how accurate is this graphs ?

[BudgetBoy]

i dont know if i post it in the right thread but why oh why the ram prices are still high ? read in this graph

ram prices graph

https://pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/

 

while the gpu prices are going down ? whats there difference ?

gpu price graph

https://pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/video-card/

[LienusLateTips]

RAM prices are high due to a die shrink causing lower yields and them switching production to phone memory right before a surge in demand.

 

GPU prices are going down thanks to lower mining demand from serious crashes in Ethereum prices.

[dizmo]

18 minutes ago, JDE said:

RAM prices are high due to a die shrink causing lower yields and them switching production to phone memory right before a surge in demand.

 

GPU prices are going down thanks to lower mining demand from serious crashes in Ethereum prices.

Die shrinks would result in higher yields, not lower.

[Drak3]

Just now, dizmo said:

Die shrinks would result in higher yields, not lower.

Long term, yes. Short term, manufacture might require fine tuning to maximize post shrink yields.

[LienusLateTips]

7 minutes ago, dizmo said:

Die shrinks would result in higher yields, not lower.

*temporary short-term low yields before resulting in higher yields

[dizmo]

10 minutes ago, Drak3 said:

Long term, yes. Short term, manufacture might require fine tuning to maximize post shrink yields.

 

3 minutes ago, JDE said:

*temporary short-term low yields before resulting in higher yields

 

 

I somewhat doubt that it's worse than 30%, which is the yield increase Samsung is getting.

[mad dudy]

more things need memory these day so less to go around.

[GoldenLag]

4 hours ago, dizmo said:

 

 

 

I somewhat doubt that it's worse than 30%, which is the yield increase Samsung is getting.

Yields can drop quite a lot. a 30% yield drop from a process with maybe 95-98% yields is a lot. Since chip density is higher on the wafer the cost is slightly negated. Though i doubt they ramp up productions to full speed while they are still improving their technique.  

 

The reason say AMD is moving from 14nm(/12nm) to 7nm even though their yield isnt great on 7nm is that the small dies of their ccx`s means that the chip to wafer cost barely changes. 

 

here is a yield calculator: http://caly-technologies.com/en/die-yield-calculator/

[Guest]

In fact it's due to price fixing by the cartel that has a monopoly on RAM. The so called shortages are fake. Trendforce/DramXchange did an investigation on this and the companies admitted that they are no longer competing and are keeping supply low in order to keep prices high. That's classic price fixing, something that these companies have done repeatedly and been caught doing repeatedly but continue to do because the fines are smaller than the profit that they make. What surprises me is that people either don't know this or somehow genuinely believe that it's shortages, when they could look up this information in a couple of minutes. Basically you're being conned and that will continue until the EU or China take action, which China especially has threatened to do.

[tikker]

31 minutes ago, MariaA said:

In fact it's due to price fixing by the cartel that has a monopoly on RAM. The so called shortages are fake. Trendforce/DramXchange did an investigation on this and the companies admitted that they are no longer competing and are keeping supply low in order to keep prices high. That's classic price fixing, something that these companies have done repeatedly and been caught doing repeatedly but continue to do because the fines are smaller than the profit that they make. What surprises me is that people either don't know this or somehow genuinely believe that it's shortages, when they could look up this information in a couple of minutes. Basically you're being conned and that will continue until the EU or China take action, which China especially has threatened to do.

Source? Because in a couple of minutes I found at least two articles of Trendforce themselves that  acknowledge a genuine shortage:

https://press.trendforce.com/press/20161212-2711.html

https://press.trendforce.com/node/view/2614.html

[GoldenLag]

28 minutes ago, MariaA said:

In fact it's due to price fixing by the cartel that has a monopoly on RAM. The so called shortages are fake. Trendforce/DramXchange did an investigation on this and the companies admitted that they are no longer competing and are keeping supply low in order to keep prices high. That's classic price fixing, something that these companies have done repeatedly and been caught doing repeatedly but continue to do because the fines are smaller than the profit that they make. What surprises me is that people either don't know this or somehow genuinely believe that it's shortages, when they could look up this information in a couple of minutes. Basically you're being conned and that will continue until the EU or China take action, which China especially has threatened to do.

please link sources. as far as ive read. Samsung is getting a Fab online this year and Micron has inititating plans to get another fab online in the future. SK Hynix is finishing a fab that is expected to be dont late 2018 and probably online in early 2019. There is no doubt that they have benifited from the shortage, But the influx of cash have led to new fabs being planned, and that new fabs are getting online accoriding to sqedual. There is and have been a shortage. and new fabs are getting online to counter the demand. We shouldnt expect prices to drop to where they were, since the prices were genuinly low and margins were slim. Though once demand and production is met i think we can go from a chip that used to cost 80 dollars that today costs 180 to something like 110 dollars.

