NANDpocalypse - 6 Exabytes lost

[Lady Fitzgerald]

1 hour ago, 79wjd said:

One word:

 

Insurance

That's not always practical. Premiums are based on risk and cost of possible payouts. Often, insurance is just too expensive.

[Delicieuxz]

11 hours ago, TechyBen said:

I'd rather lose a friend, than risk watching someone defend their choice not to learn. I hope Delicieuxz would look into a situation, when someone asks "can you back that up?" and not take such a request as an offense, when it was a statement asking them to learn.

I appreciate the efforts to get to the core of the matter, but I still don't agree with what you're saying.

 

It's for a person to back up what they claim, not what they don't claim. Regarding whether the fab plant has functioning backup power, there was nothing for me to back up because I wasn't claiming that the company had power backup as a fact. If a person researches and brings confirmation of a claim they didn't previously make, that isn't a case of them backing up what they had previously said.

 

I already knew I couldn't back up my presumption, which is why I phrased it as a supposition. And so a proposal to realize that I was suggesting something apart from knowing, which is the only proposal I see in "can you back that up?", is redundant to the supposition, itself.

 

On 7/1/2019 at 4:51 AM, TechyBen said:

Doubling down on it, instead of saying "I made an assumption based on no information", kind of is strange.

I did say I made an assumption based on no specific information: That's what a supposition is, and I have repeatedly said what I wrote was a supposition, and it was phrased as a supposition from the start.

 

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Confirming you made an assumption based on no information, and that it correctly was an assumption based on no information, is a strange response when people ask "why not back that up instead of making an assumption based on no information?"

If a person can back up their own supposition, then the supposition mechanism is useless to employ in the first place. Making a supposition while knowing the factual conclusion to its proposition would be disingenuous expression.

 

Asking a person to back up what they're expressing they don't have the necessary information to verify is ignoring or missing what the person making the supposition has actually said in their expression. 'I can't back this up' is a part of a supposition's premise.

 

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Yes, you were not clear on exactly if you were asking a question or making a statement (it's a double meaning word!)

As the definition and examples show, a supposition is an assertion made as a proposition of theory or for the sake of argument. It's not necessarily a straight question or statement of fact, but can contain elements of both yet be not entirely committed to either.

 

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and we were not entirely clear on if we were asking you to back up a supposition, or to go and stop making suppositions, and learn something about the situation.

I don't think the situation was either. What I wrote was clearly not interpreted as being a supposition, and therefore its character as a supposition wasn't taken into account in the response that was given to me.

 

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So, after all that, are we to continue to defend the right to make suppositions, or understand that progressing from a supposition to a bit of extra knowledge is better? A supposition is great, only if used to then find out where to start learning.

Suppositions are made for the sake of stating one's impression as an opportunity for it to be responded to in a manner that either corroborates or corrects that standpoint. I never argued against learning more about the subject and I marked leadeater's comment on the topic as informative as soon as I read it. There was not resistance to correction or learning about the subject in what I wrote or after what I wrote.

 

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If we just post a supposition, on its own. Of what use or purpose was the post?

 

[edit]

PS, and the answer to all of those examples you gave, might be "surely you could back that up with facts?" and no one would argue against it. Those are all questions/statements, and all of them could require or be responded by someone asking "please provide proof/why do you think that?".

'Can you back that up?' is not a sensible response in many cases:

 

"Surely all this graphic talk of gastrointestinal distress is making you queasy."

 

"Can you back that up?"

 

Well, of course the person making the supposition couldn't back it up because they are not the person who either is or isn't experiencing the queasiness. The supposition made by saying "surely" was a proposition to hear if the expectation is true or not.

[TechyBen]

Less a "back up" and a "learn more". I can literally type "Surely Linus knows Intel is better than AMD", and that would be rather silly of me. It would be better for me to check if he does, if AMD vs Intel benchmarks/value has changed. etc.

 

Saying "Surely Linus knows Intel is better than AMD" is helpful to any discussion how?

Perhaps I'd be better wording it "Surely Linus knows Intel has vast cash reserves and can comeback easily against AMD?" (As NVidia possibly will... though I doubt Intel will be able to bounce back for a while!).

