Windows 10 now actually losing market share

[Delicieuxz]

Windows 10 now actually losing market share

 

Excerpt:

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In September though, according to NetMarketShare, Windows 10 didn’t just show slower growth, it actually went into reverse gear and lost usage share. Yes, you read that right.

 

According to the figures, Windows 10 went from 22.99 percent globally, to 22.53 percent, a drop of 0.46 percentage points. It’s important to remember that NetMarketShare measures usage (people actually using the operating system, rather than having it installed), and that isn’t a precise science. Even so, Windows 10 losing share is a big surprise. When Windows 8.x did it two years ago, it came after months of dwindling growth. Here, NetMarketShare is showing us a healthy growing operating system coming to a dramatic and sudden stop, and then actually rolling backwards a bit. Are the figures to be believed? Well, while it wouldn’t be the first time that NetMarketShare has released usage numbers and then revised them a few days later, rival usage share monitoring firm StatCounter has similar findings.

...

Returning to NetMarketShare’s figures, last month was a good one for Windows 7 which grew 1.02 percentage points to go from 47.25 percent to 48.27 percent.

 

Windows 8.1 dropped 0.09 percentage points, from 7.92 percent to 7.83 percent, and Windows 8 fell 0.04 percentage points from 1.82 percent to 1.78 percent. Combined, Windows 8.x dropped 0.13 percentage points and now has 9.61 percent of the market.

 

Windows XP brings up the rear and sits on 9.11 percent, having fallen 0.25 percentage points in September.

 

I've been confident that this is what would happen, that Windows 10 would begin to lose market share after the free period, while older Windows OSes resume increasing their market shares, and I've previously said so on these forums. But, I think the linked-to article misses the main causes of of Windows 10 losing usage market share, which I would say is the loss of control and reliability over previous Windows OSes, offensive in-OS advertising and data-collection, and also (IMO) a less convenient start-menu, as well as a flat and monocolour UI visual design which a large number of Windows users simply do not find pleasant.

 

With Microsoft's complete shift, under the new-ish management of Satya Nadella, from making user-friendly software, to making user-exploiting software, and with Microsoft completely reforming its revenue model to be based upon getting people to install their user-exploiting software so that users' generated data can be collected and monetized, there has got to be serious panic happening from Microsoft's management due to Windows 10's failure to be what most people want on their PCs.

 

The 1 billion Windows 10 installations goal that Microsoft was targeting is not going to come close to being reached, even with the millions of forced Windows 10 installations, with the vapid "best Windows yet" marketing, and even with Windows 10 having been offered to people for free, for the previous year. Further, because Windows 10 is not receiving anywhere near the number of used installations that Microsoft projected, for their new revenue model of data-monetization, having given away Windows 10 for a year is actually going to hurt Microsoft's profits, because:

 

a) The free giveaway was to bolster a data-monetization business model which depended upon everyone, or as many people as possible using Windows 10 daily to generate data for Microsoft to collect

b) The majority of current Windows 10 installations, which were gained for free, belong to the people who were most likely to have been willing to pay for Windows 10, if it were offered as regular retail

 

In my opinion, Microsoft approached the idea of Windows 10 thinking as if everybody's PCs and data were theirs to do whatever they wanted to. And that's just not true, and people recognized the many offences of the liberties Microsoft took, against end-users' own personal interest. I also think that Microsoft has made Windows 10 into a for-Microsoft OS, that doesn't really benefit a home user in any way, and works against a home user, rather than be an OS that is for the home user, and works for the home user.

 

I've written in some detail about what how I find this to be the case with Windows 10, and why I find Windows 10 to be an inferior Windows OS compared with previous Windows OSes, in this blog post:

I think it will be interesting to see what Microsoft does in the coming year, to fix their business model. I hope that things won't get worse from here on out, although we saw for the previous year just how desperate and forceful Microsoft is willing to act, to get what it wants. I hope that Microsoft will repent from its offensive actions, and not double-down on them during what must be a very desperate time for Microsoft management due to their poor business planning and their failure to make Windows 10 serve the user first, rather than Microsoft.

 

 

It can be seen that Microsoft Edge's own market share is on the decline, to coincide with and corroborate Windows 10's market share decline:

[rattacko123]

Windows 8.1 is the best IMO, the only good thing about windows 10 is the virtual desktops thing and the universal apps

[blackadder]

i bet this has a correlation to apple sales.  