 

Sources: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20171030005517/en/TrendForce-Samsung-Increase-Competition-DRAM-Market-Year

https://epsnews.com/2017/11/07/samsung-end-tight-dram-supply-earlier-expected/

[mr moose]

1 minute ago, GoldenLag said:

please link sources. as far as ive read. Samsung is getting a Fab online this year and Micron has inititating plans to get another fab online in the future. SK Hynix is finishing a fab that is expected to be dont late 2018 and probably online in early 2019. There is no doubt that they have benifited from the shortage, But the influx of cash have led to new fabs being planned, and that new fabs are getting online accoriding to sqedual. There is and have been a shortage. and new fabs are getting online to counter the demand. We shouldnt expect prices to drop to where they were, since the prices were genuinly low and margins were slim. Though once demand and production is met i think we can go from a chip that used to cost 80 dollars that today costs 180 to something like 110 dollars.

 

Sources: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20171030005517/en/TrendForce-Samsung-Increase-Competition-DRAM-Market-Year

https://epsnews.com/2017/11/07/samsung-end-tight-dram-supply-earlier-expected/

And you won't see them spending billions on new fabs because of an artificial shortage. 

[GoldenLag]

3 minutes ago, mr moose said:

And you won't see them spending billions on new fabs because of an artificial shortage. 

not directly no, but if the shortage is real (as it seems at this point)  someone will attempt to step in to gain market dominance

 

Quote

Nonetheless, SK Hynix and Micron are now flushed with cash after benefiting from several quarters of rising prices, and they are also in a great position to improve their competitiveness. SK Hynix is now transitioning to the 18nm node and will be building its second fab in the Chinese city of Wuxi next year. Meanwhile, with the cash and resources at hand, SK Hynix will be able to proceed with its plans smoothly and on schedule. As for Micron, its rising stock price has given the company an opportunity to pursue capital increase by cash. This signals that Micron is preparing to build new fabs, expand production capacity or upgrade its manufacturing technology

from: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20171030005517/en/TrendForce-Samsung-Increase-Competition-DRAM-Market-Year

If there wasnt a demand, i wouldnt expect Hynix to hurrying to get another fab online, an improvement in processing node would be likely though

[BudgetBoy]

i wonder when is the ram prices will go down ?

[LienusLateTips]

3 hours ago, MariaA said:

In fact it's due to price fixing by the cartel that has a monopoly on RAM. The so called shortages are fake. Trendforce/DramXchange did an investigation on this and the companies admitted that they are no longer competing and are keeping supply low in order to keep prices high. That's classic price fixing, something that these companies have done repeatedly and been caught doing repeatedly but continue to do because the fines are smaller than the profit that they make. What surprises me is that people either don't know this or somehow genuinely believe that it's shortages, when they could look up this information in a couple of minutes. Basically you're being conned and that will continue until the EU or China take action, which China especially has threatened to do.

I don't think Samsung, Hynix and Micron would be building fabs to increase production to lower prices if they were price fixing.

 

Source?

[LienusLateTips]

1 minute ago, BudgetBoy said:

i wonder when is the ram prices will go down ?

2019-2020, probably

[XenosTech]

why does this thread feel like deja vu ?

[LogicalDrm]

5 hours ago, JDE said:

2019-2020, probably

If we are lucky. But considering how long it takes to get even smaller and, shall we say easier, operations running smoothly, I think 2025 could be better.

[BudgetBoy]

15 hours ago, MariaA said:

In fact it's due to price fixing by the cartel that has a monopoly on RAM. The so called shortages are fake. Trendforce/DramXchange did an investigation on this and the companies admitted that they are no longer competing and are keeping supply low in order to keep prices high. That's classic price fixing, something that these companies have done repeatedly and been caught doing repeatedly but continue to do because the fines are smaller than the profit that they make. What surprises me is that people either don't know this or somehow genuinely believe that it's shortages, when they could look up this information in a couple of minutes. Basically you're being conned and that will continue until the EU or China take action, which China especially has threatened to do.

i guess there isnt monopoly because there are so many RAM manufacturers even the chinese one . however i guess the people would monopoly there business due to what we called "favorite" . ex : samsung is the famous one (they sell there wafers to kingston corsair etc) i dont know about the others .

[Guest]

On 4/5/2018 at 6:51 PM, BudgetBoy said:

i guess there isnt monopoly because there are so many RAM manufacturers even the chinese one . however i guess the people would monopoly there business due to what we called "favorite" . ex : samsung is the famous one (they sell there wafers to kingston corsair etc) i dont know about the others .

There are only three main RAM manufacturers in fact - Samsung, Hynix and Micron. China isn't yet producing RAM.

[Guest]

On 4/5/2018 at 6:06 AM, JDE said:

I don't think Samsung, Hynix and Micron would be building fabs to increase production to lower prices if they were price fixing.

 

Source?

