem to be on top of everything. Just helping out.

It's an illusion. I'm just chasing numbers. With the multiple paths that the counts get released (official dashboards vs. the latest interview with an official or minister (and who has the latest), and then their tweets...), it's very common that the various paths do not match on their leading edge. Once we roll over into the next day, then the prior day looks good, but there are still some catch up numbers. AND, the numbers are all Detections, not onset and not the real infection rate.

 

The noise is interesting. From the weekend to now, the noise from researchers has gone way down. Perhaps they're busy researching now. And the counts from various sources have gone way down in frequency; I'm thinking that's intentional to still repeated reports sowing panic.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, FakeCIA said:

It is also updated almost every day in various categories. They usually update at 10:00pm Central Arizona Time every night to some degree.

Did not know that. Thank you!

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Canoe said:

and not the real infection rate

?

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Posted

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/fields/341.html#AF

 

The current age structure of each country. The coronavirus appears to be affecting those with already compromised immune systems and the older portion of the population.

 

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/fields/350.html#US

 

Also, major urban areas based on population.

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
On 2/27/2020 at 1:35 AM, Canoe said:

... AND, the numbers are all Detections, not onset and not the real infection rate. ...

As in, even if the numbers are accurate, they're not the real infection rate. Just the best they have based on Detections. 

 

That's why various studies are doing what they can to look back and determine when each early case had its Onset and then Detection, and follow the course of the disease, and try and find all transmitted contacts. When they have the genome of a case, then the chain of infection becomes much clearer. The studies I've seen are all early. But these require records and samples. And once it was recognized that Something Was Happening, the surge in case load shortly meant that record keeping was strained, to say the least. It's very much a puzzle for which it's assumed we'll never have all the pieces. The long lead-in had/has the researchers both puzzled and concerned. Now with more documented cases with long incubation periods (assumed contagious) up to 27 days (29?), some of that lead-in is tentatively explained, but no percentage numbers yet. That's part of what makes the Diamond Princess's Confirmed having half of them as asymptomatic rather interesting. One thing that turned up, is some human-to-human transmission occurring ahead of what later appears to present as zoonotic transmission attributed to the Wuhan Wet Market, which occurred hand-in-hand with human-to-human transmission.

 

***

 

On 2/27/2020 at 1:40 AM, FakeCIA said:

... The coronavirus appears to be affecting those with already compromised immune systems and the older portion of the population.

Largely, but with a number of exceptions becoming Severe and even Fatal.

It's too soon to know how many of those may turn out to have an undetected prior condition.

My guess is that the Italian data set will be the most valuable. But I note the influence had on their tourist market.

Edited by Canoe
add assumed contagious
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Posted
1 hour ago, Canoe said:

 

I'm sure a large number of people here could help you get data together if you asked. I'm able to pick out details for you from the World Factbook or whatever other public sources I'm able to get a hold of.

 

 

 

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, FakeCIA said:

I'm sure a large number of people here could help you get data together if you asked...

Not much point really. We' not accumulating info for research. Just reporting on and musing upon what we find.

 

 

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Posted

First US case of unknown origin is in my neighborhood.

 

https://amp.sacbee.com/news/california/article240674471.html

 

Wonder how many people already have it but don't know. Wonder how long until I get it.

Before you reply to my post, REFRESH. 99.99% chance I edited my post. 

 

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Posted
28 minutes ago, Mister Woof said:

First US case of unknown origin is in my neighborhood.

https://amp.sacbee.com/news/california/article240674471.html

Wonder how many people already have it but don't know. Wonder how long until I get it.

We'll start finding out once the CDC gets working test kits distributed to labs. But that's only for those that present with severe enough flu symptoms that their doctor takes a sample and forwards it to one of the five designated labs. More and more calls to allow for - free - COVID-19 screening tests upon any doctor's discretion, not just for those who have a link to China/Hubei/Wuhan. 

 

Waaay to early to speculate on when "you'll" get it. Technically, although unlikely, you may have had it already. Most present with mild or no symptoms. Follow the usual flu prevention advice, and check the CDC site for improved prevention suggestions.

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Posted (edited)

Saw my president’s conference about the virus today. At least he says the response to the virus should be political.