[nobelharvards]

Microsoft tried to be Google, but pulled it off with less tact and everyone ended up hating it.

 

Google is like the cool kid in class. He's not perfect, and he may have a shady record, but his charm keeps everyone liking him.

 

Microsoft is the fat kid who tries to be the cool kid and ends up tripping over his own shoe laces.

[PaintChips]

10 minutes ago, blackadder said:

i bet this has a correlation to apple sales.  

Doubtful of being tied to Apple sales, most of my friends are using Android or Ubuntu-friendly tablets than buying Windows leaning hardware but again everybody in my age group who grew up with Microsoft anti-trust issues in crushing Netscape isn't forgivable--30+ crowd may have some leanings towards Apple but we're more willing to use Linux and ChromeOS to maintain a sense of "competition". My mum who uses Windows & MacOS also got a Chromebook around the time of Win10 because she doesn't trust Microsoft... ChromeOS syncs with her Nexus which is a plus, Microsoft's OneDrive sync randomly breaks on each Win10 update.

 

Even though I've owned more Macs pre-Windows 10, on my new PC builds I've stuck to using Debian or CentOS(Red Hat) then used any spare Win7 license to activate the free Win10 upgrade but rolled back to Win7. 

On an older Core 2 Quad I rolled back to Win8.1 as Win10 had an annoying issue of each OS update made all the stock Microsoft "Metro Apps" run in the background again(when they were disabled previously), if I'm going to deal with Microsoft flooding my start button with tile ads/randomly downloaded partner apps its just not worth it.

[Tataffe]

While I like Windows 10 a little more than Windows 7, they are both good operating systems for most people's needs. As mentioned before, I'd agree that this halt in market share growth is related to the end of the free upgrade period. I'd assume that Win10's market share will start growing again, because new PCs will be coming with it installed.

 

What bothers me most is the market share of Linux ...

[blackadder]

4 minutes ago, PaintChips said:

Doubtful of being tied to Apple sales, most of my friends are using Android or Ubuntu-friendly tablets than buying Windows leaning hardware but again everybody in my age group who grew up with Microsoft anti-trust issues in crushing Netscape isn't forgivable--30+ crowd may have some leanings towards Apple but we're more willing to use Linux and ChromeOS to maintain a sense of "competition". My mum who uses Windows & MacOS also got a Chromebook around the time of Win10 because she doesn't trust Microsoft... ChromeOS syncs with her Nexus which is a plus, Microsoft's OneDrive sync randomly breaks on each Win10 update.

 

Even though I've owned more Macs pre-Windows 10, on my new PC builds I've stuck to using Debian or CentOS(Red Hat) then used any spare Win7 license to activate the free Win10 upgrade but rolled back to Win7. 

On an older Core 2 Quad I rolled back to Win8.1 as Win10 had an annoying issue of each OS update made all the stock Microsoft "Metro Apps" run in the background again(when they were disabled previously), if I'm going to deal with Microsoft flooding my start button with tile ads/randomly downloaded partner apps its just not worth it.

something like schools and businesses changing sides can have a great effect as well. as well as doing in house os's made just for the program the pc is going to be used for. I don't think this decrease is anything to be concerned about for microsoft. 

[Prysin]

34 minutes ago, rattacko123 said:

Windows 8.1 is the best IMO, the only good thing about windows 10 is the virtual desktops thing and the universal apps

Virtual Desktops has been around in Windows since XP.... its just been amazingly cumbersome to set up.

[Prysin]

34 minutes ago, blackadder said:

i bet this has a correlation to apple sales.  

lol, you must be amazingly gullible if you think apple could sell 10m+ devices at 1200$+ within just a month or two. Trust me, the price of macs are the #1 prohibitor of their adoption. Not very many people can afford dropping 1200$+ into a craptop.

 

The whole study seems utterly flawed from beginning to end. Measuring USAGE vs install base means you have a bunch of people simply not USING their computer.

For those kind of numbers you should look to other social factors, such as large scale sporting events, start-up of new season of hyped TV series and so on. These are the only things that would make masses of people stop using a computer for a while.