I've already told you, go find the DramXchange/Trendforce investigation articles. Also, the fact that the RAM manufacturers have done this over and over again, and been caught over and over again is well documented. Go look it up. Also, there aren't new fabs coming online. Hynix has been clear that in fact they are expanding existing fabs, not building new ones at all, and that's mostly for NAND Flash, not RAM so much. And they've been saying this for about a year and a half now and yet prices have still risen. The fact that the cartel has admitted that they no longer compete means that there will be no competition (sad that I have to explain that) and therefore no significant price drops. 

http://www.simmtester.com/page/news/shownews.asp?num=19640

[Guest]

On 4/5/2018 at 3:39 AM, GoldenLag said:

not directly no, but if the shortage is real (as it seems at this point)  someone will attempt to step in to gain market dominance

 

from: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20171030005517/en/TrendForce-Samsung-Increase-Competition-DRAM-Market-Year

If there wasnt a demand, i wouldnt expect Hynix to hurrying to get another fab online, an improvement in processing node would be likely though

Except that they aren't increasing RAM capacity so much as increasing NAND production and are expanding existing fabs more than building new ones. So no, no change to the price fixing agreement in place and no significant price drops in the foreseeable future. The cartel have been making the same claims about increasing production for a year and a half now and did the same in the past, just before they were caught, yet again, price fixing. If you believe them this time, despite all of the evidence and the simple, checkable fact that they have been caught doing this over and over again, then I have a bridge to sell you:

http://www.simmtester.com/page/news/shownews.asp?num=19640

[Guest]

On 4/5/2018 at 3:26 AM, tikker said:

Source? Because in a couple of minutes I found at least two articles of Trendforce themselves that  acknowledge a genuine shortage:

https://press.trendforce.com/press/20161212-2711.html

https://press.trendforce.com/node/view/2614.html

 

 

Good for you, except, in future, try reading the articles first, which are over a year and a half old (and yet still no price reductions...what a surprise). They're concerned with NAND and mobile DRAM rather than PC DRAM. Nice try though. If you're still in denial that the cartel are doing what they have done before repeatedly, look up what Avril Wu from Trendforce has to say about it:

"The recent DRAM price upswing reflects the current oligopoly – the top three suppliers achieve profits while slowing down China’s foray into the market...At the same time, changes have occurred in the relationship among the top three suppliers – Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung,” Wu added. “Based on the oligopolistic market situation, the trio have opted for co-existence as the best way to maximize their own profitability. They therefore are turning away from aggressively competing for market share through price reduction and capacity expansion."

Avril Wu by the way is the same analyst you just linked to and that, by definition, is classic price fixing.
 

[johnukguy]

MariaA is spot on, as anyone who's done even basic research into this knows. Not only have the RAM cartel been claiming that they'll increase production for several years now, they've used the same excuses, the same promises and lied, again and again for years. If they were really going to increase DRAM production, they would have done it by now and they haven't. The shortages are indeed largely fake and the cartel have openly admitted that they no longer seek to compete with one another.

The only bright spots at the moment are that the EU and China are preparing to investigate the cartel for price fixing (again) and, partly as a result of that, mobile DRAM pricing is now seeing a slight fall. If the EU and China go ahead, then you'll be amazed at how fast RAM prices will drop, just as they did in the past. I'm constantly surprised that so many people don't seem to even know, or don't bother to find out, that this exact same thing, with the exact same excuses about 'shortages' have happened again and again in the past and that the cartel has been caught flat out lying and price fixing over and over again. I guess if people really believe these excuses, then I too have a bridge to sell them.

https://gizmodo.com/5544505/samsung-led-cartel-fined-404-million-in-price-fixing-scandal

https://www.geek.com/chips/eu-fines-nine-chip-makers-for-dram-price-fixing-1252231/

https://www.techpowerup.com/240042/china-regulator-to-look-into-possible-dram-nand-price-fixing-by-manufacturers

http://darrellx.com/buildapc/price-fixing-collusion/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-samsung-elec-chips-outlook-analysis/end-of-a-chip-boom-memory-chip-price-drop-spooks-investors-idUSKBN1F406U
 

 

[johnukguy]

On 4/5/2018 at 3:39 AM, GoldenLag said:

not directly no, but if the shortage is real (as it seems at this point)  someone will attempt to step in to gain market dominance

 

from: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20171030005517/en/TrendForce-Samsung-Increase-Competition-DRAM-Market-Year

If there wasnt a demand, i wouldnt expect Hynix to hurrying to get another fab online, an improvement in processing node would be likely though

In fact DRAM capacity growth is just about at a historic low as the cartel have confirmed that they won't be competing and won't be increasing PC DRAM capacity significantly at all. That whole article is only a series of guesses and what ifs, not a confirmation that any of the cartel are increasing DRAM production, which they're not. Not a single one of the three cartel members has said that they will actually increase DRAM production in the near future. They have said that they will increase NAND production but that's irrelevant to PC DRAM prices by and large. Also the mobile DRAM market is slowing, so even there the cartel are looking to reduce investment and cut production, not increase it:

"The “mobile is sucking up all the DRAM,” argument, in other words, seems weak. Apple is slashing its iPhone X production targets. Smartphone companies are unhappy with spikes in DRAM pricing and the way those spikes have bitten into their own profits. And DRAMexchange is reporting memory capacity growth is expected to be at a near-historic low of 19.6 percent in 2018, as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are all cutting back on capital investments."

https://www.extremetech.com/computing/263031-ram-prices-roof-stuck-way