 

One is a statement with no foundation, meaning or information being given. A pure "wow" and nothing more. The other is asking based on a leverage of some information, some possible ideas.

[Trik'Stari]

I find myself wondering if I will ever be able to say "I have an exobyte of storage in my computer".

 

I remember my first PC had 6GB of storage. My PC in HS had 120GB and I thought it was the shit.

 

Now I look at my current PC and my accumulated 3.1tb of storage that's mostly full and think "fuck I need more.". I have only 1 drive that's above 500GB and that's a 1tb platter drive.

[Albal_156]

https://www.anandtech.com/show/14596/toshiba-western-digital-nand-production-partially-halted-by-power-outage

 

Well this is could be a short-term shock to the NAND market. Yokaichi Operations, the campus for Toshiba's and WD's NAND production (this is both 3D and 2D it seems) had a power outage on June 15th of just 13 minutes (shows the impact of mass production these days on supply of products) which stopped NAND production and obviously ruined the NAND going through the assembly line at the time. SSD's prices could go back up again as around 15EB has lost between Toshiba's estimated 9EB loss and WD's confirmed 6EB loss in their fabs in Japan. (I think thats what this article implies.)

Plus they haven't resumed production yet either so this will likely mean a shortage of NAND for these two companies or any of their suppliers. This represents a 6th of global NAND production but contract prices have already ben set for Q3 and maybe Q4, so prices shouldn't change immediately, but this could mean price increases much later which depends on many factors. In other words buy SSD's and memory now as prices may rise again in 2020.

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Toshiba Memory and Western Digital on Friday disclosed that an unexpected power outage in the Yokkaichi province in Japan on June 15 affected the manufacturing facilities that are jointly operated. Right now, production facilities are partially halted and they are expected to resume operations only by mid-July.

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Western Digital says that the 13-minute power outage impacted wafers that were processed, the facilities, and production equipment. The company indicates that the incident will reduce its NAND flash wafer supply in Q3 by approximately 6 EB (exabytes), which is believed to be about a half of the company’s quarterly supply of NAND. Toshiba does not disclose the impact the outage will have on its NAND wafer supply in the coming months, but confirms that the fabs are partially suspended at the moment. Keeping in mind that Toshiba generally uses more capacity of the fabs than WD, the impact on its supply could be significantly higher than 6 EB with some estimating that it could be as high as ~9 EB.

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Considering that the Yokkaichi Operations produces at least 1/3 of the global NAND flash output (let’s assume that dollar share more or less corresponds to bit share) and half of its production for the quarter was lost because of the incident, this means that the industry will miss approximately 1/6 (or 16.5%) of the global NAND supply in Q3. Whether or not this will create a deficit on the market that will cause significant price hikes depends on multiple factors and is something that remains to be seen.

 

[Tamesh16]

Well i got a 970 evo plus at 12% off the other day, so i am quite content for now 

[aisle9]

And there's the good ol' manufactured crisis because the major fab houses have decided that NAND prices are too low. Good to see that collusion in RAM manufacturing is alive and well.

[jiyeon]

I think this news has already been posted, although it was a week and a bit ago:
 

 

[Dabombinable]

I've got my SX8200, so I'm happy.

[Albal_156]

4 minutes ago, Dabombinable said:

I've got my SX8200, so I'm happy.

Me too actually.

[Albal_156]

 

8 minutes ago, seoz said:

I think this news has already been posted, although it was a week and a bit ago:
 

 

Oh really I didn't see it.

[Albal_156]

I'll delete my topic apologies.

[Guest]

Somebody always trips over a power cord when prices get too low.

[Albal_156]

Well Im not sure I can delete this sadly. Moderators feel free to get rid of this.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Albal_156 said:

Well Im not sure I can delete this sadly. Moderators feel free to get rid of this.

Hit the little hazard symbol and report it. A mod will see it and act according to your request.

[Albal_156]

Thank youuu.

[Doobeedoo]

That's quite a loss sadly. Hopefully this doesn't affect prices much. I'm waiting to see Samsung Pro NVMe SSD on PCIe 4.0