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Statistics Question

BuckGup
By BuckGup
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If something has a chance of occurring 1 out of 100 does that mean if the event happens 100 times it is going to happen. Or every time the event happens it’s 1/100 chance and doesn’t add?

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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No, it just means that every trial there is a 0.01 probability that the event will occur

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Key word here is chance.

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Let's simplify it to coin flips in a succession.

To get heads once in 1 flip is 50% (.5).

To get heads once in 2 flips it is 75% chance, not 100%

For 3 flips it's 87.5%, 4 it's 93.75% and so on. But it will never be 100% chance.

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Why is this in tech news is the bigger question. 

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1/100 means that for every trial you do, you’ll have a 1% chance of the incident occurring. That’s on a theoretical average though. You could be super lucky and get 10/100 or 100/100. The problem lies on the fact that statistics will only show how often an event  will occur and if it correlates to another factor. Probability will tell you when it will occur and those guys are crazy!

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It depends on whether subsequent tests are dependent or independent on the results of previous tests.

For example, flipping a coin and getting Heads will be a 1 in 2 chance each time you flip it, regardless of the outcome of the previous result.

However, if you are pulling a card from a deck of playing cards, the first card you draw has a 1 in 52 chance of being Ace of Hearts. If you repeat the test by removing a second card, you now have a 1 in 51 chance of it being a Ace of Hearts, and each time you draw a card your chances will improve until you have found the Ace of hearts.

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27 minutes ago, BuckGup said:

If something has a chance of occurring 1 out of 100 does that mean if the event happens 100 times it is going to happen. Or every time the event happens it’s 1/100 chance and doesn’t add?

When we say that we mean an average, it means if you repeated the test a large number of times. like a million times, on average you would get one occurance for every 100 event. Like others said, in smaller numbers of events like a few hundred, you could get either one occurance, two three or 10. 

 

using the coin flipping example, if you flip a coin 10 times, you probably wont get an even 50/50 heads/tails. But if you flip a coin many times (like a million times) the rate of heads/tails gets very close to 50/50

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9 hours ago, DrMacintosh said:

Why is this in tech news is the bigger question. 

Lol yeah I was tired as balls and didn't have my glasses on. It was meant to be in off topic

▓ƆԀ▓ S▓₱▓Ɇ▓c▓s▓: i7 6ʇɥפᴉƎ00K (4.4ghz), Asus DeLuxe X99A II, GT҉X҉1҉0҉8҉0 Zotac Amp ExTrꍟꎭe),Si6F4Gb D???????r PlatinUm, EVGA G2 Sǝʌǝᘉ5ᙣᙍᖇᓎᙎᗅᖶt, Phanteks Enthoo Primo, 3TB WD Black, 500gb 850 Evo, H100iGeeTeeX, Windows 10, K70 R̸̢̡̭͍͕̱̭̟̩̀̀̃́̃͒̈́̈́͑̑́̆͘͜ͅG̶̦̬͊́B̸͈̝̖͗̈́, G502, HyperX Cloud 2s, Asus MX34. פN∩SW∀S 960 EVO

Just keeping this here as a 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0 means impossible while 1 means inevitable. Anything in between is neither impossible nor inevitable but likely or less likely. 1 in hundred likelihood means one out of 100 you will be successful in one try and statistcial likely that you will have one successful outcome in 100 tries. 

 

I remember reading that type V civilization has the techonology for probability manipulation which means they can turn impossibility into inevitability at whim and pretty much force the entire universe to see things their way. Wouldn't that be awesome? It is god like power. 

Sudo make me a sandwich 

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Think about it this way: An event having a 1% probability means that there's a 99% probability it won't happen.

The probability of the event not happening in 100 tries is .99100, or ~36.6%, therefore there's a ~63.4% chance it will happen.

"Do as I say, not as I do."

-Because you actually care if it makes sense.

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