[blackadder]

3 minutes ago, Prysin said:

lol, you must be amazingly gullible if you think apple could sell 10m+ devices at 1200$+ within just a month or two. Trust me, the price of macs are the #1 prohibitor of their adoption. Not very many people can afford dropping 1200$+ into a craptop.

 

The whole study seems utterly flawed from beginning to end. Measuring USAGE vs install base means you have a bunch of people simply not USING their computer.

For those kind of numbers you should look to other social factors, such as large scale sporting events, start-up of new season of hyped TV series and so on. These are the only things that would make masses of people stop using a computer for a while.

was thinking about a long term overall trend, apple was once almost broke they are doing pretty good now. people getting rid of old machines, there are heaps of things that can have a effect. never said it was the only contributing factor. plenty of people can afford a 1200 laptop, we aren't all kids.

[ThinkWithPortals]

50 minutes ago, rattacko123 said:

Windows 8.1 is the best IMO

Finally, someone else who shares my opinion

[Prysin]

13 minutes ago, blackadder said:

was thinking about a long term overall trend, apple was once almost broke they are doing pretty good now. people getting rid of old machines, there are heaps of things that can have a effect. never said it was the only contributing factor.

remember MS reported close to 400m devices having W10 installed. This means that 1% = 4m units has to change from Windows to Mac/Linux

4m x say 1k USD per device means that apple need to sell devices equal to 4 BILLION USD in a month...

 

I know apple is rich as fuck, but do you think 4 billion+ USD worth of mac devices being sold month over month would go unnoticed by the media? No, we would hear about such massive amounts of sales for sure. Apple wouldnt stay quiet about such numbers, nor would retailers. They would all talk of "massive interest for apple devices" and there would be product shortages several places. Whenever apple has product shortages, there is a public outrage from the apple fanbase.

 

THE ONLY system i can think of that can cause these kind of numbers, is the Chinese OS.... China is the only country with its own OS that has a large enough "customer base" to actuall shift global sales figures.

 

But even if that was true, we would see the media report on loss in MS sales in china, as china is an important market for them due to the explosive growth of per capita income and the increase in living standard.

 

 

i am more inclined to say its just a shitty survey, done in a really shitty way that is not representative of actual market saturation

[VerticalDiscussions]

But Windows 10 is so gud guys, cmaun.

[blackadder]

1 minute ago, Prysin said:

remember MS reported close to 400m devices having W10 installed. This means that 1% = 4m units has to change from Windows to Mac/Linux

4m x say 1k USD per device means that apple need to sell devices equal to 4 BILLION USD in a month...

 

I know apple is rich as fuck, but do you think 4 billion+ USD worth of mac devices being sold month over month would go unnoticed by the media? No, we would hear about such massive amounts of sales for sure. Apple wouldnt stay quiet about such numbers, nor would retailers. They would all talk of "massive interest for apple devices" and there would be product shortages several places. Whenever apple has product shortages, there is a public outrage from the apple fanbase.

 

THE ONLY system i can think of that can cause these kind of numbers, is the Chinese OS.... China is the only country with its own OS that has a large enough "customer base" to actuall shift global sales figures.

 

But even if that was true, we would see the media report on loss in MS sales in china, as china is an important market for them due to the explosive growth of per capita income and the increase in living standard.

china's growth is a important factor for all of us. can't say I've looked into any of this;as it's unlikely I will work for either. didn't even think about china's os. 

[Prysin]

Just now, blackadder said:

china's growth is a important factor for all of us. can't say I've looked into any of this;as it's unlikely I will work for either. didn't even think about china's os. 

china is also closely monitored by the media. So any dip in sales figures in china would be reported on very fast.

[Delicieuxz]

28 minutes ago, Prysin said:

The whole study seems utterly flawed from beginning to end. Measuring USAGE vs install base means you have a bunch of people simply not USING their computer.

For those kind of numbers you should look to other social factors, such as large scale sporting events, start-up of new season of hyped TV series and so on. These are the only things that would make masses of people stop using a computer for a while.

14 minutes ago, Prysin said:

i am more inclined to say its just a shitty survey, done in a really shitty way that is not representative of actual market saturation

 

The chart shows market share, not number of people using an OS. If there were a social trend causing people to not use their PC, then all OSes would be used less, but market share would not be affected by it, because the collective market share will always add up to 100%. The chart shows Windows 7 market share increasing, relative to Windows 10 market share.