Edited by PhantomJaguar77

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Posted

H___ S___!!!

1,595

Yesterday was 977

 

image.thumb.png.0dc0e18a472167b3697e268a2c30a99b.png

Guess there's more of the reason the joint exercise got cancelled/postponed. Not a time for "sharing".

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Posted
3 minutes ago, PhantomJaguar77 said:

 

 


 

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/new-case-of-novel-coronavirus-in-northern-california-cdc/2242792/
 

So it begins. For my state.

 

Im in the elk grove area? you?

Before you reply to my post, REFRESH. 99.99% chance I edited my post. 

 

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Posted
Just now, Mister Woof said:

 

Im in the elk grove area? you?

Srry edited my post because you already posted it. I’m in San Diego county.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Canoe said:

H___ S___!!!

1,595

Yesterday was 977

 

image.thumb.png.0dc0e18a472167b3697e268a2c30a99b.png

I told you it would follow the same pattern as the DP...

China was waaaaaaaay underestimated...

 

Edited to add:

Sometimes I know what I'm talking about, even if I can't say how I know about it... *sigh*

Edited by Guest
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Posted

In surprise news, Bigfoot have been seen leaving the coastal mountains heading east, as people head into the hills crowding their usual territories.

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Posted
Just now, Cora_Lie said:

I told you it would follow the same pattern as the DP...

China was waaaaaaaay underestimated,,,

Won't be the same. DP was the crowding of infected with the uninfected, with that population served by the increasingly infected.

South Korea presents like delayed detections.

This is likely related to the huge step up in testing the 200K+ members of that church.

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Posted
Just now, Canoe said:

Won't be the same. DP was the crowding of infected with the uninfected, with that population served by the increasingly infected.

South Korea presents like delayed detections.

DP rate fell dramatically, as people were removed from those conditions.

Huge numbers to intervene with in South Korea. Can it be done?

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Won't be the same. DP was the crowding of infected with the uninfected, with that population served by the increasingly infected.

South Korea presents like delayed detections.

This is likely related to the huge step up in testing the 200K+ members of that church.

Look at all the "delayed detections" on DP...

Let me just remind you that there were 3700 passengers + the crew. Remind me again how many were tested?

How many were released without being tested?

How many presented mild symptoms?

How many presented symptoms more than a week after being released?

How many among those were asymptomatic but happily shared their buggers around?

 

*sigh*

 

edited to add:

Same...  The core cluster in Korea was theChristian Sect who got infected by one of their members who came back from China.

Just for them to become contagious and share their buggers and for the head of the sect to delay on sharing the name of the members of the sect.

And there you are! You have a new cluster!

 

Edited by Guest
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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Cora_Lie said:

Look at all the "delayed deterctions" on DP...

Let me just remind you that there were 3700 passengers + the crew. Remind me again how many were tested?

How many were released without being tested?

How many presented mild symptoms?

How many presented symptoms more than a week after being released?

How many among those were asymptomatic but happily shared their buggers around?

 

*sigh*

Well, I posted the graph of the partial tests recently.

Get the numbers and show how bad it was.

 

If you get the rest of the tested vs confirmed vs asymptomatic numbers, I can add those to the graph.

Edited by Canoe
get rest of numbers
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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Canoe said:

Well, I posted the graph of the partial tests recently.

Get the numbers and show how bad it was.

Here we go again... Same old, same old...

 

edited to add:

I understand the need of numbers and to feel reassured by their sheer nature, but data is not all numbers.

Ok... I stop for tonight.

Edited by Guest
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Posted

Italy showing 453 Confirmed from CSSE.

Germany 27

France still at 18

 

***

 

467330820_Covid-19TOP2020-02-26lateevening.thumb.png.e0181b6523a6ffe67b49cadb48582d22.png898555776_Covid-19TOP2020-02-26plusDPlateevening.thumb.png.f9609f7760ab7609356f5384a5d7b200.png

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Posted

Just curious as how you would prepare for Covid19 if your government said to prepare for it?

Would you stock up on OTC cold/flu medication?

Water?

Just kinda taking a census here.

Forgive me El Guapo. I know that I, Jefe, do not have your superior intellect and education...

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