 

It also isn't a survey, but a continuation of long-term OS analytics by a reputable analytics organization. The results are corroborated in another analytics company's findings, as talked about in the OP article.

 

Here's a the same market share chart, but showing back to 2014:

 

[Prysin]

Just now, Delicieuxz said:

 

The chart shows market share, not number of people using an OS. If there were a social trend causing people to not use their PC, then all OSes would be used less, but market share would not be affected by it, because the collective market share will always add up to 100%. The chart shows Windows 7 market share increasing, relative to Windows 10 market share.

 

It also isn't a survey, but a continuation of long-term OS analytics by a professional organization. The results are corroborated in another analytics company's findings, as talked about in the OP article.

 

Here's a the same market share chart, but showing back to 2014:

 

Please read the OP you yourself posted once more

 

Quote

NetMarketShare measures usage (people actually using the operating system, rather than having it installed), and that isn’t a precise science

 

[Delicieuxz]

6 minutes ago, Prysin said:

Please read the OP you yourself posted once more

I understood it the very first time that I read it, but you have not. The graph is of market share, based on people using the OS. It is not simply a graph of how many people are using each OS, but of the market share of each OS based on usage. It is exactly as I said in my previous post. The graph is of market share, not usage. However, the market share itself is based upon usage.

 

If a social trend were causing people to not use their PCs, then the graph displaying market share of each OS based upon usage would not be affected by it, because each OS listed would be affected equally, and so there would be no change in the market share of each OS.

 

The graph shows Windows 7 usage increasing relative to Windows 10 usage. That does not show the number of users, but the relative market share of the OS, based upon usage.

[Prysin]

16 minutes ago, Delicieuxz said:

I understood it the very first time that I read it, but you have not. The graph is of market share, based on people using the OS. It is not simply a graph of how many people are using each OS, but of the market share of each OS based on usage. It is exactly as I said in my previous post. The graph is of market share, not usage. However, the market share itself is based upon usage.

 

If a social trend were causing people to not use their PCs, then the graph displaying market share of each OS based upon usage would not be affected by it, because each OS listed would be affected equally, and so there would be no change in the market share of each OS.

 

The graph shows Windows 7 usage increasing relative to Windows 10 usage. That does not show the number of users, but the relative market share of the OS, based upon usage.

Well the only reason W7 usage is going up is probs because of businesses who jumped on the "last chance" free upgrade and found out their software (which was written by dyslexic dinosaurs) didnt work with the new OS.
 

[Misanthrope]

2 hours ago, blackadder said:

i bet this has a correlation to apple sales.  

Some, yes but it's not all of the story: another point is that this is simply how it would have behaved from day one if they weren't basically giving away 10 for free and aggressively pushing people to upgrade.

 

That's the main thing here in fact, I'm surprised this didn't happen sooner and in an even more pronounced way. People like free shit and I really thought they were ready for a more direct effort to monetize the platform and push the windows store and advertising within the OS more prominently to be able to afford to stay free but it looks like Nadella didn't got permission to go all in and now things are reverting back to the usual.

[klh2000]

3 hours ago, ThinkWithPortals said:

Finally, someone else who shares my opinion

I also find 8.1 the best. Mine is loaded with so many registry mods, that it is closer to Windows 7, and I like it that way

 

[suicidalfranco]

agree on the 8.1 being the best Windows version.

 I got tired of writing on the feedback app to bring back the "stop download" on the update panel, the amount of ranks i've lost because of W10 auto update giving me 3 whole seconds of latency is just annoying and nerf wracking, after a while of punching the wall my hand start hurting M$, so fuck that pos of an OS 

[FPSwithaWacomTablet]

5 hours ago, Tataffe said:

What bothers me most is the market share of Linux ...

WINE isn't exactly reliable for newer apps, and not a lot of relevant and capable productivity tools (ones that can rival the Windows ecosystem) can be found natively on Linux. I mean LibreOffice is getting there, but there isn't a Linux version of Adobe Suite. etc

 

Same goes for most games, though I see strides being taken with the recent Vulkan API. OpenGL is outdated as heck.

[SurvivorNVL]

If only Linux had more compatibility with software.  Or if MacOS was just not limited to Mac's, and sold as a standalone operating system.  That would be great.

[zMeul]